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Daily Technical Trader – Qatar

Sunday, 04 January 2015

Stocks Covered Today

Ticker Price Target

IQCD 168.00 162.00

QGTS 23.10 22.00

QSE Index

Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)

Last 12,285.78 -0.3 16.6

Resistance/Support

Levels 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 12,430 12,600 12,800

Support 12,200 11,430 10,900

QSE Index Commentary

Overview: The QSE Index concluded the last day of 2014 losing 0.34%. Over the week, the Index was trading in a tight range between a high of 12,788.33 and a low of 12,189.99. Traders booked profits on lower volumes, which is a positive sign. The good news is that the Index closed above the expected support of 12,200. Indicators, on the other hand, are still showing mixed signals because of the range made over the past two sessions. Expected Target Level: 12,430 Suggested Stop-Loss Level: 12,200

QSE Index (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

QE Summary

Market Indicators 31 Dec 14 30 Dec 14 %Ch.

Value Traded (QR mn) 528.3 1,050.1 -49.7

Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 676.8 677.8 -0.1

Volume (mn) 13.4 23.4 -42.7

Number of Trans. 6,884 10,596 -35.0

Companies Traded 43 43 0.0

Market Breadth 20:21 5:35 –

QE Indices

Market Indices Close 1D% RSI

Total Return 18,324.12 -0.3 46.6

All Share Index 3,151.00 -0.2 48.0

Banks 3,203.99 -0.3 48.3

Industrials 4,039.63 -1.1 47.4

Transportation 2,318.49 2.3 54.8

Real Estate 2,244.48 -1.1 42.4

Insurance 3,958.54 0.0 61.4

Telecoms 1,485.62 3.3 56.7

Consumer 6,907.44 0.5 48.7

Al Rayan Islamic 4,101.39 -0.4 46.8

RSI 14 (Over Bought)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

QGRI 59.00 -1.5 79.0

RSI 14 (Over Sold)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

QSE Index (30min)



IQCD

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 168.00 -2.50 194,763

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 170.00 173.00 177.00

Support 168.00 164.00 162.00

Commentary

Overview: The Industrial sector’s leader is expected to travel south in the coming sessions, filling a price gap created middle of December 2014. Two reversal candlesticks created the Tweezers Top (circled in red). That reversal formation was confirmed by lower prices since its inception. Technical indicators support the theorem. The MACD, while under the zero line, is losing more ground (confirmed by its Histogram) and the RSI could not break above the neutral zone on the hourly chart. On the intraday chart, the MACD stepped back into the bearish zone below the zero line; the RSI’s trend is down. Expected Price Retreat: QR162.00 – QR160.00 The price gap is expected to be filled with this retracement and downward momentum could take the price even further to QR160.00.

(Daily)


(Hourly)



QGTS

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 23.10 0.87 253,933

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 23.20 23.70 24.00

Support 22.50 22.00 21.00

Commentary

Overview: Although the name is trading in a wide price range between QR22.50 – QR23.20, there are signs that the name could be losing momentum. A Tweezers Top reversal pattern was created (denoted in the red oval) and confirmed by the stock trading lower since its creation. The name is trading below its daily moving averages, which is a bearish signal. The MACD, on the daily frame, is printing below the zero line and losing more momentum. On the other hand, the hourly is giving an opposite signal. The MACD is above the zero line and the RSI is pointing north. The reason for the bearish call is that the there is more bearish momentum coming from the daily price action. Furthermore, the name is struggling to break above the downtrend line. Expected Price Retreat: QR22.00 – QR21.00 Because of the mixed signals given by the technical indicators, a confirmation needs to take place before a sell action can be initiated. That confirmation is trading below QR22.50.

(Daily)


(Hourly)



Intra-day Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels

Ticker Close 3rd

2nd

1st

Pivot 1st

2nd

3rd

50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA

QSE Index 12,285.78 12,075.07 12,159.21 12,211.20 12,295.35 12,379.49 12,431.48 12,515.63 13,002.59 13,345.76 12,964.35

Total Return 18,324.12 18,009.85 18,135.36 18,212.89 18,338.39 18,463.90 18,541.43 18,666.93 19,393.24 19,905.08 19,324.22

All Share 3,151.00 3,102.68 3,121.82 3,133.64 3,152.78 3,171.92 3,183.74 3,202.88 3,302.91 3,381.52 3,291.79

Al Rayan Islamic 4,101.39 4,022.13 4,055.52 4,076.15 4,109.54 4,142.93 4,163.56 4,196.95 4,363.55 4,513.93 4,321.20

Banks & Financials Services

MARK 44.20 43.13 43.69 44.03 44.58 45.14 45.48 46.03 48.18 51.74 50.61

CBQK 68.50 65.30 66.22 66.78 67.70 68.62 69.18 70.10 71.05 70.85 68.78

DHBK 57.00 55.53 56.03 56.34 56.83 57.33 57.64 58.13 57.67 58.85 59.83

QIBK 102.20 99.40 100.74 101.56 102.90 104.24 105.06 106.40 105.45 110.39 100.28

QIIK 81.70 79.50 80.15 80.55 81.20 81.85 82.25 82.90 83.52 85.86 83.92

Insurance

QATI 90.60 88.87 89.63 90.10 90.87 91.63 92.10 92.87 91.67 94.68 85.87

Consumer Goods & Services

MCGS 117.00 112.20 113.80 114.80 116.40 118.00 119.00 120.60 122.49 125.82 104.84

Industrials

IQCD 168.00 165.20 166.77 167.73 169.30 170.87 171.83 173.40 185.39 186.39 183.64

QEWS 187.50 185.83 186.60 187.07 187.83 188.60 189.07 189.83 187.24 187.32 185.23

GISS 97.10 94.37 95.89 96.84 98.37 99.89 100.84 102.37 108.05 114.41 104.10

QIGD 41.40 39.80 40.37 40.73 41.30 41.87 42.23 42.80 44.71 51.36 55.73

Real Estate

BRES 41.90 40.30 41.03 41.47 42.20 42.93 43.37 44.10 45.22 43.10 41.04

UDCD 23.59 22.76 23.02 23.18 23.43 23.69 23.85 24.10 25.45 27.33 25.91

ERES 14.92 14.44 14.71 14.87 15.14 15.41 15.57 15.84 17.48 18.53 21.36

MRDS 19.15 18.33 18.63 18.81 19.11 19.41 19.59 19.89 21.58 22.66 20.46

Telecommunication

ORDS 123.90 116.03 118.29 119.68 121.93 124.19 125.58 127.83 119.22 124.42 132.81

VFQS 16.45 15.82 16.05 16.19 16.42 16.65 16.79 17.02 18.01 19.55 18.45

Transportation

QGTS 23.10 22.32 22.58 22.74 23.00 23.26 23.42 23.68 23.43 23.94 23.35

QNNS 99.50 92.70 94.65 95.85 97.80 99.75 100.95 102.90 97.98 96.62 95.47 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price


Definitions:

Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening

and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is

lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they

compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.

Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.

Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the

security price to head lower.

SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus

considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative

price direction and potential support/resistance levels.

Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in

a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally

use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be

considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.

Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &

shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.

Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These

levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.

Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot

Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.


Contacts

Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian

Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst

Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC

Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666

Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 [email protected] [email protected] Doha, Qatar

Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS.

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