2012 Fire Season Wrap-up & 2013 OutlookAlyssa Stewart
DNRC Assistant Center Manager, [email protected] 406-449-5475
The Northern Rockies Geographic Area
Northern Idaho, Montana, Yellowstone National Park, North Dakota and a small portion of South Dakota.
http://gacc.nifc.gov/nrcc
So far in 2012 there have been 3,272 fires for 1,407,026 acres, including 159 large fires in the NRGA – at least one every month
except February.
2012 Fire Cause:60% human, 40%
lightning, on par with 10-yr average, 58% human,
42% lightning
Clark Fork River Basin
An estimated 527 fires for 148,154 acres burned in the Clark Fork River Basin.
This is 16% of the fires and 11% of the total acres burned in the NRGA.
Fall Moisture and Preexisting Drought
Conditions
Winter Snowpack
Spring Factor
July Temperatures
and Precipitation
Live/Dead Fuel Moisture
Summer Convection
ENSO State
Factors that Influence Fire Season SeverityFactors that Influence Fire Season Severity
>
Snowpack Snowpack is generally is generally 50%50%--75% of 75% of
normalnormal
Fall Precip Fall Precip was 50was 50--90% 90% of normalof normal
Early Early Spring?Spring?
Quick melt Quick melt off of off of
snowpack?snowpack?
??
2011-2012 snowpack normal to a little less
2011 Fall a little dry but not too bad.
Spring was dry!
Very dry & hot June, September
driest in MT history.
Very convective summer.
100-hr and 1000-hr fuel moistures
largely below normal and set new minimums
Why was 2012 a record year in the NRGA?
Energy Release Component & 1000-hr Fuel Graphs by Predictive Service Area
Energy Release Component (ERC): Composite value that relates fuel moisture to potential heat release per unit of flaming area, predictor
of fire intensity – how hot a fire could burn. Based on worst case scenario.
All graphs for Fuel Model G, dense conifer – includes 1000 hour fuels that are less susceptible to daily weather changes like a flashy fuel –
national standard.
Northern Panhandle Idaho/Northwest Montana
Southern Panhandle Idaho/Western Montana
North Central Idaho/Southwest Montana
Glacier National Park/Wildernesses
Big Hole Montana
Fire danger takes current and previous weather, fuel type, and live and dead fuel moisture into account.
Fall Moisture and Preexisting Drought
Conditions
Winter Snowpack
Spring Factor
July Temperatures
and Precipitation
Live/Dead Fuel Moisture
Summer Convection
ENSO State
Factors that Influence Fire Season SeverityFactors that Influence Fire Season Severity
>
Snowpack Snowpack is generally is generally 50%50%--75% of 75% of
normalnormal
Fall Precip Fall Precip was 50was 50--90% 90% of normalof normal
Early Early Spring?Spring?
Quick melt Quick melt off of off of
snowpack?snowpack?
??
2013 Outlook?
Recommended
