12th Concertation meeting Nov. 98
AC 226/ OPTIMUMProject
OUTLINEProject presentationObjectives for OPTIMUMPlanned work and AchievementsAnalyse 6 business casesWorkshop and Delphi surveyRisk assessment of market and technologiesGuidelinesOPTIMUM guidelinesACTS guidelinesEURESCOM guidelines
OPTIMUM PartnerTELENOR RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT,, NorwayINTELLSERVE LTD, Greece JVH INTERNATIONAL, BelgiumFIRMA H. DANIELSEN, NorwayFRANCE TELECOM, FranceDASSAULT ELECTRONIQUE, FranceARISTEL, FranceELIOS, FranceM3G, FranceSYSTEMES G, FranceENST B, FranceCENTRO STUDI E LABORATORI TELECOMUNICAZIONI SPA, ItalyUNIVERSIDADE DE AVEIRO, Portugal PLURICOM, PortugalNOKIA CORPORATION, FinlandTELECOM FINLAND, FinlandHELSINKI TELEPHONE CORPORATION, FinlandKONINKLIJKE PTT NETHERLAND NV, The Netherlands TELE DENMARK, DenmarkDEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG, GermanyDATTEL AS, Czech Republic
OPTIMUM OBJECTIVEContribution to guidelines and recommendations for the introduction of advanced multimedia communications networks and services based on tech-evaluation of business cases.The business cases are based on inputs from ACTS field trials and projects, expertise of specialised SMEs and market and technology evolution.Business cases are evaluated with the Tool and methodology from R2087/ TITAN and OPTIMUM project
Role of OPTIMUM
The OPTIMUM Information FlowNPVIRRPayback PeriodEconomic InputsCash flows, Profit & loss accountsGeometric ModelServicesArchitecturesYear 0Year 1Year nYear m. . .Demand for the Telecommunications ServicesDBRevenuesOA&MCostsLife Cycle CostFirst Installed CostInvestmentsRisk Assessment
Techno-Economic Evaluation ProcessCase definitionService parametersArchitecture, dimensioningCost informationModelling and calculation of resultsAnalysis of results
OPTIMUM BUSINESS CASESSMEs located in an industrial parkSMEs with a common sectorial profile spread in a wide geographical areaTele-medicineTele-learningCompetitive Access ProviderEconomics of Multimedia Service Upgrades
Business Case 6Economics of Multimedia Service UpgradesEvaluates the viability of fast access to the Internet and to other information sourcesAccess speed from 64kbit/s up to 10Mbit/s Two services evaluated:Basic service (non-real time applications)Enhanced service (real time applications included)Three environments modelled:Telephone operator network using advanced digital line coding, e.g. ADSLCable television network using cable modemsLMDS radio accessSeveral service penetration scenarios evaluated10%, 20%*, 30% or 40% final penetrationRisk analysis performed on most sensitive and uncertain components:Price of the access technology, service take rate, revenue per customer*Default for basic results
Key Results of Business Case 601/23/9812Techno-Economics of Multimedia Networks* ISDN not fully comparable, since the service is not the same.NPV expressed in kECUs (discounted at 5%)Inv/sub = Total discounted investment divided by the number of connected subscribers at year 2007
Sheet: Assumptions&Basics
Sheet: BasicTable
Sheet: BasicTable (old)
Sheet: CashBalanceData
Sheet: CashBalanceChart
Sheet: InvPerUser
Sheet: InvPerUserChart
Sheet: SensitivityDataEnhServ
Sheet: RevenueSensChart
Sheet: PenetSensChart
Sheet: InvPerUserChart (2)
ISDN
ADSL
HFC
LMDS
ServiceEB
6.4
20.0
20.0
20.0
Tariff multiplier
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
Service scenario
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
NPV
1032028.1424781159
481112.2393097314
-649659.9464700017
2305503.8772580987
IRR
0.1992982262263832
0.09393427092103594
0.02549704420263426
0.2646552731135307
RestValue
866299.3799160854
501209.1417890596
918583.2823940441
1100323.766649825
TotalDiscountedRunningCost
5218116.644645393
6336257.156117507
5897202.9493409665
5298354.645851167
TotalDiscountedInvestment
2403678.8574635736
4036298.040774186
5862355.949933044
3617613.3216842813
RunningCostToInvestmentRatio
2.170887607736289
1.5698189509568958
1.005944197129197
1.4645994954995272
InvestmentPerConnectedCustomer
359.9281101654132
591.5861368268656
793.3599065728771
539.7251382286307
DiscInvPerConnectedCustomer
309.9521415169018
520.4768589006043
755.9453191403022
466.48785579423355
TotalDiscountedRevenue
8121990.973722456
1.054596850126133E7
1.054596850126133E7
1.054596850126133E7
Basic service
Enhanced service
NPV
IRR
Inv/sub
NPV
IRR
Inv/sub
-
-
-
ADSL
480.0
0.09393427092103594
0.15172712225368742
610.0
HFC
-650.0
0.02549704420263426
0.03046530373769203
920.0
LMDS
2310.0
0.2646552731135307
0.12949445085141637
720.0
Basic service
Enhanced service
IRR
NPV
Inv/sub
IRR
NPV
Inv/sub
-
-
-
ADSL
HFC
0.05870013299982475
LMDS
0.1808707970234355
ISDN
-453.93086687685513
-647.355306054632
-760.3015587299186
-803.2743122388102
-745.3713046934475
-602.3258768275083
-396.2115093926027
-149.08259053069375
123.73410466829012
395.74560543097766
ADSL
-1055.1222842539196
-1247.8440041293436
-1511.5242872677184
-1443.312740224052
-1362.3344102747362
-1062.2421795206192
-773.4276649710687
-365.15113104904026
38.46196865469957
411.0148755103261
HFC
-4336.231381410539
-4287.428200350067
-4104.7669022745185
-3766.0878300361296
-3323.1990126552732
-2788.2701368750722
-2190.1207243546023
-1567.1375891476173
-944.7157674491766
-336.0918712221093
LMDS
-783.4102378245052
-940.4851473117304
-1034.7478915835113
-1024.5753167877722
-909.2542096169384
-626.1987992747934
-195.6121078065856
333.27291688239865
908.613546387692
1494.363652301879
-453930.86687685514
-647355.3060546321
-760301.5587299186
-803274.3122388102
-745371.3046934475
-602325.8768275083
