Transcript
  • 12th Concertation meeting Nov. 98

    AC 226/ OPTIMUMProject

  • OUTLINEProject presentationObjectives for OPTIMUMPlanned work and AchievementsAnalyse 6 business casesWorkshop and Delphi surveyRisk assessment of market and technologiesGuidelinesOPTIMUM guidelinesACTS guidelinesEURESCOM guidelines

  • OPTIMUM PartnerTELENOR RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT,, NorwayINTELLSERVE LTD, Greece JVH INTERNATIONAL, BelgiumFIRMA H. DANIELSEN, NorwayFRANCE TELECOM, FranceDASSAULT ELECTRONIQUE, FranceARISTEL, FranceELIOS, FranceM3G, FranceSYSTEMES G, FranceENST B, FranceCENTRO STUDI E LABORATORI TELECOMUNICAZIONI SPA, ItalyUNIVERSIDADE DE AVEIRO, Portugal PLURICOM, PortugalNOKIA CORPORATION, FinlandTELECOM FINLAND, FinlandHELSINKI TELEPHONE CORPORATION, FinlandKONINKLIJKE PTT NETHERLAND NV, The Netherlands TELE DENMARK, DenmarkDEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG, GermanyDATTEL AS, Czech Republic

  • OPTIMUM OBJECTIVEContribution to guidelines and recommendations for the introduction of advanced multimedia communications networks and services based on tech-evaluation of business cases.The business cases are based on inputs from ACTS field trials and projects, expertise of specialised SMEs and market and technology evolution.Business cases are evaluated with the Tool and methodology from R2087/ TITAN and OPTIMUM project

  • Role of OPTIMUM

  • The OPTIMUM Information FlowNPVIRRPayback PeriodEconomic InputsCash flows, Profit & loss accountsGeometric ModelServicesArchitecturesYear 0Year 1Year nYear m. . .Demand for the Telecommunications ServicesDBRevenuesOA&MCostsLife Cycle CostFirst Installed CostInvestmentsRisk Assessment

  • Techno-Economic Evaluation ProcessCase definitionService parametersArchitecture, dimensioningCost informationModelling and calculation of resultsAnalysis of results

  • OPTIMUM BUSINESS CASESSMEs located in an industrial parkSMEs with a common sectorial profile spread in a wide geographical areaTele-medicineTele-learningCompetitive Access ProviderEconomics of Multimedia Service Upgrades

  • Business Case 6Economics of Multimedia Service UpgradesEvaluates the viability of fast access to the Internet and to other information sourcesAccess speed from 64kbit/s up to 10Mbit/s Two services evaluated:Basic service (non-real time applications)Enhanced service (real time applications included)Three environments modelled:Telephone operator network using advanced digital line coding, e.g. ADSLCable television network using cable modemsLMDS radio accessSeveral service penetration scenarios evaluated10%, 20%*, 30% or 40% final penetrationRisk analysis performed on most sensitive and uncertain components:Price of the access technology, service take rate, revenue per customer*Default for basic results

  • Key Results of Business Case 601/23/9812Techno-Economics of Multimedia Networks* ISDN not fully comparable, since the service is not the same.NPV expressed in kECUs (discounted at 5%)Inv/sub = Total discounted investment divided by the number of connected subscribers at year 2007

    Sheet: Assumptions&Basics

    Sheet: BasicTable

    Sheet: BasicTable (old)

    Sheet: CashBalanceData

    Sheet: CashBalanceChart

    Sheet: InvPerUser

    Sheet: InvPerUserChart

    Sheet: SensitivityDataEnhServ

    Sheet: RevenueSensChart

    Sheet: PenetSensChart

    Sheet: InvPerUserChart (2)

