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Economic and Housing
OutlookBy Lawrence Yun, Ph.D.Chief Economist, National Association of REALTORS®
Presentation at NAR Annual Meetings
San Diego, CA
November 13, 2015
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Lifetime Wealth at All-Time High
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
1 9 9 0 - Q 1
1 9 9 1 - Q 2
1 9 9 2 - Q 3
1 9 9 3 - Q 4
1 9 9 5 - Q 1
1 9 9 6 - Q 2
1 9 9 7 - Q 3
1 9 9 8 - Q 4
2 0 0 0 - Q 1
2 0 0 1 - Q 2
2 0 0 2 - Q 3
2 0 0 3 - Q 4
2 0 0 5 - Q 1
2 0 0 6 - Q 2
2 0 0 7 - Q 3
2 0 0 8 - Q 4
2 0 1 0 - Q 1
2 0 1 1 - Q 2
2 0 1 2 - Q 3
2 0 1 3 - Q 4
2 0 1 5 - Q 1
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Dow Jones Industrial Average(Doubling since 2009)
0
2000
4000
6000
800010000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
2 0 0 9 - J a
n
2 0 0 9 - M a
y
2 0 0 9 - S e
p
2 0 1 0 - J a
n
2 0 1 0 - M a
y
2 0 1 0 - S e
p
2 0 1 1 - J a
n
2 0 1 1 - M a
y
2 0 1 1 - S e
p
2 0 1 2 - J a
n
2 0 1 2 - M a
y
2 0 1 2 - S e
p
2 0 1 3 - J a
n
2 0 1 3 - M a
y
2 0 1 3 - S e
p
2 0 1 4 - J a
n
2 0 1 4 - M a
y
2 0 1 4 - S e
p
2 0 1 5 - J a
n
2 0 1 5 - M a
y
2 0 1 5 - S e
p
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GDP GrowthInconsistent with 2.2% average since 2014
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
2007
- Q1
2007
- Q3
2008
- Q1
2008
- Q3
2009
- Q1
2009
- Q3
2010
- Q1
2010
- Q3
2011
- Q1
2011
- Q3
2012
- Q1
2012
- Q3
2013
- Q1
2013
- Q3
2014
- Q1
2014
- Q3
2015
- Q1
2015
- Q3
Annualized Growth Rate
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Sluggish Growth + Gap after
Recession($1.7 trillion gap … $5,000 per person)
10000
11000
12000
13000
14000
15000
16000
17000
18000
1998 - Q1 2000 - Q1 2002 - Q1 2004 - Q1 2006 - Q1 2008 - Q1 2010 - Q1 2012 - Q1
GDP in 2009 Dollars
Real GDP Real GDP W/O Recession
3% Growth Line
2.2% Growth Line
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Residential Construction and
SalesMore consistent with 6.6% average since 2014
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
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Homeownership Rate(seasonally adjusted … 50-year low)
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
1 9 9 5 - Q 1
1 9 9 5 - Q 4
1 9 9 6 - Q 3
1 9 9 7 - Q 2
1 9 9 8 - Q 1
1 9 9 8 - Q 4
1 9 9 9 - Q 3
2 0 0 0 - Q 2
2 0 0 1 - Q 1
2 0 0 1 - Q 4
2 0 0 2 - Q 3
2 0 0 3 - Q 2
2 0 0 4 - Q 1
2 0 0 4 - Q 4
2 0 0 5 - Q 3
2 0 0 6 - Q 2
2 0 0 7 - Q 1
2 0 0 7 - Q 4
2 0 0 8 - Q 3
2 0 0 9 - Q 2
2 0 1 0 - Q 1
2 0 1 0 - Q 4
2 0 1 1 - Q 3
2 0 1 2 - Q 2
2 0 1 3 - Q 1
2 0 1 3 - Q 4
2 0 1 4 - Q 3
2 0 1 5 - Q 2
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Young People: Under 35 years oldHistoric Low Homeownership Rate
33
35
37
39
41
43
45
1 9 9 5 - Q 1
1 9 9 6 - Q 1
1 9 9 7 - Q 1
1 9 9 8 - Q 1
1 9 9 9 - Q 1
2 0 0 0 - Q 1
2 0 0 1 - Q 1
2 0 0 2 - Q 1
2 0 0 3 - Q 1
2 0 0 4 - Q 1
2 0 0 5 - Q 1
2 0 0 6 - Q 1
2 0 0 7 - Q 1
2 0 0 8 - Q 1
2 0 0 9 - Q 1
2 0 1 0 - Q 1
2 0 1 1 - Q 1
2 0 1 2 - Q 1
2 0 1 3 - Q 1