-396211.5093926027
-149082.59053069376
123734.10466829012
395745.60543097765
-1055122.2842539195
-1247844.0041293437
-1511524.2872677185
-1443312.740224052
-1362334.4102747361
-1062242.179520619
-773427.6649710687
-365151.13104904024
38461.968654699565
411014.87551032606
-4336231.381410539
-4287428.200350067
-4104766.9022745187
-3766087.83003613
-3323199.012655273
-2788270.136875072
-2190120.7243546024
-1567137.5891476173
-944715.7674491766
-336091.8712221093
-783410.2378245052
-940485.1473117304
-1034747.8915835114
-1024575.3167877721
-909254.2096169384
-626198.7992747934
-195612.1078065856
333272.91688239865
908613.5463876921
1494363.6523018791
1998.0
1998.0
1998.0
1998.0
1999.0
1999.0
1999.0
1999.0
2000.0
2000.0
2000.0
2000.0
2001.0
2001.0
2001.0
2001.0
2002.0
2002.0
2002.0
2002.0
2003.0
2003.0
2003.0
2003.0
2004.0
2004.0
2004.0
2004.0
2005.0
2005.0
2005.0
2005.0
2006.0
2006.0
2006.0
2006.0
2007.0
2007.0
2007.0
2007.0
-453.93086687685513
-894.7369975738062
-4175.846094730425
-1558.1316410166849
-647.355306054632
-1108.2312021070593
-4113.816238454917
-1843.1737800924584
-760.3015587299186
-1334.8237150390755
-4220.906298121962
-1993.5111889547368
-803.2743122388102
-1232.4916439724275
-3784.016363253217
-2002.4788514190043
-745.3713046934475
-954.8694050224511
-3390.5281943473433
-1761.0532021111892
-602.3258768275083
-483.12840814529966
-2621.809855883112
-1410.1846109862036
-396.2115093926027
-9.510174561902415
-2024.1291649755233
-887.4645284235341
-149.08259053069375
561.170268496464
-1217.1404941674261
-192.19423747806601
123.73410466829012
1121.4409370678436
-437.43945138764286
515.9922153943288
395.74560543097766
1680.0114593150247
344.27852479710583
1260.739460989852
ISDN
617.6497528991557
579.4725904669217
516.4267296318988
468.1946875313627
424.7853470246029
395.6145629562973
378.7205175436913
369.3859764706442
363.304630263631
359.9281101654133
ADSL
1498.5387363573122
1180.4971927221452
1034.3616860913855
847.9251638695583
757.0955789884473
676.1333875745012
643.683755782266
615.585043833157
600.05329409644
591.5861368268656
HFC
5660.822807176434
3433.073615890674
2222.9534835126924
1561.7277500295784
1203.7470090013585
1005.4115241745492
897.5648046780987
839.2027056019655
807.704931406263
790.7777015438636
LMDS
1121.6935152055128
918.5957432559077
785.3781384266347
695.5853224893934
638.7193705542817
597.6491936014648
571.3377488764281
555.0785580117176
545.3587177607603
539.7251382286307
Basic case
ISDN
617.6497528991557
579.4725904669217
516.4267296318988
468.1946875313627
424.7853470246029
395.6145629562973
378.7205175436913
369.3859764706442
363.304630263631
359.9281101654133
ADSL
HFC
5660.822807176434
3433.073615890674
2222.9534835126924
1561.7277500295784
1203.7470090013585
1005.4115241745492
897.5648046780987
839.2027056019655
807.704931406263
790.7777015438636
LMDS
1121.6935152055128
918.5957432559077
785.3781384266347
695.5853224893934
638.7193705542817
597.6491936014648
571.3377488764281
555.0785580117176
545.3587177607603
539.7251382286307
Enhanced case
ISDN
617.6497528991557
579.4725904669217
516.4267296318988
468.1946875313627
424.7853470246029
395.6145629562973
378.7205175436913
369.3859764706442
363.304630263631
359.9281101654133
ADSL
1575.8207864661672
1307.4550911499525
1157.6786171879448
984.7153176468252
871.6543099846873
786.2817263485715
750.9439909998708
724.4408721768372
710.476388421895
699.1329622865898
HFC
5738.10485728529
3534.9206802687345
2482.479238376648
1772.3505848503198
1429.513162143519
1196.4603764905435
1106.4321843706512
1038.4471686959107
1004.3041886916884
982.2559981624088
LMDS
2389.9313021913063
1807.6093157398122
1415.3271154712925
1183.3392426342596
1024.2638404577392
942.564970354672
895.1572085918332
860.0482850955743
842.9338360273302
829.5491057679476
1998.0
1998.0
1998.0
1998.0
1999.0
1999.0
1999.0
1999.0
2000.0
2000.0
2000.0
2000.0
2001.0
2001.0
2001.0
2001.0
2002.0
2002.0
2002.0
2002.0
2003.0
2003.0
2003.0
2003.0
2004.0
2004.0
2004.0
2004.0
2005.0
2005.0
2005.0
2005.0
2006.0
2006.0
2006.0
2006.0
2007.0
2007.0
2007.0
2007.0
617.6497528991557
1575.8207864661672
5738.10485728529
2389.9313021913063
579.4725904669217
1307.4550911499525
3534.9206802687345
1807.6093157398122
516.4267296318988
1157.6786171879448
2482.479238376648
1415.3271154712925
468.1946875313627
984.7153176468252
1772.3505848503198
1183.3392426342596
424.7853470246029
871.6543099846873
1429.513162143519
1024.2638404577392
395.6145629562973
786.2817263485715
1196.4603764905435
942.564970354672
378.7205175436913
750.9439909998708
1106.4321843706512
895.1572085918332
369.3859764706442
724.4408721768372
1038.4471686959107
860.0482850955743
363.304630263631
710.476388421895
1004.3041886916884
842.9338360273302
359.9281101654133
699.1329622865898
982.2559981624088
829.5491057679476
Revenue sensitivity
Reveneue
ISDN
-0.288157937314575
-0.187691082350116
-0.0665120300733906
0.0688265889211471
0.211433316413168
0.361268999742315
0.524129272381833
0.70991387496877
0.933890761550283
1.22166410474048
1.62186507468112
ADSL
-0.426566669311383
-0.290377914732305
-0.134773453523021
0.00530221973325754
0.125805837596236
0.234651679103408
0.338082116941696
0.440288126207888
0.544351940542256
0.65286139733158
0.768280248094961
HFC
-0.249086593737816
-0.168508128746773
-0.0988046241985512
-0.0392633917625198
0.0125463330033199
0.0587001329998248
0.100680787704441
0.139521341008558
0.175952254582999
0.210503265020907
0.243568948892625
LMDS
-0.190582634397472
-0.113482859829805
-0.0359548365065166
0.0393580000127076
0.111555439393924
0.180870797023436
0.247991073555786