    ISDN

    ADSL

    HFC

    LMDS

    ServiceEB

    6.4

    20.0

    20.0

    20.0

    Tariff multiplier

    1.0

    1.0

    1.0

    1.0

    Service scenario

    2.0

    2.0

    2.0

    2.0

    NPV

    1032028.1424781159

    481112.2393097314

    -649659.9464700017

    2305503.8772580987

    IRR

    0.1992982262263832

    0.09393427092103594

    0.02549704420263426

    0.2646552731135307

    RestValue

    866299.3799160854

    501209.1417890596

    918583.2823940441

    1100323.766649825

    TotalDiscountedRunningCost

    5218116.644645393

    6336257.156117507

    5897202.9493409665

    5298354.645851167

    TotalDiscountedInvestment

    2403678.8574635736

    4036298.040774186

    5862355.949933044

    3617613.3216842813

    RunningCostToInvestmentRatio

    2.170887607736289

    1.5698189509568958

    1.005944197129197

    1.4645994954995272

    InvestmentPerConnectedCustomer

    359.9281101654132

    591.5861368268656

    793.3599065728771

    539.7251382286307

    DiscInvPerConnectedCustomer

    309.9521415169018

    520.4768589006043

    755.9453191403022

    466.48785579423355

    TotalDiscountedRevenue

    8121990.973722456

    1.054596850126133E7

    1.054596850126133E7

    1.054596850126133E7

    Basic service

    Enhanced service

    NPV

    IRR

    Inv/sub

    NPV

    IRR

    Inv/sub

    -

    -

    -

    ADSL

    480.0

    0.09393427092103594

    0.15172712225368742

    610.0

    HFC

    -650.0

    0.02549704420263426

    0.03046530373769203

    920.0

    LMDS

    2310.0

    0.2646552731135307

    0.12949445085141637

    720.0

    Basic service

    Enhanced service

    IRR

    NPV

    Inv/sub

    IRR

    NPV

    Inv/sub

    -

    -

    -

    ADSL

    HFC

    0.05870013299982475

    LMDS

    0.1808707970234355

    ISDN

    -453.93086687685513

    -647.355306054632

    -760.3015587299186

    -803.2743122388102

    -745.3713046934475

    -602.3258768275083

    -396.2115093926027

    -149.08259053069375

    123.73410466829012

    395.74560543097766

    ADSL

    -1055.1222842539196

    -1247.8440041293436

    -1511.5242872677184

    -1443.312740224052

    -1362.3344102747362

    -1062.2421795206192

    -773.4276649710687

    -365.15113104904026

    38.46196865469957

    411.0148755103261

    HFC

    -4336.231381410539

    -4287.428200350067

    -4104.7669022745185

    -3766.0878300361296

    -3323.1990126552732

    -2788.2701368750722

    -2190.1207243546023

    -1567.1375891476173

    -944.7157674491766

    -336.0918712221093

    LMDS

    -783.4102378245052

    -940.4851473117304

    -1034.7478915835113

    -1024.5753167877722

    -909.2542096169384

    -626.1987992747934

    -195.6121078065856

    333.27291688239865

    908.613546387692

    1494.363652301879

    -453930.86687685514

    -647355.3060546321

    -760301.5587299186

    -803274.3122388102

    -745371.3046934475

    -602325.8768275083

    -396211.5093926027

    -149082.59053069376

    123734.10466829012

    395745.60543097765

    -1055122.2842539195

    -1247844.0041293437

    -1511524.2872677185

    -1443312.740224052

    -1362334.4102747361

    -1062242.179520619

    -773427.6649710687

    -365151.13104904024

    38461.968654699565

    411014.87551032606

    -4336231.381410539

    -4287428.200350067

    -4104766.9022745187

    -3766087.83003613

    -3323199.012655273

    -2788270.136875072

    -2190120.7243546024

    -1567137.5891476173

    -944715.7674491766

    -336091.8712221093

    -783410.2378245052

    -940485.1473117304

    -1034747.8915835114

    -1024575.3167877721

    -909254.2096169384

    -626198.7992747934

    -195612.1078065856

    333272.91688239865

    908613.5463876921

    1494363.6523018791

    1998.0

    1998.0

    1998.0

    1998.0

    1999.0

    1999.0

    1999.0

    1999.0

    2000.0

    2000.0

    2000.0

    2000.0

    2001.0

    2001.0

    2001.0

    2001.0

    2002.0

    2002.0

    2002.0

    2002.0

    2003.0

    2003.0

    2003.0

    2003.0

    2004.0

    2004.0

    2004.0

    2004.0

    2005.0

    2005.0

    2005.0

    2005.0

    2006.0

    2006.0

    2006.0

    2006.0

    2007.0

    2007.0

    2007.0

    2007.0

    -453.93086687685513

    -894.7369975738062

    -4175.846094730425

    -1558.1316410166849

    -647.355306054632

    -1108.2312021070593

    -4113.816238454917

    -1843.1737800924584

    -760.3015587299186

    -1334.8237150390755

    -4220.906298121962

    -1993.5111889547368

    -803.2743122388102

    -1232.4916439724275

    -3784.016363253217

    -2002.4788514190043

    -745.3713046934475

    -954.8694050224511

    -3390.5281943473433

    -1761.0532021111892

    -602.3258768275083

    -483.12840814529966

    -2621.809855883112

    -1410.1846109862036

    -396.2115093926027

    -9.510174561902415

    -2024.1291649755233

    -887.4645284235341

    -149.08259053069375

    561.170268496464

    -1217.1404941674261

    -192.19423747806601

    123.73410466829012

    1121.4409370678436

    -437.43945138764286

    515.9922153943288

    395.74560543097766

    1680.0114593150247

    344.27852479710583

    1260.739460989852

    ISDN

    617.6497528991557

    579.4725904669217

    516.4267296318988

    468.1946875313627

    424.7853470246029

    395.6145629562973

    378.7205175436913

    369.3859764706442

    363.304630263631

    359.9281101654133

    ADSL

    1498.5387363573122

    1180.4971927221452

    1034.3616860913855

    847.9251638695583

    757.0955789884473

    676.1333875745012

    643.683755782266

    615.585043833157

    600.05329409644

    591.5861368268656

    HFC

    5660.822807176434

    3433.073615890674

    2222.9534835126924

    1561.7277500295784

    1203.7470090013585

    1005.4115241745492

    897.5648046780987

    839.2027056019655

    807.704931406263

    790.7777015438636

    LMDS

    1121.6935152055128

    918.5957432559077

    785.3781384266347

    695.5853224893934

    638.7193705542817

    597.6491936014648

    571.3377488764281

    555.0785580117176

    545.3587177607603

    539.7251382286307

    Basic case

    ISDN

    617.6497528991557

    579.4725904669217

    516.4267296318988

    468.1946875313627

    424.7853470246029

    395.6145629562973

    378.7205175436913

    369.3859764706442

    363.304630263631

    359.9281101654133

    ADSL

    HFC

    5660.822807176434

    3433.073615890674

    2222.9534835126924

    1561.7277500295784

    1203.7470090013585

    1005.4115241745492

    897.5648046780987

    839.2027056019655

    807.704931406263

    790.7777015438636

    LMDS

    1121.6935152055128

    918.5957432559077

    785.3781384266347

    695.5853224893934

    638.7193705542817

    597.6491936014648

    571.3377488764281

    555.0785580117176

    545.3587177607603

    539.7251382286307

    Enhanced case

    ISDN

    617.6497528991557

    579.4725904669217

    516.4267296318988

    468.1946875313627

    424.7853470246029

    395.6145629562973

    378.7205175436913

    369.3859764706442

    363.304630263631

    359.9281101654133

    ADSL

    1575.8207864661672

    1307.4550911499525

    1157.6786171879448

    984.7153176468252

    871.6543099846873

    786.2817263485715

    750.9439909998708

    724.4408721768372

    710.476388421895

    699.1329622865898

    HFC

    5738.10485728529

    3534.9206802687345

    2482.479238376648

    1772.3505848503198

    1429.513162143519

    1196.4603764905435

    1106.4321843706512

    1038.4471686959107

    1004.3041886916884

    982.2559981624088

    LMDS

    2389.9313021913063

    1807.6093157398122

    1415.3271154712925

    1183.3392426342596

    1024.2638404577392

    942.564970354672

    895.1572085918332

    860.0482850955743

    842.9338360273302

    829.5491057679476

    1998.0

    1998.0

    1998.0

    1998.0

    1999.0

    1999.0

    1999.0

    1999.0