2 0 1 4 - Q 1
2 0 1 5 - Q 1
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First-time collapse … why? Lowest in nearly 30 years … since 1987
30%
50%
33% 32%
%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1 9 8 1
1 9 8 5
1 9 8 7
1 9 8 9
1 9 9 1
1 9 9 3
1 9 9 5
1 9 9 7
1 9 9 9
2 0 0 1
2 0 0 3
2 0 0 4
2 0 0 5
2 0 0 6
2 0 0 7
2 0 0 8
2 0 0 9
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3
2 0 1 4
2 0 1 5
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Difficulty Facing First-time Buyers –
• Student loan debt, even among successful first-time home buyers:
– 41% have student loan debt and typical amount is$25,000
• No affordable inventory: – 51% hardest task is finding the right property
• Competition from vacation buyers and investors
–
Buying similar priced/size homes and paying all cash
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Student Loan(in $billion)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
12001400
2 0 0 6 - Q 1
2 0 0 6 - Q 3
2 0 0 7 - Q 1
2 0 0 7 - Q 3
2 0 0 8 - Q 1
2 0 0 8 - Q 3
2 0 0 9 - Q 1
2 0 0 9 - Q 3
2 0 1 0 - Q 1
2 0 1 0 - Q 3
2 0 1 1 - Q 1
2 0 1 1 - Q 3
2 0 1 2 - Q 1
2 0 1 2 - Q 3
2 0 1 3 - Q 1
2 0 1 3 - Q 3
2 0 1 4 - Q 1
2 0 1 4 - Q 3
2 0 1 5 - Q 1
2 0 1 5 - Q 3
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H O M E S
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H.O.M.E. Survey(Housing Opportunity and Market
Experience)• Desire to own remains strong and
is strengthening:
– 87 percent of Americans believehomeownership is part of theirpersonal American Dream
– HIGHER for 18-24 year olds at 91percent
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H O M E S
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H.O.M.E. Survey(Housing Opportunity and Market
Experience)
83 percent of Americans
believe buying is a good
financial decision
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Optimism—View Home as
Good Financial Investment
2015 Profile of Generational Trends
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
34 and younger 35 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 68 69 to 89
42 39 40 39 38
30 30 26 2620
12 1312 12
15
Better than stocks About as good as stocks Not as good as stocks
84%82% 77% 77%
72%
h ll h
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Homeownership Rate Fall Further …
why?Net New
RentersIn thousands
Net New
HomeownersIn thousands
Homeownership Rate
only among the NewPeople
2008 482 -67 0%
2009 713 -90 0%
2010 771 -194 0%
2011 974 -421 0%
2012 1120 -193 0%
2013 599 55.5 9%
2014 1112 -89 0%
2015 forecast 800 200 30%
2016 forecast 600 600 50%
2017 forecast 500 700 58%
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Even with Falling ownership
rate, Home Sales to Rise Further
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
7000000
8000000
9000000
2 0 0 0
2 0 0 1
2 0 0 2
2 0 0 3
2 0 0 4
2 0 0 5
2 0 0 6
2 0 0 7
2 0 0 8
2 0 0 9
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3
2 0 1 4
2 0 1 5
New
Existing