0.313695306705486
0.378721125693883
0.443734602264158
0.509337390906512
Penetration sensitivity
Penetration
ISDN
0.0825297110628526
0.234167198961877
0.361268999742315
0.47380735187835
0.578455579747533
0.657578258491267
0.744660213431925
ADSL
0.10729369470715
0.181925566210484
0.234651679103408
0.257405279614795
0.274319996018785
0.298817528701402
0.306395734116559
HFC
-0.056823617663008
0.00745718319532901
0.0587001329998248
0.09926052111069569
0.133892774733331
0.168076968478936
0.195125040428702
LMDS
0.112797775384061
0.149014098637781
0.180870797023436
0.186457536888593
0.198655557278962
0.205136328323988
0.210793254348755
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
-0.288157937314575
-0.426566669311383
-0.249086593737816
-0.190582634397472
-0.187691082350116
-0.290377914732305
-0.168508128746773
-0.113482859829805
-0.0665120300733906
-0.134773453523021
-0.0988046241985512
-0.0359548365065166
0.0688265889211471
0.00530221973325754
-0.0392633917625198
0.0393580000127076
0.211433316413168
0.125805837596236
0.0125463330033199
0.111555439393924
0.361268999742315
0.234651679103408
0.0587001329998248
0.180870797023436
0.524129272381833
0.338082116941696
0.100680787704441
0.247991073555786
0.70991387496877
0.440288126207888
0.139521341008558
0.313695306705486
0.933890761550283
0.544351940542256
0.175952254582999
0.378721125693883
1.22166410474048
0.65286139733158
0.210503265020907
0.443734602264158
1.62186507468112
0.768280248094961
0.243568948892625
0.509337390906512
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.35
0.35
0.35
0.35
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.0825297110628526
0.10729369470715
-0.056823617663008
0.112797775384061
0.234167198961877
0.181925566210484
0.00745718319532901
0.149014098637781
0.361268999742315
0.234651679103408
0.0587001329998248
0.180870797023436
0.47380735187835
0.257405279614795
0.09926052111069569
0.186457536888593
0.578455579747533
0.274319996018785
0.133892774733331
0.198655557278962
0.657578258491267
0.298817528701402
0.168076968478936
0.205136328323988
0.744660213431925
0.306395734116559
0.195125040428702
0.210793254348755
1998.0
1998.0
1998.0
1999.0
1999.0
1999.0
2000.0
2000.0
2000.0
2001.0
2001.0
2001.0
2002.0
2002.0
2002.0
2003.0
2003.0
2003.0
2004.0
2004.0
2004.0
2005.0
2005.0
2005.0
2006.0
2006.0
2006.0
2007.0
2007.0
2007.0
1575.8207864661672
5738.10485728529
2389.9313021913063
1307.4550911499525
3534.9206802687345
1807.6093157398122
1157.6786171879448
2482.479238376648
1415.3271154712925
984.7153176468252
1772.3505848503198
1183.3392426342596
871.6543099846873
1429.513162143519
1024.2638404577392
786.2817263485715
1196.4603764905435
942.564970354672
750.9439909998708
1106.4321843706512
895.1572085918332
724.4408721768372
1038.4471686959107
860.0482850955743
710.476388421895
1004.3041886916884
842.9338360273302
699.1329622865898
982.2559981624088
829.5491057679476
Key Results of Business Case 601/23/9812Techno-Economics of Multimedia Networks
Risks in Business Case 6The most important variable regarding the risk influence is the monthly revenue per customer. A reduction of 30% or more on the revenue has a dramatic influence on the NPV.The ranking of the analysed variables regarding risk influence is:Monthly revenue per customerLevel of competitionService penetrationComponent price (including nominal price and price trend)The results are similar for all technologies and for both the basic service and the enhanced service.
Risks in Business Case 6
Probability of yielding a positive NPV for different technologies
Basic service
Enhanced service
ISDN case
87 %
N/A
ADSL case
67 %
80 %
HFC case
35 %
39 %
LMDS case
90 %
83 %
BC5 - Competitive Access ProviderTE evaluation of the real access network project in an East European countryBased on the first license for a telecommunication company in the Czech Republic next to the SPT TelecomLicense valid for a defined area in the centre of PragueVery competitive conditionsResults after the second year of realisation - comparison with original assumptionsInfluenced by limited financial sourcesdelay in the constructionpart of investigations shifted to the year 1998some changes in the project
BC5 - Competitive Access ProviderObject of HOST
BC5 - Competitive Access ProviderComparison of the first and second TE evaluation
Sheet: Graf1
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Sheet: List3
Sheet: List4
Sheet: List5
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Sheet: List7
Sheet: List8
Sheet: List9
Sheet: List10
Sheet: List11
Sheet: List12
Sheet: List13
Sheet: List14
Sheet: List15
Sheet: List16
1996.0
1996.0
1997.0
1997.0
1998.0
1998.0
1999.0
1999.0
2000.0
2000.0
2001.0
2001.0
2002.0
2002.0
2003.0
2003.0
2004.0
2004.0
2005.0
2005.0
4278452.12296977
4266441.00818881
6002620.55716803
3051022.0959603
124129.971194009
1487274.56066958
51456.1781597765
54353.1889413174
4331.53925744254
4260.80759917514
985.187285434067
967.648080505568
989.532477455324
985.465186776759
1005.74916892927
1004.81709471172
1025.04521277088
1024.83154265384
1045.35850051316
1045.30941185597
Original
Modified
NPV [ECU]
527279.840880224
1375523.06617189
NPV Orig
4852765.17923645
4162875.32879218
3523043.47353627
2929106.26594919
2377290.22564717
1864171.4519214
1386639.86372397
941867.419617458
527279.840880224
140531.421954706
-220517.434856971
IRR
0.163811408626498
0.157760106684873
NPV Act. 1997
3896768.0559388
3313442.22013855
2773105.92910843
2272141.22100064
1807271.619262
1375526.64906529
974210.357665802
600873.352973516
253287.93749106
-70574.0309996539
-372560.873763393
2.0
Investments Orig.
