ADAPTATION ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGETO CLIMATE CHANGETO CLIMATE CHANGETO CLIMATE CHANGE
Needs, Opportunities, & Vulnerability MappingNeeds, Opportunities, & Vulnerability Mapping
EEPSEA, August 2011EEPSEA, August 2011
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O tli f T lkOutline of Talk
•• Overview of Climate Change impactsOverview of Climate Change impacts
•• Economics of adaptation:Economics of adaptation: net benefits, financial requirements & availablefinancial requirements & available funding
•• Reducing cost/burden of adaptation:Reducing cost/burden of adaptation:Role of institutions & ResearchRole of institutions & Research
•• Suggestions on way to move forwardSuggestions on way to move forward2
gg ygg y
Potential Climate Change ImpactsPotential Climate Change ImpactsHealthWeather-related mortalityInfectious diseasesAir-quality respiratory illnessesIndividual well-beingAgricultureCrop yieldsIrrigation demandsPest outbreaks
g
Pest outbreaks
ForestsChange in forest compositionShift geographic range of forestsF t h lth d d ti it
Climate Changes(means, variances, extremes)
Water ResourcesChanges in water supply
Forest health and productivityPest outbreaksTemperature
P i it ti Changes in water supplyWater qualityIncreased competition for water
Coastal AreasE i f b hSea Level Rise
Precipitation
Erosion of beachesInundation of coastal landsCosts to protect coastal communities
Species & Natural Areas
Sea Level Rise
Adapted from EPA b d t ti b Ch l K l t dUCSB Bren School of Environmental Science & Management
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Species & Natural AreasShift in ecological zonesLoss of habitat and species
based on presentation by Charles Kolstad
Worldwide...75% of the economic losses (1980-2005) are related to hydro-meteorological hazardsare related to hydro meteorological hazards
Slides 0.4%
i d
Wild Fires 2.45%
Flood 28%
Windstorm 38%
Extreme Temperature
1.8%E th k
Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED
Drought5%
Earthquake24%
Tsunami Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database -www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels -Belgium
1%
Maryam Golnaraghi World Meteorological Organization
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Maryam Golnaraghi, World Meteorological Organization
…and these economic losses are rising over timeg
GeologicalBillions of USD per decade495
450
500
Geological
Hydrometeorological
Billions of USD per decade
345
300
350
400
160
103150
200
250
4 11 1424
47
88103
50
100
150
Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database -
d t t U i ité C th li
056-65 66-75 76-85 86-95 96-05 decade
Maryam Golnaraghi World Meteorological Organization
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www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium
Maryam Golnaraghi, World Meteorological Organization
In Asia, increasing weather disturbances are felt everywhereare felt everywhere
6Perez, Rosa (2006)
• Between 1980 and 2005: -Asia accounts for about 90% of those affected by natural disasters worldwide (>50% of economic losses).)
• IPCC, 2001: A 40-cm sea level rise by 2080 could displace asdisplace as
many as 21 million people in Southeast Asia
• A 2007 World Bank study on sea level rise
60M people in developing countries of the world will be di l d b 1 SLR f Vi t 11% f itdisplaced by 1 m SLR, for Vietnam 11% of its
population will have to relocate.
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Strategies to deal with climate change risks
• Climate Change Mitigation and Climate Change Adaptationare two complementary risk management strategies:
Global Climate Change
are two complementary risk management strategies:
Global Climate Change
MITIGATION ADAPTATION
Greenhouse Climate change
MITIGATION ADAPTATION
gas emissionsg
impacts
• Reduce magnitude of global warming • Reduce greenhouse gas emissions
• Reduce vulnerability to CC impacts• Reduce human and material losses
8(Laganda, Gernoit, UNDP.2008)
Adaptation MeasuresAdaptation Measures
• technological—building of river and sea dykes; y ;
• behavioural—changes in food and recreational choices;recreational choices;
• managerial—changing cropping patterns or choice of crops; and
• policy—imposing new planning• policy—imposing new planning regulations.
