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Climate Change
• A growing globalconsensus that human
activities are leadingto Climate Change
• The poor are the leastequipped to tackleClimate Change and
hence will bedisproportionatelyaffected in adverse
ways
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World Vision’s View• Since the poor are most VULNERABLE
and least able to ADAPT to ClimateChange, WV must be involved
•
The poor can gain access to a multi-billion
dollar carbon credit market. They can: –
Participate and benefit from these markets
–
Have a significant impact on the reduction of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere
• Corporations, churches, and individualscan exercise their environmentalresponsibilities in a way that also alleviatespoverty
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The CPR Initiative•
Ensure participation of the poor in theemerging carbon market
–
Provide access to carbon credits
– Encourage community based activities inexisting Area Development Programmes
–
Provide direct environmental benefits tocommunities through CPR activities
•
Link Climate Change mitigation with AFOLU projects in the developing world for povertyreduction
–
Reforestation
–
Avoided deforestation
–
Increased agro-forestry
–
Sustainable agriculture (e.g. no till –
improved
soil carbon)
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Expected WV Policy
Framework
KNOWKnow, by measuring
and monitoring, the
activities the WV
Global Partnership,
which:
NEGATIVELY affect
the planet and its
environment; or
POSITIVELY affect
the planet and its
environment.
IMPROVEREDUCE the negative
impact the WV Global
Partnership has on the
planet’s environment,
And
INCREASE the
positive impact the
WV Global
Partnership has on the
planet’s environment.
OFFSETOFFSET those
negative activities
which cannot be
effectively reduced.
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Expected Way Forward
Existing Core Value - We are stewards of God's Creation. We care for
the earth and act in ways that will restore and protect the environment.
We ensure that our development activities are ecologically sound.
WV Policy Framework - Environmental Policy Needed
KNOW our impact. REDUCE negative and INCREASE positive
impacts. OFFSET remaining negative impacts.
Mitigation
Reducing
greenhouse
gas:
Emissions
Concentrations
Adaptation
Coping with
and adapting to
ClimateChange effects
- largely DRR
and Resilience
(Community,
environment)
Public
Engagement
& Policy
All peopleeverywhere
can contribute;
the poor must
be part of the
solution
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PROPOSED Climate Change Community of Interest
Mitigation
Working GroupVery tight and natural
connection to TD and
work of various parts
of the Integrated
Technical Teams.
Adaptation
Working GroupVery tight and natural
connection to HEA.
Public
Engagement &
AdvocacyVery tight and natural
connection to
Advocacy,
Communications, and
Marketing.
Small Climate Change staff group supporting the
Climate Change COP and its 3 Permanent WorkingGroups.
Other
Working
Groups
Other
Working
Groups
Other
Working
Groups
Other
Working
Groups
Other
Working
Groups
Reference Team Business TeamExecutive Team
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World Vision and Climate
Change•
Climate Change is NOT a new sector in TD or HEA
• Climate Change is a long-term reality for WV,which will affect ALL parts of our work
•
Climate Change will force WV to explicitly consider
the natural environment – our impact upon it, how toimprove it, how it is changing
•
WV needs to build capacity and understanding of
Climate Change issues• WV has been working on Climate Change issues for
last 2 years
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CΔ and Human Well-Being•
Combating climate
change is central tohumanitarian action
–
Climate change is not
only an environmentalproblem
as there are:
•
Social aspects
•
Economic aspects
–
Climate change is
fundamentally a
development problem
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Climate Change – why important•
The predicted impact of climate change
– Sea level rise•
Coastal cities, Low lying islands
–
Extreme weather and climate events
• Frequency and severity•
Drought, flood, landslide, sea surge
–
Changing precipitation patterns
•
Seasons and precipitation regimes change
•
Water and sanitation
–
Changing disease patterns
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Climate Change – why important•
Linkages and feedbacks with other systems
– Social systems•
Conflict arising from competition for scarcer resources
–
Environmental migration
•
Forced displacement
•
Voluntary movement
– Local and global economic systems•
Food grain availability and prices
•
Viability of livelihood strategies
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Economic Change – why important•
Changing food prices and vulnerability
– Winners and losers•
Farmers and consumers
–
Changing demand for food grains
• Biofuels•
Dietary patterns
–
Changing supply of food grains
•
Cost of production
•
Environmental change/degradation
–
Impact on humanitarian assistance
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Implications of Change•
Environmental degradation
• Settlement patterns
•
Livelihood choices
• Behaviour
•
Disaster risk
• Ecosystemhealth
•
Probability & severity
of events
•
Modulates effect of
extreme events
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Implications of Change•
Recurrent disasters
– Repeating with greater frequency and intensity
• Result in
– ↓ Livelihood assets/resources – ↓ Recovery capacity (resilience) – from current
shock
– ↑ Vulnerability – to next shock
–
↑
Numbers falling into destitution
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Implications of Change
•
Uncertainty of region-specific effects
– Need to emphasize increased capacity to respondto a range of possible impacts
– Coincidence of activities – Surprises – past not reliable predictor
• Adaptivecapacity
• Sustainabledevelopment
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Vulnerability and Adaptation• Vulnerability
– “The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unableto cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including
climate variability and extremes” (IPCC 2001)
• Exposure and adaptive capacity• Poverty and vulnerability
–
Livelihood resources
–
Inequality in access and distribution of resources
–
Institutions and social capital
–
Non-climatic factors that limit adaptive capacity
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Vulnerability and Adaptation• Adaptation
– “Adjustment in natural or human systems in response toactual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which
moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities” (IPCC
2007)
• Approaches to adaptation
–
Top-down, scenarios-driven approach
– Bottom-up, vulnerability-driven approach
• Examples
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Actions which address
the drivers of
vulnerability
Activities reduce poverty and address other
fundamental shortages of capability that make people
vulnerable to harm.
