19th Jawaharlal Nehru Memorial IFFCO 19th Jawaharlal Nehru Memorial IFFCO LectureLecture
India going it aloneIndia going it alone
by Haldor F.A. Topsøe
Presented by Flemming TopsøeUniversity of Copenhagen
Importance of western contributionsImportance of western contributions
• industrialized worlds contributions
to India?• some said: perhaps not so large …• perhaps played only a small role …• so what really is the picture?• let us have a look:
Yearly transfers to IndiaYearly transfers to India(billion USD, current prices)(billion USD, current prices)
1975-1979 1980-1989 1990-1999 2000-2003
Current net transfers from abroad
- of which transfers from IBRD/IDA/IMF and others
- of which transfers from foreign direct investments
1,5
0.5
0.04
2,4
1,3
0,1
8,3
0,7
1,7
16,9
(0,3)
4,9
Other balance of payment transfers net 1,1 (2,2) (9,0) (8,9)
Net transfers from trade in goods and services (2,1) (4,4) (3,8) (5,3)
Current account 0,4 (4,2) (4,4) 2,7
Yearly gross domestic product Yearly gross domestic product and savings and savings
(billion USD, current prices) (billion USD, current prices)
From 1970-1979 1980-1989 1990-1999 2000-2005
Agriculture 39,5 72,8 91,4 111,9
Industry 22,1 56,8 86,4 143,9
Service sectors 34,3 85,3 144,7 281,9
Miscellaneous sectors 9,3 24,0 32,2 50,1
Total GDP 105,2 238,9 354,7 587,8
Gross domestic savings 18,3 49,2 79,4 137,4 2)
Population (mill.) 615 767 932 1,040
GDP per capita (USD) 214 1) 265 376 508
1) 1975-80, 2) 2000-2003
Indian efforts, foreign transfersIndian efforts, foreign transfers
India supplied by far most , for a long time, India has been ”going it alone”
an example (smallish): Danish IFU more significant: private sector abroad pre-1947: British enterprises post-1947: Great expectations, little
happened
Factors related to post-47 Factors related to post-47 developmentdevelopment
+ basis created by the Tatas and Birlas, the Maharajas, the Indian Civil Service + basis in the sciences, e.g. mathematics
and statistics (Mahalanobis), physics and chemistry (Raman, Bhabha),…
- competences to go ”from science to dollars” lacking:
- federal and state economic planning - marketing and trade - special technologies
Creation of lacking competenciesCreation of lacking competencies
took until 1960-70es capabilities to build very large plants emphazise fertilizer manufacturing some problems re financing were
overcome by the cooperative movement outstanding example of IFFCO
Present situationPresent situation
in science, R&D, engineering, financing and trade, India can go it alone – and,
when you can, you do not need to … West amazingly slow in realizing the role
of India in the globalisation process
Green revolutionGreen revolution
very much an Indian project, started important international developments
the ”old attitude” in the West: India should import, and the West manufacture and manage
again emphasize that largely India can go it alone – but still:
Difficult problems aheadDifficult problems ahead
distribute profit so that also the very poor perceives progress
- a political economic problem many theories - but you must attack the
inherent technical problems re job-creation: huge sums involved let us turn to more immediate and
concrete problems: water and energy first can be solved when second one is …
Total global supply of energy 2005 Total global supply of energy 2005 (tonnes oil equivalent)(tonnes oil equivalent)
Oil 3,9 x 109
Gas 2,5 x 109
Coal 2,9 x 109
Total fossil 9,3 x 109
Hydro power 6,7 x 108
Nuclear power 6,3 x 108
Wind power 1,0 x 107
Bio energy ~1,1 x 109
Total other 2,4 x 109
Total 11,7 x 109
Global proven and recoverable resourcesGlobal proven and recoverable resources(tonnes oil equivalent)(tonnes oil equivalent)
Oil 1,64 x 1011
Gas 1,63 x 1011
Coal 4,5 x 1011
Uranium etc. 1) Not relevant
1) resources sufficient for hundreds of years with present technology, with breeder technology even an increase by a factor of some 70.
Time horizon (in years) at present Time horizon (in years) at present use, respectively at 2% yearly use, respectively at 2% yearly
increase in demandincrease in demand
Oil 40 30
Gas 68 42
Coal 155 71
Nuclear 2) Not relevant
2) Uranium resources has a time horizon of several thousand years.
The Indian energy situation 2005 The Indian energy situation 2005 (use in tonnes of oil equivalent)(use in tonnes of oil equivalent)
Oil 1,16 x 108
Gas 0,33 x 108
Coal 2,12 x 108
Nuclear 0,04 x 108
Hydropower 0,22 x 108
Total 3,9 x 108
Can we believe in figures ?Can we believe in figures ?
I doubt it! Figures are based on old American standards…influenced by politics, price, available technology …
pre-war figures alarming – but no action! Then overstating the problem (Club of Rome) and
again: no action! only in last decades taken serious and in the US, projects to rectify situation
established (coal to hydrocarbons) but then: Reagan elected and programmes were stopped!
So what can we do globally? So what can we do globally?
switch to hydropower (double production?)
go for wind power (cover 10% in 2050?) go nuclear (cover 20% in 2050? …but…) switch to coal, incl. lignite, tar sand, very
heavy crudes etc. (technologically and economically feasible … but CO2 …)
switch to bio-fuels (pros and cons…)
What shall we do during the 21st What shall we do during the 21st century?century?