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Housing Forecast made in
November 2014
2015Forecast
(made one
year ago)
2015Likely
Housing Starts 1.3 millionWas Too high
1.1 million
New Home Sales 620,000
Was Little high
570,000
Existing Home Sales 5.3 million
Was Right On
5.3 million
Median Price Growth + 4%
Was Too Low
+ 6%
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Housing Forecast Good for 2016
2013 2014 2015Likely
2016Forecast
Housing Starts 925,000 1 million 1.1 million 1.4 million
New Home
Sales
430,000 437,000 570,000 720,000
Existing Home
Sales
5.1 million 4.9 million 5.3 million 5.4 to 5.5
million
Median Price
Growth
+ 11.5% + 5.7% + 6% +5%
30-year Rate 4.0% 4.2% 3.8% 4.5%
M thl P di S l I d
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Monthly Pending Sales IndexLosing Momentum
(Seasonally Adjusted)
70.075.0
80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
115.0
2011 -
Jan
2011 -
May
2011 -
Sep
2012 -
Jan
2012 -
May
2012 -
Sep
2013 -
Jan
2013 -
May
2013 -
Sep
2014 -
Jan
2014 -
May
2014 -
Sep
2015 -
Jan
2015 -
May
2015 -
Sep
Source: NAR
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Momentum in Pending Contract(% change from one year ago)
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2 0 1 1 - J a n
2 0 1 1 - A p r
2 0 1 1 - J u l
2 0 1 1 - O c t
2 0 1 2 - J a n
2 0 1 2 - A p r
2 0 1 2 - J u l
2 0 1 2 - O c t
2 0 1 3 - J a n
2 0 1 3 - A p r
2 0 1 3 - J u l
2 0 1 3 - O c t
2 0 1 4 - J a n
2 0 1 4 - A p r
2 0 1 4 - J u l
2 0 1 4 - O c t
2 0 1 5 - J a n
2 0 1 5 - A p r
2 0 1 5 - J u l
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Trigger? Jump in Mortgage Rate
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
5.50
2 0 1 1 - J a
n
2 0 1 1 - A p r
2 0 1 1 - J
u l
2 0 1 1 - O
c t
2 0 1 2 - J a
n
2 0 1 2 - A p r
2 0 1 2 - J
u l
2 0 1 2 - O
c t
2 0 1 3 - J a
n
2 0 1 3 - A p r
2 0 1 3 - J
u l
2 0 1 3 - O
c t
2 0 1 4 - J a
n
2 0 1 4 - A p r
2 0 1 4 - J
u l
2 0 1 4 - O
c t
2 0 1 5 - J a
n
2 0 1 5 - A p r
2 0 1 5 - J
u l
2 0 1 5 - O
c t
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Fed Rate Hike in
December?
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Fed Rate Hike in December
then again in March
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Fed Rate Hike in December
then again in March
then again in August
then again in …
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Fed Policy and Mortgage Rate
0
1
2
3
45
6
7
8
9
2 0 0 0 - J a n
2 0 0 0 - J u
l
2 0 0 1 - J a n
2 0 0 1 - J u
l
2 0 0 2 - J a n
2 0 0 2 - J u
l
2 0 0 3 - J a n
2 0 0 3 - J u
l
2 0 0 4 - J a n
2 0 0 4 - J u
l
2 0 0 5 - J a n
2 0 0 5 - J u
l
2 0 0 6 - J a n
2 0 0 6 - J u
l
2 0 0 7 - J a n
2 0 0 7 - J u
l
2 0 0 8 - J a n
2 0 0 8 - J u
l
2 0 0 9 - J a n
2 0 0 9 - J u
l
2 0 1 0 - J a n
2 0 1 0 - J u
l
2 0 1 1 - J a n
2 0 1 1 - J u
l
2 0 1 2 - J a n
2 0 1 2 - J u
l
2 0 1 3 - J a n
2 0 1 3 - J u
l
2 0 1 4 - J a n
2 0 1 4 - J u
l
2 0 1 5 - J a n
2 0 1 5 - J u
l
Mortgage Rate Fed Funds Rate
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What Determines Bond Yields?