4278452.12296977
6002620.55716803
124129.971194009
51456.1781597765
4331.53925744254
985.187285434067
989.532477455324
1005.74916892927
1025.04521277088
1045.35850051316
Running Costs
358580.475083236
646638.392110679
756731.512308537
792454.803871867
837243.026198706
890061.215193992
951074.166806992
1020516.20204525
1099023.58843884
1187501.33926252
Revenues Orig.
351855.477820342
1270410.68038445
2798312.37800315
3787499.35679524
4170142.46590008
4352045.45656066
4465093.44312794
4545408.81619471
4604818.8823769
4648115.05674204
Cash Flows Orig.
-4285177.12023266
-5378848.26889426
1917450.89450061
2943588.3747636
3328567.90044393
3460999.05408123
3513029.7438435
3523886.86498053
3504770.24872529
3459568.35897901
Retained Cash Flows
-4170450.74516842
-5312717.88384693
1434122.91089818
2090340.41440845
2343683.9292617
2425810.05253756
2457585.58230964
2464241.30571621
2452612.61647719
2425072.30946767
Cash Balance Orig.
-4285177.12023266
-9664025.38912692
-7746574.49462632
-4802986.11986272
-1474418.21941879
1986580.83466244
5499610.57850594
9023497.44348647
1.25282676922118E7
1.59878360511908E7
Depreciations
287445.195209517
793337.378138718
802278.343637107
807229.269961471
807555.923849495
807653.468177767
807752.19546492
807852.718599912
807955.211250627
808059.74437353
Profits Orig.
-294170.192472411
-169565.089864951
1239302.52205751
2187815.2829619
2525343.51585188
2654330.7731889
2706267.08085603
2717039.89554955
2697840.08268743
2652553.97310599
4.0
Investments Act.1997
4266441.00818881
3051022.0959603
1487274.56066958
54353.1889413174
4260.80759917514
967.648080505568
985.465186776759
1004.81709471172
1024.83154265384
1045.30941185597
Running Costs
358460.363935426
589486.675192563
672019.269937448
730915.27600552
777179.979997046
830953.467073992
892595.814522922
962449.860577288
1041225.64975967
1129877.63745623
Revenues Act. 1997
351805.961021472
997048.455832706
2228078.78175043
3073346.95134712
3479371.72707592
3707056.70659228
3843902.93340956
3944243.75943376
4019576.50857063
4074253.79690242
Cash Flows Act. 1997
-4273095.41110277
-2643460.31532016
68784.9511434021
2288078.48640028
2697930.9394797
2875135.59143779
2950321.65369987
2980789.08176176
2977326.02726831
2943330.85003433
Retained Cash Flows
-4158552.71232677
-2603195.92585142
-285082.108601839
1629574.90186887
1899246.94271975
2008663.81289999
2054558.78653823
2073175.55625909
2071095.2553506
2050390.97782959
Cash Balance Act. 1997
-4273095.41110277
-6916555.72642293
-6847770.77527953
-4559692.28887924
-1861761.34939954
1013374.24203824
3963695.89573811
6944484.97749987
9921811.00476818
1.28651418548025E7
Depreciations
287044.824716819
510803.804918967
648708.076568773
653960.94577388
654284.063078991
654380.730447016
654479.254369635
654579.730900916
654682.212868125
654786.743536596
Profits Act. 1997
-293699.227630772
-103242.024278824
907351.435244209
1688470.72956772
2047907.68399989
2221722.50907128
2296827.86451701
2327214.16795556
2323668.64594284
2289589.41590959
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.07
0.07
0.08
0.08
0.09
0.09
0.1
0.1
0.11
0.11
0.12
0.12
0.13
0.13
0.14
0.14
0.15
0.15
0.16
0.16
0.17
0.17
4852765.17923645
3896768.0559388
4162875.32879218
3313442.22013855
3523043.47353627
2773105.92910843
2929106.26594919
2272141.22100064
2377290.22564717
1807271.619262
1864171.4519214
1375526.64906529
1386639.86372397
974210.357665802
941867.419617458
600873.352973516
527279.840880224
253287.93749106
140531.421954706
-70574.0309996539
-220517.434856971
-372560.873763393
0.07
0.07
0.08
0.08
0.09
0.09
0.1
0.1
0.11
0.11
0.12
0.12
0.13
0.13
0.14
0.14
0.15
0.15
0.16
0.16
0.17
0.17
4852765.17923645
3896768.0559388
4162875.32879218
3313442.22013855
3523043.47353627
2773105.92910843
2929106.26594919
2272141.22100064
2377290.22564717
1807271.619262
1864171.4519214
1375526.64906529
1386639.86372397
974210.357665802
941867.419617458
600873.352973516
527279.840880224
253287.93749106
140531.421954706
-70574.0309996539
-220517.434856971
-372560.873763393
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Sheet: Graf2
Sheet: List1
Sheet: List2
Sheet: List3
Sheet: List4
Sheet: List5
Sheet: List6
Sheet: List7
Sheet: List8
Sheet: List9
Sheet: List10
Sheet: List11
Sheet: List12
Sheet: List13
Sheet: List14
Sheet: List15
Sheet: List16
1996.0
1996.0
1997.0
1997.0
1998.0
1998.0
1999.0
1999.0
2000.0
2000.0
2001.0
2001.0
2002.0
2002.0
2003.0
2003.0
2004.0
2004.0
2005.0
2005.0
-4285177.12023266
-4273095.41110277
-5378848.26889426
-2643460.31532016
1917450.89450061
68784.9511434021
2943588.3747636
2288078.48640028
3328567.90044393
2697930.9394797
3460999.05408123
2875135.59143779
3513029.7438435
2950321.65369987
3523886.86498053
2980789.08176176
3504770.24872529
2977326.02726831
3459568.35897901
2943330.85003433
Original
Modified
NPV [ECU]
527279.840880224
1375523.06617189
NPV Orig
4852765.17923645
4162875.32879218
3523043.47353627
2929106.26594919
2377290.22564717
1864171.4519214
1386639.86372397
941867.419617458
527279.840880224
140531.421954706
-220517.434856971
IRR
0.163811408626498
0.157760106684873
NPV Act. 1997
3896768.0559388
3313442.22013855
2773105.92910843
2272141.22100064
1807271.619262
1375526.64906529
974210.357665802
600873.352973516
253287.93749106
-70574.0309996539
-372560.873763393
2.0
Investments Orig.
