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Daily Technical Trader – Qatar

Monday, 29 December 2014

Stocks Covered Today

Ticker Price Target

ORDS 121.00 126.00

QIBK 105.60 108.00

QSE Index

Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)

Last 12,604.23 1.5 19.0

Resistance/Support

Levels 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 12,600 12,800 13,000

Support 12,430 12,200 11,430

QSE Index Commentary

Overview: The QSE Index continued its bullish correction; technical indicators are suggesting further continuation to the next possible target of 12,800. On the daily chart, the MACD is still below the zero line but its Histogram is showing further strength. The RSI is departing the neutral area and heading north. On the intraday chart, the MACD is above the zero line while the RSI is showing weakness and ended below the oversold area. Thus, there might be a slight profit booking from traders but the up move correction is still intact. Expected Target Level: 12,800 Suggested Stop-Loss Level: 12,200

QSE Index (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

QE Summary

Market Indicators 28 Dec 14 25 Dec 14 %Ch.

Value Traded (QR mn) 872.7 910.8 -4.2

Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 690.7 679.3 1.7

Volume (mn) 28.0 22.8 22.8

Number of Trans. 10,612 8,651 22.7

Companies Traded 42 43 -2.3

Market Breadth 38:1 30:9 –

QE Indices

Market Indices Close 1D% RSI

Total Return 18,839.65 1.5 52.1

All Share Index 3,218.26 1.7 52.4

Banks 3,257.81 0.6 52.2

Industrials 4,103.41 2.1 50.5

Transportation 2,318.78 1.9 55.5

Real Estate 2,418.64 4.0 51.7

Insurance 3,890.38 1.3 58.3

Telecoms 1,471.83 2.0 55.8

Consumer 7,086.51 2.2 53.4

Al Rayan Islamic 4,269.84 2.2 53.5

RSI 14 (Over Bought)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

QGRI 52.40 5.4 72.2

RSI 14 (Over Sold)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

QSE Index (30min)



ORDS

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 121.00 1.00 96,805

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 122.00 126.00 130.00

Support 117.80 115.00 111.00

Commentary

Overview: The Telecommunications sector leader broke through a medium-term downtrend line. That should provide positive attitude to the share price. In addition, the price broke above its 50SMA; it also broke above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Indicators are jittery as the name is still in a V shape correction. The MACD is below the zero line but challenging its way through it (indicated by the rise in the Histogram) and the RSI becoming bullish on the daily chart. The hourly chart indicates that the upward momentum is still valid. Expected Price Target: QR126.00 A break above the QR121.00 price would initiate a buying position. Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR119.00

(Daily)


(Hourly)



QIBK

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 105.60 1.34 98,235

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 106.00 108.00 112.50

Support 102.00 100.00 93.20

Commentary

Overview: Although the name gained over 25% from its previous trough, we expect a continuation in QIBK’s price upside. The name managed to stay above its 200SMA, which remains an essential level. Indicators are turning more bullish than bearish; the MACD is still below the zero line but its Histogram is showing strength and the RSI is strengthening above its neutral area. On the hourly chart, indicators are showing positive momentum. The MACD is above the zero line and the Histogram is still in the positive area. The RSI is reaching the overbought area; however, this should be a positive when we have a bullish move in a fractal time frame. Expected Price Retreat: QR108.00 It is essential to break the QR106.00 and sustain above this level for the name to continue its course to our projected target. Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR99.60

(Daily)


(Hourly)



Intra-day Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels

Ticker Close 3rd

2nd

1st

Pivot 1st

2nd

3rd

50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA

QSE Index 12,631.42 12,406.93 12,483.32 12,530.51 12,606.90 12,683.29 12,730.48 12,806.87 13,042.63 13,364.21 12,951.27

Total Return 18,839.65 18,504.81 18,618.75 18,689.14 18,803.08 18,917.02 18,987.41 19,101.35 19,452.96 19,932.60 19,300.41

All Share 3,218.26 3,149.62 3,171.65 3,185.26 3,207.29 3,229.32 3,242.93 3,264.96 3,311.31 3,384.99 3,288.11

Al Rayan Islamic 4,269.84 4,160.77 4,197.26 4,219.80 4,256.28 4,292.77 4,315.31 4,351.79 4,377.71 4,521.96 4,310.41

Banks & Financials Services

MARK 46.95 46.35 46.62 46.78 47.05 47.32 47.48 47.75 48.54 51.99 50.51

CBQK 68.70 66.77 67.34 67.69 68.27 68.84 69.19 69.77 71.15 70.80 68.71

DHBK 57.80 57.53 57.65 57.72 57.83 57.95 58.02 58.13 57.65 58.83 59.84

QIBK 105.60 100.60 102.09 103.01 104.50 105.99 106.91 108.40 105.82 110.54 99.85

QIIK 84.30 81.23 82.11 82.65 83.53 84.41 84.95 85.83 83.57 85.93 83.82

Insurance

QATI 90.10 88.70 89.46 89.94 90.70 91.46 91.94 92.70 92.12 94.69 85.46

Consumer Goods & Services

MCGS 121.90 119.97 120.73 121.20 121.97 122.73 123.20 123.97 122.87 125.82 104.08

Industrials

IQCD 175.50 172.37 173.32 173.91 174.87 175.82 176.41 177.37 186.12 186.42 183.85

QEWS 191.50 186.10 187.93 189.07 190.90 192.73 193.87 195.70 186.87 187.15 184.95

GISS 96.80 91.33 92.90 93.87 95.43 97.00 97.97 99.53 109.02 115.06 103.61

QIGD 44.00 42.33 42.91 43.26 43.83 44.41 44.76 45.33 45.20 51.69 55.83

Real Estate

BRES 47.30 45.77 46.65 47.19 48.07 48.95 49.49 50.37 45.04 42.99 40.89

UDCD 24.30 23.23 23.65 23.91 24.33 24.75 25.01 25.43 25.65 27.48 25.87

ERES 15.90 14.31 14.88 15.23 15.80 16.37 16.72 17.29 17.66 18.68 21.38

MRDS 20.48 18.76 19.30 19.63 20.17 20.71 21.04 21.58 21.70 22.69 20.35

Telecommunication

ORDS 121.00 118.20 119.00 119.50 120.30 121.10 121.60 122.40 119.53 124.61 133.09

VFQS 17.10 15.92 16.32 16.58 16.98 17.38 17.64 18.04 18.19 19.63 18.38

Transportation

QGTS 23.50 22.83 23.06 23.20 23.43 23.66 23.80 24.03 23.45 23.99 23.32

QNNS 96.70 94.57 95.25 95.68 96.37 97.05 97.48 98.17 97.84 96.42 95.40 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price


Definitions:

Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening

and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is

lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they

compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.

Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.

Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the

security price to head lower.

SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus

considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative

price direction and potential support/resistance levels.

Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in

a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally

use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be

considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.

Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &

shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.

Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These

levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.

Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot

Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.


Contacts

Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian

Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst

Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC

Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666

Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 [email protected] [email protected] Doha, Qatar

Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS.

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