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• Examples of Adaptation Measures in Agriculture
10Adaptation measures in Agriculture (source: IPCC/WG II, 2007)
Adaptation measures/strategies of households for climate-Adaptation measures/strategies of households for climaterelated disasters, Philippines, Predo (2008)
Adaptation Measure/Strategy*
Item Frequency Percent p gy
Relocate residence to safe place permanently 15 13.8 Transfer to evacuation area temporarily 43 39.4 Restructure housing unit 41 37 6Restructure housing unit 41 37.6Build stone breakwaters 17 15.6 Improve dike system or canal near residence 21 19.3 Ch l d fi di i 3 2 8Change land use to fit new condition 3 2.8Change livelihood and sources of income 5 4.6 Prepare household needs and safety precautions 14 12.8
*Multiple response
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Stern Report: Adaptation makes economic sense
12Stern Review, 2006
Adaptation Pays… d p o ys
• Global Vulnerability Assessment (GVA) of coastal communities in several countries shows…
that coastal adaptation could reduce the number of people at risk from flooding by almost 90% atof people at risk from flooding by almost 90% at an annual cost of around 0.06 percent of the GDP
• For agriculture—studies show that adaptation could result in avoided yield losses of as much as 30%.
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How much do developing countries’ need for d t ti ?adaptation?
• The World Bank estimates that between USD 10–40 billion• The World Bank estimates that between USD 10 40 billion will be needed to assist developing countries for new infrastructure alone.
• The UNDP Human Development report estimated that developing countries would need around USD 86 billion per p g pyear for adaptation by 2015, a value that corresponds to about 0.2% of rich nations’ GDPs
• Costs of adaptation: USD 50 bn/yr (Oxfam) (Tamura, 2007)
– Scaling up urgent adaptation needsScaling up urgent adaptation needs– Scaling up NGO community-based initiatives
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How much funds are available for adaptation?
1.0 The UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol Funds
p
Status as of April 2007(Tamura K 2007)
Type of commit’t Total funds mobilized
1.0 The UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol Funds
(Tamura, K. 2007) mobilized1. Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF)
voluntary US$62.1m
2. Least Developed Countries Fund (LDC Fund)
voluntary US$115.8m
3 S i P i i Ad i l US$503. Strategic Priority on Adaptation (SPA-GEF Trust Fund)
voluntary US$50m
4. Adaptation Fund A 2% levy on Best estimate of4. Adaptation Fund A 2% levy on CDM projects
Best estimate of US$450m by 2012
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2.0 Bilateral and multilateral channels: WB, ADB, UNEP, UNDP,
• In August 2007: Rockefeller Foundation announced a $70 million
CIDA, DFID, IFAD, OXFAM, etc.
• In August 2007: Rockefeller Foundation announced a $70 million program on "climate-change resilience" for developing countries.
• September, 2008: thru the World Bank, 10 leading industrialized nations -- including the United States, Japan and the UK -- have pledged a total of $6 1 billion as "Climate Investment Funds"pledged a total of $6.1 billion as Climate Investment Funds .
• DFID is a major player supporting adaptation programs in Africa and probably in Asia and Latin America soonprobably in Asia and Latin America, soon.
• Different Aid and development agencies are also supporting climate adaptation initiativesadaptation initiatives.
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Fact: the available funds account for a very small percentage of what developing countries would
need for adaptation (1%-2%)
CHALLENGE: Find ways to reduce the burden of adaptationburden of adaptation.
•• Risk SharingRisk Sharing:: Community-based adaptation initiatives integrated in disaster management
•• Risk TransferRisk Transfer:: weather-index based micro-insurance schemes
• Research to identify efficient/cost effective adaptation options in vulnerable sectors (e.g. agriculture, coastal communities, etc)
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ResearchResearch
• Economic analysis of adaptation options• Economic analysis of adaptation options
• Understanding determinants of autonomous adaptation and level of planned adaptation requiredplanned adaptation required
• How to enhancing adaptive capacity of households, communities and local government unitsand local government units
• Agriculture: seeds more resistant to droughts and climate variations in generalin general
• Health: How to deal with massive spread of diseases that extreme climate change may bring aboutclimate change may bring about
• Coastal: assessment of infrastructure and/or relocation of people and resources from coastal zones vulnerable to increased flooding
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and resources from coastal zones vulnerable to increased flooding, hurricanes, and others.
Bottom line
• There are some funds available from the international sources that countries should takeinternational sources that countries should take advantage of.
• Still—internationally sourced-adaptation funds are limited relative to needs more so in the faceare limited relative to needs, more so in the face of the on-going global financial crisis.