• Federal Reserve’s short-term rate changes
• Inflation and erosion of purchasing power
• Foreign capital flow and demand for dollar
• Savings rate• U.S. budget deficit
• Printing of money
• …
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Federal Deficit - Shrinking( $ million, 12 month total)
-1600000
-1400000
-1200000
-1000000
-800000
-600000
-400000
-200000
0
200000
400000
2000
- Jan
2001
- Jan
2002
- Jan
2003
- Jan
2004
- Jan
2005
- Jan
2006
- Jan
2007
- Jan
2008
- Jan
2009
- Jan
2010
- Jan
2011
- Jan
2012
- Jan
2013
- Jan
2014
- Jan
2015
- Jan
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Rents Rising at 7-year high
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2 0 0 0 - J a n
2 0 0 0 - J u l
2 0 0 1 - J a n
2 0 0 1 - J u l
2 0 0 2 - J a n
2 0 0 2 - J u l
2 0 0 3 - J a n
2 0 0 3 - J u l
2 0 0 4 - J a n
2 0 0 4 - J u l
2 0 0 5 - J a n
2 0 0 5 - J u l
2 0 0 6 - J a n
2 0 0 6 - J u l
2 0 0 7 - J a n
2 0 0 7 - J u l
2 0 0 8 - J a n
2 0 0 8 - J u l
2 0 0 9 - J a n
2 0 0 9 - J u l
2 0 1 0 - J a n
2 0 1 0 - J u l
2 0 1 1 - J a n
2 0 1 1 - J u l
2 0 1 2 - J a n
2 0 1 2 - J u l
2 0 1 3 - J a n
2 0 1 3 - J u l
2 0 1 4 - J a n
2 0 1 4 - J u l
2 0 1 5 - J a n
2 0 1 5 - J u l
Renters' Rent
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Rental Vacancy Rate(30-year low)
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
2 0 0 0 - Q 1
2 0 0 0 - Q 3
2 0 0 1 - Q 1
2 0 0 1 - Q 3
2 0 0 2 - Q 1
2 0 0 2 - Q 3
2 0 0 3 - Q 1
2 0 0 3 - Q 3
2 0 0 4 - Q 1
2 0 0 4 - Q 3
2 0 0 5 - Q 1
2 0 0 5 - Q 3
2 0 0 6 - Q 1
2 0 0 6 - Q 3
2 0 0 7 - Q 1
2 0 0 7 - Q 3
2 0 0 8 - Q 1
2 0 0 8 - Q 3
2 0 0 9 - Q 1
2 0 0 9 - Q 3
2 0 1 0 - Q 1
2 0 1 0 - Q 3
2 0 1 1 - Q 1
2 0 1 1 - Q 3
2 0 1 2 - Q 1
2 0 1 2 - Q 3
2 0 1 3 - Q 1
2 0 1 3 - Q 3
2 0 1 4 - Q 1
2 0 1 4 - Q 3
2 0 1 5 - Q 1
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Credit Box Opens?
• FICO New Method
• Fannie/Freddie
–
Lower down payment products• FHA premiums … lowered
• Portfolio Lending … historic low
mortgage default rates on recentvintages (2010-2014)
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Fannie/Freddie G-fees for
Highways?
s ng ome r ce s ecom ng
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s ng ome r ce s ecom ngObstacle
(Median National Existing Home Price)
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
220,000
240,000260,000
2 0 0 0 - J a n
2 0 0 0 - J u l
2 0 0 1 - J a n
2 0 0 1 - J u l
2 0 0 2 - J a n
2 0 0 2 - J u l
2 0 0 3 - J a n
2 0 0 3 - J u l
2 0 0 4 - J a n
2 0 0 4 - J u l
2 0 0 5 - J a n
2 0 0 5 - J u l
2 0 0 6 - J a n
2 0 0 6 - J u l
2 0 0 7 - J a n
2 0 0 7 - J u l
2 0 0 8 - J a n
2 0 0 8 - J u l
2 0 0 9 - J a n
2 0 0 9 - J u l
2 0 1 0 - J a n
2 0 1 0 - J u l
2 0 1 1 - J a n
2 0 1 1 - J u l
2 0 1 2 - J a n
2 0 1 2 - J u l
2 0 1 3 - J a n
2 0 1 3 - J u l
2 0 1 4 - J a n
2 0 1 4 - J u l
2 0 1 5 - J a n
2 0 1 5 - J u l
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New Home Price … Even Higher
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
2 0 0 0 - J a n
2 0 0 0 - J u l
2 0 0 1 - J a n
2 0 0 1 - J u l
2 0 0 2 - J a n
2 0 0 2 - J u l
2 0 0 3 - J a n
2 0 0 3 - J u l
2 0 0 4 - J a n
2 0 0 4 - J u l
2 0 0 5 - J a n
2 0 0 5 - J u l
2 0 0 6 - J a n
2 0 0 6 - J u l
2 0 0 7 - J a n
2 0 0 7 - J u l
2 0 0 8 - J a n
2 0 0 8 - J u l
2 0 0 9 - J a n
2 0 0 9 - J u l
2 0 1 0 - J a n
2 0 1 0 - J u l
2 0 1 1 - J a n
2 0 1 1 - J u l
2 0 1 2 - J a n
2 0 1 2 - J u l
2 0 1 3 - J a n
2 0 1 3 - J u l
2 0 1 4 - J a n
2 0 1 4 - J u l
2 0 1 5 - J a n
2 0 1 5 - J u l
New
Existing
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Condos Underperforming(% change from 12 months ago in September)
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Price Growth
Sales
Single-family
Condominium
Aff d bilit S l ti
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Affordability Solution …
Tiny Home Movement?