4278452.12296977
6002620.55716803
124129.971194009
51456.1781597765
4331.53925744254
985.187285434067
989.532477455324
1005.74916892927
1025.04521277088
1045.35850051316
Running Costs
358580.475083236
646638.392110679
756731.512308537
792454.803871867
837243.026198706
890061.215193992
951074.166806992
1020516.20204525
1099023.58843884
1187501.33926252
Revenues Orig.
351855.477820342
1270410.68038445
2798312.37800315
3787499.35679524
4170142.46590008
4352045.45656066
4465093.44312794
4545408.81619471
4604818.8823769
4648115.05674204
Cash Flows Orig.
-4285177.12023266
-5378848.26889426
1917450.89450061
2943588.3747636
3328567.90044393
3460999.05408123
3513029.7438435
3523886.86498053
3504770.24872529
3459568.35897901
Retained Cash Flows
-4170450.74516842
-5312717.88384693
1434122.91089818
2090340.41440845
2343683.9292617
2425810.05253756
2457585.58230964
2464241.30571621
2452612.61647719
2425072.30946767
Cash Balance Orig.
-4285177.12023266
-9664025.38912692
-7746574.49462632
-4802986.11986272
-1474418.21941879
1986580.83466244
5499610.57850594
9023497.44348647
1.25282676922118E7
1.59878360511908E7
Depreciations
287445.195209517
793337.378138718
802278.343637107
807229.269961471
807555.923849495
807653.468177767
807752.19546492
807852.718599912
807955.211250627
808059.74437353
Profits Orig.
-294170.192472411
-169565.089864951
1239302.52205751
2187815.2829619
2525343.51585188
2654330.7731889
2706267.08085603
2717039.89554955
2697840.08268743
2652553.97310599
4.0
Investments Act.1997
4266441.00818881
3051022.0959603
1487274.56066958
54353.1889413174
4260.80759917514
967.648080505568
985.465186776759
1004.81709471172
1024.83154265384
1045.30941185597
Running Costs
358460.363935426
589486.675192563
672019.269937448
730915.27600552
777179.979997046
830953.467073992
892595.814522922
962449.860577288
1041225.64975967
1129877.63745623
Revenues Act. 1997
351805.961021472
997048.455832706
2228078.78175043
3073346.95134712
3479371.72707592
3707056.70659228
3843902.93340956
3944243.75943376
4019576.50857063
4074253.79690242
Cash Flows Act. 1997
-4273095.41110277
-2643460.31532016
68784.9511434021
2288078.48640028
2697930.9394797
2875135.59143779
2950321.65369987
2980789.08176176
2977326.02726831
2943330.85003433
Retained Cash Flows
-4158552.71232677
-2603195.92585142
-285082.108601839
1629574.90186887
1899246.94271975
2008663.81289999
2054558.78653823
2073175.55625909
2071095.2553506
2050390.97782959
Cash Balance Act. 1997
-4273095.41110277
-6916555.72642293
-6847770.77527953
-4559692.28887924
-1861761.34939954
1013374.24203824
3963695.89573811
6944484.97749987
9921811.00476818
1.28651418548025E7
Depreciations
287044.824716819
510803.804918967
648708.076568773
653960.94577388
654284.063078991
654380.730447016
654479.254369635
654579.730900916
654682.212868125
654786.743536596
Profits Act. 1997
-293699.227630772
-103242.024278824
907351.435244209
1688470.72956772
2047907.68399989
2221722.50907128
2296827.86451701
2327214.16795556
2323668.64594284
2289589.41590959
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.07
0.07
0.08
0.08
0.09
0.09
0.1
0.1
0.11
0.11
0.12
0.12
0.13
0.13
0.14
0.14
0.15
0.15
0.16
0.16
0.17
0.17
4852765.17923645
3896768.0559388
4162875.32879218
3313442.22013855
3523043.47353627
2773105.92910843
2929106.26594919
2272141.22100064
2377290.22564717
1807271.619262
1864171.4519214
1375526.64906529
1386639.86372397
974210.357665802
941867.419617458
600873.352973516
527279.840880224
253287.93749106
140531.421954706
-70574.0309996539
-220517.434856971
-372560.873763393
0.07
0.07
0.08
0.08
0.09
0.09
0.1
0.1
0.11
0.11
0.12
0.12
0.13
0.13
0.14
0.14
0.15
0.15
0.16
0.16
0.17
0.17
4852765.17923645
3896768.0559388
4162875.32879218
3313442.22013855
3523043.47353627
2773105.92910843
2929106.26594919
2272141.22100064
2377290.22564717
1807271.619262
1864171.4519214
1375526.64906529
1386639.86372397
974210.357665802
941867.419617458
600873.352973516
527279.840880224
253287.93749106
140531.421954706
-70574.0309996539
-220517.434856971
-372560.873763393
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
BC5 - Competitive Access ProviderComparison of the first and second TE evaluation
Sheet: Graf1
Sheet: List1
Sheet: List2
Sheet: List3
Sheet: List4
Sheet: List5
Sheet: List6
Sheet: List7
Sheet: List8
Sheet: List9
Sheet: List10
Sheet: List11
Sheet: List12
Sheet: List13
Sheet: List14
Sheet: List15
Sheet: List16
1996.0
1996.0
1997.0
1997.0
1998.0
1998.0
1999.0
1999.0
2000.0
2000.0
2001.0
2001.0
2002.0
2002.0
2003.0
2003.0
2004.0
2004.0
2005.0
2005.0
-4285177.12023266
-4273095.41110277
-9664025.38912692
-6916555.72642293
-7746574.49462632
-6847770.77527953
-4802986.11986272
-4559692.28887924
-1474418.21941879
-1861761.34939954
1986580.83466244
1013374.24203824
5499610.57850594
3963695.89573811
9023497.44348647
6944484.97749987
1.25282676922118E7
9921811.00476818
1.59878360511908E7
1.28651418548025E7
Original
Modified
NPV [ECU]
527279.840880224
1375523.06617189
IRR
0.163811408626498
0.157760106684873
2.0
Investments Orig.
