Environmental Physics & Design (ePad) Research Group:
Energy & Sustainability Research Division
Jacob Chapman
th April 2015
COUPLING MULTI-AGENT STOCHASTIC SIMULATION
• Jacob Chapman • Peer-Olaf Siebers • Darren Robinson
• The University of Nottingham
Environmental Physics & Design (ePad) Research Group:
Energy & Sustainability Research Division
Jacob Chapman
th April 2015
Building Simulation
Environmental Physics & Design (ePad) Research Group:
Energy & Sustainability Research Division
Jacob Chapman
th April 2015
Building Simulation
Environmental Physics & Design (ePad) Research Group:
Energy & Sustainability Research Division
Jacob Chapman
th April 2015
The Performance Gap• Deviations between predicted and real world performance
• Construction materials used • workmanship • Uncertainties of model/ algorithms • Climate • Occupants
• Lead to stochastic models of behaviour • Generic method integrating them • Coupled with building simulation
Environmental Physics & Design (ePad) Research Group:
Energy & Sustainability Research Division
Jacob Chapman
th April 2015
Overview• Aims • Developed Model • Case Study • Results • Future Work • Internship • Conclusion
Environmental Physics & Design (ePad) Research Group:
Energy & Sustainability Research Division
Jacob Chapman
th April 2015
Aims• Improve simulated building performance in response to
agents’ stochastic decisions
Objectives• Present a framework for the integration of stochastic models • Be able to assign archetypes to an agent template • Ability to consider social interactions • Integrate framework within a building simulation environment
Environmental Physics & Design (ePad) Research Group:
Energy & Sustainability Research Division
Jacob Chapman
th April 2015
Methodology• Multi Agent Simulation • Influenced through stochastic models
• MAS was developed in the social science’s to test theory’s • Economics • Emergency scenarios • Transport planning
• Now new models influenced by real world data
Environmental Physics & Design (ePad) Research Group:
Energy & Sustainability Research Division
Jacob Chapman
th April 2015
Framework• No-MASS • Nottingham Multi Agent
Stochastic Simulation • Agents are software objects and
therefor have no mass!!
Environmental Physics & Design (ePad) Research Group:
Energy & Sustainability Research Division
Jacob Chapman
th April 2015
Diversity Between Agents• Current archetypes:
• Retired • Adults with
children • Adults without
children • Generic
Environmental Physics & Design (ePad) Research Group:
Energy & Sustainability Research Division
Jacob Chapman
th April 2015
Activities• Location
Environmental Physics & Design (ePad) Research Group:
Energy & Sustainability Research Division
Jacob Chapman
th April 2015
Presence
Environmental Physics & Design (ePad) Research Group:
Energy & Sustainability Research Division
Jacob Chapman
th April 2015
Building Environment• EnergyPlus • FMI Standard
Environmental Physics & Design (ePad) Research Group:
Energy & Sustainability Research Division
Jacob Chapman
th April 2015
States• Retrieve pre-
processed states • Set parameters • Calculate
metabolic gains
Environmental Physics & Design (ePad) Research Group:
Energy & Sustainability Research Division
Jacob Chapman
th April 2015
Group Interactions
• Shading • Windows • Lights
Environmental Physics & Design (ePad) Research Group:
Energy & Sustainability Research Division
Jacob Chapman
th April 2015
MAS Platfom• Interactive /
reactive occupants
• Empirically informed
• Diverse population
Environmental Physics & Design (ePad) Research Group:
Energy & Sustainability Research Division
Jacob Chapman
th April 2015
Agent State Machine• Allows for the definition of Agents • Easy to change order of models • Allows for agent communication • Transitions between states on:
• Time • Probabilities • Event
• Allows for history within states • Sub states
Environmental Physics & Design (ePad) Research Group:
Energy & Sustainability Research Division
Jacob Chapman
th April 2015
Occupant States - Office
Environmental Physics & Design (ePad) Research Group:
Energy & Sustainability Research Division
Jacob Chapman
th April 2015
Occupant States - House
Environmental Physics & Design (ePad) Research Group:
Energy & Sustainability Research Division
Jacob Chapman
th April 2015
