Download pdf - 2009 White Paper on Strategic Arms and Defence

2009 White Paper on Strategic Arms and Defence

ADF

Department of Research

and Advanced Projects

2


Overview

ThestateofAkimonad’sdeterrentandanti‐ballisticmissilesystemisatoneofitsworstlevelssinceitsinception.Weaponsystemscurrentlyinusefordeliveryanddefenseofnuclearweaponshavebecomeextremelyoutdatedandhavesubsequentlycreatedadangerousstrategicsituation.Becauseofthisdisablingobsolescence,Akimonad’snucleardeterrentisscarcelyadeterrentatall.ThesystemcouldberendereduselessifAkimonadwasattackedinafirst‐strikebyaforeignpower.

TheproblembeginswithAkimonad’santi‐ballisticmissilesystem.Whilethissystemismodern,itisconcentratedlargelyintheNavy.ShouldtheNavybesentabroadtofightawar–asisthelikelycaseforanuclearattackonAkimonad–thenmostofAkimonad’sballisticmissileprotectionwouldbegoneandthehomelandwouldbeleftnearlydefenselessagainstanuclearassault.Millionscouldbekilled,andastrategicresponsecouldbemadeimpossible.

Thisproblemiscompoundedbytheoutdateddesignofcurrentland‐basednuclearmissiles.Allcurrentlycommissionedmissilesaresilo‐based;however,notonesiloinAkimonadisratedtowithstandadirecthitbyanuclearexplosive,whichisexactlythetypethatwouldbeencounteredinadecapitatingnuclearstrike.ThismeansthatAkimonad’snucleardeterrentcouldbedestroyedwithsurprisingease.

Themissilesthemselveswouldfairpoorlyiftheywereeverlaunched.TheyfeaturenomoderndecoysystemsofanykindandtheyarenotmaneuverableenoughtodefeatABMsystems.Anattemptataretaliatorystrikecouldbeneutralizedormarginalizedbytheenemy.

TheonlyeffectiveweaponcurrentlyinthenationalarsenalistheOdysseusair‐launchedICBM.Itiseasytotransportanddeliver,anditschoiceoflaunchprofilesandwarheadshasservedStrategicAirCommandwellovertheyears.TheOdysseuscaneasilymaskitslaunchprofilebyappearingtobenothingmorethanasatellitelaunch,anditsorbitalcapabilitiescandisguisewhichnationitwasfiredfrom.

However,theOdysseusisjustonesmallpartofAkimonad’snucleararsenal,andthereareonlyarelativehandfulofOdysseus’stockpiledcomparedtotheland‐basednucleararsenal.TheOdysseusalonewillnotmakeupfortheshortcomingsoftheentireStrategicDefensesystem.

Aftercarefulstudy,theDepartmentofResearchandAdvancedProjectshascompiledalistofrecommendationsthatwillimprovethequalityandperformanceofAkimonad’sstrategicarmsanddefence.

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Review of Current Munitions and Technology

TheDepartmentofResearchandAdvancedProjectshasconductedasurveyofthecurrentclassesofICBMsandABMscurrentlyinserviceonland.Forthepurposesofthisdocument,navalinventoryhasbeenexcluded.

Alltotaled,Akimonadcurrentlyhas2220ICBMsinservice.MostoftheseICBMsarescheduledfordecommissioningwithintwoyears.ItwouldbeprudenttoreplacethesemissilesquicklygiventhegeopoliticalsituationaroundHavenatthecurrenttime.Figure1showsthepresentnumbersofICBMsandABMsinserviceandreserve,aswellaswhentheyareexpectedtorequirereplacementbyothersystems.

Akimonad’sABMsystemsarealsoconsiderablyoutdated.Currentlyonlyfiftylong‐rangemissilesremainandwillbewithdrawnwithinseveralmonths.Therestoftheland‐basedABMsareshort‐range,lastresortmunitionsthatareplacedinsilosandnotadaptabletochangingtargets.ThelackofmobilecapabilityintheABMservicemeansthatcertainareasofAkimonadareunderprotected.Thisissomethingthatmustberemediedwithallduespeed.

Name Number

in Service

Number in Reserve

Expected Decommissioning

Peacekeeper ICBM 1300 1400 2011

Odysseus ALICBM 250 300 2025

Eris BriPebs N/A (project cancelled)

2 prototypes completed N/A

Sprint Nova ABM 1000 150 2011

Nike-Zeus ABM 50 0 2009

Minuteman III 670 230 2017

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Review of Current Munitions and Technology

Currentdetectiontechnologyinuseis,atpresent,up‐to‐dateandmodern.ItissuggestedthatdeploymentofSea‐BasedX‐BandRadarsbeacceleratedtoprovidealargerradarcoveragearea.Furthermore,adaptingthenewLeistungiANRStoaland‐basedinstallationwouldprovideevenbetterdetectionintheareasofthehomelandandcolonies.Akimonad’soverallradardetectionscreenisinexcellentshape,andfaresverywellcomparedtothatofsomeregionalneighbors.

TheSkyTopsradarscurrentlyusedforballisticmissiledetectionshouldbereplacedwithamoreadvancedground‐basedradarthatprovidesgreaterprotection.Thecostofdevelopinganewphasedarrayradartoprovideover‐the‐horizonmissiledetectionwilllikelybelessthanthatoftheSkyTop,somoreradarsmaybedeployedontheground.

Itisalsorecommendedthatmoremobilephasedarraysetsareacquiredandthatmoreemphasisisputintotargetacquisition/tracking/guidancesystemdevelopmentanddispersal.Improvingthesesystemswillresultinaquickerresponsetoanuclearattack.

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Recommendations

TheDepartmentofResearchandAdvancedProjectsherebyconcludesthatseveraldrasticchangesareneededtomodernizethestateofAkimonad’sstrategicarmsanddefence.

Thefirstchangerequiredistheprocurementofnew,modernICBMsandtheconstructionofnew,moreheavilyreinforcedsilostoprotectthemintheeventofanuclearstrike.TheDepartmentalsorecommendstheprocurementofsmallICBMsonhighlymobiletransporter‐erecter‐launcherssuchastheAequatianMaus.ThiswillprovideAkimonadwithaverymobile,hard‐to‐destroystrategicdeterrent.Adraftrequestforproposalsofsuchsystemshasbeenincludedwiththiswhitepaper.Itissuggestedthatthisrequestissenttoasmanyforeignanddomesticproducersascanbefound.

Itisalsoadvisedthatworkbeginonanewanti‐ballisticmissilesystem.Thisshouldbeprimarilylandandair‐based.ItshouldbenotedthatsuchasystemwasunderdevelopmentundertheguiseoftheErissatelliteconstellation,butitwasdeniedfundingforthecurrentfiscalyearandabandoned.TheDepartmentstronglyrecommendstheallocationofnewfundsforthereactivationoftheErisproject,withthegoalofitseventualcompletionanddeploymentinapproximatelyfourtofiveyears.