    2000.0

    2000.0

    2000.0

    2000.0

    2001.0

    2001.0

    2001.0

    2001.0

    2002.0

    2002.0

    2002.0

    2002.0

    2003.0

    2003.0

    2003.0

    2003.0

    2004.0

    2004.0

    2004.0

    2004.0

    2005.0

    2005.0

    2005.0

    2005.0

    2006.0

    2006.0

    2006.0

    2006.0

    2007.0

    2007.0

    2007.0

    2007.0

    617.6497528991557

    1575.8207864661672

    5738.10485728529

    2389.9313021913063

    579.4725904669217

    1307.4550911499525

    3534.9206802687345

    1807.6093157398122

    516.4267296318988

    1157.6786171879448

    2482.479238376648

    1415.3271154712925

    468.1946875313627

    984.7153176468252

    1772.3505848503198

    1183.3392426342596

    424.7853470246029

    871.6543099846873

    1429.513162143519

    1024.2638404577392

    395.6145629562973

    786.2817263485715

    1196.4603764905435

    942.564970354672

    378.7205175436913

    750.9439909998708

    1106.4321843706512

    895.1572085918332

    369.3859764706442

    724.4408721768372

    1038.4471686959107

    860.0482850955743

    363.304630263631

    710.476388421895

    1004.3041886916884

    842.9338360273302

    359.9281101654133

    699.1329622865898

    982.2559981624088

    829.5491057679476

    Revenue sensitivity

    Reveneue

    ISDN

    -0.288157937314575

    -0.187691082350116

    -0.0665120300733906

    0.0688265889211471

    0.211433316413168

    0.361268999742315

    0.524129272381833

    0.70991387496877

    0.933890761550283

    1.22166410474048

    1.62186507468112

    ADSL

    -0.426566669311383

    -0.290377914732305

    -0.134773453523021

    0.00530221973325754

    0.125805837596236

    0.234651679103408

    0.338082116941696

    0.440288126207888

    0.544351940542256

    0.65286139733158

    0.768280248094961

    HFC

    -0.249086593737816

    -0.168508128746773

    -0.0988046241985512

    -0.0392633917625198

    0.0125463330033199

    0.0587001329998248

    0.100680787704441

    0.139521341008558

    0.175952254582999

    0.210503265020907

    0.243568948892625

    LMDS

    -0.190582634397472

    -0.113482859829805

    -0.0359548365065166

    0.0393580000127076

    0.111555439393924

    0.180870797023436

    0.247991073555786

    0.313695306705486

    0.378721125693883

    0.443734602264158

    0.509337390906512

    Penetration sensitivity

    Penetration

    ISDN

    0.0825297110628526

    0.234167198961877

    0.361268999742315

    0.47380735187835

    0.578455579747533

    0.657578258491267

    0.744660213431925

    ADSL

    0.10729369470715

    0.181925566210484

    0.234651679103408

    0.257405279614795

    0.274319996018785

    0.298817528701402

    0.306395734116559

    HFC

    -0.056823617663008

    0.00745718319532901

    0.0587001329998248

    0.09926052111069569

    0.133892774733331

    0.168076968478936

    0.195125040428702

    LMDS

    0.112797775384061

    0.149014098637781

    0.180870797023436

    0.186457536888593

    0.198655557278962

    0.205136328323988

    0.210793254348755

    0.5

    0.5

    0.5

    0.5

    0.6

    0.6

    0.6

    0.6

    0.7

    0.7

    0.7

    0.7

    0.8

    0.8

    0.8

    0.8

    0.9

    0.9

    0.9

    0.9

    1.0

    1.0

    1.0

    1.0

    1.1

    1.1

    1.1

    1.1

    1.2

    1.2

    1.2

    1.2

    1.3

    1.3

    1.3

    1.3

    1.4

    1.4

    1.4

    1.4

    1.5

    1.5

    1.5

    1.5

    -0.288157937314575

    -0.426566669311383

    -0.249086593737816

    -0.190582634397472

    -0.187691082350116

    -0.290377914732305

    -0.168508128746773

    -0.113482859829805

    -0.0665120300733906

    -0.134773453523021

    -0.0988046241985512

    -0.0359548365065166

    0.0688265889211471

    0.00530221973325754

    -0.0392633917625198

    0.0393580000127076

    0.211433316413168

    0.125805837596236

    0.0125463330033199

    0.111555439393924

    0.361268999742315

    0.234651679103408

    0.0587001329998248

    0.180870797023436

    0.524129272381833

    0.338082116941696

    0.100680787704441

    0.247991073555786

    0.70991387496877

    0.440288126207888

    0.139521341008558

    0.313695306705486

    0.933890761550283

    0.544351940542256

    0.175952254582999

    0.378721125693883

    1.22166410474048

    0.65286139733158

    0.210503265020907

    0.443734602264158

    1.62186507468112

    0.768280248094961

    0.243568948892625

    0.509337390906512

    0.1

    0.1

    0.1

    0.1

    0.15

    0.15

    0.15

    0.15

    0.2

    0.2

    0.2

    0.2

    0.25

    0.25

    0.25

    0.25

    0.3

    0.3

    0.3

    0.3

    0.35

    0.35

    0.35

    0.35

    0.4

    0.4

    0.4

    0.4

    0.0825297110628526

    0.10729369470715

    -0.056823617663008

    0.112797775384061

    0.234167198961877

    0.181925566210484

    0.00745718319532901

    0.149014098637781

    0.361268999742315

    0.234651679103408

    0.0587001329998248

    0.180870797023436

    0.47380735187835

    0.257405279614795

    0.09926052111069569

    0.186457536888593

    0.578455579747533

    0.274319996018785

    0.133892774733331

    0.198655557278962

    0.657578258491267

    0.298817528701402

    0.168076968478936

    0.205136328323988

    0.744660213431925

    0.306395734116559

    0.195125040428702

    0.210793254348755

    1998.0

    1998.0

    1998.0

    1999.0

    1999.0

    1999.0

    2000.0

    2000.0

    2000.0

    2001.0

    2001.0

    2001.0

    2002.0

    2002.0

    2002.0

    2003.0

    2003.0

    2003.0

    2004.0

    2004.0

    2004.0

    2005.0

    2005.0

    2005.0

    2006.0

    2006.0

    2006.0

    2007.0

    2007.0

    2007.0

    1575.8207864661672

    5738.10485728529

    2389.9313021913063

    1307.4550911499525

    3534.9206802687345

    1807.6093157398122

    1157.6786171879448

    2482.479238376648

    1415.3271154712925

    984.7153176468252

    1772.3505848503198

    1183.3392426342596

    871.6543099846873

    1429.513162143519

    1024.2638404577392

    786.2817263485715

    1196.4603764905435

    942.564970354672

    750.9439909998708

    1106.4321843706512

    895.1572085918332

    724.4408721768372

    1038.4471686959107

    860.0482850955743

    710.476388421895

    1004.3041886916884

    842.9338360273302

    699.1329622865898

    982.2559981624088

    829.5491057679476

  • Key Results of Business Case 601/23/9812Techno-Economics of Multimedia Networks

  • Risks in Business Case 6The most important variable regarding the risk influence is the monthly revenue per customer. A reduction of 30% or more on the revenue has a dramatic influence on the NPV.The ranking of the analysed variables regarding risk influence is:Monthly revenue per customerLevel of competitionService penetrationComponent price (including nominal price and price trend)The results are similar for all technologies and for both the basic service and the enhanced service.

  • Risks in Business Case 6

    Probability of yielding a positive NPV for different technologies

    Basic service

    Enhanced service

    ISDN case

    87 %

    N/A

    ADSL case

    67 %

    80 %

    HFC case

    35 %

    39 %

    LMDS case

    90 %

    83 %

  • BC5 - Competitive Access ProviderTE evaluation of the real access network project in an East European countryBased on the first license for a telecommunication company in the Czech Republic next to the SPT TelecomLicense valid for a defined area in the centre of PragueVery competitive conditionsResults after the second year of realisation - comparison with original assumptionsInfluenced by limited financial sourcesdelay in the constructionpart of investigations shifted to the year 1998some changes in the project

  • BC5 - Competitive Access ProviderObject of HOST

  • BC5 - Competitive Access ProviderComparison of the first and second TE evaluation

