NewSpace Presentation to ESOC Slide 1Darmstadt, Germany – 9th March, 2011
NewSpace – Delivering on the Dream
David J. Salt9th March, 2011
(by changing the paradigm)
A Finmeccanica CompanyNewSpace Presentation to ESOC Slide 2Darmstadt, Germany – 9th March, 2011
… a sustainable and evolving human presence in space!
What was “The Dream”?
“The Dream” as foreseen in 1968…
A Finmeccanica CompanyNewSpace Presentation to ESOC Slide 3Darmstadt, Germany – 9th March, 2011
• It’s not the Rocket Science … we have the technology– all key technologies required to travel to/from space and
work there were demonstrated by the Apollo lunar program
• We have much better supporting technologies than we had 50 years ago, when Apollo began
– manufacturing processes and computer hardware/software have made huge advances and become cheaper!
• Nevertheless, commercial space activities are limited to working with ‘photons’ rather than ‘atoms’ because of the space launch dilemma
– current launch costs are ~$10000/kg to LEO– new venture need < $1000/kg to LEO to close the business
case, so require fully Reusable Launch Vehicles (RLVs)– BUT current markets are insufficient to justify RLV funding!
What’s the Problem?
A Finmeccanica CompanyNewSpace Presentation to ESOC Slide 4Darmstadt, Germany – 9th March, 2011
• The current ‘space paradigm’ is stagnating!– space activities are still dominated by government
programmes supported by ‘commercial’ contractors– all programmes take longer and cost more than planned– future programmes face cut-backs and/or cancellation due
to major constraints on government discretionary spending
The bad news… and the good news
• Evidence suggests we are witnessing the beginning of a major shift towards a new ‘space paradigm’
– new entrepreneurial ventures are developing commercial systems to serve existing and new markets in novel ways
– all of these new ventures are founded by individuals from outside the established space industry
– their ultimate aim is to establish a sustainable and evolving human presence in space!
A Finmeccanica CompanyNewSpace Presentation to ESOC Slide 5Darmstadt, Germany – 9th March, 2011
• Many current NewSpace ventures are focusing their initial efforts on sub-orbital reusable launch vehicles (RLVs) instead of orbital RLVs because they…
– are less technically challenging– require significantly less funding– can be developed and tested quicker– offer many potential evolutionary paths to orbit
• NewSpace ventures adopt a ‘Skunk Works’ approach to development to meet rapidly evolving markets
– investment range is limited to between $10m to $200m– they employ existing systems and technologies, whenever
possible, in order to reduce development risk– use small teams evolving designs in small but rapid steps
(build, test, correct …)
NewSpace rationale and approach
A Finmeccanica CompanyNewSpace Presentation to ESOC Slide 6Darmstadt, Germany – 9th March, 2011
Armadillo - Mod
Virgin Galactic - SpaceShipTwo
Blue Origin – New Shepard
XCOR - Lynx
Masten - Xoie
Who is trying to change the paradigm?
A Finmeccanica CompanyNewSpace Presentation to ESOC Slide 7Darmstadt, Germany – 9th March, 2011
Computer networks (Cisco)Dave MastenMasten Space
Media and commercial servicesSir Richard BransonVirgin Galactic
Hotels (Budget Suites)Robert BigelowBigelow Aerospace
Internet services (PayPal)Elon MuskSpaceX
Intel chip developer (Pentium)Jeff GreasonXCOR
Games developer (Doom/Quake)John CarmackArmadillo Aerospace
Internet services (Amazon)Jeff BezosBlue Origin
Prior Businesses DomainFounderCompany
Leading NewSpace Venture Founders
Where did they get their money?
Dave Masten
Sir Richard Branson
Robert Bigelow
Elon Musk
Jeff Greason
John Carmack
Jeff Bezos
Founder
Computer networks (Cisco)
Media and commercial services
Hotels (Budget Suites)
Internet services (PayPal)
Intel chip developer (Pentium)
Games developer (Doom/Quake)
Internet services (Amazon)
Prior Businesses Domain
A Finmeccanica CompanyNewSpace Presentation to ESOC Slide 8Darmstadt, Germany – 9th March, 2011
• Several entrepreneurial ventures are very likely to be flying vehicles capable of carrying “space tourist” passengers on sub-orbital flights into space within the next 2 years
BUT revenue earning passenger flights will not begin until thenecessary levels of safety and reliability are demonstrated
• The first revenue earning flights will therefore carry science and engineering payloads instead of “space tourist” passengers
these flights will also demonstrate frequent (i.e. 4 flights per day) and low ‘cost’ (i.e. <$10k/flight) operations capability
• Preliminary indications suggest these new markets could be as significant as space tourism and may be sufficient to justify the business case alone!
