1. William H. Frey The Brookings Institution & The
University of Michigan www.frey-demographer.org A 30,000-Foot View
of the Demographic Landscape
2. Projected 50 Years Population Growth
3. US: Population by Race: 2000 and 2050 69.1% 50.1%
4. US: Population by Age: 2000 and 2050 12.4% 20.7%
5. New Demographic Regions
Melting Pot America
The New Sunbelt
The Heartland
6. Melting Pot, New Sunbelt and Heartland States New Sunbelt
Melting Pot Heartland States
7. Share of U.S. in Melting Pot States Foreign Born 70% Asian
Language at Home 68% Spanish at Home 76% Mixed Marriages 51% Native
Born 37% English at Home 34%
8. Demographic Components, 2000-2007 (Rates per 1000)
9. Immigrant Magnet Metros, 2000-07 241,661 Washington DC 8
246,877 San Francisco 7 263,309 Houston 6 289,312 Dallas 5 379,550
Chicago 4 414,189 Miami 3 804,702 Los Angeles 2 1,079,700 New York
1
10. Domestic Migration Magnets, 2000-07 185,647 Charlotte, NC 8
220,579 Dallas 7 226,649 Orlando 6 254,739 Tampa 5 287,192 Las
Vegas 4 353,953 Atlanta 3 468,873 Riverside, CA 2 477,871 Phoenix
1
11. Greatest Domestic Out-Migration, 2000-07 -224,992 San Jose
8 -260,176 Boston 7 -263,322 Detroit 6 -323.869 New Orleans 5
-354.534 San Francisco 4 -477,254 Chicago 3 -1,120,854 Los Angeles
2 -1,643,228 New York 1
12. Race Composition of Regions 2007 Melting Pot New Sunbelt
Heartland
13. Melting Pot States: Race Change 1990-2007
14. New Sunbelt: Race Change 1990-2007
15. California: All Races Out-Migrate
16. Growing "New Immigrant" Destinations 1990-2005
17. Immigrant Concentrations in States 1990 2005 15% or more
10-14% 5-9% Less than 5%
18. Immigrants vs Natives
19. Hispanic Concentrations Data source: William H. Frey, US
Census Estimates Percent of County Population
20. Greatest Hispanic Gains, 2000-07 351,410 Chicago 8 389,168
Miami 7 417,329 New York 6 441,745 Phoenix 5 508,448 Houston 4
519,055 Dallas 3 522,060 Los Angeles 2 589,769 Riverside 1
21. Fastest Hispanic Growth, 2000-07 Metros with at least
50,000 Hispanics 85.9 Indianapolis 8 92.1 Nashville 7 92,4
Lakeland, FL 6 96.2 Raleigh 5 98.8 Fayetteville, AR 4 100.7
Charlotte 3 109.5 Port St. Lucie, FL 2 137.3. Cape Coral, FL 1
22. Asian Concentrations Percent of County Population Data
source: William H. Frey, US Census Estimates
23. Greatest Asian Gains, 2000-07 84,407 Riverside 8 85,179
Dallas 7 95,919 Chicago 6 98,446 San Jose 5 108,736 San Francisco 4
110,148 Washington DC 3 204,641 Los Angeles 2 315,022 New York
1
24. Fastest Asian Growth, 2000-07 Metros with at least 50,000
Asians 45.2 Columbus OH 8 50.9 Tampa 7 53.0 Atlanta 6 55.6 Orlando
5 56.1 Austin 4 57.4 Riverside 3 65.3 Phoenix 2 71.5 Las Vegas
1
25. Black Concentrations Percent of County Population Data
source: William H. Frey, US Census Estimates
26. Greatest Black Gains, 2000-07 61,509 Baltimore 8 69,913
Orlando 7 84,681 Charlotte 6 100,197 Washington DC 5 105,093 Miami
4 144,887 Dallas 3 150,180 Houston 2 413,199 Atlanta 1
27. White Concentrations Percent of County Population Data
source: William H. Frey, US Census Estimates
28. 2000-07 Greatest White Decliners -76,663 Philadelphia 8
-82,347 San Jose 7 -95,713 Pittsburgh 6 -127,120 New Orleans 5
-130,709 San Francisco 4 -142,696 Miami 3 -229,493 Los Angeles 2
-280,519 New York 1
29. 2000-07 Greatest White Gainers 116,444 Las Vegas 8 126,761
Raleigh 7 130,488 Houston 6 134,483 Charlotte 5 138,701 Austin 4
172,284 Dallas 3 262,890 Atlanta 2 322,104 Phoenix 1
30. Source: William H. Frey analysis
31. Born in Same State Source: William H. Frey analysis
32. US Growth by Age 2000-10
33. Growth by Age, 2000-10
34. State Growth in Child Population*, 2000-2010 Under age 18
Growth 5% and over Growth under 5% Decline under 5% Decline 5% and
over
35. Growth in H.S. Graduates, 2002-3 to 2009-10 GT 15% 7 15% 0
7 % Decline
36. Percent Non White Children*, 2015 * Under age 15 GT 50% 40%
- 50% 30% - 40% 20% - 40% Under 20%
37. Percent Children with Immigrant Parents - 2006 51% 35% 35%
34% 32% 31% 31% 23%
38. Children Speaking Other than English*, 2005 Source: William
H. Frey analysis * Ages 5 - 17 GT 20% 10% - 20% 6% - 10% Under
6%
39. Percent Speaking Spanish, Children and Adults, 2005
40. English Proficiency for Spanish Speakers, 2005
41. Hispanic, Asian Children by Generation, 2006 Hispanics
Asians
42. Young Adult Education 2006 , 2 Generations Hispanics
Asians
43. US Growth by Age 2000-10
44. Age 65 + Growth, 2000-10, US States 25% & above 20%
-24% 10% -19% under 10%
45. Percent 65+ population for States, 2005 13.4% & above
12% -13% 11% -11.9% under 12%
46. Greatest 65+ Growth: Large Metros 51.6 Atlanta 8 51.3
Orlando 9 50.5 Houston 10 52.9 El Paso 7 54.3 Phoenix 6 57.4
Raleigh 5 62.0 Austin 4 62.4 Colorado Springs 3 63.3 McAllen, TX 2
131.4 Las Vegas 1
47. Greatest 65+ Decline: Large Metros 0.8 Youngstown-OH 8 1.1
Toledo 9 2.5 Cleveland 10 0.1 Providence 7 -0.5 New Haven 6 -0.6
Worcester, MA 5 -1.5 Buffalo 4 -2.1 Springfield, MA 3 -2.7
Pittsburgh 2 -10.8 Scranton 1
48. Fastest Growing Old-Old (85+), 2000-10
% Growth
1. Alaska 116.0
2. Nevada 96.9
3. Arizona 76.4
4. New Mexico 64.4
5. Florida 62.4
6. California 57.8
7. Delaware 57.7
8. Hawaii 57.4
9. Maryland 57.1
49. Projected Age 65+ Growth 2000-30, US States 140% &
above 100% -139% 70% -99% under 69%
50. Projected Age 65+ Growth, 2000-40 Florida California New
York percent growth
51. Rates of Migration by Age Per 100
52. Arizona Projections: Aging in Place and Migration percent
growth
53. New York Projections: Aging in Place and Migration Source:
William H. Frey analysis percent growth
54. Boomers vs. Parents at Midlife
55. Race for Age Groups: US
56. Race for Age Groups: California
57. Race for Age Groups: Minnesota
58. United States Projected Race Compositions, 2025 Under Age
18 52 % white black Indian Asian Hispanic 62 % Age 18 -64 76 % Age
65+
59. State Projected Growth, 2000-2030 Source: William Frey
60. Electoral Vote Gains, 2000-2030 Source: William Frey
61. Electoral Vote Losses, 2000-2030 Source: William Frey
62. Red and Blue States, 2004 Source: William Frey
63. Projected Red State Advantage (assuming constant 2004 state
victories) Source: William Frey
64. Red and Blue States, 2008
65. Projected Blue State Advantage (assuming constant 2008
state victories) Red Blue Advantage 2008 174 364 190 2012 178 360
182 2024 179 359 180 2032 183 355 172 Electoral Votes