4278452.12296977
6002620.55716803
124129.971194009
51456.1781597765
4331.53925744254
985.187285434067
989.532477455324
1005.74916892927
1025.04521277088
1045.35850051316
Running Costs
358580.475083236
646638.392110679
756731.512308537
792454.803871867
837243.026198706
890061.215193992
951074.166806992
1020516.20204525
1099023.58843884
1187501.33926252
Revenues Orig.
351855.477820342
1270410.68038445
2798312.37800315
3787499.35679524
4170142.46590008
4352045.45656066
4465093.44312794
4545408.81619471
4604818.8823769
4648115.05674204
Cash Flows
-4285177.12023266
-5378848.26889426
1917450.89450061
2943588.3747636
3328567.90044393
3460999.05408123
3513029.7438435
3523886.86498053
3504770.24872529
3459568.35897901
Retained Cash Flows
-4170450.74516842
-5312717.88384693
1434122.91089818
2090340.41440845
2343683.9292617
2425810.05253756
2457585.58230964
2464241.30571621
2452612.61647719
2425072.30946767
Cash Balance Orig.
-4285177.12023266
-9664025.38912692
-7746574.49462632
-4802986.11986272
-1474418.21941879
1986580.83466244
5499610.57850594
9023497.44348647
1.25282676922118E7
1.59878360511908E7
Depreciations
287445.195209517
793337.378138718
802278.343637107
807229.269961471
807555.923849495
807653.468177767
807752.19546492
807852.718599912
807955.211250627
808059.74437353
Profits Orig.
-294170.192472411
-169565.089864951
1239302.52205751
2187815.2829619
2525343.51585188
2654330.7731889
2706267.08085603
2717039.89554955
2697840.08268743
2652553.97310599
4.0
Investments Act.1997
4266441.00818881
3051022.0959603
1487274.56066958
54353.1889413174
4260.80759917514
967.648080505568
985.465186776759
1004.81709471172
1024.83154265384
1045.30941185597
Running Costs
358460.363935426
589486.675192563
672019.269937448
730915.27600552
777179.979997046
830953.467073992
892595.814522922
962449.860577288
1041225.64975967
1129877.63745623
Revenues Act. 1997
351805.961021472
997048.455832706
2228078.78175043
3073346.95134712
3479371.72707592
3707056.70659228
3843902.93340956
3944243.75943376
4019576.50857063
4074253.79690242
Cash Flows
-4273095.41110277
-2643460.31532016
68784.9511434021
2288078.48640028
2697930.9394797
2875135.59143779
2950321.65369987
2980789.08176176
2977326.02726831
2943330.85003433
Retained Cash Flows
-4158552.71232677
-2603195.92585142
-285082.108601839
1629574.90186887
1899246.94271975
2008663.81289999
2054558.78653823
2073175.55625909
2071095.2553506
2050390.97782959
Cash Balance Act. 1997
-4273095.41110277
-6916555.72642293
-6847770.77527953
-4559692.28887924
-1861761.34939954
1013374.24203824
3963695.89573811
6944484.97749987
9921811.00476818
1.28651418548025E7
Depreciations
287044.824716819
510803.804918967
648708.076568773
653960.94577388
654284.063078991
654380.730447016
654479.254369635
654579.730900916
654682.212868125
654786.743536596
Profits Act. 1997
-293699.227630772
-103242.024278824
907351.435244209
1688470.72956772
2047907.68399989
2221722.50907128
2296827.86451701
2327214.16795556
2323668.64594284
2289589.41590959
1996.0
1996.0
1997.0
1997.0
1998.0
1998.0
1999.0
1999.0
2000.0
2000.0
2001.0
2001.0
2002.0
2002.0
2003.0
2003.0
2004.0
2004.0
2005.0
2005.0
-4285177.12023266
-4273095.41110277
-9664025.38912692
-6916555.72642293
-7746574.49462632
-6847770.77527953
-4802986.11986272
-4559692.28887924
-1474418.21941879
-1861761.34939954
1986580.83466244
1013374.24203824
5499610.57850594
3963695.89573811
9023497.44348647
6944484.97749987
1.25282676922118E7
9921811.00476818
1.59878360511908E7
1.28651418548025E7
1996.0
1996.0
1997.0
1997.0
1998.0
1998.0
1999.0
1999.0
2000.0
2000.0
2001.0
2001.0
2002.0
2002.0
2003.0
2003.0
2004.0
2004.0
2005.0
2005.0
4278452.12296977
4266441.00818881
6002620.55716803
3051022.0959603
124129.971194009
1487274.56066958
51456.1781597765
54353.1889413174
4331.53925744254
4260.80759917514
985.187285434067
967.648080505568
989.532477455324
985.465186776759
1005.74916892927
1004.81709471172
1025.04521277088
1024.83154265384
1045.35850051316
1045.30941185597
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1996.0
1996.0
1997.0
1997.0
1998.0
1998.0
1999.0
1999.0
2000.0
2000.0
2001.0
2001.0
2002.0
2002.0
2003.0
2003.0
2004.0
2004.0
2005.0
2005.0
-4285177.12023266
-4273095.41110277
-9664025.38912692
-6916555.72642293
-7746574.49462632
-6847770.77527953
-4802986.11986272
-4559692.28887924
-1474418.21941879
-1861761.34939954
1986580.83466244
1013374.24203824
5499610.57850594
3963695.89573811
9023497.44348647
6944484.97749987
1.25282676922118E7
9921811.00476818
1.59878360511908E7
1.28651418548025E7