Will they be safe, frequent & low cost?
A Finmeccanica CompanyNewSpace Presentation to ESOC Slide 9Darmstadt, Germany – 9th March, 2011
• Routine daily flights above 100km into the near-space environment, with accompanying short periods of weightlessness, will likely stimulate new markets
Stimulating the new markets
• NASA initiative to stimulate the interest of researchers and other groups to exploit such nascent services is being led by NASA Ames called the Commercial Reusable Suborbital Research(CRuSR) Program Established in 2009 by the
Obama administration Congress recently authorised
$15m/year from 2011-2016 to buy initial demonstrator flights
A Finmeccanica CompanyNewSpace Presentation to ESOC Slide 10Darmstadt, Germany – 9th March, 2011
– Sensing– Climaterics–– Vertical Atmospheric Vertical Atmospheric
SamplingSampling– Gene Expression – Fluids– Physiology– Emergency
Procedures– Countermeasures – Inner Ear Neural
Signal – Dust Particle
Agglomeration – Metal Alloy Phase
Separation– Glovebox
Investigations– Combustion– IR and NIR Optics
• New sub-orbital markets for science and engineering R&D…
It’s not just “Space Tourism”!
…and even “extreme sports” …
A Finmeccanica CompanyNewSpace Presentation to ESOC Slide 11Darmstadt, Germany – 9th March, 2011
• Unfortunately, the limited performance of sub-orbitalvehicles prevents them from serving orbital markets!
• So, how can sub-orbital vehicles evolve into orbital vehicles?
– Energetic difference between sub-orbital (~4Mn) and orbital (~25Mn) missions is a factor of ~40, but for a rocket this just means using more propellant…
– Unfortunately, orbital vehicles also require better/lighterengines (T/W), structures, thermal protection, power and control systems, life support…
– BUT such capabilities can be added incrementally as vehicle design evolves and its flight envelope expands
From sub-orbital to orbital
A Finmeccanica CompanyNewSpace Presentation to ESOC Slide 12Darmstadt, Germany – 9th March, 2011
Modified version of Lynx suborbital vehiclewith an expendable upper stage
Clusters of Mod suborbital vehicleare used to form a reusable booster and expendable upper stage
Armadillo’s orbital launch concept
XCOR’s orbital launch concept
First steps into orbit
A Finmeccanica CompanyNewSpace Presentation to ESOC Slide 13Darmstadt, Germany – 9th March, 2011
• An example of how a suborbitalvehicle design can “evolve” into a fully reusable orbital system
Evolving towards full reusability
A Finmeccanica CompanyNewSpace Presentation to ESOC Slide 14Darmstadt, Germany – 9th March, 2011
• Nevertheless, COTS will also boost the business case for commercial space stations in Earth orbit
– operating initially as space business parksfor both government and industry research
– then later as hotels for space tourists• Moreover, if COTS can demonstrate a significant
demand for these new markets it will serve to boost the business case for commercial RLVs
• In parallel with sub-orbital developments, NASA is promoting Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) for International Space Station for both logistics re-supply and crew transportation after Shuttle retirement
• However, the cost of space access will still be high due to their reliance on ELVs
Bigelow Commercial Station
SpaceX Dragon Capsule
NASA orbital initiatives also help
A Finmeccanica CompanyNewSpace Presentation to ESOC Slide 15Darmstadt, Germany – 9th March, 2011
Reusable suborbital services for passenger~2014
Commercial space station & ELV support
+ COTS crew rotation to ISS
~2015
2nd generation RLVs for ISS cargo and GEO satellite launch
~2018
~2020
~2013
2011Year
2nd generation RLVs for passenger services to ISS and commercial stations
Small satellite launch services into low Earth orbitvia suborbital RLV boosters
Reusable suborbital services for payloads
+ COTS payload services to ISS
Milestones
Steps towards a NewSpace paradigm
2011 Reusable suborbital services for payloads
+ COTS payload services to ISS~2013 Small satellite launch services into low Earth orbit
via suborbital RLV boostersReusable suborbital services for passenger~2014
2nd generation RLVs for ISS cargo and GEO satellite launch
~2018
Commercial space station & ELV support
+ COTS crew rotation to ISS
~2015
~2020 2nd generation RLVs for passenger services to ISS and commercial stations
A Finmeccanica CompanyNewSpace Presentation to ESOC Slide 16Darmstadt, Germany – 9th March, 2011
• Small entrepreneurial ventures are attempting to change the current space access paradigm by building sub-orbital vehicles to service new markets and, in particular, to enable large numbers of people to become involved in space related activities & commerce
• Although there is good reason for cautious optimism, it would bebetter to regard these ventures as experiments within a process of Darwinian evolution rather than milestones of an overarching space programme because many are likely to fail due to the enormity of the business and technology challenges they face!
