ADWEC Winter 2011 / 2012ADWEC Winter 2011 / 2012ADWEC Winter 2011 / 2012 ADWEC Winter 2011 / 2012 Electricity & Water Demand Electricity & Water Demand
ForecastsForecasts
MrMr Keith MillerKeith MillerDirector of Planning and Studies
Mohammed Al Hajjiri Einar Al Hareeri
Ab Dh bi W t d El t i it CAb Dh bi W t d El t i it C
Head of Water Demand Forecasting Head of Electricity Demand Forecasting
Abu Dhabi Water and Electricity CompanyAbu Dhabi Water and Electricity Companywww.adwec.aewww.adwec.ae
MEED Arabian Power & Water Summit6th 7th March 2012
© Abu Dhabi Water & Electricity Company | [email protected] | Tel: +971‐2‐694 3816 | Fax: +971‐2‐6425773
6th – 7th March 2012Park Hyatt Hotel, Abu Dhabi, UAE
2011 Electricity Demand Actuals2011 Electricity Demand Actuals
• Emirate of Abu DhabiEmirate of Abu DhabiElectricity Peak Demand : + 800 MW +12%+12%((7 683 MW7 683 MW))((7,683 MW7,683 MW))
Electricity Energy Demand : (MWh) +10%+10%
• Exports (FEWA / SEWA)Exports to Northern Emirates (FEWA / SEWA) : + >300 MW +19%+19%((2 066 MW2 066 MW))((2,066 MW2,066 MW))
Gl b l E i t f Ab Dh bi + E tGl b l E i t f Ab Dh bi + E tGlobal = Emirate of Abu Dhabi + ExportsGlobal = Emirate of Abu Dhabi + Exports
• GlobalGlobal (Emirate of Abu Dhabi + FEWA / SEWA Exports)Electricity Peak Production : + 1200 MW +14%+14%((9,749 MW9,749 MW))
Electricity Energy Demand : (MWh) +13%+13%(56,602,646 MWh (56,602,646 MWh excluding GCC exports excluding GCC exports ))
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Emirate of Abu Dhabi Emirate of Abu Dhabi Electricity Peak Demand (MW)Electricity Peak Demand (MW)Electricity Peak Demand (MW)Electricity Peak Demand (MW)
•• 1990 1990 –– 2011 Average 2011 Average : : 8% p.a.8% p.a.
•• 1990 1990 –– 2006 Average 2006 Average : : 7% p.a. 7% p.a.
Very little ADNOC (Oil GDP) related electricity demand before 2007.Provides a good historichistoric proxy for NonNon--Oil GDPOil GDP’s electricity demand growth.
•• 2007 2007 –– 2011 Average 2011 Average : : 10%10% p.a.p.a.
Electricity demand has grown > 10% in 4 out of 5 years.Post-2006 electricity demand has grown faster than pre-2006.
•• 2008 2008 –– 2011 Average 2011 Average : : 11% p.a.11% p.a.
Abu Dhabi’s Peak Electricity Demand Growth Rate has increased in recent years.Abu Dhabi’s Peak Electricity Demand Growth Rate has increased in recent years.bu ab s ea ect c ty e a d G o t ate as c eased ece t yea sbu ab s ea ect c ty e a d G o t ate as c eased ece t yea s
2011 Abu Dhabi Peak :2011 Abu Dhabi Peak : 7,683 MW7,683 MW2011 Global Peak2011 Global Peak :: 9 749 MW9 749 MW
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Global Peak Electricity Production to exceed Global Peak Electricity Production to exceed 10,000 MW10,000 MW in 2012 in 2012
2011 Global Peak 2011 Global Peak :: 9,749 MW9,749 MW
Electricity Demand Forecasting StructureElectricity Demand Forecasting Structure4 Key Components
1.1. Firm Contracted Exports Firm Contracted Exports (FEWA / SEWA)FEWA / SEWA)Firm Contracted Exports : FEWA / SEWA / FE (~2,066 MW 2011)Excludes non-firm interruptible exports : e.g. ADWEC’s exports to Bahrain August 50 MW / September 2011 100 MW.