Very little attention is given to specific climate changeimpacts but actions can increase resilience to climate
stresses and shocks
Examples?
Actins which build
response capacityThese capacity building actions lay the foundation for
more targeted adaptation actions
Actions which manage
climate risk Climate information is incorporated into decisions to
reduce the negative affects of climatic impacts—due to
either variability or climate change—on resources and
livelihoods
Actions which
confront climate
change
Actions taken respond almost exclusively to impacts
known to be caused by climate change.
A Continuum of Possible Actions
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Avenues for Action•
Relief-development dichotomy is unhelpful
– Good, sustainable development mitigates the needfor relief responses
–
Good, proactive relief is somewhat developmental
in nature
•
A three-legged stool
– Advocacy, relief and development
– A combined, holistic approach
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Avenues for Action• “We are responsive”
– Tendency to be reactive• Proactive action
–
Capacity to respond
•
What is needed? –
skills, resources
– Reduce the need to respond
•
Disaster risk reduction?
•
Adaptation and mitigation?
–
Environmental stewardship
• What example should we set?
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Avenues for Action•
Proactive humanitarian action
– Prevent destitution (protect livelihood assets)•
Facilitates recovery
–
Environmentally sensitive assistance
•
Reduce negative impact
•
Restore damaged ecology
– Livelihood recovery•
Restoration of a nonviable livelihood strategy
•
Facilitate transition to a sustainable livelihood strategy
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Avenues for Action•
Proactive humanitarian action
– Response capacity of NGOs – ability to react•
Skill set
•
Resources
•
Types of response needed
–
Rapid onset
–
Slow onset
– Adaptive capacity of local populations
•
Disaster risk reduction
•
Resilient ecosystems and communities
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Scenarios1. Coastal cities and island states – Asia
–
Impact of sea level rise and increased frequency and intensity of
tropical storms on low-lying coastal areas
2. Agro-pastoral regions – Africa –
Impact of more frequent and severe dry periods and flooding on agro-
pastoral ecosystems and rural livelihoods3. Hilly landscapes – Latin America and Caribbean
–
Impact of more frequent and intense tropical cyclones on peri-urban
populations of poor living on sloping landscapes
4. Global grain supplies and prices –
Impact of higher grain prices on poor populations and the provisionof humanitarian assistance
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Scenario One•
Coastal cities and
island states –
Impact of sea level rise and
increased frequency and
intensity of tropical stormson low-lying coastal areas
–
Urban poor
– Displacement/migration –
Rural-urban linkages
–
Economic vulnerability
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Scenario Two• Agro-pastoral regions –
Africa –
Impact of more frequent and
severe dry periods and
flooding on agro-pastoral
ecosystems and rural
livelihoods
–
Migration
–
Vulnerability and resilience
–
Repeated shocks overlaid on
chronic poverty
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Scenario Three•
Hilly landscapes –
Latin America and
Caribbean – Impact of more frequent and intense tropical
cyclones on peri-urban populations of poor living
on sloping landscapes
–
Deforestation and destabilization of slopes
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Scenario Four•
Global grain supplies and prices
– Impact of higher grain prices on poor populationsand the provision of humanitarian assistance
•
Rural poor
–
Farmers –
net sellers, net buyers, seasonal buyers and sellers
–
Non-farmers
•
Urban poor
– Need for and provision of humanitarian
assistance
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Scenario Analysis•
Identify the principal actors
– Poor/rich, rural/urban, NGOs, government, other • Identify the principal forces/issues
– Environmental, economic, social, political• Identify the linkages and feedbacks
–
Positive –
reinforcing changes
– Negative – moderating changes
–
Between actors, forces, issues, regions (rural,
urban)
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Scenario Analysis•
Change
– Past and current changes – Likely future change
• Identify the areas of vulnerability – Possible scenarios and how they might evolve
–
Impact on the most vulnerable
– Impact on coping capacity
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Scenario Analysis• Identify pressure points – areas for action
– Reactive adaptation (disaster response) – Proactive adaptation (mitigation, DRR)
• Which areas can we act upon? – How?
–
When?
– Who’s responsible?
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Thank You
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Selected Sources•
Christian Aid. 2007. Human tide: The real migration crisis. Christian Aid: London.
•
Donini, Antonio , Larissa Fast, Greg Hansen, Simon Harris, Larry Minear,Tasneem
Mowjee, and Andrew Wilder. 2008. Humanitarian Agenda 2015: The
State of the Humanitarian Enterprise. Feinstein International Center, TuftsUniversity: Medford.
•
IISD. 2005. Vulnerability and Adaptation in Developing Countries. InternationalInstitute for Sustainable Development (IISD): Winnipeg.
•
ISDR. 2008. Environmental Sustainability and Disaster Risk Reduction.
International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR): Geneva.•
Perry, Jo-Ellen. 2008. Vulnerability and Adaptation: The Basics. IISD.
•
Save the Children UK. 2007.
Legacy of Disasters: The Impact of Climate Change
on Children. Save the Children UK: London.
•
World Vision Australia. 2008. Regional Climate Predictions: Horn of Africa:
Sudan, Ethiopia & Somalia. World Vision Australia: Melbourne.•
World Vision International. 2008. Regional Risk Mapping Project Report .Humanitarian and Emergency Affairs, Asia Pacific Region, World VisionInternational.
•
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