Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series
Information Changes the World #4
Why Information Technology Now ?the 3rd day
Hiroshi Harashima
Information Foundation
Information Society Information Machinery
Word
ComputerPrinting
Network
Multimedia
Personal Computer
Communication
Internet
DatabaseSimulation
Virtual RealitySearch Engine Mobile
Ubiquitous
Artificial Inteligence
Life
BrainCyborg
Community
Medical System
Net Society
Information Explosione-administration
Electric Money
Information Economics
Globalization
Environment
Industry
Robot
Body Expression
Physicality
Contents
Media Art Entertainment
Movie MusicNew Art
“Otaku” Culture
Museum
Intellectual Property
Journalism
Picture
Cognition
Information Changes the World - the Global View -
Ikuo Takeuchi“Interface of Information and Art”Information
Culture
Osamu Sudo“Information Explosion and Creation of New Network Society”
Tomomasa Sato“Robot, Information and Life”
Knowledge of Information
Hiroshi Harashima“Why Information Technology Now?”
Hiroshi Komiyama“The University and Information” - Information Changes Learning -
PaperTelecommunication
Information Gap
Security
Public Media
Information Distribution
Science Calculation
Anime Game
Drama
Public Art
Education
Manga
Film
WEB2.0
Intelligent Robot
Android
Digital Human
Mass Media
Environmental Robot
Neural Network
Industrial production
Ultimate Frontier Robot
Life-supporting Robot
Cell Production-supporting Robot
Industrial Robot
Basic Theme
Now, information technology is in a drastic developmental progress.
Let us see this in terms of 10 years, 100 years
and 1000 years.
Why is this ?
How would a historian after 1000 years write about today’s development of information technology in his book?
Observing progress of IT in terms of 100 years …
Let’s review the last lecture.
Competition for Dominance of the World
・ Domination of the Land
Mongol (13-14c), Ottoman Turks(15-16c)
・ Domination of the Sea ( sailing )
Spain ・ Portugal (16c), Netherlands (17c) France ・ England (18c)
・ Domination of Network ( information technology )
- industrial revolution - ( railroad technology )・ Domination of the Sky ( aviation/ space
technology )
the World War England, France, USA vs Germany, Italy, Japan
the Cold War USA vs Soviet
In the past,England who won out in the age of seahad experienced industrial revolution.
21st century, the age of information, has started as the age of the USA.
Now, the USAwho won out in the age of skyexperienced informational revolution.
But would this age last long?
How would the 21st century be?
The 21st Century would be a troublesome age.
Club of Rome (1972)
resourcepopulation
production
pollution
ma
ny
few
hands → machinery
Progressed for improvement of production, and only toward quantitative enhancement of human’s abilities
The “Superman” Technology
Past Technologies
legs → transportation
eyes, ears → media
brain → computer
As a matter of course, Superman expends a huge amount of energy.
Tatsuo Motokawa “Time of Elephant, Time of Rat” Chuko Shinsho
Energy consumption at rest is proportional tothe power 3/4.
Fig.3-1 Relationship between metabolism and bodyweight (mammals).Unit of basic metabolism is watt. The watt is equal to one joule of energy per second.
Bodyweight (kg)
Basic M
etabolism
(watt)
rat
mouse
cat
monkey
doggoat
guinea pig
chimpanzee
sheep
human
elephant
horse
wild boar
sow
cow
ox
American diet 3 billion
In the late 21st century, population on the Earth will rise above 10 billion.
Population Expansivity of the Earth
Japanese diet 5 billion
developing countries’ diet 10 billion
The American model of mass consumption does not work in the 21st century.
Maybe, a book of history after 1000 years would write about the modern age as follows.
resourcepopulation
production
pollution
ma
ny
few
The 20th Century and the early 21st Century was the bubble age. The Industrial Revolution provided humans with technology to use up earth resources in industrial production. Humans prospered instantaneously in this period by chewing up the Earth.Humans had to deal with the aftermath of this in the late 21st Century.
Had such bubble and collapse ever happened in the past ?
It happened in the 14-15 th century!
Demographic Change in Europe
Demographic Change in Europe
European economy developed steadily in the 12, 13th Century, but the change came in the 14, 15th Century. Climate instability such as cold temperature and long rain, poor harvest, starvation, war, and epidemics devastated European societies. Population decreased and villages vanished one after another. The 14th and 15th Century was the worst age in the European history. During this collapse, social structure of Europe in manorialism underwent a great change.
Plague E
pidemic
Plague Patients’ Nurse
warmed patients’ bed with charcoal fire
The Crisis in the 14th and 15th Century Europe
Demographic Change in Europe
European economy developed steadily in the 12, 13th Century, but the change came in the 14, 15th Century. Climate instability such as cold temperature and long rain, poor harvest, starvation, war, and epidemics devastated European societies. Population decreased and villages vanished one after another. The 14th and 15th Century was the worst age in the European history. During this collapse, social structure of Europe in manorialism underwent a great change.
Plague E
pidemic
Plague Patients’ Nurse
warmed patients’ bed with charcoal fire
The Crisis in the 14th and 15th Century Europe
Medieval time
4-10th CenturyStarted from volkerwanderung Germanean Normanean
Modern times
15-17th CenturyStarted from geographical discovery
Spain, Portugal, Netherlands, France, England11-13th Century
Enhancement of VaticanismAgricultural technology revolution
Reclamation of the continent led by churches and monasteries
14-15th CenturyDestruction of ecosystemPlague epidemicFamine, Wars
18-20th CenturyProsperity of modern scienceIndustrial revolution Wide development of the Earth led by industries
21st Century
Destruction of ecosystem,environment, energy riskStarvation? War?
