A MICROSIMULATION MODEL FOR SLOVENIAN PENSION SYSTEM
Mitja ČOKBoris MAJCENJože SAMBTTomaž TURK
2nd Microsimulation research workshop
October 2012, Bucharest, Romania
CONTENT AIMS OF THE PROJECT ESTABLISHMENT OF A SYSTEM OF LINKED TADABASES MODULES
PIT and SSC module Socio-demographic module
Sub-modul for weights Economic module
Model of generational accounts Pension module
“DYNAMIC” PENSION MODEL USER FRIENDLY INTERFACE CONCLUSION
AIMS OF THE PROJECT
Upgrading of the existing MSM (PIT and SSC) and
model of Generational accounts
Development of a socio-demographic, exconomic
and pension modules
Adding “time dynamics” through weights
Establishment of a system of linked tadabases
Possible platform for other modules (social
transfers, education, health)
ESTABLISHMENT OF A SYSTEM OF CONNECTED TADABASES
Sample of 40,000 households with 112,000 individuals
It is part on Statistical Office annual work plan
New base year - 2010
To be renewed every three years
Remote data access to databases for research purposes
MODULES
PIT and SSC module Calculation of PIT/SSC
Possibilities to change any tax parameter, e.g:
Additional PIT brackets
SSC ceiling..
User friendly interface
MODULES
Socio-demographic module It is based on Eurostat demographic projections
EUROPOP2010
Possibilities to change any demographic parameter:
Fertility
Mortality
Migrations
Possibilities to change transion functions for demographic
parameters
User friendly interface
MODULES
Sub-module for weights Enables a “construction” of the entire population
It is run after changes in demographic parameters are set
Time consuming process: one hour for two dimensions
We use two dimensions: age (one year age profiles) and
gender
Static-dynamic model (future projections are based on
weights changes)
User friendly interface
MODULES
Sub-module for weightsWeights for selected age, sample of 112,000 individuals,calibrated to EUROPOP2010
Age 2007 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
0 16,3 18,6 17,2 14,8 16,3 16,0 14,8
20 16,5 15,6 12,2 15,2 13,9 12,2 13,3
40 18,0 16,6 19,0 16,0 12,4 14,9 13,7
60 16,7 19,9 22,2 21,6 24,6 20.9 16,3
80 20,7 22,7 26,5 34,8 41,3 42,3 50,2
90+ 23,0 22,5 54,4 76,7 105,2 165,1 200,9
MODULES
Economic module
It connects the results of other modules:
Population <= socio-demographic module
Number of pensioners/insured <= pension module
Productivity and unemployment rates are exogenous
variables (in baseline scenario from the EU Commision
assumptions), set by user
MODULES
Economic module It calculates aggregates:
GDP
Different categories of government revenues/expenditures (taxes by type etc.)
Public deficit/surplus
Public debt
Pensions
It calculates EU indexes of long-term sustainability S1 and S1
User friendly interface
MODULES
Economic module – Generational accounts
It calculates generational accounts for each generation- i.e.
net financial position of representative individual regarding
the public-finance system in the rest of his/her life
If reveals the impact of each scenario on each generation
User friendly interface
MODULES
Pension module Reproduces the pension system from base year -2010 It is based on old-age pensioners who retired in period
2000-2010 Includes all pension system parameters (pay-as-you-go):
Working period/age conditions
Other conditions (e.g. number of children; compulsory military service)
Calculation of pension base
Pension formula
Indexation of pensions
Health insurance for pensioners
MODULES
Pension module NDC scheme
Basic concept is included (formula for NPV of contributions and rents)
MODULES
Pension module – how does it work?
Module defines individuals who fulfill retirement conditions
Calculates their pensions
Calculates aggregates (pensions, number of pensioners,
active contributors)
Transition periods are taken into account – they can be set
by user
User friendly interface
“DYNAMIC” PENSION MODEL
CONSISTS OF FOUR MODULES: PIT and SSC module Socio-demographic module
Sub-module for weights (GREGWT) Economic module
Model of generational accounts Pension module
WRITTEN IN MATRIXES
IN REAL TERMS (NO INFLATION)
WITH USER FRIENDLY INTERFACE
“DYNAMIC” PENSION MODEL
SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC
GREGWT
PENSION PIT / SSC
ECONOMIC / GENERATIONAL ACCOUTS
Demographic assumptions
Population_F
Population_M
WEIGHTS
Fundamental base
Fundamental base Matrix of retirenment conditions
Sum of pensions
Who is retired (status)
Sum of PIT / SSC Rate of employment
Rate of retirenment
External (user) parameters
External (user) parameters
Fundamental base
USER FRIENDLY INTERFACE
Enables scenario settings
It is used as data-warehouse – contains policy definitions
It connects all four modules
Displays the results
USER FRIENDLY INTERFACE
AVERAGE PENSION
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
2050
2052
2054
2056
2058
2060
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400Povprečna pokojnina
Povprečna pokojnina Povprečna pokojnina
EUR
NUMBER OF PENSIONERS/EMPLOYEES
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
2050
2052
2054
2056
2058
2060
.000
10000.000
20000.000
30000.000
40000.000
50000.000
60000.000
70000.000
80000.000
90000.000
100000.000
Število upkojencev in zavarovancev
število upokojencev SKUPAJ število zavarovancev
število upokojencev SKUPAJ število zavarovancev
PENSION EXPENDITURES AS SHARE OF GDP
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
2050
2052
2054
2056
2058
2060
000
000
000Delež pokojnin v BDP
delež pokojnin v BDP delež pokojnin v BDP
Dele
ž
CONCLUSIONS
A SYSTEM OF LINKED TADABASES IS ESTABLISHED
ALL FOUR MODULES ARE CONSTRUCTED
THE MODEL WORKS
CHALLENGES? Remote data access to the model (Statistical Office
server) Long-term maintenace of the model Possible platform for other modules (social transfers,
education, health)