    Sheet: Graf1

    Sheet: List1

    Sheet: List2

    Sheet: List3

    Sheet: List4

    Sheet: List5

    Sheet: List6

    Sheet: List7

    Sheet: List8

    Sheet: List9

    Sheet: List10

    Sheet: List11

    Sheet: List12

    Sheet: List13

    Sheet: List14

    Sheet: List15

    Sheet: List16

    1996.0

    1996.0

    1997.0

    1997.0

    1998.0

    1998.0

    1999.0

    1999.0

    2000.0

    2000.0

    2001.0

    2001.0

    2002.0

    2002.0

    2003.0

    2003.0

    2004.0

    2004.0

    2005.0

    2005.0

    4278452.12296977

    4266441.00818881

    6002620.55716803

    3051022.0959603

    124129.971194009

    1487274.56066958

    51456.1781597765

    54353.1889413174

    4331.53925744254

    4260.80759917514

    985.187285434067

    967.648080505568

    989.532477455324

    985.465186776759

    1005.74916892927

    1004.81709471172

    1025.04521277088

    1024.83154265384

    1045.35850051316

    1045.30941185597

    Original

    Modified

    NPV [ECU]

    527279.840880224

    1375523.06617189

    NPV Orig

    4852765.17923645

    4162875.32879218

    3523043.47353627

    2929106.26594919

    2377290.22564717

    1864171.4519214

    1386639.86372397

    941867.419617458

    527279.840880224

    140531.421954706

    -220517.434856971

    IRR

    0.163811408626498

    0.157760106684873

    NPV Act. 1997

    3896768.0559388

    3313442.22013855

    2773105.92910843

    2272141.22100064

    1807271.619262

    1375526.64906529

    974210.357665802

    600873.352973516

    253287.93749106

    -70574.0309996539

    -372560.873763393

    2.0

    Investments Orig.

    4278452.12296977

    6002620.55716803

    124129.971194009

    51456.1781597765

    4331.53925744254

    985.187285434067

    989.532477455324

    1005.74916892927

    1025.04521277088

    1045.35850051316

    Running Costs

    358580.475083236

    646638.392110679

    756731.512308537

    792454.803871867

    837243.026198706

    890061.215193992

    951074.166806992

    1020516.20204525

    1099023.58843884

    1187501.33926252

    Revenues Orig.

    351855.477820342

    1270410.68038445

    2798312.37800315

    3787499.35679524

    4170142.46590008

    4352045.45656066

    4465093.44312794

    4545408.81619471

    4604818.8823769

    4648115.05674204

    Cash Flows Orig.

    -4285177.12023266

    -5378848.26889426

    1917450.89450061

    2943588.3747636

    3328567.90044393

    3460999.05408123

    3513029.7438435

    3523886.86498053

    3504770.24872529

    3459568.35897901

    Retained Cash Flows

    -4170450.74516842

    -5312717.88384693

    1434122.91089818

    2090340.41440845

    2343683.9292617

    2425810.05253756

    2457585.58230964

    2464241.30571621

    2452612.61647719

    2425072.30946767

    Cash Balance Orig.

    -4285177.12023266

    -9664025.38912692

    -7746574.49462632

    -4802986.11986272

    -1474418.21941879

    1986580.83466244

    5499610.57850594

    9023497.44348647

    1.25282676922118E7

    1.59878360511908E7

    Depreciations

    287445.195209517

    793337.378138718

    802278.343637107

    807229.269961471

    807555.923849495

    807653.468177767

    807752.19546492

    807852.718599912

    807955.211250627

    808059.74437353

    Profits Orig.

