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Daily Technical Trader – Qatar

Monday, 25 May 2015

Stocks Covered Today

Ticker Price 1st

Target

ORDS 96.00 98.00

NLCS 22.10 21.60

QSE Index

Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)

Last 12,443.42 0.0 11.7

Resistance/Support

Levels 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 12,600 12,800 13,000

Support 12,400 12,350 12,150

QSE Index Commentary

Overview: The QSE Index closed flat and is not moving in any certain direction; technical indicators are growing flattish. As a result, we can only stipulate that the downward pressure is more prominent. Expected Resistance Level: 12,600 Expected Support Level: 12,400

QSE Index (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

QE Summary

Market Indicators 24 May 15 21 May 15 %Ch.

Value Traded (QR mn) 439.5 497.1 -11.6

Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 660.7 664.9 -0.6

Volume (mn) 13.6 15.7 -13.8

Number of Trans. 5,536 6,273 -11.7

Companies Traded 41 41 0.0

Market Breadth 11:24 24:13 –

QE Indices

Market Indices Close 1D% RSI

Total Return 19,337.72 0.0 61.9

All Share Index 3,313.24 -0.1 61.0

Banks 3,217.45 -0.4 44.5

Industrials 3,951.74 -0.6 41.7

Transportation 2,461.12 -0.2 45.3

Real Estate 2,996.99 1.5 72.0

Insurance 4,770.26 -0.1 73.6

Telecoms 1,288.51 -0.3 38.9

Consumer 7,307.85 -1.1 45.4

Al Rayan Islamic 4,734.85 -0.4 63.9

RSI 14 (Over Bought)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

QATI 97.00 0.0 72.6

IHGS 144.00 2.1 72.1

ERES 20.90 2.4 70.2

RSI 14 (Over Sold)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

MPHC 25.25 -1.0 24.2

MARK 45.05 -1.6 28.5

QSE Index (30min)



ORDS

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 96.00 0.00 18,290

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 96.00 98.00 100.00

Support 94.00 93.00 92.00

Commentary

Overview: Although the long term trend is down, ORDS created three Doji candlesticks in the past sessions. These indecision candles suggest balance of forces after a sharp drop. Price stability above QR94.00 is essential for a bounce. Expected Target Price: 98.00 – QR100.00 A break above QR96.00 is needed to trigger the buy recommendation. Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR95.00

(Daily)


(Hourly)



NLCS

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 22.10 4.54 2,277,156

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 22.30 23.00 23.40

Support 22.00 21.60 21.15

Commentary

Overview: NLCS has been trading in a range since the beginning of the year. Heavy resistance is expected around the current levels. We expect a correction is more likely given intraday indicators. Expected Price Retreat: QR21.60 – QR21.15 A breach below QR22.00 triggers the sell recommendation.

(Daily)


(Hourly)



Intraday Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels

Ticker Close 3rd

2nd

1st

Pivot 1st

2nd

3rd

50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA

QSE Index 12,443.42 12,380.93 12,409.50 12,427.14 12,455.70 12,484.27 12,501.91 12,530.47 11,983.19 12,092.32 12,723.48

Total Return 19,337.72 19,240.61 19,285.00 19,312.42 19,356.81 19,401.20 19,428.62 19,473.01 18,592.75 18,469.93 19,194.12

All Share 3,313.24 3,298.91 3,305.74 3,309.96 3,316.79 3,323.62 3,327.84 3,334.67 3,199.66 3,180.80 3,282.02

Al Rayan Islamic 4,734.85 4,712.02 4,723.02 4,729.81 4,740.80 4,751.80 4,758.59 4,769.58 4,491.88 4,362.76 4,440.33

Banks & Financials Services

MARK 45.05 44.38 44.75 44.97 45.33 45.70 45.92 46.28 47.50 46.87 49.36

CBQK 56.40 56.13 56.25 56.32 56.43 56.55 56.62 56.73 57.16 59.66 62.03

DHBK 55.60 55.00 55.23 55.37 55.60 55.83 55.97 56.20 52.94 54.88 56.86

QIBK 106.00 104.93 105.24 105.43 105.73 106.04 106.23 106.53 101.78 103.25 106.87

QIIK 79.50 79.03 79.30 79.47 79.73 80.00 80.17 80.43 79.68 81.53 83.71

Insurance

QATI 97.00 95.60 96.10 96.40 96.90 97.40 97.70 98.20 81.72 79.42 80.88

Consumer Goods & Services

MCGS 171.20 163.73 166.03 167.44 169.73 172.03 173.44 175.73 158.32 146.75 136.33

Industrials

IQCD 141.10 139.57 140.22 140.62 141.27 141.92 142.32 142.97 141.50 146.83 166.63

QEWS 213.50 211.70 212.69 213.31 214.30 215.29 215.91 216.90 199.92 195.94 191.62

GISS 79.90 77.97 78.54 78.89 79.47 80.04 80.39 80.97 87.56 93.19 103.91

QIGD 52.70 51.83 52.33 52.64 53.13 53.63 53.94 54.43 45.25 43.09 47.29

Real Estate

BRES 50.80 49.60 50.10 50.40 50.90 51.40 51.70 52.20 48.27 47.20 45.14

UDCD 23.79 23.38 23.51 23.58 23.70 23.83 23.90 24.02 22.32 23.21 25.30

ERES 20.90 19.79 20.16 20.39 20.76 21.13 21.36 21.73 16.95 16.25 17.41

MRDS 19.42 19.24 19.32 19.36 19.44 19.52 19.56 19.64 18.29 18.53 20.06

Telecommunication

ORDS 96.00 94.93 95.24 95.43 95.73 96.04 96.23 96.53 100.45 107.82 116.15

VFQS 17.72 17.53 17.63 17.68 17.77 17.87 17.92 18.01 17.48 17.02 18.30

Transportation

QGTS 22.52 22.37 22.43 22.47 22.52 22.58 22.62 22.67 22.62 23.29 23.62

QNNS 98.00 97.93 97.97 98.00 98.03 98.07 98.10 98.13 99.70 100.89 98.71 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price


Definitions:

Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening

and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is

lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they

compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.

Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.

Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the

security price to head lower.

SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus

considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative

price direction and potential support/resistance levels.

Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in

a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally

use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be

considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.

Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &

shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.

Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These

levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.

Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot

Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.


Contacts:

Saugata Sarkar Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC

Head of Research Head of HNI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666

Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025

[email protected] [email protected] Doha, Qatar

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