Sheet: Graf1
Sheet: List1
Sheet: List2
Sheet: List3
Sheet: List4
Sheet: List5
Sheet: List6
Sheet: List7
Sheet: List8
Sheet: List9
Sheet: List10
Sheet: List11
Sheet: List12
Sheet: List13
Sheet: List14
Sheet: List15
Sheet: List16
0.07
0.07
0.08
0.08
0.09
0.09
0.1
0.1
0.11
0.11
0.12
0.12
0.13
0.13
0.14
0.14
0.15
0.15
0.16
0.16
0.17
0.17
4852765.17923645
3896768.0559388
4162875.32879218
3313442.22013855
3523043.47353627
2773105.92910843
2929106.26594919
2272141.22100064
2377290.22564717
1807271.619262
1864171.4519214
1375526.64906529
1386639.86372397
974210.357665802
941867.419617458
600873.352973516
527279.840880224
253287.93749106
140531.421954706
-70574.0309996539
-220517.434856971
-372560.873763393
Original
Modified
NPV [ECU]
527279.840880224
1375523.06617189
NPV Orig
4852765.17923645
4162875.32879218
3523043.47353627
2929106.26594919
2377290.22564717
1864171.4519214
1386639.86372397
941867.419617458
527279.840880224
140531.421954706
-220517.434856971
IRR
0.163811408626498
0.157760106684873
NPV Act. 1997
3896768.0559388
3313442.22013855
2773105.92910843
2272141.22100064
1807271.619262
1375526.64906529
974210.357665802
600873.352973516
253287.93749106
-70574.0309996539
-372560.873763393
2.0
Investments Orig.
4278452.12296977
6002620.55716803
124129.971194009
51456.1781597765
4331.53925744254
985.187285434067
989.532477455324
1005.74916892927
1025.04521277088
1045.35850051316
Running Costs
358580.475083236
646638.392110679
756731.512308537
792454.803871867
837243.026198706
890061.215193992
951074.166806992
1020516.20204525
1099023.58843884
1187501.33926252
Revenues Orig.
351855.477820342
1270410.68038445
2798312.37800315
3787499.35679524
4170142.46590008
4352045.45656066
4465093.44312794
4545408.81619471
4604818.8823769
4648115.05674204
Cash Flows
-4285177.12023266
-5378848.26889426
1917450.89450061
2943588.3747636
3328567.90044393
3460999.05408123
3513029.7438435
3523886.86498053
3504770.24872529
3459568.35897901
Retained Cash Flows
-4170450.74516842
-5312717.88384693
1434122.91089818
2090340.41440845
2343683.9292617
2425810.05253756
2457585.58230964
2464241.30571621
2452612.61647719
2425072.30946767
Cash Balance Orig.
-4285177.12023266
-9664025.38912692
-7746574.49462632
-4802986.11986272
-1474418.21941879
1986580.83466244
5499610.57850594
9023497.44348647
1.25282676922118E7
1.59878360511908E7
Depreciations
287445.195209517
793337.378138718
802278.343637107
807229.269961471
807555.923849495
807653.468177767
807752.19546492
807852.718599912
807955.211250627
808059.74437353
Profits Orig.
-294170.192472411
-169565.089864951
1239302.52205751
2187815.2829619
2525343.51585188
2654330.7731889
2706267.08085603
2717039.89554955
2697840.08268743
2652553.97310599
4.0
Investments Act.1997
4266441.00818881
3051022.0959603
1487274.56066958
54353.1889413174
4260.80759917514
967.648080505568
985.465186776759
1004.81709471172
1024.83154265384
1045.30941185597
Running Costs
358460.363935426
589486.675192563
672019.269937448
730915.27600552
777179.979997046
830953.467073992
892595.814522922
962449.860577288
1041225.64975967
1129877.63745623
Revenues Act. 1997
351805.961021472
997048.455832706
2228078.78175043
3073346.95134712
3479371.72707592
3707056.70659228
3843902.93340956
3944243.75943376
4019576.50857063
4074253.79690242
Cash Flows
-4273095.41110277
-2643460.31532016
68784.9511434021
2288078.48640028
2697930.9394797
2875135.59143779
2950321.65369987
2980789.08176176
2977326.02726831
2943330.85003433
Retained Cash Flows
-4158552.71232677
-2603195.92585142
-285082.108601839
1629574.90186887
1899246.94271975
2008663.81289999
2054558.78653823
2073175.55625909
2071095.2553506
2050390.97782959
Cash Balance Act. 1997
-4273095.41110277
-6916555.72642293
-6847770.77527953
-4559692.28887924
-1861761.34939954
1013374.24203824
3963695.89573811
6944484.97749987
9921811.00476818
1.28651418548025E7
Depreciations
287044.824716819
510803.804918967
648708.076568773
653960.94577388
654284.063078991
654380.730447016
654479.254369635
654579.730900916
654682.212868125
654786.743536596
Profits Act. 1997
-293699.227630772
-103242.024278824
907351.435244209
1688470.72956772
2047907.68399989
2221722.50907128
2296827.86451701
2327214.16795556
2323668.64594284
2289589.41590959
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
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0.0
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0.0
The Delphi study in OPTIMUM
The study was performed during the OPTIMUM Workshop in Aveiro, 20-22 October 1997.