    -294170.192472411

    -169565.089864951

    1239302.52205751

    2187815.2829619

    2525343.51585188

    2654330.7731889

    2706267.08085603

    2717039.89554955

    2697840.08268743

    2652553.97310599

    4.0

    Investments Act.1997

    4266441.00818881

    3051022.0959603

    1487274.56066958

    54353.1889413174

    4260.80759917514

    967.648080505568

    985.465186776759

    1004.81709471172

    1024.83154265384

    1045.30941185597

    Running Costs

    358460.363935426

    589486.675192563

    672019.269937448

    730915.27600552

    777179.979997046

    830953.467073992

    892595.814522922

    962449.860577288

    1041225.64975967

    1129877.63745623

    Revenues Act. 1997

    351805.961021472

    997048.455832706

    2228078.78175043

    3073346.95134712

    3479371.72707592

    3707056.70659228

    3843902.93340956

    3944243.75943376

    4019576.50857063

    4074253.79690242

    Cash Flows Act. 1997

    -4273095.41110277

    -2643460.31532016

    68784.9511434021

    2288078.48640028

    2697930.9394797

    2875135.59143779

    2950321.65369987

    2980789.08176176

    2977326.02726831

    2943330.85003433

    Retained Cash Flows

    -4158552.71232677

    -2603195.92585142

    -285082.108601839

    1629574.90186887

    1899246.94271975

    2008663.81289999

    2054558.78653823

    2073175.55625909

    2071095.2553506

    2050390.97782959

    Cash Balance Act. 1997

    -4273095.41110277

    -6916555.72642293

    -6847770.77527953

    -4559692.28887924

    -1861761.34939954

    1013374.24203824

    3963695.89573811

    6944484.97749987

    9921811.00476818

    1.28651418548025E7

    Depreciations

    287044.824716819

    510803.804918967

    648708.076568773

    653960.94577388

    654284.063078991

    654380.730447016

    654479.254369635

    654579.730900916

    654682.212868125

    654786.743536596

    Profits Act. 1997

    -293699.227630772

    -103242.024278824

    907351.435244209

    1688470.72956772

    2047907.68399989

    2221722.50907128

    2296827.86451701

    2327214.16795556

    2323668.64594284

    2289589.41590959

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.07

    0.07

    0.08

    0.08

    0.09

    0.09

    0.1

    0.1

    0.11

    0.11

    0.12

    0.12

    0.13

    0.13

    0.14

    0.14

    0.15

    0.15

    0.16

    0.16

    0.17

    0.17

    4852765.17923645

    3896768.0559388

    4162875.32879218

    3313442.22013855

    3523043.47353627

    2773105.92910843

    2929106.26594919

    2272141.22100064

    2377290.22564717

    1807271.619262

    1864171.4519214

    1375526.64906529

    1386639.86372397

    974210.357665802

    941867.419617458

    600873.352973516

    527279.840880224

    253287.93749106

    140531.421954706

    -70574.0309996539

    -220517.434856971

    -372560.873763393

    0.07

    0.07

    0.08

    0.08

    0.09

    0.09

    0.1

    0.1

    0.11

    0.11

    0.12

    0.12

    0.13

    0.13

    0.14

    0.14

    0.15

    0.15

    0.16

    0.16

    0.17

    0.17

    4852765.17923645

    3896768.0559388

    4162875.32879218

    3313442.22013855

    3523043.47353627

    2773105.92910843

    2929106.26594919

    2272141.22100064

    2377290.22564717

    1807271.619262

    1864171.4519214

    1375526.64906529

    1386639.86372397

    974210.357665802

    941867.419617458

    600873.352973516

    527279.840880224

    253287.93749106

    140531.421954706

    -70574.0309996539

    -220517.434856971

    -372560.873763393

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    Sheet: Graf2

    Sheet: List1

    Sheet: List2

    Sheet: List3

    Sheet: List4

    Sheet: List5

    Sheet: List6

    Sheet: List7

    Sheet: List8

    Sheet: List9

    Sheet: List10

    Sheet: List11

    Sheet: List12

    Sheet: List13

    Sheet: List14

    Sheet: List15

    Sheet: List16

    1996.0

    1996.0

    1997.0

    1997.0

    1998.0

    1998.0

    1999.0

    1999.0

    2000.0

    2000.0

    2001.0

    2001.0

    2002.0

    2002.0

    2003.0

    2003.0

    2004.0

    2004.0

    2005.0

    2005.0

    -4285177.12023266

    -4273095.41110277

    -5378848.26889426

    -2643460.31532016

    1917450.89450061

    68784.9511434021

    2943588.3747636

    2288078.48640028

    3328567.90044393

    2697930.9394797

    3460999.05408123

    2875135.59143779

    3513029.7438435

    2950321.65369987

    3523886.86498053

    2980789.08176176

    3504770.24872529

    2977326.02726831

    3459568.35897901

    2943330.85003433

    Original

    Modified

    NPV [ECU]

    527279.840880224

    1375523.06617189

    NPV Orig

    4852765.17923645

    4162875.32879218

    3523043.47353627

    2929106.26594919

    2377290.22564717

    1864171.4519214

    1386639.86372397

    941867.419617458

    527279.840880224

    140531.421954706

    -220517.434856971

    IRR

    0.163811408626498

    0.157760106684873

    NPV Act. 1997

    3896768.0559388

    3313442.22013855

    2773105.92910843

    2272141.22100064

    1807271.619262

    1375526.64906529

    974210.357665802

    600873.352973516

    253287.93749106

    -70574.0309996539

    -372560.873763393

    2.0

    Investments Orig.

    4278452.12296977

    6002620.55716803

    124129.971194009

    51456.1781597765

    4331.53925744254

    985.187285434067

    989.532477455324

    1005.74916892927

    1025.04521277088

    1045.35850051316

    Running Costs

    358580.475083236

    646638.392110679

    756731.512308537

    792454.803871867

    837243.026198706

    890061.215193992

    951074.166806992

    1020516.20204525

    1099023.58843884

    1187501.33926252

    Revenues Orig.

    351855.477820342

    1270410.68038445

    2798312.37800315

    3787499.35679524

    4170142.46590008

    4352045.45656066

    4465093.44312794

    4545408.81619471

    4604818.8823769

    4648115.05674204

    Cash Flows Orig.

    -4285177.12023266

    -5378848.26889426

    1917450.89450061

    2943588.3747636

    3328567.90044393

    3460999.05408123

    3513029.7438435

    3523886.86498053

    3504770.24872529

    3459568.35897901

    Retained Cash Flows

    -4170450.74516842

    -5312717.88384693

    1434122.91089818

    2090340.41440845

    2343683.9292617

    2425810.05253756

    2457585.58230964

    2464241.30571621

    2452612.61647719

    2425072.30946767

    Cash Balance Orig.

    -4285177.12023266

    -9664025.38912692

    -7746574.49462632

    -4802986.11986272

    -1474418.21941879

    1986580.83466244

    5499610.57850594

    9023497.44348647

    1.25282676922118E7

    1.59878360511908E7

    Depreciations

    287445.195209517

    793337.378138718

    802278.343637107

    807229.269961471

    807555.923849495

    807653.468177767

    807752.19546492

    807852.718599912

    807955.211250627

    808059.74437353

    Profits Orig.

    -294170.192472411

    -169565.089864951

    1239302.52205751

    2187815.2829619

    2525343.51585188

    2654330.7731889

    2706267.08085603

    2717039.89554955

    2697840.08268743

    2652553.97310599

    4.0

    Investments Act.1997

    4266441.00818881

    3051022.0959603

    1487274.56066958

    54353.1889413174

    4260.80759917514

    967.648080505568

    985.465186776759

    1004.81709471172

    1024.83154265384

    1045.30941185597

    Running Costs

    358460.363935426

    589486.675192563

    672019.269937448

    730915.27600552

    777179.979997046

    830953.467073992

    892595.814522922

    962449.860577288

    1041225.64975967

    1129877.63745623

    Revenues Act. 1997

    351805.961021472

    997048.455832706

    2228078.78175043

    3073346.95134712

    3479371.72707592

    3707056.70659228

    3843902.93340956

    3944243.75943376

    4019576.50857063

    4074253.79690242

    Cash Flows Act. 1997

    -4273095.41110277

    -2643460.31532016

    68784.9511434021

    2288078.48640028

    2697930.9394797

    2875135.59143779

    2950321.65369987

    2980789.08176176

    2977326.02726831

    2943330.85003433

    Retained Cash Flows

    -4158552.71232677

    -2603195.92585142

    -285082.108601839

    1629574.90186887

    1899246.94271975

    2008663.81289999

    2054558.78653823

    2073175.55625909

    2071095.2553506

    2050390.97782959

    Cash Balance Act. 1997

    -4273095.41110277

    -6916555.72642293

    -6847770.77527953

    -4559692.28887924

    -1861761.34939954

    1013374.24203824

    3963695.89573811

    6944484.97749987

    9921811.00476818

    1.28651418548025E7

    Depreciations

    287044.824716819

    510803.804918967

    648708.076568773

    653960.94577388

    654284.063078991

    654380.730447016

    654479.254369635

    654579.730900916

    654682.212868125

    654786.743536596

    Profits Act. 1997

    -293699.227630772

    -103242.024278824

    907351.435244209

    1688470.72956772

    2047907.68399989

    2221722.50907128

    2296827.86451701

    2327214.16795556

    2323668.64594284

    2289589.41590959

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

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    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.07

    0.07

    0.08

    0.08

    0.09

    0.09

    0.1

    0.1

    0.11

    0.11

    0.12

    0.12

    0.13

    0.13

    0.14

    0.14

    0.15

    0.15

    0.16

    0.16

    0.17

    0.17

    4852765.17923645

    3896768.0559388

    4162875.32879218

    3313442.22013855

    3523043.47353627

    2773105.92910843

    2929106.26594919

    2272141.22100064

    2377290.22564717

    1807271.619262

    1864171.4519214

    1375526.64906529

    1386639.86372397

    974210.357665802

    941867.419617458

    600873.352973516

    527279.840880224

    253287.93749106

    140531.421954706

    -70574.0309996539

    -220517.434856971

    -372560.873763393

    0.07

    0.07

    0.08

    0.08

    0.09

    0.09

    0.1

    0.1

    0.11

    0.11

    0.12

    0.12

    0.13

    0.13

    0.14

    0.14

    0.15

    0.15

    0.16

    0.16

    0.17

    0.17

    4852765.17923645

    3896768.0559388

    4162875.32879218

    3313442.22013855

    3523043.47353627

    2773105.92910843

    2929106.26594919

    2272141.22100064

    2377290.22564717

    1807271.619262

    1864171.4519214

    1375526.64906529

    1386639.86372397

    974210.357665802

    941867.419617458

    600873.352973516

    527279.840880224

    253287.93749106

    140531.421954706

    -70574.0309996539

    -220517.434856971

    -372560.873763393

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

  • BC5 - Competitive Access ProviderComparison of the first and second TE evaluation