4 Key Components
2. ADNOCADNOC (Abu Dhabi National Oil Company) (~500+ MW 2011). Oil & Gas GDPOil & Gas GDP
3.3. IndustryIndustry (~600 MW 2011)Emirates SteelZonesCorpKhalifa Industrial Zone Abu Dhabi (KIZAD)Khalifa Industrial Zone Abu Dhabi (KIZAD).ChemaWEyaat (Abu Dhabi National Chemicals Company).ADBIC (Abu Dhabi Basic Industries Corporation).
NonNon--Oil & GasOil & GasGDPGDP
4.4. Residential / CommercialResidential / Commercial (~5,600 MW 2011)
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( )GovernmentResidential (e.g. Al Raha Beach / Al Reem Island). Commercial Tourism (e.g. Yas Island / Saadiyat Island / Abu Dhabi Airport)
Firm Contacted Exports ForecastFirm Contacted Exports Forecast(FEWA / SEWA) (FEWA / SEWA)
• March 2011H.H. President ordered new investments in the Northern Emirates’ electricity and water sector.
ADWEA provided ADWEC with FEWA / SEWA Export Forecasts to use for planning purposes.
• 2011 ADWEC Peak Exports = 2,066 MWSSimilar in size to :
FEWA capacity ~ 1,300 MWSEWA capacity ~ 2,400 MWFEWA + SEWA ~ 3,700 MW
• 2011 – 2013 ExportsADWEC’ P k E t t N th E i t > 80%ADWEC’s Peak Exports to Northern Emirates > +80%
2013 Peak Exports > 3,800+ MW3,800+ MW and will exceed :
a) Sum of current FEWA + SEWA capacity.a) Sum of current FEWA SEWA capacity.b) Abu Dhabi’s 2001 peak demand (3,723 MW).c) Bahrain’s 2011 Peak Demand (2,812 MW).d) 3+ times larger than maximum GCCIA interconnection (1,200 MW).
•• ADWEC largest exporter of Electricity within GCC.ADWEC largest exporter of Electricity within GCC.5
ADNOC Forecast ADNOC Forecast (Oil & Gas GDP)(Oil & Gas GDP)
Emirate of Abu Dhabi's 2010 GDP (AED million current prices)
308,022Oil GDP49.7%
Non-Oil GDP50.3%
312,294
Oil GDPNon-Oil GDP
Source : Statistics Centre Abu Dhabi (SCAD) 2011 Statistical Yearbook, page 19, Table 1.1.2.
•• ADNOCADNOC accounted for just 6% of ADWEC’s 2011 electricity demand peakADNOC ADNOC accounted for just 6% of ADWEC s 2011 electricity demand peak.
•• ADNOC (ADNOC (Oil & Gas GDP)) has historically generated most of its own electricity (pre-2007).
•• In future ADWEC will supply most ofwill supply most of ADNOCADNOC’s electricity demand.
• Each year ADNOCADNOC provides ADWEC with an Electricity Demand forecast.
Common Forecasting Assumptions(Exports + ADNOC)
20,000
( p )
12,803
13,660 13,989 14,250 14,523 14,83115,176
15,0002014 2015 2016
10,084
12,265
9,749
8,56310,000
eak
MW
Exports
,
Pe ADNOC
6,6297,265 7,265 7,265 7,265 7,265 7,265 7,265 7,265 7,265 7,265
5,000
2011 N ADNOC D dNotes:
02010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2011 Non-ADNOC DemandExports includes F1 & F2 IWPPs' Auxiliaries & Pumping & Losses.ADNOC includes losses.2011 Non-ADNOC includes Emirate of Abu Dhabi's Auxiliaries, Losses, End-User Demands (excluding ADNOC).
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2011 : 9,7492011 : 9,749 MW2015 : 13,6602015 : 13,660 MW +40%+40% from higher ExportsExports / / ADNOCADNOC demands alone (8.8% p.a.)
How to Forecast NonHow to Forecast Non--Oil GDP’s Electricity Demand?Oil GDP’s Electricity Demand?• Exports electricity forecast Known• Exports electricity forecast – Known.
• ADNOC electricity demand forecast – Known.
4 Non-Oil GDP’s electricity demand forecasts developed by ADWEC.
2 Approaches :2 Approaches :
(1) Bottom-Up Projects Based approach( ) p j pp
(i) Projects Based Forecast (ADWEC’s Base Forecast)
(ii) Low Forecast (subset of Projects’ Based Forecast)
(2) Historical Trends approach
(iii) 1990 – 2006 : ~ 7% p.a.
(iv) 2007 – 2011 : ~ 10% p.a.
ADWEC Peak Electricity Demand Forecasts
21 107
21,233
22,920
24,781
21,440
23,120
25,000Northern Emirates Exports / Losses / Pumping / Auxiliaries
ADNOC
Non-ADNOC Demands
17,335
18,043
18,798
16,836
17,792
18,808
19,911
21,107
18,307
19,707
16 244
17,384
19,029
20,145
16,942
20,000Projects Based Forecast
Non-ADNOC 10% p.a. + Common Export / ADNOC Assumptions
Non-ADNOC 7% p.a. + Common Exports / ADNOC Assumptions
Common Assumptions + 2011 Non-ADNOC Demands
2014 2015 2016
12,991
14,164
16,02616,670
,
12,26512,803
13,66013,989 14,250 14,523
14,83115,176
13,290
14,395
15,858
10 791
13,751
15,145
13,226
14,673
16,244
15,39215,000
eak
MW
Low Forecast
10,38510,084
10,579
8,563
9,749
10,791
10,46310,000
Pe Exports
ADNOC
5,000
2011 Non-ADNOC Demand
6,629 7,265 7,265 7,265 7,265 7,265 7,265 7,265 7,265 7,265 7,2650
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Projects Based Forecast (base) 2011
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Projects Based Forecast (base)2011 – 2015 : Abu Dhabi : 11.3% p.a.Global : 13.6% p.a.
2011 Electricity Peak Demands (MW) : Abu Dhabi : 11.6% p.a.Global : 13.9% p.a.
ADWEC Electricity Peak Demand Forecasts (MW)ADWEC Electricity Peak Demand Forecasts (MW)
Low Base High
Global Forecast RangeGlobal Forecast Range2011 : 9,749 MW2011 : 9,749 MW
Low Base HighLow Forecast Projects Based 10% p.a. Non-ADNOC
2012 10,385 10,463 10,7912013 12,991 13,226 13,751, , ,2014 14,164 14,673 15,1452015 15,392 16,244 16,9422016 16,026 17,384 18,3072017 16 670 19 029 19 7072017 16,670 19,029 19,7072018 17,335 20,145 21,2332019 18,043 21,440 22,9202020 18,798 23,120 24,7818, 98 , , 8
Projects Based ForecastProjects Based Forecast2011 – 2015 : Abu Dhabi : 11.3% p.a.Global : 13.6% p.a.
2011 Electricity Peak Demands (MW) : Abu Dhabi : 11.6% p.a.Global : 13.9% p.a.
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2015 – 2020 : 7% - 8% p.a. (similar to long term 1990 – 2011 growth rate of 8% p.a.).
Cumulative Incremental Electricity Peak Demands Post-2011 (Projects Based Forecast)Post 2011 (Projects Based Forecast)
7,000
2011 2015 :2/3rds Exports / ADNOC 8.8%p.a.
6,000
Exports
2011 – 2015 : Abu Dhabi : 11.3% p.a.Global : 13.6% p.a.
4,000
5,000po ts
3,000
MW
ADNOC
2,000Exports
Industry
0
1,000 ADNOCIndustry Residential / Commercial
Residential / Commercial Auxiliaries
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02011-2013 2011-2015
ADWEC Projects Based ForecastPeak Electricity Demand (MW)
31,60432,695
33,73035,000
Global Demand (diversified)
24 583
25,718
26,80027,828
25,43226,299
27,62428,476
29,53730,462
30,000Emirate of Abu Dhabi (diversified)
2011 – 2020 : Abu Dhabi : 9 4% p a
18,243
19,58920,450
21,76522,611
23,66524,583
19,02920,145
21,440
23,12024,077
20,000
25,000
Exports Auxiliaries
Abu Dhabi : 9.4% p.a.Global : 10.1% p.a.
11,79512,691
14,07414,917
15,923
17,2938, 3
13,226
14,673
16,24417,384
15,000 Industry
8,0639,084
10,36010,463
7,6836,885
8,5639,749
10,000ADNOC
0
5,000 Residential / Commercial
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
ADWEC Water Peak Demand Forecastby Region (MIGD)by Region (MIGD)
1 2921,318
1,3401,3621,400
1,500
Global Demand = Emirate of Abu Dhabi System + Northern Emirates Supply
8891
9191
9191
9191
9191
9191
1 1151,141
1,1651,190
1,2151,237
1,259
1,0381,075
1,1071,134
1,156 1,177 1,196 1,2171,243
1,2671,292
1,100
1,200
1,300
56
81
8977
8085
88
828
881914
949981
1,0101,033
1,0551,075
1,0951,115
752
835
978 999
917
800
900
1,000
34
46
56
648
699
770
828752
690
600
700
800
300
400
500 Auxilliaries
Northern Emirates Supply
Western Region
Al Ain
Ab Dh bi
0
100
200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Abu Dhabi
Global Demand
Emirate of Abu Dhabi System (excluding Auxiliaries)Note: The Global System peak differes from the sum of the individual area peaksdue to the difference in demand patterns (the peak occures in different months).
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2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
2011 – 2015 : 8% - 9% p.a. 2015 – 2020 : 3% p.a. 2011 – 2020 : 5% - 6% p.a.
ADWEC Water Peak Demand Forecastsby Sector (MIGD)by Sector (MIGD)
1 2671,292
1,318 1,340 1,3621400
9991,038
1,0751,107
1,134 1,156 1,177 1,196 1,2171,243
1,267
1 086 1,106 1,1261,152
1,1761,202
1,2271,249
1,2711200
752
835
917
978 999
836
890923
959991
1,0201,043
1,066 1,086 ,
800
1000
655705
778690
600Total Northern Emirates Supply (Including Auxiliaries & Losses )
Industrial (including ADNOC)
Agricultural
400
Agricultural
Abu Dhabi Emirate Auxiliaries
Shabiat / Town houses
Villas
Domestic
0
200 Residential / Commercial Mega Projects
Bulk & Other
Emirate of Abu Dhabi (including Auxiliaries)
Global Peak Demand
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2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
2011 – 2015 : 8% - 9% p.a. 2015 – 2020 : 3% p.a. 2011 – 2020 : 5% - 6% p.a.
Summary Summary
2011 Electricity Peak Demand (MW) :
Abu Dhabi : 11.6% p.a.Global : 13.9% p.a.`
ADWEC Winter 2011 / 2012 Peak Demand Forecast Summaryper annum per annum per annum
Electricity Demand Forecast 2011 - 2015 2015 - 2020 2011 - 2020Projects Based Forecast
Emirate of Abu Dhabi 11.3% 8.0% 9.4%Global (including exports) 13.6% 7.3% 10.1%
per annum per annum per annumWater Demand Forecast 2011 - 2015 2015 - 2020 2011 - 2020Most-Likely ForecastMost-Likely Forecast
Emirate of Abu Dhabi 8.0% 3.2% 5.3%Global (including exports) 9.1% 3.0% 5.7%
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Thank YouThank You
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