• Countries must find ways to reduce burden of adaptation and use the limited adaptation fundsadaptation and use the limited adaptation funds efficiently.
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Vulnerability mapping as a tool
• Vulnerability assessment at sub-national levelsnational levels
• Socio-economic dimension of vulnerability assessment
P bli di i & R h• Public discussions & Research …appropriate CC-policies
CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY MAPPING
Climatic Hazards
Vulnerability to
CLIMATE CHANGE
IPCC FRAMEWORK
Climatic Hazards
Tropical Cyclones
Drought Flood
Landslide Sea level rise
Sensitivity
Population Extent ofPopulation Density
Extent of Protected Area
Adaptive Capacity
SocioeconomisSocioeconomis• Human Development Index (Income, Longevity, Education) • Poverty Incidence• Inequality• Inequality
TechnologyTechnology• Electricity Coverage• Extent of Irrigation
InfrastructureInfrastructure• Road Density• Communication
Adaptive CapacityAdaptive Capacity
l d 0 50
SOCIO ECONOMICS
Human Development Index
Standard of Living
0.50
1/30 50SOCIO-ECONOMICSLongevity
Education
1/3
1/3
0.50
Poverty Incidence 0.28
I I lit 0 22ADAPTIVE aj
TECHNOLOGY
Income Inequality 0.22
Electricity Coverage 0.53
CAPACITY
0.25
aj
TECHNOLOGY
Extent of Irrigation 0.47
0.25
INFRASTRUCTURERoad Density 0.50
Communication 0.50
0.25
Vulnerability, Vj = (1/3) ej + (1/3) sj + (1/3) aj
CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY MAPPING, 2009
LaosLegendCli t Ch V l bilit
Vulnerability
Climatic HazardsPhilippinesThailand
Laos
Vietnam
Climate Change Vulnerability0.00 - 0.06
0.06 - 0.11
0.11 - 0.15
0.15 - 0.20
0.20 - 0.25to
CLIMATE CHANGECambodia
0.20 0.25
0.25 - 0.31
0.31 - 0.39
0.39 - 0.49
0.49 - 0.66
0.66 - 1.00
Malaysia
Indonesia® IPCC FRAMEWORK ®0 550 1,100275 Kilometers
SEA Mapping shows: • Climate Hotspots:
Bi t f Phili i C b di & L PDR– Big parts of Philippines; Cambodia & Lao PDR – Mekong River Delta– Bangkok– Bangkok– West Sumatra, South Sumatra, Western Java, and
Eastern Java of Indonesia
• Adaptive capacity is generally critical in reducing• Adaptive capacity is generally critical in reducing vulnerability
• Key cities in SEA are vulnerable!
Vulnerability Components ComparisonComparison
Hazards dominate Sensitivity dominates Low Adaptive capacity dominatescapacity dominates
Vietnam Indonesia Cambodia
1. Manila2 Benguet
Top 10 most vu lnerable prov inces
• Climate hazards exposure2. Benguet3. Batanes4. Ilocos
Sur5. Rizal
Climate hazards exposure accounts for 75% - 90% for most places
Batanes(3)
6. Bataan7. Batangas8. Bulacan9. Abra10 Albay
• For Manila—sensitivity also plays a dominant role
Legend
0.46
10. Albay
• For Batanes, exposure+ecological
Albay
EXPOSURE
ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
SENSITIVITY (10)
exposure+ecological sensitivity are critical.
AbBulacan(8)Abra
Ilocos SurRizal
BataanManila
(1)(4)
(5)(6)
(8)(9)
BenguetBatangas(2) (7)
Mapping as a decision making tool• Visualization aid Vulnerable/hot spots;
• It enables us …to bring the socioeconomic dimensions in vulnerability assessment
• Allows downscaling of Vulnerability Assessment: sub-national levels (590 provinces/districts)
• Facilitates discussions of major stakeholders• Media Citations National Debate/discussions Local government interests Blog discussions on the methods/areas for improvement
• Potential: Sub-national Decision Support system (Pilot testing)
Thank you,Thank you, comments are most welcome.
Herminia A. FranciscoArief Yusuf Anshory
([email protected]; [email protected])
Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia
SWEDISH INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT COOPERATION AGENCYSida Canadian International Development Agency
Agence Canadienne de Développment International
Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia