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Daily Technical Trader – Qatar

Wednesday, 07 January 2015

Stocks Covered Today

Ticker Price Target

DHBK 54.00 55.00

GWCS 53.50 51.90

QSE Index

Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)

Last 11,811.75 -1.5 9.1

Resistance/Support

Levels 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 12,000 12,200 12,430

Support 11,800 11,430 10,900

QSE Index Commentary

Overview: Moving averages are above the Index level on the daily and the intraday charts. This means that the overall trend is still down, and it is expected to continue this way. Moreover, indicators are providing mixed signals. On the daily chart, indicators are still bearish as the MACD is below zero and still pointing down, while the RSI is trending down. On the other hand, the intraday chart is showing that the MACD is still below the zero but it is fighting its way upward. The RSI is breaking above the oversold area. Thus, over the very short-term, the index may experience a possible bounce. First Resistance Level: 12,000 If a bounce takes place, strong selling pressure may take place at this level. First Support Level: 11,800

QSE Index (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

QE Summary

Market Indicators 06 Jan 15 05 Jan 15 %Ch.

Value Traded (QR mn) 475.9 309.2 53.9

Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 654.3 662.4 -1.2

Volume (mn) 11.7 7.4 58.1

Number of Trans. 7,514 5,998 25.3

Companies Traded 41 40 2.5

Market Breadth 8:31 5:33 –

QE Indices

Market Indices Close 1D% RSI

Total Return 17,617.11 -1.5 39.4

All Share Index 3,035.74 -1.4 40.5

Banks 3,081.74 -1.0 39.7

Industrials 3,938.96 -0.9 42.5

Transportation 2,237.15 -2.1 46.2

Real Estate 2,124.78 -3.6 36.5

Insurance 3,739.61 -1.8 46.7

Telecoms 1,408.12 -2.4 46.0

Consumer 6,870.68 0.2 47.7

Al Rayan Islamic 3,933.01 -1.5 40.3

RSI 14 (Over Bought)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

RSI 14 (Over Sold)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

IHGS 98.80 -9.9 28.9

QSE Index (30min)



DHBK

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 54.00 -3.05 154,985

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 55.40 57.00 58.50

Support 53.90 52.00 49.00

Commentary

Overview: The bank is in a clear downtrend at this point. However, considering that DHBK has dropped over 10% in the past couple of weeks to its recent low, the name could be in a temporary bounce mode. Although indicators are pointing down, a quick, risky trade is possible as the name formed a long legged candlestick in the last session. In the intraday chart, a long hammer was created (denoted in green oval). This shows indecision but over the very short-term. Expected Target Price: QR55.00 – QR55.40 The name is exhibiting volatile action and a price increase to QR55.00 is possible. Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR54.00 A break below will refute the recommendation.

(Daily)


(Hourly)



GWCS

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 53.50 -1.65 157,029

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 55.00 55.80 58.30

Support 53.10 51.90 50.40

Commentary

Overview: The name is in a clear short-term down trend. GWCS failed to break above the upper side of the downtrend channel, which means that the name could head lower. It is important to note that, at this point, GWCS is at an important support level above QR53.10. A break below that may drive selling pressure on the stock. Technical Indicators are on the bearish side. On the daily, MACD is below the zero line and the RSI is also on a downtrend just below its neutral area. Expected Price Retreat: QR51.90 – QR50.40 A break below QR53.00 triggers the sell recommendation on the name.

(Daily)


(Hourly)



Intra-day Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels

Ticker Close 3rd

2nd

1st

Pivot 1st

2nd

3rd

50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA

QSE Index 11,811.75 11,487.06 11,589.41 11,652.64 11,754.98 11,857.33 11,920.56 12,022.90 12,916.55 13,313.57 12,974.15

Total Return 17,617.11 17,132.84 17,285.49 17,379.80 17,532.44 17,685.09 17,779.40 17,932.04 19,264.92 19,857.07 19,342.04

All Share 3,035.74 2,957.63 2,982.15 2,997.30 3,021.82 3,046.34 3,061.49 3,086.01 3,283.84 3,374.88 3,294.67

Al Rayan Islamic 3,933.01 3,806.82 3,844.85 3,868.34 3,906.36 3,944.39 3,967.88 4,005.90 4,332.80 4,499.38 4,329.50

Banks & Financials Services

MARK 40.75 38.98 39.56 39.91 40.48 41.06 41.41 41.98 47.52 51.38 50.67

CBQK 65.50 62.90 63.82 64.38 65.30 66.22 66.78 67.70 70.72 70.81 68.83

DHBK 54.00 50.40 51.70 52.50 53.80 55.10 55.90 57.20 57.52 58.81 59.80

QIBK 100.20 95.40 97.31 98.49 100.40 102.31 103.49 105.40 104.64 110.12 100.69

QIIK 78.70 74.23 75.57 76.40 77.73 79.07 79.90 81.23 83.07 85.70 84.04

Insurance

QATI 85.10 80.37 82.62 84.01 86.27 88.52 89.91 92.17 91.02 94.55 86.24

Consumer Goods & Services

MCGS 119.50 105.77 109.70 112.13 116.07 120.00 122.43 126.37 122.04 125.71 105.67

Industrials

IQCD 167.90 161.37 163.24 164.39 166.27 168.14 169.29 171.17 184.01 186.28 183.51

QEWS 188.10 186.50 187.03 187.37 187.90 188.43 188.77 189.30 187.18 187.48 185.53

GISS 90.90 87.50 88.72 89.48 90.70 91.92 92.68 93.90 106.48 113.68 104.38

QIGD 37.50 36.63 37.05 37.31 37.73 38.15 38.41 38.83 44.06 50.86 55.53

Real Estate

BRES 38.80 37.33 37.87 38.20 38.73 39.27 39.60 40.13 45.17 43.13 41.10

UDCD 22.95 21.78 22.13 22.34 22.68 23.03 23.24 23.58 25.14 27.12 25.94

ERES 14.20 13.77 13.94 14.05 14.23 14.40 14.51 14.69 17.24 18.38 21.34

MRDS 17.50 16.97 17.21 17.37 17.62 17.86 18.02 18.27 21.29 22.55 20.55

Telecommunication

ORDS 118.40 112.93 114.81 115.96 117.83 119.71 120.86 122.73 118.85 124.16 132.54

VFQS 15.15 14.43 14.66 14.81 15.04 15.27 15.42 15.65 17.73 19.43 18.50

Transportation

QGTS 22.39 21.60 21.87 22.03 22.29 22.56 22.72 22.98 23.38 23.88 23.37

QNNS 95.90 91.97 93.49 94.44 95.97 97.49 98.44 99.97 98.08 96.73 95.55 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price


Definitions:

Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening

and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is

lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they

compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.

Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.

Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the

security price to head lower.

SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus

considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative

price direction and potential support/resistance levels.

Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in

a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally

use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be

considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.

Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &

shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.

Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These

levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.

Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot

Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.


Contacts

Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian

Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst

Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC

Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666

Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 [email protected] [email protected] Doha, Qatar

Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS.

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