The new forecasts are similar to the forecasts from the Delphi survey in 1994
Demand in the residential and SOHO marketDelphi surveyMost important group of applications: - Teleworking - Information services - Tele -entertainment12.5% penetration of 2Mbit accesses in year 2005The households are willing to use 2% of their disposable income to broadband communication
Leading Group of Applications percentage score
Round 1
Round 2
Teleworking
25 %
28 %
Information services
20 %
25 %
Tele-entertainment
22%
24 %
Teleshopping
12 %
7 %
Private communications services
8 %
6 %
Telecommunity
10 %
4 %
Telelearning
3 %
3 %
Others (Telebanking)
1 %
1 %
Willingness to pay as a function of capacity
_946800516.unknown
DELPHI- FORECAST
_946800514.unknown
Risk assessment in OPTIMUMRisk analysis of market parametersRisk analysis of cost componentsRisk and dependenciesRisk analysis of the Internet evolution
General Guidelines from OPTIMUMOPTIMUM guidelines cannot include definite recommendations for specific actors, but represent a broader consensus view of many actors and interests. However the evaluation process and the results of the common studies give improved understanding about the techno-economic issues of advanced communication. The value of the OPTIMUM is on one hand in the common methodology and tool that the partners and other ACTS projects use in their specific, sometimes confidential cases. On the other hand OPTIMUM includes co-operative studies that provide objective guidelines for the ACTS consensus building.
General Guidelines from OPTIMUMGuideline 1:
Demand and tariffs have a major impact on the viability of a particular service, whereas the cost of technology turns out to be of secondary importance. The number of technological options is significant smaller, if an adequate infrastructure exists and the main geographic characteristics are known. The uncertainties associated with revenues are much higher than the uncertainty on the cost of technology.
General Guidelines from OPTIMUMGuideline 2:
The services like telemedicine and telelearning are of great social importance. However, to be profitable they need financial support external to the telecommunication project.
General Guidelines from OPTIMUMGuideline 3:
The liberalisation of telecommunications is likely to lead to the fast development of the telecommunication infrastructure and to the higher quality and lower tariffs of telecommunication services. This requires a fair regulatory environment.
General Guidelines from OPTIMUMGuideline 4:
The broadband upgrade of the access network is of paramount importance for the incumbent operator. The costs associated with such an upgrade are at least equivalent to the overall costs of establishing the existing access network. Hence the existing infrastructure has to be utilised in an effective way.
General Guidelines from OPTIMUMGuideline 5: Teleworking, information services and tele-entertainment stand out as the most promising services for broadband applications in the future. There will be a substantial demand for broadband services in the residential and SOHO market during the next 10 years. However, the households are not willing to pay too much more for additional broadband applications and additional capacity.
Specific Guidelines from OPTIMUM
The specific guidelines reported below are based on the results obtained in the various OPTIMUM business cases and on the results of the risk studies (Del. 13). These guidelines are based on specific business cases, and should be applied carefully to other conditions.
Specific Guidelines from OPTIMUMGuideline 1:In an industrial park, where SME-customers are concentrated in a small geographic area, the incumbent operators do not have big advantage from ownership of the existing copper loop. A LMDS based network can be built at reasonable investment costs. The license fees, base station site costs and interconnection costs will be the determining factors for the profitability of the competing operator.
Specific Guidelines from OPTIMUMGuideline 2:
The real pilot project of the multifunction network of integrated telecommunication services in Prague has confirmed the validity of basic liberalisation principles and the possibilities of entering of new operators into the branch.
Specific Guidelines from OPTIMUMGuideline 3:Broadband multimedia access in the residential and SOHOs market segment can be profitably introduced using ADSL and LMDS technology. The actual level of costs depends on many issues like existing infrastructure, licence and interconnection fees, level of operating costs etc.
Specific Guidelines from OPTIMUMGuideline 4:
For an industrial park with a mix of SMEs and big business customers the Broadband PON is an attractive architecture. With tariff structure based on monopolistic situation as in the Portuguese case, the establishment of this broadband network platform for a industrial park is profitable.
Specific Guidelines from OPTIMUMGuideline 5:The Telemedicine case turns out to be relatively heavy in terms of investments prospects with payback periods of about 5 years. The economic viability is very sensitive to the proportion of infrastructure costs attributed to the project. For incumbent operators the tendency would be to use their existing infrastructure (if available) and treat infrastructure costs as incremental. For this scenario the default figure (3,3%) of infrastructure cost proportion is reasonable. For new operators the situation is less favourable. A further externality factor affecting the financial viability of the overall project is the potential cost benefit of national medical care savings by the introduction of telemedicine.
Specific Guidelines from OPTIMUMGuideline 6:Telelearning is without question a perspective aid using telecommunication technologies and services for learning over distance. The study of the Telelearning business case has shown that the payback period - for tariffs and penetrations considered - is about five years. This result could probably be improved by assuming higher tariffs, since the tariffs applied in the study reflect more the typical residential tariff structure and do not take into consideration the willingness to pay in the SME market segment. Taking into account all advantages of the telelearning it is clear that the great interest exists to develop this perspective branch. However, the development of telearning will probably not gain momentum without the financial support of the telelearning services from governments, educational foundations and enterprises.
Specific Guidelines from OPTIMUMGuideline 7:The study on economics of new multimedia services that are provided for residential and SOHOs customers suggests that these services have good business potential when using ADSL or LMDS technologies for providing them. On the other hand HFC technology does not provide a profitable platform if the underlying cable television network is not readily two-way capable or at least easily upgradeable for interactive services. The revenue per customer is the most important factor contributing to the overall profitability. The cost of technology is of secondary importance.
OPTIMUM co-operation
Guideline Work
Editor of BAE guideline 2 Economic Issues of Broadband Access Platform EvolutionContributing general cost issues to BAC guideline 1 Access Network Strategies for BB Services Provisioning
OPTIMUM
BAE guideline 2
TITANEURESCOM
BA Chain
PLANET AC050
BAE = Broadband AccessBAE = Broadband Access Evolution & EconomicsBAC = Broadband Access Convergence & Compatibility
TOBASCOAC028
BroadBand Loop -AC038
12456Case definition:- Key questions to be answered- Limiting factors like market situation, coverage area. - Physical and economic conditions- AssumptionsService parameters: Penetrations, usage, traffic, tariff, revenue/customerArchitecture: NR of equipment, functionality, topology, capacities, granularity, rules for dimensioning.Cost information: Equipment cost and cost evolution, Maintenance material and labor, Operating costs, Administrative costsModeling and calculation: Construction of techno-economic model based on previous data, extraction of relevant results. Analysis: What does this mean?
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