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Daily Technical Trader – Qatar

Thursday, 25 December 2014

Stocks Covered Today

Ticker Price Target

DHBK 56.70 54.00

SIIS 14.85 14.00

QSE Index

Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)

Last 12,357.62 1.4 14.0

Resistance/Support

Levels 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 12,430 12,600 12,800

Support 12,200 11,430 11,230

QSE Index Commentary

Overview: The Index is stable in a tight intraday price range. The range is bound between 12,430 and 12,000; a break above or below the borders of this range will most likely determine the next direction for the overall Exchange. Any breach is expected to come with volatility as seen previously by the sharp V-shaped bounce as long as the Index is still trading below its SMAs. Expected Target Level: 12,430 – 12,600 The 12,600 target needs a sustained break above 12,430. Suggested Stop-Loss Level: 12,200

QSE Index (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

QE Summary

Market Indicators 24 Dec 14 23 Dec 14 %Ch.

Value Traded (QR mn) 659.5 707.8 -6.8

Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 674.7 665.2 1.4

Volume (mn) 13.2 16.3 -19.0

Number of Trans. 6,300 7,778 -19.0

Companies Traded 42 40 5.0

Market Breadth 33:7 9:29 –

QE Indices

Market Indices Close 1D% RSI

Total Return 18,431.28 1.4 48.0

All Share Index 3,140.57 1.4 47.7

Banks 3,229.94 1.3 50.4

Industrials 3,997.36 1.6 45.6

Transportation 2,264.49 1.4 50.5

Real Estate 2,275.09 2.3 43.0

Insurance 3,803.11 0.4 54.1

Telecoms 1,419.55 -0.1 49.2

Consumer 6,883.48 1.6 48.5

Al Rayan Islamic 4,111.16 1.7 47.5

RSI 14 (Over Bought)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

RSI 14 (Over Sold)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

IHGS 98.10 -9.9 18.0

AHCS 11.16 0.1 25.2

QSE Index (30min)



DHBK

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 56.70 0.18 560,601

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 58.00 60.00 61.80

Support 55.40 54.00 52.00

Commentary

Overview: The bank made a shooting star candlestick (denoted in red circle), which is considered a reversal candle. The name is trading below its moving averages, and has reached an area of strong resistance. The indicators are tilted toward more bearish signals than bullish ones. On the daily, the MACD is still below the zero line and the RSI is at the neutral area. On the hourly chart, it is clear that the MACD is losing its strength and the RSI has dipped below the oversold area. As a result, loss in price momentum is expected. Expected Price Retreat: QR54.00 – QR52.00 A breach above the QR58.00 price may indicate a continuation to the second resistance level of QR60.00; however, a breach below the QR56.20 price level triggers our sell recommendation.

(Daily)


(Hourly)



SIIS

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 14.85 1.37 184,435

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 15.00 15.80 16.35

Support 14.40 14.00 12.25

Commentary

Overview: SIIS created three reversal candles three days in a row. These candles are the Hanging Man, the Tombstone, and another Hanging Man (circled in red). These candles imply indecision between traders and the name is looking for a direction. In addition, the name reached an old resistance area created late June. On the daily chart, the MACD is extended below the zero line, and the RSI is reaching the neutral area. On the intraday chart, the price is approaching a short-term downtrend resistance line. Expected Price Retreat: QR14.00 – QR13.20 It is important to note that the name could break the QR15.00 upward. A strong break above QR15.00 could spike the price to QR15.75. Yet, our recommendation is stay cautious and sell with a drop below QR14.40 because that will most likely trigger panic selling that can take the price to QR13.20

(Daily)


(Hourly)



Intra-day Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels

Ticker Close 3rd

2nd

1st

Pivot 1st

2nd

3rd

50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA

QSE Index 12,357.62 12,202.14 12,250.49 12,280.37 12,328.72 12,377.07 12,406.95 12,455.30 13,066.44 13,371.71 12,942.12

Total Return 18,431.28 18,199.39 18,271.51 18,316.06 18,388.17 18,460.29 18,504.84 18,576.95 19,488.47 19,943.78 19,282.75

All Share 3,140.57 3,101.46 3,112.94 3,120.04 3,131.53 3,143.01 3,150.11 3,161.60 3,316.82 3,386.45 3,285.63

Al Rayan Islamic 4,111.16 4,029.48 4,056.45 4,073.12 4,100.09 4,127.06 4,143.73 4,170.70 4,385.70 4,523.60 4,302.01

Banks & Financials Services

MARK 46.70 45.97 46.31 46.52 46.87 47.21 47.42 47.77 48.75 52.12 50.43

CBQK 66.70 65.50 65.92 66.18 66.60 67.02 67.28 67.70 71.22 70.80 68.67

DHBK 56.70 55.17 55.85 56.28 56.97 57.65 58.08 58.77 57.62 58.80 59.88

QIBK 102.90 102.70 102.81 102.89 103.00 103.11 103.19 103.30 106.06 110.53 99.55

QIIK 82.50 79.83 80.60 81.07 81.83 82.60 83.07 83.83 83.58 85.92 83.75

Insurance

QATI 89.00 85.93 86.93 87.54 88.53 89.53 90.14 91.13 92.42 94.69 85.21

Consumer Goods & Services

MCGS 118.10 114.70 116.61 117.79 119.70 121.61 122.79 124.70 122.96 125.44 103.53

Industrials

IQCD 174.90 171.50 172.76 173.54 174.80 176.06 176.84 178.10 186.37 186.42 184.06

QEWS 190.00 186.00 187.15 187.85 189.00 190.15 190.85 192.00 186.44 187.00 184.74

GISS 94.50 90.70 92.27 93.23 94.80 96.37 97.33 98.90 109.36 115.24 103.49

QIGD 40.60 39.33 39.72 39.95 40.33 40.72 40.95 41.33 45.62 51.85 55.81

Real Estate

BRES 44.50 40.90 41.93 42.57 43.60 44.63 45.27 46.30 44.73 42.82 40.74

UDCD 23.30 22.80 23.02 23.15 23.37 23.59 23.72 23.94 25.78 27.57 25.83

ERES 14.95 14.74 14.82 14.88 14.97 15.05 15.11 15.20 17.80 18.77 21.39

MRDS 17.82 17.54 17.67 17.76 17.89 18.02 18.11 18.24 21.78 22.66 20.28

Telecommunication

ORDS 118.80 116.53 117.22 117.65 118.33 119.02 119.45 120.13 119.75 124.76 133.28

VFQS 15.53 15.38 15.46 15.52 15.61 15.69 15.75 15.84 18.33 19.68 18.33

Transportation

QGTS 22.95 22.42 22.59 22.69 22.87 23.04 23.14 23.32 23.44 23.99 23.30

QNNS 96.50 94.23 94.88 95.28 95.93 96.58 96.98 97.63 97.71 96.32 95.37 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price


Definitions:

Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening

and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is

lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they

compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.

Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.

Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the

security price to head lower.

SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus

considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative

price direction and potential support/resistance levels.

Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in

a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally

use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be

considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.

Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &

shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.

Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These

levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.

Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot

Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.


Contacts

Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian

Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst

Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC

Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666

Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 [email protected] [email protected] Doha, Qatar

Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS.

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