© Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP/GRID-Geneva, 2011.
Pascal PeduzziUNEP/GRID-Geneva
Enhancing resilience and sustainable development through ecosystems-based disaster risk reduction
Kingston,9 December 2011
www.grid.unep.chRiVAMPQuantifying the role of ecosytems
© Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP/GRID-Geneva, 2011.
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1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
World Population1975: 4.1 billion1990: 5.3 billion2011:7.0 billion
Over 7 billions people on earth in 2011
What is global change?
© Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP/GRID-Geneva, 2011.
More than 50% of world population is now urban…… and about a third of urban population lives in slums
© Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP/GRID-Geneva, 2011.
1973 – a town of 400’000 inhabitants
Images courtesy USGS
Las Vegas
2000 – 1 million inhabitants
2010 – 1.9 million inhabitants
© Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP/GRID-Geneva, 2011.
Las Vegas
© Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP/GRID-Geneva, 2011.
Aral sea: coton is drying out the sea
© Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP/GRID-Geneva, 2011.
18 June 2009
20042002
8 Jan. 2010
© Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP/GRID-Geneva, 2011.
Lake Chad
© Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP/GRID-Geneva, 2011.
Honduras: shrimps eat mangroves
1987-1999: shrimps farms are replacing mangroves in the golf of Fonseca.
© Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP/GRID-Geneva, 2011.
Mine de cuivre en Papua Nouvelle-Guinée
1990-2004: Impacts d’exploitations minières dans le lit de la rivière
© Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP/GRID-Geneva, 2011.
1975 – Natural forest cover
Amazonia: lungs cancer
Rondonia, Brésil
1989 - Patterns showing conversion of forest to crops.
2001 – Crops are supplanting forest
© Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP/GRID-Geneva, 2011.
1973: Forests
2000: Deforestation in Paraguay
Barrage d’Itaipu et rivière d’Iguazu
© Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP/GRID-Geneva, 2011.
LessPhotosynthesis
LessCarbon sinks
Warmer temperatures
More CO2
More droughts
Less precipitationsHigher temperatures
MoreForest fires
Deforestation
Climate change, deforestation, drought and forest firesA triple-loop of positive feedbacks
© Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP/GRID-Geneva, 2011.
Data sources: Knutson et al. 2010
Forecasted Tropical cyclones changes in frequency and intensity as of 2030
© Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP/GRID-Geneva, 2011.
Glaciers:Precipitations’buffers and watertanks.
© Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP/GRID-Geneva, 2011.
19792007
© Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP/GRID-Geneva, 2011.
Sea level rise faster than expected
© Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP/GRID-Geneva, 2011.
Future projections
Future sea level (rel. to 1990) basedon IPCC AR4 global temperature projections
Full range: 75 – 190 cm by 2100
Vermeer & Rahmstorf, PNAS 2009
constant rate 3.2 mm/year
© Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP/GRID-Geneva, 2011.
Fig.1 Beach erosion (defined as irreversible coastline retreat) due to increased sea level
S, coastal retreat, α, sea level rise
Driver 1: Sea level rise (ASLR), process
© Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP/GRID-Geneva, 2011.
1. How can we protect us ?
© Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP/GRID-Geneva, 2011.
…costly engineered coastal defence measures……and not necessarily very helpful…
Poorly thought post 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami Actions
© Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP/GRID-Geneva, 2011.
Wall for stabilizing slopes?
© Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP/GRID-Geneva, 2011.
Role of vegetation
© Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP/GRID-Geneva, 2011.
Role of vegetation
© Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP/GRID-Geneva, 2011.
© Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP/GRID-Geneva, 2011.
Can be useful and/or needed
Are usually costly
Need maintenance
Do not provide services in absence of hazard
No esthetical value
Engineered solutions
© Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP/GRID-Geneva, 2011.
Natural and environmental friendly
Cost effective
Easy and fast installation (can be done with local population.
Low (if any) maintenance
Esthetical value
Carbon storage
Support biodiversity
Can remove excess of nitrates, phosphates and farm chemicals
Ecosystems: the “no regret option”
© Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP/GRID-Geneva, 2011.
2. RiVAMP
© Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP/GRID-Geneva, 2011.
Negril
Erosion rate between 1968-2006 : 0.5 and 1 m/yr(large temporal and spatial variability; Smith Warner International, 2007)
Observation 2006-2008, shows that beach erosion continues (UNEP, 2010)
© Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP/GRID-Geneva, 2011.
of Jamaican Experts
&
Local Community
consultations
© Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP/GRID-Geneva, 2011.
6m depth
Erosion
Profiles
Data extractionSatellite imagery
To classify marine ecosystems
GIS analysis
Data retrieval and remote sensing to identify erosion rate
© Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP/GRID-Geneva, 2011.
Multiple regression analysis
The model explains 41% of the erosion (correlation r=0.64).
Sea grass, slopes and waves were selected as significant parameters in the model. Sea grass plays the main role (47%): the wider the sea grass the less the erosion.
Erosion rate behind sea grass
© Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP/GRID-Geneva, 2011.
Multiple regression analysis
Erosion rate behind coral
The model explains 83% of the erosion (correlation r=0.91).
Coral width and slopes were selected as significant parameters in the model. Width of coral plays the main role (59%): the wider the coral the less the erosion.
© Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP/GRID-Geneva, 2011.
Coastal ecosystem importance: beach protection by seagrass meadows
Fig. 11. Modelled bed shear stress (force per unit area) (SBEACH mode (wave height 1 m, period 6s) in the Negril coastal zone
The seagrass meadows spread the wave force on wider area and dissipate wave energy
Without meadows
With meadows
© Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP/GRID-Geneva, 2011.
Waves H=2.8 m, T= 8.7s
Sea level rise 1m
Coastal ecosystem importance: beach protection by coral reefs
Fig. 9b. Modelled bed shear stress (force per unit area) (SBEACH model) induced by waves in the Negril coastal zone, showing the protection effects of inshore coral reefs
© Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP/GRID-Geneva, 2011.
© Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP/GRID-Geneva, 2011.
© Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP/GRID-Geneva, 2011.
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If all sea grass removedIf behind 1km of sea grass
© Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP/GRID-Geneva, 2011.
3. RiVAMP capacity building
empowering people
© Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP/GRID-Geneva, 2011.
RiVAMP training (Kingston, 5-8 Dec. 2011)
© Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP/GRID-Geneva, 2011.
RiVAMP training (Kingston, 5-8 Dec. 2011)
More than 20 people trained
OpenSource software
Data collected and centralized
Methodology in a step by step training manual
Political willingness
Commitment to environmental governance
What we provided:
What we can assist but not provide:
© Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP/GRID-Geneva, 2011.
RiVAMPLet’s make it happened!
www.grid.unep.ch