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Daily Technical Trader – Qatar

Monday, 15 December 2014

Stocks Covered Today

Ticker Price Target

CBQK 65.40 66.20

QNCD 120.00 123.70

QSE Index

Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)

Last 11,114.43 -5.9 10.5

Resistance/Support

Levels 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 11,230 11,430 11,640

Support 10,900 10,600 10,300

QSE Index Commentary

Overview: Although the Index had a sharp drop last session and could exhibit further weakness, signs of a possible bounce are coming together. On the daily chart, it is visible that the MACD is at an extreme level. This is not bullish but it does indicate possible extreme overselling pressure. The RSI is also at an extreme oversold level. The intraday show more promising signs as the Histogram MACD showed loss of selling pressure at the end of last session. This potential recovery is expected to be short lived but traders can use it their advantage. Expected Target Level: 11,600 It is essential to mention that this possible bounce should be used carefully and no sign of change in trend is visible yet. Suggested Stop-Loss Level: 10,900

QSE Index (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

QE Summary

Market Indicators 15 Dec 14 14 Dec 14 %Ch.

Value Traded (QR mn) 957.1 720.8 32.8

Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 614.8 652.3 -5.7

Volume (mn) 22.5 13.1 71.8

Number of Trans. 9,804 7,964 23.1

Companies Traded 43 42 2.4

Market Breadth 0:43 2:39 –

QE Indices

Market Indices Close 1D% RSI

Total Return 16,577.07 -5.9 14.6

All Share Index 2,835.29 -6.3 14.2

Banks 2,896.68 -5.7 17.6

Industrials 3,673.42 -5.6 15.2

Transportation 2,073.84 -4.9 17.8

Real Estate 2,038.56 -9.9 13.0

Insurance 3,258.85 -6.3 12.4

Telecoms 1,333.74 -2.8 29.2

Consumer 6,060.77 -8.9 15.0

Al Rayan Islamic 3,661.79 -7.9 15.1

RSI 14 (Over Bought)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

RSI 14 (Over Sold)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

AHCS 11.52 -9.9 8.3

MPHC 27.10 -9.7 9.8

NLCS 18.00 -10.0 10.7

QIGD 34.20 -10.0 11.1

ERES 13.77 -10.0 11.3

QSE Index (30Min)



CBQK

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 65.40 -1.21 371,092

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 66.20 67.20 68.30

Support 64.00 63.00 62.00

Commentary

Overview: The Commercial Bank followed suit with the general market. It lost almost 5% from Thursday’s closing before recovering and closing almost at the session high of QR65.40. This closing created a bullish Hammer candlestick. It is a reversal pattern from the previous bearish move. The shadow’s size of that hammer candlestick is several times the size of the body. This signifies bullish momentum built into the previous session, which may continue. Expected Target Price: QR66.20 – QR67.20 This should be treated as a careful, hit and run trade. The overall trend is still down. Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR63.00 Trading below the above level may dip the price to QR62.00

(Daily)


(Hourly)



QNCD

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 119.00 -2.46 49,187

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 120.00 123.70 127.00

Support 113.00 106.00 100.00

Commentary

Overview: The cement manufacturing leader bounced off after a sharp drop from the QR113.00 price. This bounce has created a reversal hammer. The bounce may have started a new price range between QR113.00 and QR147.00. Coupled with intraday reversing signatures given by the MACD and the RSI indicators, the bounce in the coming session is possible. This trade should be treated with caution as the spread can be an issue with the name. It is important to note that on the intraday chart, we see that the MACD is at an extreme level below the zero line and the RSI is at the oversold area trying to push above it. Expected Retreat Price: QR123.70 – QR127.00 The confirmation that is needed to start a buy position is a break above the QR120.00 for at least half an hour to an hour. Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR113.00 A break below the price should drag the price to the lower support level of QR106.00.

(Daily)


(Hourly)



Intra-day Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages* Support Levels Resistance Levels

Ticker Close 3rd

2nd

1st

Pivot 1st

2nd

3rd

50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA

QSE Index 11,114.43 10,710.99 10,863.78 10,958.18 11,110.97 11,263.76 11,358.16 11,510.95 13,323.96 13,467.32 12,938.49

Total Return 16,577.07 15,975.34 16,203.23 16,344.02 16,571.90 16,799.79 16,940.58 17,168.46 19,872.57 20,086.38 19,259.21

All Share 2,835.29 2,727.84 2,773.01 2,800.92 2,846.09 2,891.26 2,919.17 2,964.34 3,377.85 3,408.56 3,283.25

Al Rayan Islamic 3,661.79 3,473.78 3,565.33 3,621.89 3,713.45 3,805.00 3,861.56 3,953.12 4,488.75 4,561.53 4,283.76

Banks & Financials Services

MARK 40.00 37.47 38.57 39.26 40.37 41.47 42.16 43.27 50.16 52.87 50.22

CBQK 65.40 62.13 63.09 63.68 64.63 65.59 66.18 67.13 72.07 71.10 68.60

DHBK 50.30 46.83 48.34 49.27 50.78 52.29 53.22 54.73 58.21 59.16 60.27

QIBK 87.90 83.10 84.93 86.07 87.90 89.73 90.87 92.70 108.47 111.21 98.87

QIIK 71.10 67.23 69.45 70.82 73.03 75.25 76.62 78.83 85.08 86.53 83.64

Insurance

QATI 76.10 69.37 72.04 73.69 76.37 79.04 80.69 83.37 94.61 95.15 84.57

Consumer Goods & Services

MCGS 97.50 95.83 96.79 97.38 98.33 99.29 99.88 100.83 126.04 124.82 102.04

Industrials

IQCD 168.00 158.00 160.87 162.64 165.50 168.37 170.14 173.00 188.73 186.97 184.94

QEWS 171.00 163.00 165.71 167.39 170.10 172.81 174.49 177.20 187.78 187.46 184.50

GISS 72.70 71.10 72.02 72.58 73.50 74.42 74.98 75.90 114.34 117.14 102.94

QIGD 34.20 32.10 33.30 34.05 35.25 36.45 37.20 38.40 48.30 53.03 55.93

Real Estate

BRES 37.00 35.47 36.31 36.83 37.67 38.51 39.03 39.87 44.83 43.11 40.47

UDCD 21.29 20.14 20.80 21.21 21.86 22.52 22.93 23.58 26.65 27.90 25.78

ERES 13.77 13.15 13.51 13.72 14.08 14.44 14.65 15.01 18.65 19.39 21.47

MRDS 16.75 16.06 16.45 16.70 17.10 17.49 17.74 18.14 22.68 22.77 20.11

Telecommunication

ORDS 111.60 101.73 104.60 106.37 109.23 112.10 113.87 116.73 122.15 126.14 134.46

VFQS 14.60 13.99 14.34 14.56 14.90 15.25 15.47 15.81 19.16 20.01 18.23

Transportation

QGTS 20.80 18.93 19.51 19.86 20.43 21.01 21.36 21.93 23.79 24.12 23.31

QNNS 87.80 78.40 81.88 84.02 87.50 90.98 93.12 96.60 98.17 96.63 95.45 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price


Definitions:

Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening

and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is

lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they

compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.

Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.

Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the

security price to head lower.

SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus

considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative

price direction and potential support/resistance levels.

Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in

a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally

use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be

considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.

Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &

shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.

Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These

levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.

Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot

Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.


Contacts

Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian

Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst

Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC

Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666

Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 [email protected] [email protected] Doha, Qatar

Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS.

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