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Vulnerability and Adaptation AssessmentHands-on Training Workshop
for the Africa Region
- Integration and Communication of V&A Analysis -
Maputo, Mozambique18-22 April 2005
Kristie L. Ebi, Exponent Health Group
Joel Smith, Stratus Consulting Inc.
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Outline Integration of Results
General Points Cross sector and multi-sector integration Setting priorities
Vulnerability Adaptation
Communications Conclusions
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Why is Integration Important?
Necessary for ranking vulnerabilities and adaptations
Impacts do not happen in isolation Impacts in one sector can affect another Some sectors are affected directly and
indirectly Others just indirectly Sometimes a change in one sector can offset
the affect of climate change in another sector
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Integration of Impacts Two Main Types
Cross-Sector Integration Link related Sectors
Multi-Sector Economy or System wide
Integrated Assessment Models Economic Models
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Impacts in One Sector Can Overwhelm Direct Climate Effect
In a recent study, crop yields in California were generally estimated to increase with climate change
In one scenario, a 25% reduction in water supply results in a net loss of $1 billion/year to California agriculture
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Integrating WEAP and CROPWAT
CLIMATEPrecip.,Temp.,
Solar Rad.
WEAPEvaluationPlanning
CROPWATRegionalirrigation
CERESCrop water
demand
WATBALStreamflow
PET
SCENARIOSGCM
SCENARIOSPopulation, Development,
Technology
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Key Indicators for Egyptian Baseline
Indicator 1990 2060-Opt 2060-PesPopulation 54156 122% 122%GDP Ag 1143 96% 135%GDP non-Ag 4878 617% 224%Food price index 1.16 6.90% -3.40%
(1990 absolute; 2060-optimistic/pessimistic percentage change from 1990)
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Multi-Sector Integration
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IMAGE Model
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Regional/National Economic Models
Quantitative way to examine climate change market impacts throughout an economy Problem with non-market impacts
Often macroeconomic models or general equilibrium models
Require a lot of data Can be expensive Can be complex Communication of assumptions can be a
challenge
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An Example of a Regional Model
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A More “Simple” Approach
Add up results sector by sector Limited by what is known within sectors Problem of how to integrate across multiple
end points
Need to account for a lot of sectors
Does not capture sectoral interactions
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Estimates of Damages for India by Mendelsohn
Sector Damages ($ billions)
Agriculture -53.2
Forestry +0.1
Energy -21.9
Water -$1.2
Coastal Resources -0.1
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Can Also Measure # of People Affected
Millions at Risk study did this
Global burden of disease
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At a Minimum Should at least qualitatively identify linkages
and possible direction of impacts
If only can examine crops, not water supply, then identify how change in water supply could affect agricultural production
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Setting Priorities Vulnerability
Adaptation
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Prioritization of Vulnerabilities
It can be quite useful for
Focusing adaptation measures
Monitoring
Adaptation
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Process is as Important as Outcome
This is an expression of values, not a purely analytic exercise
Need to include stakeholders and policy makers
The following are tools that can be useful in setting priorities
Whether you use qualitative or quantitative approach, the most important thing is JUST DO IT
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NAPA Process
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Adaptation Policy FrameworkTable 4: Ranking of priority systems/regions/climate hazards
C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6
System/Region/Hazard
Social impacts
Economic impacts
Environmental impacts
Political impacts
Ranking
A
B
C
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OECD Method
Table 5.5. Nepal ranking
Resource/ranking Certainty of
impact Timing of
impact Severity of
impact Importance of
resource
Water resources (flooding) High High High High Agriculture Medium-low Medium-low Medium High Human health Low Medium ? High Biodiversity Low ? ? Medium-high
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Ranking Adaptations Screening
Multi-criteria assessment
Benefit-cost analysis
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Screening Matrix for Human Settlement and Tourism Adaptation Measure in Antigua
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Multi-Criteria Assessment
Options Effectiveness Feasibility Cost Score
A 3 2 2 7
B 2 4 4 10
C 5 1 3 9
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Adaptation Decision Matrix for Agriculture in Kazakhstan
Objective #1:
Food Security
Objective #2:
Exports
Objective #3:
Maximize Production
Objective #4: Sustainable
Agricult.
Objective #5:
Protect Env.