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R l S l ti t Aff d bilit
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Real Solution to Affordability …
More Supply• More Supply
– Existing Homeowners List Homes
–Shadow Inventory of DistressedHomes
– Newly Constructed Homes
– More Rental Housing … Can beconverted to Condominiums Later
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Pent-Up Home Sellers
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2001 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Median Years of Tenure Before Moving
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National Shadow Inventory
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National Shadow Inventory(% of mortgages in foreclosure or late
payment)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2 0 0 0 - Q
1
2 0 0 0 - Q
4
2 0 0 1 - Q
3
2 0 0 2 - Q
2
2 0 0 3 - Q
1
2 0 0 3 - Q
4
2 0 0 4 - Q
3
2 0 0 5 - Q
2
2 0 0 6 - Q
1
2 0 0 6 - Q
4
2 0 0 7 - Q
3
2 0 0 8 - Q
2
2 0 0 9 - Q
1
2 0 0 9 - Q
4
2 0 1 0 - Q
3
2 0 1 1 - Q
2
2 0 1 2 - Q
1
2 0 1 2 - Q
4
2 0 1 3 - Q
3
2 0 1 4 - Q
2
2 0 1 5 - Q
1
4%
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Housing Starts
0
200
400
600
2000 -
Jan
2001 -
Jan
2002 -
Jan
2003 -
Jan
2004 -
Jan
2005 -
Jan
2006 -
Jan
2007 -
Jan
2008 -
Jan
2009 -
Jan
2010 -
Jan
2011 -
Jan
2012 -
Jan
2013 -
Jan
2014 -
Jan
2015 -
Jan
MultifamilyThousand units
0
1000
2000
2000 -
Jan
2001 -
Jan
2002 -
Jan
2003 -
Jan
2004 -
Jan
2005 -
Jan
2006 -
Jan
2007 -
Jan
2008 -
Jan
2009 -
Jan
2010 -
Jan
2011 -
Jan
2012 -
Jan
2013 -
Jan
2014 -
Jan
2015 -
Jan
Single-family
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Massive Housing Shortage(from 2012 to 2015)
Metro Job Creation New Home
Construction
Ratio
San Francisco-
Oakland
234,000 30,000 7.8
Grand Rapids 46,000 6,000 7.8
San Jose 118,000 23,000 5.1
San Diego 101,000 21,000 4.9
Miami-Ft.
Lauderdale
191,000 48,000 3.9
Salt Lake City 57,000 15,000 3.9
New York City 400,000 114,000 3.5
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Why Would Home Sales Rise?
• Rising Mortgage Rates – Not Good
• Too Fast Rising Prices – Not Good
• Housing Equity for Pent-up Sellers – Good
• Return Boomerang Buyers - Good• Steadily increased supply - Good
• Job creation – Super Good
Trade Up Opportunities
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Trade-Up Opportunitiesfrom Housing Equity
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2 0 0 0 - Q 1
2 0 0 0 - Q 3
2 0 0 1 - Q 1
2 0 0 1 - Q 3
2 0 0 2 - Q 1
2 0 0 2 - Q 3
2 0 0 3 - Q 1
2 0 0 3 - Q 3
2 0 0 4 - Q 1
2 0 0 4 - Q 3
2 0 0 5 - Q 1
2 0 0 5 - Q 3
2 0 0 6 - Q 1
2 0 0 6 - Q 3
2 0 0 7 - Q 1
2 0 0 7 - Q 3
2 0 0 8 - Q 1
2 0 0 8 - Q 3
2 0 0 9 - Q 1
2 0 0 9 - Q 3
2 0 1 0 - Q 1
2 0 1 0 - Q 3
2 0 1 1 - Q 1
2 0 1 1 - Q 3
2 0 1 2 - Q 1
2 0 1 2 - Q 3
2 0 1 3 - Q 1
2 0 1 3 - Q 3
2 0 1 4 - Q 1
2 0 1 4 - Q 3
2 0 1 5 - Q 1
Real Estate Value Mortgage Debt
$ billion
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Return Buyers
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