2 Excellence in Market Intelligence
Heating and Cooling Markets
Agenda
• Global HVAC market and dependence on China
• Air conditioning futures – evolution not revolution
• The new rising star – data centers and new solutions
• How much change at product level? Energy efficiency changes large or small?
• Powerful companies positioning themselves for the future in hvac
• The great gap in the markets
• Threats as the cloud and software take over our industry
2
3 Excellence in Market Intelligence
China domination – production, size and
growth
3
11.4
Total ‘Million
units: 1.5 94.7 1.0 8.5 0.4
China dominates except: • Unitary and chillers (USA)
• VRF Japan
• Moveables(Thailand)
China accounts nearly 45%of
world growth by volume: • Brazil and USA the other main
engines
4 Excellence in Market Intelligence
Products – Evolution not Revolution
4
Chilled ceilings &
beams
Energy efficiency
DOAS/
Indoor air quality
Solar cooling
Smart products
VRF
Green data
centre
cooling
Anti-
pollution
filters
Anti-
mosquito
Dedicated
Outdoor Air
Quality Systems
Solutions
provider
AC with
voice
control
5 Excellence in Market Intelligence
Gas boilers and alterative heat generators
Sales volume outlook by 2020
units
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
Italy UK Germany France Netherlands
n-c gas boilers c gas boilers heat pumps Hybrid heat pumps Fuel cells
By 2020 gas condensing boilers will still dominate main European heating markets
5
6 Excellence in Market Intelligence
AC : First tier
6
Gree
Daikin Mitsubishi Electric
FR
DE
IT
SP
UKOther Europe
USA/ Canada
Japan
China
FR
DE
IT
SP
UKOther Europe
USA/ Canada
Japan
China
Split
VRF
Other AC
FR
DE
IT
SP
UKOther Europe
USA/ Canada
Japan
China
7 Excellence in Market Intelligence 7
Many Opportunities in Retrofit
Non-Residential Building Stock by Age, EU-27,
2011
Non-Residential Building Stock by Age, USA , 2011
Pre 1960
41%
1960 - 1990
44%
1991 - 2010
Pre 1960 1960 - 1990
1991 - 2010
15%
33%
52%
15%
EU USA
Buildings built 1960 – 1990 represent big retrofit opportunity….
8 Excellence in Market Intelligence
All heading for the cloud?
8
The Cloud –
• 24 hr Universal Access
• OPEX not CAPEX
Cyber security
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
BEMS/BACSMonitoring &Management - inthe CloudPenetration
Source: BSRIA Estimates
Assumes 10-11%
CAGR up to 2020
9 Excellence in Market Intelligence
Will controls just become another
commodity?
9
Automation companies
lose the field to the IT
software/ web giants?
How to move up the
value-chain?
New Skills Needed
10 Excellence in Market Intelligence
BSRIA – more expert than the experts
(because we talk to them all!)
10
1000s sales visits/contacts at
Trade Fairs & Exhibitions
Local Partnerships
500+ BSRIA Publications
In-house engineers &
Test laboratory
Electronic journals
BSRIA’s technical library
Data collection groups
Congresses
1000s research visits/2000 telephone
and interviews each year