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ZUBAIR ASMALNephrologist, Pretoria
CKD and ESRD Prevalence of ESRD Predicted prevalence of ESRD Prevalence of HIV HIV and Kidney disease HIV in Transplantation
Difference between CKD and ESRD Proteinuria and eGFR Differences between definition and
methodology Few studies done Studies that have been done are biased in
some way
Meta-analysis of 90 studies Study quality was low (20% medium, 3%
high) 93% studies were urban No difference between urban and rural Prevalence of CKD was 13.9% (about 7
million)
Inaccurate Reflects only patients on dialysis and
transplanted Many patients not diagnosed ?80% of patients not accepted Huge difference between public and private
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000
2012
2013
2014
3182
3150
3280
5377
5690
6311
Private
Public
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1994 2012 2013 2014
073 71.3 72.6
0
620 648.1716.3
70
164 167 178
Public
Private
Overall
71.8
13.514.7
2014
Haemodialysis
Peritoneal
Transplant
71.2
1414.8
2013
Haemodialysis
Peritoneal
Transplant
67.114.1
18.8
2012
Haemodialysis
Peritoneal
Transplant
Hypertension 32.4% Diabetes 13.3% (public 11.2%, private 47.2%) Glomerulonephritis 33.7% HIV 6% Uncertain or not stated 12.8% Miscellaneous 7.8%
32.531.7 32.4
12.4 11.813.3
9.5
36.533.7
36.1
12.8 12.8
3.3 3.1
7.8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2012 2013 2014
Hypertension
Diabetes
Glomerulonephritis
Uncertain
Miscellaneous
78% of people over age of 50 (Int. J. Epidem, feb,2014)
30.4% of adult population (CVJ Africa, nov2014)
15-20% of patients with hypertension develop kidney disease
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
410
22
39
52
60
11
20
42
60
70
78
1.65 36.3 9 10.5 11.7
1998
2008
CKD
20.1
17.6
12.4
9.4
6.2 5.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
2011
Age Population Hypertension CKD ESRD15-24 10 378 019 1 141 582 228 316 5 70725-34 9 088 327 1 817 665 363 533 9 08835-44 6 416 386 2 694 882 538 976 13 47445-54 4 838 572 2 903 143 580 628 14 51555-64 3 183 176 2 228 223 445 644 11 14165+ 2 765 990 2 157 472 431 494 10 787
36 670 470 12 942 967 2 588 591 64 712
64 712 pt should be on dialysis secondary to hypertension (32.4%)
+/- 200 000 pts in total have ESRD
2.28 million people with diabetes 20-40% develop CKD 456 000 patients with CKD +/- 0.75% of total diabetics develop ESRD 17 100 of diabetics in ESRD 130 000
130 000 to 200 000 possible ESRD 65 000 to 100 000 people require kidneys!!!
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
2012 2013 2014
248 246 219
1607 1307 1414
69527533
8177
New Transplant
Transplant
Dialysis
100000
219
Patients Needing Transplant Current Transplant
8177
219
Patients Needing Transplant Current Transplant
7 million people 19.2% adult HIV prevalence 380 000 new HIV infections 30% develop ckd 48% on HAART 4,9 million can potentially donate
Initially, infections and sepsis (OI) HIVAN/HIVICK Drug related Chronic diseases
Rising prevalence of ESRD Many are still undiagnosed High prevalence of HIV Low transplant rate secondary to organ
shortage Should we be using HIV organs?