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Zoltán LippényiWhat are the determinants of intergenerational mobility in
Hungary?
What are the determinants of intergenerational mobility in
Hungary?
Comparing municipalities and periods before and during
modernization Social Stratification Research Seminar 2010
Utrecht, the Netherlands10 – 09 – 2010
Zoltán LippényiICS/Utrecht University
Zoltán LippényiWhat are the determinants of intergenerational mobility in
Hungary?
Comparative intergenerational mobility
– back to the past
• Towards open societies project (Marco van Leeuwen, Ineke Maas, ICS/UU/IISH)– Long-term intergenerational mobility in
several historical contexts
• Is there a trend towards increasing intergenerational occupational mobility?
• Could changes in occupational mobility be explained by industrialization, urbanization, and institutional development?
Zoltán LippényiWhat are the determinants of intergenerational mobility in
Hungary?
Intergenerational mobility in Hungary, 19th-20th Century
• Previous research: communism, transition 1989 (Szelényi, 1998; Bukodi & Róbert, 2004)
• “modernization”: increases from second half of the 19th Century (Berend & Ránki, 1982)
• Austro-Hungarian Monarchy (1867-1918)
• agricultural society with large farming underclass• immobility of agricultural classes decline
• regional and municipal differences in “modernization” (Beluszky & Győri, 2005)
• growing distances on the urban ladder
Zoltán LippényiWhat are the determinants of intergenerational mobility in
Hungary?
• Data collection: 60 Hungarian municipalities• Marriage records (1850-1950)
• Sampling: town and village typologies based on data from the 1930 Hungarian census
• Two-stage selection: – 1. towns from different macro-regions– 2. two-three villages from the town’s micro-region
Collecting mobility data from the past
Zoltán LippényiWhat are the determinants of intergenerational mobility in
Hungary?
Municipal centers industrial centers agrarian centers
Zoltán LippényiWhat are the determinants of intergenerational mobility in
Hungary?
Preliminary results
• Kalocsa (Mid-Hungary) and its rural outskirts
• 15-20.000 residents, primarily agrarian
• Marriages: 1895-1950
• men, aged 18 -40
• N= 2,247
Zoltán LippényiWhat are the determinants of intergenerational mobility in
Hungary?
050
100
150
200
250
num
ber of
mar
riage
s
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950
year of marriage
Total number of marriagesNumber of marriages
Number of marriages per year, Kalocsa 1895-1950
Zoltán LippényiWhat are the determinants of intergenerational mobility in
Hungary?
Data quality - coverage• Population: Kalocsa residents who lived in the town at the
time of their marriage
• “Unit non-response”:
– Never got married• Hajnal-line: marriage almost universal in most
Hungary (Hajnal, 1965)
– Married outside church• Secularization began in the 1950’s
– Married in another city• Hungary: joint household formation system (Hajnal,
1982)
• “Item non-response”:
– occupation of the father missing:• Father’s early death: Van Poppel and Van Gaalen
(2008) found no social status effect
Zoltán LippényiWhat are the determinants of intergenerational mobility in
Hungary?
Data quality – reliability• Comparability of father’s occupation with that of the
son:
– different life stage at time of measurement: overestimating downward mobility/immobility
• Class differences in marital age: could confound with change over time in mobility
• E.g. sons of farmers marry at older age increasingly over time relative to other classes greater mobility from agricultural origin
• Additional analyses: famers and farm workers marry earlier, but no time effect and no origin-destination class*time effect on age at marriage
• Quality of occupational measurement: more detailed titles more mobility observed
Zoltán LippényiWhat are the determinants of intergenerational mobility in
Hungary?
Occupations
• Occupational origin and destination:– HISCO (Van Leeuwen, Maas, Miles, 2002):
historically comparable occupational coding scheme– HISCLASS: 6 categories
• Higher managers and professionals• Lower managers and professionals• Foremen and skilled workers• Farmers• Lower/unskilled workers• Lower/unskilled farm workers
Zoltán LippényiWhat are the determinants of intergenerational mobility in
Hungary?
020
4060
8010
0
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950
year of marriage
% of grooms in agricultural classes% of grooms in industrial classes% of grooms in professional classes
Changes in the occupational structure, Kalocsa 1895-1950
Zoltán LippényiWhat are the determinants of intergenerational mobility in
Hungary?
020
4060
80%
of m
obile
gro
oms
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950
year of marriage
Intergenerational class mobility per year %, Kalocsa 1895-1950
Zoltán LippényiWhat are the determinants of intergenerational mobility in
Hungary?
