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Daily Technical Trader – Qatar

Wednesday, 24 December 2014

Stocks Covered Today

Ticker Price Target

GISS 90.10 82.10

GWCS 51.50 50.00

QSE Index

Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)

Last 12,183.52 -1.9 20.7

Resistance/Support

Levels 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 12,430 12,800 13,000

Support 12,200 11,430 11,230

QSE Index Commentary

Overview: Traders started to book some profits yesterday and as a result the Index dropped by 1.9%. The Index reached a strong resistance around the lower part of the medium-term downtrend channel, denoted with the solid red lines. It also reached the 50% Fibonacci retracement from the most recent drop. Indicators are showing more weakness for the Index. Expected Target Level: 12,430 – 12,800 Although it is becoming harder to reach, it is important to break above the 12,430 to reach the 12,800. We keep the recommendation to sell the bounces for the short-term. Suggested Stop-Loss Level: 12,200

QSE Index (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

QE Summary

Market Indicators 23 Dec 14 22 Dec 14 %Ch.

Value Traded (QR mn) 707.8 1,004.5 -29.5

Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 665.2 677.8 -1.9

Volume (mn) 16.3 24.7 -34.0

Number of Trans. 7,778 10,931 -28.8

Companies Traded 40 43 -7.0

Market Breadth 9:29 32:9 –

QE Indices

Market Indices Close 1D% RSI

Total Return 18,171.60 -1.9 45.4

All Share Index 3,097.13 -1.8 45.0

Banks 3,189.53 -2.4 48.0

Industrials 3,935.08 -1.7 42.7

Transportation 2,233.98 0.3 47.6

Real Estate 2,223.63 -2.2 39.5

Insurance 3,786.09 -1.2 53.3

Telecoms 1,420.80 -0.7 49.3

Consumer 6,775.65 0.0 45.8

Al Rayan Islamic 4,043.33 -1.4 44.8

RSI 14 (Over Bought)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

RSI 14 (Over Sold)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

IHGS 108.90 -10.0 19.7

AHCS 11.15 -1.8 25.0

QSE Index (30min)



GISS

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 90.10 -6.24 847,190

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 91.50 99.00 106.50

Support 82.00 80.00 75.00

Commentary

Overview: GISS may face further weakness. The name dropped more than 6% in the last session, reversing the sharp rise it witnessed over the past few sessions. Indicators are supporting the weakness argument. The short-term trend is still down; all moving averages are above the current price. On the daily chart, the MACD extended below the zero line and the RSI is around the neutral zone. That suggests bears are still controlling the scene. On the intraday chart, the MACD is losing its momentum (seen through its Histogram turn downward) and the RSI is falling from the overbought area. Although it is not a rule, but there is a price gap which extends from QR89.00 to QR79.50. This gap could be easily filled because of the expected consolidation. Expected Price Retreat: QR82.10 – QR79.50 The sell trigger will be in effect if QR89.00 is breached downward.

(Daily)


(Hourly)



GWCS

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 51.50 -2.83 139,825

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 52.50 53.00 56.50

Support 50.00 49.30 48.00

Commentary

Overview: GWCS was not able to push through the strong resistance around the QR53.00 price level. Previous tops, bundled SMAs, and previous bottoms increased the selling pressure around that level. In addition, oscillators are confirming further weakness as the daily chart shows the RSI and the MACD are both pointing down. On the hourly chart, we see that MACD is becoming weaker while still under the zero line and the RSI is at the neutral area. Hence we expect the weakness to continue further. Expected Price Retreat: QR50.00 – QR49.40 A break below the QR51.00 price may indicate further weakness and wait for stability around the target price for further recommendations.

(Daily)


(Hourly)



Intra-day Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels

Ticker Close 3rd

2nd

1st

Pivot 1st

2nd

3rd

50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA

QSE Index 12,183.52 12,021.58 12,113.38 12,170.10 12,261.90 12,353.70 12,410.42 12,502.22 13,089.51 13,380.03 12,937.06

Total Return 18,171.60 17,930.08 18,067.00 18,151.59 18,288.51 18,425.43 18,510.02 18,646.94 19,522.88 19,956.19 19,273.25

All Share 3,097.13 3,060.32 3,080.93 3,093.66 3,114.27 3,134.88 3,147.61 3,168.22 3,322.41 3,388.29 3,284.30

Al Rayan Islamic 4,043.33 3,970.26 4,005.53 4,027.32 4,062.59 4,097.86 4,119.65 4,154.92 4,394.29 4,526.96 4,297.99

Banks & Financials Services

MARK 46.50 45.07 45.70 46.09 46.72 47.35 47.74 48.37 48.89 52.22 50.38

CBQK 66.40 64.87 65.40 65.73 66.27 66.80 67.13 67.67 71.33 70.83 68.65

DHBK 56.60 55.33 55.75 56.01 56.43 56.85 57.11 57.53 57.64 58.81 59.89

QIBK 102.90 100.30 101.06 101.54 102.30 103.06 103.54 104.30 106.26 110.55 99.40

QIIK 81.70 78.50 79.57 80.23 81.30 82.37 83.03 84.10 83.66 85.94 83.70

Insurance

QATI 88.20 84.07 85.59 86.54 88.07 89.59 90.54 92.07 92.62 94.69 85.09

Consumer Goods & Services

MCGS 119.00 108.07 112.31 114.93 119.17 123.41 126.03 130.27 123.13 125.29 103.27

Industrials

IQCD 173.00 169.67 170.81 171.52 172.67 173.81 174.52 175.67 186.58 186.44 184.15

QEWS 187.00 184.93 185.70 186.17 186.93 187.70 188.17 188.93 186.38 186.93 184.63

GISS 90.10 85.03 87.90 89.67 92.53 95.40 97.17 100.03 109.82 115.45 103.38

QIGD 40.40 37.40 38.64 39.41 40.65 41.89 42.66 43.90 45.91 51.98 55.81

Real Estate

BRES 41.70 39.57 40.79 41.54 42.77 43.99 44.74 45.97 44.65 42.83 40.67

UDCD 23.26 22.15 22.57 22.83 23.25 23.67 23.93 24.35 25.87 27.61 25.82

ERES 14.82 14.53 14.68 14.77 14.91 15.06 15.15 15.29 17.90 18.84 21.39

MRDS 17.70 17.13 17.39 17.55 17.80 18.06 18.22 18.47 21.88 22.67 20.25

Telecommunication

ORDS 119.00 115.13 116.32 117.05 118.23 119.42 120.15 121.33 120.00 124.88 133.37

VFQS 15.50 14.95 15.19 15.34 15.59 15.83 15.98 16.23 18.43 19.72 18.31

Transportation

QGTS 22.67 21.78 22.04 22.20 22.46 22.72 22.88 23.14 23.46 24.00 23.30

QNNS 95.00 91.73 92.73 93.34 94.33 95.33 95.94 96.93 97.66 96.28 95.35 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price


Definitions:

Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening

and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is

lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they

compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.

Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.

Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the

security price to head lower.

SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus

considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative

price direction and potential support/resistance levels.

Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in

a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally

use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be

considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.

Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &

shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.

Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These

levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.

Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot

Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.


Contacts

Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian

Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst

Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC

Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666

Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 [email protected] [email protected] Doha, Qatar

Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS.

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