    Sheet: Graf1

    Sheet: List1

    Sheet: List2

    Sheet: List3

    Sheet: List4

    Sheet: List5

    Sheet: List6

    Sheet: List7

    Sheet: List8

    Sheet: List9

    Sheet: List10

    Sheet: List11

    Sheet: List12

    Sheet: List13

    Sheet: List14

    Sheet: List15

    Sheet: List16

    1996.0

    1996.0

    1997.0

    1997.0

    1998.0

    1998.0

    1999.0

    1999.0

    2000.0

    2000.0

    2001.0

    2001.0

    2002.0

    2002.0

    2003.0

    2003.0

    2004.0

    2004.0

    2005.0

    2005.0

    -4285177.12023266

    -4273095.41110277

    -9664025.38912692

    -6916555.72642293

    -7746574.49462632

    -6847770.77527953

    -4802986.11986272

    -4559692.28887924

    -1474418.21941879

    -1861761.34939954

    1986580.83466244

    1013374.24203824

    5499610.57850594

    3963695.89573811

    9023497.44348647

    6944484.97749987

    1.25282676922118E7

    9921811.00476818

    1.59878360511908E7

    1.28651418548025E7

    Original

    Modified

    NPV [ECU]

    527279.840880224

    1375523.06617189

    IRR

    0.163811408626498

    0.157760106684873

    2.0

    Investments Orig.

    4278452.12296977

    6002620.55716803

    124129.971194009

    51456.1781597765

    4331.53925744254

    985.187285434067

    989.532477455324

    1005.74916892927

    1025.04521277088

    1045.35850051316

    Running Costs

    358580.475083236

    646638.392110679

    756731.512308537

    792454.803871867

    837243.026198706

    890061.215193992

    951074.166806992

    1020516.20204525

    1099023.58843884

    1187501.33926252

    Revenues Orig.

    351855.477820342

    1270410.68038445

    2798312.37800315

    3787499.35679524

    4170142.46590008

    4352045.45656066

    4465093.44312794

    4545408.81619471

    4604818.8823769

    4648115.05674204

    Cash Flows

    -4285177.12023266

    -5378848.26889426

    1917450.89450061

    2943588.3747636

    3328567.90044393

    3460999.05408123

    3513029.7438435

    3523886.86498053

    3504770.24872529

    3459568.35897901

    Retained Cash Flows

    -4170450.74516842

    -5312717.88384693

    1434122.91089818

    2090340.41440845

    2343683.9292617

    2425810.05253756

    2457585.58230964

    2464241.30571621

    2452612.61647719

    2425072.30946767

    Cash Balance Orig.

    -4285177.12023266

    -9664025.38912692

    -7746574.49462632

    -4802986.11986272

    -1474418.21941879

    1986580.83466244

    5499610.57850594

    9023497.44348647

    1.25282676922118E7

    1.59878360511908E7

    Depreciations

    287445.195209517

    793337.378138718

    802278.343637107

    807229.269961471

    807555.923849495

    807653.468177767

    807752.19546492

    807852.718599912

    807955.211250627

    808059.74437353

    Profits Orig.