Objective #6:
Prevent Desertifi-
cation
Objective #7: Genetic
Diversity
Objective #8:
Employment
Measures Scenario: 5 2 3 5 2 3 1 4 Score
Current Current 4.00 0.70 1.00 2.00 4.00 4.00 4.50 4 74.9
Policy GFDL 1.00 0.50 0.50 1.00 2.00 3.00 3.00 1 32.5
+3; 0% 1.5 0.7 0.5 1.5 3 3 3 2 43.9
+2; +20% 3.5 1 1 2.5 4 4 4 3.5 73
Pest Current 5 2 3 3 4.5 4.5 4.5 4 96
Forecast GFDL 2 1.5 0.7 1.5 2 3.3 3 1.1 43.9
+3; 0% 2.5 1.5 0.7 2 3 3.3 3 2.1 54.9
+2; +20% 4.5 2 1.5 3.5 4 4.3 4 3.6 87.8
Regional Current 5 1.5 2 2.5 4 4 5 4 87.5
Centers GFDL 1.00 1.00 0.50 1.00 2.00 3.00 5 1 35.5
+3; 0% 1.5 1 0.5 1.5 3 3 5 2 46.5
+2; +20% 3.5 1.5 1 2.5 4 4 5 3.5 75
Rules for Current 5 3 3.5 3 4 4 4.5 4 97
Free GFDL 1.3 1.1 0.8 2.5 2.5 3.5 3 1.3 47.3
Market +3; 0% 2 1.1 1 3 3.5 3.5 3 2.3 59.9
+2; +20% 4.5 1.7 2 4.5 4.5 4.5 4 3.9 96.5
Reduce Current 5 3 5 5 5 5 4.5 4 116.5
Soil GFDL 2.5 1.5 1.5 3 4 3.5 3 1.2 61.3
Erosion +3; 0% 3.2 1.5 1.5 3.5 4.5 3.7 3 2.2 72.9
+2; +20% 4.3 2 2.2 4.5 5 5 4 3.8 98.8
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Ranking Based on Scenario
Culture of Water Capture Runoff Use Different Building MaterialsCurrent Climate 1 2 3
Hotter and Drier 2 3 1
Hotter and Wetter 1 2 3
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Benefit-Cost Analysis Estimate all benefits and costs in a common
metric to determine whether benefits > costs
Monetary values often used
Difficulty: what to do about non-market benefits or uncertainties
Difficulty: requires a lot of data and analysis
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BCA Example: Sea Walls in Kiribati
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What to Use
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Presenting Resultsin Your National Communication
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UNFCCC Decision 17/CP.8
“. . . non-Annex I Parties should provide information on their vulnerability to the adverse effects of climate change, and on adaptation measures being taken to meet their specific needs and concerns arising from these adverse effects.”
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Communication The National Communication (NC) needs to
clearly communicate vulnerability and adaptation findings
Fine to describe methods and results of analyses But, needs to synthesize and integrate results
The NC needs to clearly communicate Who and what is vulnerable
How that may vary across time and geographic region
What is needed to be done to adapt Where and when
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First Thing: Remember Purpose Who is the audience for the NC?
What kind of information do they need?
How can it most effectively be presented to them?
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Presenting Vulnerabilities
We’ll cover two things
Clearly presenting results
Presenting who and what is most vulnerable
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Clearly Presenting Vulnerability Findings
The key is
Organization
Clarity
Simplicity
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Seychelles First NC
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Tanzania’s First NC
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From Users Manual
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Relative Direction, Magnitude, and Certainty of Impacts
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Presenting Adaptation Results
Present identified adaptations in a clear manner
Evaluate or rank adaptations Consider possible effectiveness within your
country
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Seychelles: Adaptations
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South Africa: Evaluation
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Conclusions Integration is important to at least identify
related impacts Analysis is desirable because there can be
surprises Integration can also be useful for examining
total vulnerability and ranking vulnerabilities Clear synthesis and reporting of results is
important Analytic methods exist for analyzing and
ranking adaptations
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Some Final Thoughts
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“To a Hammer, Everything Looks Like a Nail”
Methods or models are a means to get an answer
Before addressing the answer, we must consider the question(s) being asked
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These Questions are Key Factors in Determining How to Conduct Your Study
You should not begin with the methods or models you have in hand, but with these questions
Select methods and models that best help you answer the questions