Methods and model specification
• Multinomial conditional logit model (Breen, 1994; Hendrickx & Ganzeboom, 1998; Wu & Treiman, 2007)
• Quasi-equal row and column effects 2 model
– Equal scaled metric for origins and destinations
Origin-destination association:– Scaled association parameter
Immobility:– Overall immobility parameter (diagonal)– Immobility parameter for agricultural classes
Control covariates:– Immigrants– Rural outskirts
Zoltán LippényiWhat are the determinants of intergenerational mobility in
Hungary?
Model selection
Model LR chi2(diff)
Df (diff)
P BIC (diff)
Baseline: class-specific intercepts + association + immobility + covariates
3366 11 4790
M1: Baseline + time-varying intercepts
-199.5
5 .000
-152
M2: M1 + time-varying association and immobility parameters
-33.35
3 .000
-5
M3: M2 + time-varying association and immobility, separate for outskirts
-7.36 3 0.06
+21
M4: M1 + time-varying immobility parameters
-33.24
2 .000
-15
M5: M1 +time-varying overall immobility
-32.28
1 .000
-23
Zoltán LippényiWhat are the determinants of intergenerational mobility in
Hungary?
Higher managers and professionals
-0.63
Lower managers/ professionals
-0.29
Foremen/skilled workers -0.07
Lower skilled/unskilled workers
-0.02
Farmers 0.50
Farm workers 0.51
Parameter estimates M5Scaled metric
Zoltán LippényiWhat are the determinants of intergenerational mobility in
Hungary?
Origin-destination association 4.56 ***
Immobility 1.55 ***
Agricultural immobility .86 ***
Time * Higher managers and professionals
-.001
Time * Lower managers/ professionals
-.004
Time * Foremen/skilled workers -.027***
Time * Lower skilled/unskilled workers
REF
Time * Farmers -.048***
Time * Farm workers -.062***
Immobility*time -.02***
Parameter estimates M5
Zoltán LippényiWhat are the determinants of intergenerational mobility in
Hungary?
– Indicators: collected from gazetteers and census sources
– Population size (per 100 inhabitants)• 7 censuses: 1890, 1900, 1910, 1921, 1930, 1940, 1948• Other years: linear interpolation
– Yearly modernization-index (per 1000 inhabitants) • number of institutions in a given year
(bank, hospital, tax office)• number of schools• number of larger industrial establishments
– High correlations: separate models (time excluded)
Modernization and mobility
Zoltán LippényiWhat are the determinants of intergenerational mobility in
Hungary?
MODERNIZATION
Modernization* immobility -.30 ***
LR2 (17) = 3510, p<.000, BIC=4703
POPULATION
Population*immobility -.03 ***
LR2 (17) = 3517.17, p<.000, BIC=4697
Results
• Model 5: Baseline + main effects + immobility interaction
Zoltán LippényiWhat are the determinants of intergenerational mobility in
Hungary?
Conclusion
• Evidence of changing mobility regime before communism: declining immobility (1.3% per year)
• Similar decline in immobility for agricultural and non-agricultural classes
• No change in overall association and difference between city and its rural outskirts
• Modernization and population size: decreasing inheritance
Zoltán LippényiWhat are the determinants of intergenerational mobility in
Hungary?
Future plans
• More contexts: municipal level variation in modernity
• Multilevel modeling: combine MCL-estimates from several municipalities in meta analysis
• Comparability of vital records with representative survey data for the same period
• Urban centers and villages in their micro-regions: residential and intergenerational mobility
• Hungary, a multiconfessional land: intergenerational mobility and religion
Zoltán LippényiWhat are the determinants of intergenerational mobility in
Hungary?
Thank you for your attention!
Zoltán LippényiWhat are the determinants of intergenerational mobility in
Hungary?
Controls and additional model specifications
Immigrant (Stereotyped ordered effect)
+
Outskirt resident*agricultural occupation
+
Outskirt resident*industrial occupation
_
Father dead at time of marriage
n.s.
Aged 14 between 1914 and 1924 (1st World War)
n.s.
Quadratic time-specification n.s.
Leave out post 1945 marriages
identical results
Zoltán LippényiWhat are the determinants of intergenerational mobility in
Hungary?
The statistical model
logit(πj/πk) = αj – αk + (φj – φk)(μ0 + ∑ μtXt) φv + (βjt – βkt)Xt
∑ φj=0, ∑ φj2 = 1
Stereotyped ordered effect:
(φj – φk) ∑ βmXm
Estimation: Iteratively: φj scaling metric β parameters