    -294170.192472411

    -169565.089864951

    1239302.52205751

    2187815.2829619

    2525343.51585188

    2654330.7731889

    2706267.08085603

    2717039.89554955

    2697840.08268743

    2652553.97310599

    4.0

    Investments Act.1997

    4266441.00818881

    3051022.0959603

    1487274.56066958

    54353.1889413174

    4260.80759917514

    967.648080505568

    985.465186776759

    1004.81709471172

    1024.83154265384

    1045.30941185597

    Running Costs

    358460.363935426

    589486.675192563

    672019.269937448

    730915.27600552

    777179.979997046

    830953.467073992

    892595.814522922

    962449.860577288

    1041225.64975967

    1129877.63745623

    Revenues Act. 1997

    351805.961021472

    997048.455832706

    2228078.78175043

    3073346.95134712

    3479371.72707592

    3707056.70659228

    3843902.93340956

    3944243.75943376

    4019576.50857063

    4074253.79690242

    Cash Flows

    -4273095.41110277

    -2643460.31532016

    68784.9511434021

    2288078.48640028

    2697930.9394797

    2875135.59143779

    2950321.65369987

    2980789.08176176

    2977326.02726831

    2943330.85003433

    Retained Cash Flows

    -4158552.71232677

    -2603195.92585142

    -285082.108601839

    1629574.90186887

    1899246.94271975

    2008663.81289999

    2054558.78653823

    2073175.55625909

    2071095.2553506

    2050390.97782959

    Cash Balance Act. 1997

    -4273095.41110277

    -6916555.72642293

    -6847770.77527953

    -4559692.28887924

    -1861761.34939954

    1013374.24203824

    3963695.89573811

    6944484.97749987

    9921811.00476818

    1.28651418548025E7

    Depreciations

    287044.824716819

    510803.804918967

    648708.076568773

    653960.94577388

    654284.063078991

    654380.730447016

    654479.254369635

    654579.730900916

    654682.212868125

    654786.743536596

    Profits Act. 1997

    -293699.227630772

    -103242.024278824

    907351.435244209

    1688470.72956772

    2047907.68399989

    2221722.50907128

    2296827.86451701

    2327214.16795556

    2323668.64594284

    2289589.41590959

    1996.0

    1996.0

    1997.0

    1997.0

    1998.0

    1998.0

    1999.0

    1999.0

    2000.0

    2000.0

    2001.0

    2001.0

    2002.0

    2002.0

    2003.0

    2003.0

    2004.0

    2004.0

    2005.0

    2005.0

    -4285177.12023266

    -4273095.41110277

    -9664025.38912692

    -6916555.72642293

    -7746574.49462632

    -6847770.77527953

    -4802986.11986272

    -4559692.28887924

    -1474418.21941879

    -1861761.34939954

    1986580.83466244

    1013374.24203824

    5499610.57850594

    3963695.89573811

    9023497.44348647

    6944484.97749987

    1.25282676922118E7

    9921811.00476818

    1.59878360511908E7

    1.28651418548025E7

    1996.0

    1996.0

    1997.0

    1997.0

    1998.0

    1998.0

    1999.0

    1999.0

    2000.0

    2000.0

    2001.0

    2001.0

    2002.0

    2002.0

    2003.0

    2003.0

    2004.0

    2004.0

    2005.0

    2005.0

    4278452.12296977

    4266441.00818881

    6002620.55716803

    3051022.0959603

    124129.971194009

    1487274.56066958

    51456.1781597765

    54353.1889413174

    4331.53925744254

    4260.80759917514

    985.187285434067

    967.648080505568

    989.532477455324

    985.465186776759

    1005.74916892927

    1004.81709471172

    1025.04521277088

    1024.83154265384

    1045.35850051316

    1045.30941185597

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    1996.0

    1996.0

    1997.0

    1997.0

    1998.0

    1998.0

    1999.0

    1999.0

    2000.0

    2000.0

    2001.0

    2001.0

    2002.0

    2002.0

    2003.0

    2003.0

    2004.0

    2004.0

    2005.0

    2005.0

    -4285177.12023266

    -4273095.41110277

    -9664025.38912692

    -6916555.72642293

    -7746574.49462632

    -6847770.77527953

    -4802986.11986272

    -4559692.28887924

    -1474418.21941879

    -1861761.34939954

    1986580.83466244

    1013374.24203824

    5499610.57850594

    3963695.89573811

    9023497.44348647

    6944484.97749987

    1.25282676922118E7

    9921811.00476818

    1.59878360511908E7

    1.28651418548025E7

    Sheet: Graf1

    Sheet: List1

    Sheet: List2

    Sheet: List3

    Sheet: List4

    Sheet: List5

    Sheet: List6

    Sheet: List7

    Sheet: List8

    Sheet: List9

    Sheet: List10

    Sheet: List11

    Sheet: List12

    Sheet: List13

    Sheet: List14

    Sheet: List15

    Sheet: List16

    0.07

    0.07

    0.08

    0.08

    0.09

    0.09

    0.1

    0.1

    0.11

    0.11

    0.12

    0.12

    0.13

    0.13

    0.14

    0.14

    0.15

    0.15

    0.16

    0.16

    0.17

    0.17

    4852765.17923645

    3896768.0559388

    4162875.32879218

    3313442.22013855

    3523043.47353627

    2773105.92910843

    2929106.26594919

    2272141.22100064

    2377290.22564717

    1807271.619262

    1864171.4519214

    1375526.64906529

    1386639.86372397

    974210.357665802

    941867.419617458

    600873.352973516

    527279.840880224

    253287.93749106

    140531.421954706

    -70574.0309996539

    -220517.434856971

    -372560.873763393

    Original

    Modified

    NPV [ECU]

    527279.840880224

    1375523.06617189

    NPV Orig

    4852765.17923645

    4162875.32879218

    3523043.47353627

    2929106.26594919

    2377290.22564717

    1864171.4519214

    1386639.86372397

    941867.419617458

    527279.840880224

    140531.421954706

    -220517.434856971

    IRR

    0.163811408626498

    0.157760106684873

    NPV Act. 1997

    3896768.0559388

    3313442.22013855

    2773105.92910843

    2272141.22100064

    1807271.619262

    1375526.64906529

    974210.357665802

    600873.352973516

    253287.93749106

    -70574.0309996539

    -372560.873763393

    2.0

    Investments Orig.

    4278452.12296977

    6002620.55716803

    124129.971194009

    51456.1781597765

    4331.53925744254

    985.187285434067

    989.532477455324

    1005.74916892927

    1025.04521277088

    1045.35850051316

    Running Costs

    358580.475083236

    646638.392110679

    756731.512308537

    792454.803871867

    837243.026198706

    890061.215193992

    951074.166806992

    1020516.20204525

    1099023.58843884

    1187501.33926252

    Revenues Orig.

    351855.477820342

    1270410.68038445

    2798312.37800315

    3787499.35679524

    4170142.46590008

    4352045.45656066

    4465093.44312794

    4545408.81619471

    4604818.8823769

    4648115.05674204

    Cash Flows

    -4285177.12023266

    -5378848.26889426

    1917450.89450061

    2943588.3747636

    3328567.90044393

    3460999.05408123

    3513029.7438435

    3523886.86498053

    3504770.24872529

    3459568.35897901

    Retained Cash Flows

    -4170450.74516842

    -5312717.88384693

    1434122.91089818

    2090340.41440845

    2343683.9292617

    2425810.05253756

    2457585.58230964

    2464241.30571621

    2452612.61647719

    2425072.30946767

    Cash Balance Orig.

    -4285177.12023266

    -9664025.38912692

    -7746574.49462632

    -4802986.11986272

    -1474418.21941879

    1986580.83466244

    5499610.57850594

    9023497.44348647

    1.25282676922118E7

    1.59878360511908E7

    Depreciations

    287445.195209517

    793337.378138718

    802278.343637107

    807229.269961471

    807555.923849495

    807653.468177767

    807752.19546492

    807852.718599912

    807955.211250627

    808059.74437353

    Profits Orig.

    -294170.192472411

    -169565.089864951

    1239302.52205751

    2187815.2829619

    2525343.51585188

    2654330.7731889

    2706267.08085603

    2717039.89554955

    2697840.08268743

    2652553.97310599

    4.0

    Investments Act.1997

    4266441.00818881

    3051022.0959603

    1487274.56066958

    54353.1889413174

    4260.80759917514

    967.648080505568

    985.465186776759

    1004.81709471172

    1024.83154265384

    1045.30941185597

    Running Costs

    358460.363935426

    589486.675192563

    672019.269937448

    730915.27600552

    777179.979997046

    830953.467073992

    892595.814522922

    962449.860577288

    1041225.64975967

    1129877.63745623

    Revenues Act. 1997

    351805.961021472

    997048.455832706

    2228078.78175043

    3073346.95134712

    3479371.72707592

    3707056.70659228

    3843902.93340956

    3944243.75943376

    4019576.50857063

    4074253.79690242

    Cash Flows

    -4273095.41110277

    -2643460.31532016

    68784.9511434021

    2288078.48640028

    2697930.9394797

    2875135.59143779

    2950321.65369987

    2980789.08176176

    2977326.02726831

    2943330.85003433

    Retained Cash Flows

    -4158552.71232677

    -2603195.92585142

    -285082.108601839

    1629574.90186887

    1899246.94271975

    2008663.81289999

    2054558.78653823

    2073175.55625909

    2071095.2553506

    2050390.97782959

    Cash Balance Act. 1997

    -4273095.41110277

    -6916555.72642293

    -6847770.77527953

    -4559692.28887924

    -1861761.34939954

    1013374.24203824

    3963695.89573811

    6944484.97749987

    9921811.00476818

    1.28651418548025E7

    Depreciations

    287044.824716819

    510803.804918967

    648708.076568773

    653960.94577388

    654284.063078991

    654380.730447016

    654479.254369635

    654579.730900916

    654682.212868125

    654786.743536596

    Profits Act. 1997

    -293699.227630772

    -103242.024278824

    907351.435244209

    1688470.72956772

    2047907.68399989

    2221722.50907128

    2296827.86451701

    2327214.16795556

    2323668.64594284

    2289589.41590959

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

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  • The Delphi study in OPTIMUM

    The study was performed during the OPTIMUM Workshop in Aveiro, 20-22 October 1997.

