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UKCIP08 What to expect from the next set of climate change scenarios
Richard Lamb
UK Climate Impacts Programme
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UKCIP
Set up by UK Government in 1997
Funded by Defra; based at Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford
UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP)
“helps organisations to assess how they might be affected by climate change, so that they can prepare for its impacts”
Focus on adaptation, given necessity of mitigation
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How UKCIP operates
Facilitates relationships between 3 groups of key actors
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UKCIP08
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CCIRG91 CCIRG96 UKCIP98 UKCIP02 UKCIP08 UKCIPnext
Background to UKCIP08 UK climate scenarios produced since 1991 UKCIP published climate scenarios in 1998 and 2002 Each version has become more detailed, building upon:
improved scientific knowledge increased computing power stakeholder requirements
Each has represented best scientific understanding at that time Audience has evolved and grown
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Dedicated UKCIP08 interactive website
Everything will be available in one place Key findings
Reports
Pre-prepared maps and graphs.
Interactive user interface (to give customisable output)
Weather Generator
Online help and user guidance
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UKCIP08 layered approach
Newspaper advertNewspaper advert
Recommendation from sales advisorRecommendation from sales advisor
Internet research (multiple sources)Internet research (multiple sources)
Key FindingsKey Findings
Published materialPublished material
Customisable outputCustomisable output
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UKCIP08 principles
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1. Examination of the uncertainty associated with the Met Office Hadley Centre climate model
2. Assessment of the quality of model version results from the Met Office Hadley Centre climate model
3. Incorporation of results from other climate models
UKCIP08 principles
UKCIP08 based on three important principles:
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Modelling uncertainties – UKCIP02 as a starting point
UKCIP02Medium-High Emissions
Summer 2080s
Size of
change
Time
This gives one future climate change outcome...
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Modelling uncertainty – UKCIP08
Size of change
Time
31 parameter values
~300 versions of the Met Office Hadley Centre climate model
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Size of change
Time
Single results from other IPCC climate models
Modelling uncertainties – different models give different results
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Modelling uncertainty – UKCIP08
Size of change
Time Count
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Modelling uncertainty – PDFs are modified to incorporate single runs of other IPCC models
Size of change
Probability
Single results from other IPCC climate models
included
UKCIP08 “probabilistic
climate projection”
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Using UKCIP08
What users wanted
Address the limitations of previous UK climate scenarios Improved consideration and quantification of associated
uncertainties – probabilistic information
Improved spatial and temporal details
More information about climate change in the marine environment
Improved accessibility (dedicated online user interface)
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Greater spatial and temporal detail
• 25km X 25km grid
One PDF for each of these
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Greater spatial and temporal detail
• Administrative regions
•25km grid
• Pre-defined aggregated areas
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Greater spatial and temporal detail
• River basins
•25km grid
• Pre-defined aggregated areas
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Greater spatial and temporal detail
• 5km grid
• Observed climate datasets including daily max and min temperature
• Weather Generator to provide statistical expressions of future daily weather consistent with the climate projections (over land areas)
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Provides a statistical expression of future climate at daily time-scales
Allows exploration of climate variables at daily time scale
Adjust observed data using change factors randomly taken from a PDF
Future 30-year time period simulated many times – long sequences of daily output that will be consistent with the UKCIP08 probabilistic climate projections. Uses observed climate (1961 to 1995) at daily time scale
The UKCIP08 Weather Generator
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• Climate change for marine regions
• Sea areas based on Defra “Charting Progress” report
• 9 data sets available
•Probabilistic Data
How UKCIP08 will offer an increased level of detail
PDF available for each area
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•Storm surge model
•12km resolution•Not probabilistic
How UKCIP08 will offer an increased level of detail
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•Sub-surface model
•12km resolution
•Not probabilistic
•Salinity, temperature and currents
How UKCIP08 will offer an increased level of detail
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Marine Projections
Probabilistic projections of changes to surface air temperature, precipitation, windspeed and cloud
Absolute sea-level rise over a single UK domain, plus relative sea-level rise for a areas of the coastline
Probabilistic-like projections of extreme water levels (storm-surges) for 2-50yr return periods over the European Shelf – 12 km resolution.
Single projection of changes to ocean subsurface temperature, salinity, E & W currents at 12km over the European Shelf
Wave information for the UK as a whole and for coastal regions. Medium emission scenario only
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2020s 2050s 2080s
How UKCIP08 will offer an increased level of detail
2030s
2040s
2050s
2020s
2060s
2070s
2080s
UKCIP02
Three 30-year time periods
UKCIP08
Seven overlapping 30-year time periods
2010 2040 2070 2099
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Change
Probability
LargerSmaller
UKCIP08 will present probabilistic climate projections for 3 emissions scenarios labelled as Low, Medium and High emissions (B1, A1B and A1FI)
UKCIP08 probabilistic climate projections do not address emissions uncertainty
Future emissions of greenhouse gases are used to drive climate models to project future climate – we cannot know what actual future emissions will be
Important effect beyond ~2050s
Warning!
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Supporting the use of UKCIP08
Have completed a series of awareness raising workshops
Post-launch training events:
Will cover entire UK
Will introduce UKCIP08 to new users and allow users to get “hands on” with the user interface
Will be supported by e-learning
Training
User Guidance
Guidance on ways in which the information provided by UKCIP08 can be used
Will include worked examples, frequently asked questions and getting started section
To be updated and revised based on users’ experience once UKCIP08 is available