• Nevertheless, given the current number of NewSpace ventures and their success to date, it seems reasonable to believe that some will “boot-strap” themselves to orbit in the next decade and so begin to deliver on the dream of opening the space frontier
Concluding remarks
A Finmeccanica CompanyNewSpace Presentation to ESOC Slide 17Darmstadt, Germany – 9th March, 2011
Supplementary/back-up slides
A Finmeccanica CompanyNewSpace Presentation to ESOC Slide 18Darmstadt, Germany – 9th March, 2011
Half a Century of Spaceflight
• 1950’s/60’s: Defence/National Security issues ensure BIG budgets– Apollo was a National Security Programme!
• 1970’s: Economic constraints force slow-down of pace– Shuttle helped conserve industrial base– Commercial potentials of space emerge
• 1980’s: Military, political and commercial programmes grow– SDIO, GPS, SSF, Commercial Space Launch Act, PanAmSat, etc.
• 1990’s: Military/government “rationalisation” but commercial growth– EELV, ISS, VSATs, SkyTV , Iridium, Teledesic, etc.– NewSpace [1st wave – Kistler, Kelly Space, Rotary Rocket, etc]
• 2000’s: Commercial “rationalisation” and government re-invention– Iridium, Galileo, VSE/Constellation, ORS, COTS, CRuSR, etc.– NewSpace [2nd wave – Armadillo, Masten, SpaceX, XCOR, etc.]
How did we get here?
A Finmeccanica CompanyNewSpace Presentation to ESOC Slide 19Darmstadt, Germany – 9th March, 2011
• Space access is expensive… the price to get into low Earth orbit is on the order of $10000/kg because current launcher vehicles are extremely expensive to operate
– expendables (e.g. Ariane 5) throw away expensive hardware
– reusables (i.e. Shuttle) take too much time/effort to turn-around
• Fully reusable launchers with airline-like operationscould lower the cost of space access by at least an order of magnitude (less than $1000/kg) but…
– the estimated cost to develop such vehicles is $10-20 billion
– current markets are insufficient to reach flight rates that would justify such a cost because… space access is expensive!
The Space Access Dilemma
A Finmeccanica CompanyNewSpace Presentation to ESOC Slide 20Darmstadt, Germany – 9th March, 2011
Perspective:The Global space revenue was $251 billion in 2007, which is a little less than the annual revenue of a single large commercial company (e.g. Wal-Mart)
=> World airline revenues in2007 were $470 billion
=> Lufthansa’s revenue in2007 was $37.0 billion
Space Foundation publication “The Space Report 2008”
Question:Without a major government initiative like Apollo, how can we create/encourage the necessary space markets ?
How much do we spend?
A Finmeccanica CompanyNewSpace Presentation to ESOC Slide 21Darmstadt, Germany – 9th March, 2011
• A recent paper** predicts that soot from commercial sub-orbital flights will change global temperatures, with severe climatic impacts
– Assumes 10 tonne propellant/launch and 1,000 launches/year using 'hybrid' engine burning synthetic hydrocarbon with nitrous oxide
– Models show black carbon ‘soot’ emissions would persist high in stratosphere, potentially altering global atmospheric circulation and distributions of ozone
– Simulations show changes to Earth's climate could increase polar surface temperatures by 1 °C, and reduce polar sea ice by 5–15%
** Ross, M., M. Mills, and D. Toohey (2010), Potential climate impact of black carbon emitted by rockets, Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1029/2010GL044548
• Authors acknowledge that many uncertainties exist and that theirresults are very sensitive to assumptionsresults are very sensitive to assumptions
– Assumes propellant loads well in excesswell in excess of most suborbital vehicles– Use of liquid hydrocarbon/oxygen hydrocarbon/oxygen burning engines reducesreduces assumed black
carbon emissionsemissions by several orders of magnitudeseveral orders of magnitude– Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates the quantity of soot (IPCC) estimates the quantity of soot
already in stratosphere is many times greater than the hypothesialready in stratosphere is many times greater than the hypothesized emissionszed emissions– Seems not to have included carbon particles put into the stratosphere by other
sources (e.g. natural processes such as meteorite dust)
• Although such concerns should not be ignoredshould not be ignored, there seems to be no justifiable reason to base any future policy upon this assessment
Impact on environment & climate