History repeats in the perspective of civilization.
Civilization has life-span.
Acquisition of technology ↓
Improvement in productivity, population increase ↓Wastage of natural resources, environment deterioration
↓Depression in productivity, population decrease
↓Starvation, epidemic, civil war ↓The end of civilization
Period of Woods and Prairie ( Prehistoric Times )
The birth of humans ( upright walking), food-gathering, hunting
Period of Cities ( Ancient Times )
agriculture, cattle breeding, formation of cities
Period of Continents ( Medieval Times ) volkerwanderung, reclamation of lands, plague epidemic
Period of the Earth ( Modern Times ) geographical discovery, global development, ecological destruction
Period Division
Now, the modern age ( the period of the Earth) is coming to an end.
What kind of age would come next?
All the civilization had its life-span since Tigris and Euphrates.
→ New civilization had been built on newly found continents.
In the modern times, we built civilization on whole earth.Now, there is no more continent on the Earth.
So, what should we do?
After “The Period of the Earth”Comes “The Period of Space”
Space boom (first landing on moon) in the late 20th century was maybe a preparation for this.
SF predicted the period ofspace.
Can technology catch up?Is there an utopia in the outer space?
If there is no new continent ( new planet ) in the space, we have to look for a new continent on the Earth.
The information boom from the late 20th century to the early 21st century was maybe a preparation for this.
One possibility is the construction of “a new information continent” that needs no resource or energy.
Anyway, what we need now is“ technology to sustain the Earth”.toward a perfect
recycling-based society
A perfect control toward energy and resources saving
→ Realize perfect recycling → Stop wasting energy
Information technology would be a key technology to sustain the Earth.
Networking all the contents on the Earth
↓Networking all the “materials” on the Earth
In the 20-21st century, development of information technology was thought to have nothing to do with energy and resources.
However, there was a close relationship between information technology and energy.
In the 21st century, humans challenged to sustain the Earth by information technology, and succeeded in constructing “the New Continent of Information” that does not consume any material nor energy.
The history book after 1000 years might say …
Would this be a real solution?
There might be some other thing which is more important.
Maybe, this is only a temporarylife extension.
However…
The important thing now is to change the quality of
civilization.
Let’s look back again on the history.
How is beginning of the modern agewritten in a history textbook?
The Modern SocietyFormation of modern civil society
Renaissance
Geographical discovery
Reformation
During transition from medieval times to modern times, there were great changes in conception of humans and values.
Renaissance, Religious Reformation
Thoughts and philosophy which become leading principles in the next period prosper in revolutionary times.
Period of Woods and Prairie ( Prehistoric Times )
The birth of humans ( upright walking), food-gathering, hunting
Period of Cities ( Ancient Times )
agriculture, cattle breeding, formation of cities
Period of Continents ( Medieval Times ) volkerwanderung, reclamation of lands, plague epidemic
Period of the Earth ( Modern Times ) geographical discovery, global development, ecological destruction
Period Division
Renaissance, religious reformation, modern rationalism
Hellenic culture, Roman culture, 3 major religions
Leonardo
Da Vinci
(1452-1519)
the man who had both total knowledge and sensitivity knowledge
Knowledge to judge right, good, and beauty
total knowledgeKnowledge to overview the whole
sensitivity knowledge
Now, a person who has both total knowledge and sensitivity knowledgeis needed.
Can anyone be a Da Vincinow?
A question.
Leonardo Da Vinci could have both total knowledge and sensitivityknowledge alone because it was 500 years ago.
This is far impossible now!
Da Vinci Today
A single person cannot be a Da Vinci.
But if experts from various fields collaborate, they can be a Da Vinci as a group.
It is the age for Da Vinci as a group.
University is a group of knowledge.
If there is a system for all campus to collaborate with each other, an university can be a Da Vinci.
The new academic institution where
humanities and sciences cross each borders
The University of Tokyo
Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies
(Founded in 2000)
Kang Sang-jung
social thought
Osamu Sakura
evolutionary biology
Yoichiro KawaguchiCG artist
Katsushi Ikeuchicomputer vision
Shunya Yoshimicultural studies
Shin Mizukoshimedia studies
TRON , ubiquitous computing
Ken Sakamura
And more …Junichi Hamada / Tohru Nishigaki / Hidetaka Ishida / Akira Baba /Yuhei Yamauchi / Masato Ishizaki…
People in iii
humanitiessciencesfine artsnon-classified…
Osamu Sudoh
electric society
“Scuola d’Atene” RafaelloVatican, Stanza della Segnatura, Rome
For the new scuola
Summary
Ancient times→Medieval timesInvention of paper ( BC 2)3 Major Religions ( Buddhism, Christianity, Islamism)
Medieval times→Modern timesGutenberg printing press (1447)Renaissance, Reformation, Modern rationalism
Modern times→ ??Computer (1946) , Internet (1969)?????
Progress in information technology gave birth to new thoughts and philosophy.
Environment got set.
Information technology such as internet will create new values.
You are the next leaders.
End
Thank you for listening these 3 lectures.
Dr. Fujiwara, Dr. Yoshimi, Dr. Tanaka, Dr. Kitsuregawa
and Ms. Otaki
Thank you!
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