Occupant States - House Sub States
Environmental Physics & Design (ePad) Research Group:
Energy & Sustainability Research Division
Jacob Chapman
th April 2015
Integration Of Pragmatic Rules
Environmental Physics & Design (ePad) Research Group:
Energy & Sustainability Research Division
Jacob Chapman
th April 2015
FMI - Functional Mockup Interface• Generic programming interface • Allows for a Co-Simulation environment • XML defines the schema of coupling • C++ arrays to pass data • Timestep intervals • Readily Available in EnergyPlus and other simulation tools • Portable
Environmental Physics & Design (ePad) Research Group:
Energy & Sustainability Research Division
Jacob Chapman
th April 2015
FMI - Parameter Description
Environmental Physics & Design (ePad) Research Group:
Energy & Sustainability Research Division
Jacob Chapman
th April 2015
FMI - Functional Mockup Interface
• Humidity • Indoor Temperature • External Temperature • Indoor illuminance • External illuminance • Rain
Multi-Agent Simulation
Platform
EnergyPlus
Environmental Physics & Design (ePad) Research Group:
Energy & Sustainability Research Division
Jacob Chapman
th April 2015
FMI - Functional Mockup Interface
• Location • Window status • Shade status • Metabolic gains • Light status
Multi-Agent Simulation
Platform
EnergyPlus
Environmental Physics & Design (ePad) Research Group:
Energy & Sustainability Research Division
Jacob Chapman
th April 2015
Case Study• House and office • Based in Nottingham, UK and Geneva, Switzerland • Two agents, profile of adults no children
Environmental Physics & Design (ePad) Research Group:
Energy & Sustainability Research Division
Jacob Chapman
th April 2015
Mean Convergence• Convergence at 80
simulations
Environmental Physics & Design (ePad) Research Group:
Energy & Sustainability Research Division
Jacob Chapman
th April 2015
Results
Distribution QQ Plots
Geneva
Nottingham
Environmental Physics & Design (ePad) Research Group:
Energy & Sustainability Research Division
Jacob Chapman
th April 2015
e f g h
4060
8010
012
0
Hea
ting
Dem
and(
kWh/
m2.
y)
a b c d
4060
8010
012
0
Hea
ting
Dem
and(
kWh/
m2.
y)
Office House
Environmental Physics & Design (ePad) Research Group:
Energy & Sustainability Research Division
Jacob Chapman
th April 2015
Results - Geneva
Agent Deterministic
Environmental Physics & Design (ePad) Research Group:
Energy & Sustainability Research Division
Jacob Chapman
th April 2015
Results - Nottingham
Agent Deterministic
Environmental Physics & Design (ePad) Research Group:
Energy & Sustainability Research Division
Jacob Chapman
th April 2015
Results - Geneva States
Windows Lights Shading
Environmental Physics & Design (ePad) Research Group:
Energy & Sustainability Research Division
Jacob Chapman
th April 2015
Results - Nottingham States
Windows Lights Shading
Environmental Physics & Design (ePad) Research Group:
Energy & Sustainability Research Division
Jacob Chapman
th April 2015
Future Work • Add New Models • Social Interaction • Diversity and Household Demographics • Validation
Environmental Physics & Design (ePad) Research Group:
Energy & Sustainability Research Division
Jacob Chapman
th April 2015
Future Work: • Add
New models
Environmental Physics & Design (ePad) Research Group:
Energy & Sustainability Research Division
Jacob Chapman
th April 2015
Future Work: Social Interaction
Environmental Physics & Design (ePad) Research Group:
Energy & Sustainability Research Division
Jacob Chapman
th April 2015
DesignBuilder• Internship • To integrate the MAS platform into design builder • Allow practitioners to use the new representation of
occupants to make informed decisions about how occupants actually use buildings
Environmental Physics & Design (ePad) Research Group:
Energy & Sustainability Research Division
Jacob Chapman
th April 2015
How does this look in DB
Environmental Physics & Design (ePad) Research Group:
Energy & Sustainability Research Division
Jacob Chapman
th April 2015
Environmental Physics & Design (ePad) Research Group:
Energy & Sustainability Research Division
Jacob Chapman
th April 2015
Conclusion• There is a performance gap • Reduced through new No-MASS
Environmental Physics & Design (ePad) Research Group:
Energy & Sustainability Research Division
Jacob Chapman
th April 2015
Thank You