    The new forecasts are similar to the forecasts from the Delphi survey in 1994

  • Demand in the residential and SOHO marketDelphi surveyMost important group of applications: - Teleworking - Information services - Tele -entertainment12.5% penetration of 2Mbit accesses in year 2005The households are willing to use 2% of their disposable income to broadband communication

  • Leading Group of Applications percentage score

    Round 1

    Round 2

    Teleworking

    25 %

    28 %

    Information services

    20 %

    25 %

    Tele-entertainment

    22%

    24 %

    Teleshopping

    12 %

    7 %

    Private communications services

    8 %

    6 %

    Telecommunity

    10 %

    4 %

    Telelearning

    3 %

    3 %

    Others (Telebanking)

    1 %

    1 %

  • Willingness to pay as a function of capacity

    _946800516.unknown

  • DELPHI- FORECAST

    _946800514.unknown

  • Risk assessment in OPTIMUMRisk analysis of market parametersRisk analysis of cost componentsRisk and dependenciesRisk analysis of the Internet evolution

  • General Guidelines from OPTIMUMOPTIMUM guidelines cannot include definite recommendations for specific actors, but represent a broader consensus view of many actors and interests. However the evaluation process and the results of the common studies give improved understanding about the techno-economic issues of advanced communication. The value of the OPTIMUM is on one hand in the common methodology and tool that the partners and other ACTS projects use in their specific, sometimes confidential cases. On the other hand OPTIMUM includes co-operative studies that provide objective guidelines for the ACTS consensus building.

  • General Guidelines from OPTIMUMGuideline 1:

    Demand and tariffs have a major impact on the viability of a particular service, whereas the cost of technology turns out to be of secondary importance. The number of technological options is significant smaller, if an adequate infrastructure exists and the main geographic characteristics are known. The uncertainties associated with revenues are much higher than the uncertainty on the cost of technology.

  • General Guidelines from OPTIMUMGuideline 2:

    The services like telemedicine and telelearning are of great social importance. However, to be profitable they need financial support external to the telecommunication project.

  • General Guidelines from OPTIMUMGuideline 3:

    The liberalisation of telecommunications is likely to lead to the fast development of the telecommunication infrastructure and to the higher quality and lower tariffs of telecommunication services. This requires a fair regulatory environment.

  • General Guidelines from OPTIMUMGuideline 4:

    The broadband upgrade of the access network is of paramount importance for the incumbent operator. The costs associated with such an upgrade are at least equivalent to the overall costs of establishing the existing access network. Hence the existing infrastructure has to be utilised in an effective way.

  • General Guidelines from OPTIMUMGuideline 5: Teleworking, information services and tele-entertainment stand out as the most promising services for broadband applications in the future. There will be a substantial demand for broadband services in the residential and SOHO market during the next 10 years. However, the households are not willing to pay too much more for additional broadband applications and additional capacity.

  • Specific Guidelines from OPTIMUM

    The specific guidelines reported below are based on the results obtained in the various OPTIMUM business cases and on the results of the risk studies (Del. 13). These guidelines are based on specific business cases, and should be applied carefully to other conditions.

  • Specific Guidelines from OPTIMUMGuideline 1:In an industrial park, where SME-customers are concentrated in a small geographic area, the incumbent operators do not have big advantage from ownership of the existing copper loop. A LMDS based network can be built at reasonable investment costs. The license fees, base station site costs and interconnection costs will be the determining factors for the profitability of the competing operator.

  • Specific Guidelines from OPTIMUMGuideline 2:

    The real pilot project of the multifunction network of integrated telecommunication services in Prague has confirmed the validity of basic liberalisation principles and the possibilities of entering of new operators into the branch.

  • Specific Guidelines from OPTIMUMGuideline 3:Broadband multimedia access in the residential and SOHOs market segment can be profitably introduced using ADSL and LMDS technology. The actual level of costs depends on many issues like existing infrastructure, licence and interconnection fees, level of operating costs etc.

  • Specific Guidelines from OPTIMUMGuideline 4:

    For an industrial park with a mix of SMEs and big business customers the Broadband PON is an attractive architecture. With tariff structure based on monopolistic situation as in the Portuguese case, the establishment of this broadband network platform for a industrial park is profitable.

  • Specific Guidelines from OPTIMUMGuideline 5:The Telemedicine case turns out to be relatively heavy in terms of investments prospects with payback periods of about 5 years. The economic viability is very sensitive to the proportion of infrastructure costs attributed to the project. For incumbent operators the tendency would be to use their existing infrastructure (if available) and treat infrastructure costs as incremental. For this scenario the default figure (3,3%) of infrastructure cost proportion is reasonable. For new operators the situation is less favourable. A further externality factor affecting the financial viability of the overall project is the potential cost benefit of national medical care savings by the introduction of telemedicine.

  • Specific Guidelines from OPTIMUMGuideline 6:Telelearning is without question a perspective aid using telecommunication technologies and services for learning over distance. The study of the Telelearning business case has shown that the payback period - for tariffs and penetrations considered - is about five years. This result could probably be improved by assuming higher tariffs, since the tariffs applied in the study reflect more the typical residential tariff structure and do not take into consideration the willingness to pay in the SME market segment. Taking into account all advantages of the telelearning it is clear that the great interest exists to develop this perspective branch. However, the development of telearning will probably not gain momentum without the financial support of the telelearning services from governments, educational foundations and enterprises.

  • Specific Guidelines from OPTIMUMGuideline 7:The study on economics of new multimedia services that are provided for residential and SOHOs customers suggests that these services have good business potential when using ADSL or LMDS technologies for providing them. On the other hand HFC technology does not provide a profitable platform if the underlying cable television network is not readily two-way capable or at least easily upgradeable for interactive services. The revenue per customer is the most important factor contributing to the overall profitability. The cost of technology is of secondary importance.

  • OPTIMUM co-operation

  • Guideline Work

    Editor of BAE guideline 2 Economic Issues of Broadband Access Platform EvolutionContributing general cost issues to BAC guideline 1 Access Network Strategies for BB Services Provisioning

    OPTIMUM

    BAE guideline 2

    TITANEURESCOM

    BA Chain

    PLANET AC050

    BAE = Broadband AccessBAE = Broadband Access Evolution & EconomicsBAC = Broadband Access Convergence & Compatibility

    TOBASCOAC028

    BroadBand Loop -AC038

    12456Case definition:- Key questions to be answered- Limiting factors like market situation, coverage area. - Physical and economic conditions- AssumptionsService parameters: Penetrations, usage, traffic, tariff, revenue/customerArchitecture: NR of equipment, functionality, topology, capacities, granularity, rules for dimensioning.Cost information: Equipment cost and cost evolution, Maintenance material and labor, Operating costs, Administrative costsModeling and calculation: Construction of techno-economic model based on previous data, extraction of relevant results. Analysis: What does this mean?

    Feedback loops.7101212771314151629


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