Zimbabwe’s Agrarian Reform Zimbabwe’s Agrarian Reform and Prospects for Recoveryand Prospects for Recovery

Sam Moyo  

29 June 2009  

 Presented at University of South Africa, “UNISA African Visiting Scholars Lecture

Series” (28-30 June 2009) Pretoria South Africa

Global Political Agreement (GPA) Global Political Agreement (GPA) FRAMING THE DEBATEFRAMING THE DEBATE

1. Political Aspects: National healing; Integration and Deepened Democracy and Rights

2. Economic Policy Framework Liberalisation of Prices, Capital and Current Account Investment Policy (BIPPA’s, Indigenous) Partial Trade liberalisation Regional trade and economic policy harmonisation, and integration ( SADC, COMESA)

3. Agricultural Policy /Agrarian Reform: Bi- Modal Agrarian Development Strategy Promote diverse production and marketing systems; allow diversity; national interests

o Liberalisation of inputs and outputs (Commodity) prices; and Parastatal monopoly o Reform of State interventions (Marketing, new subsidies; public support)

4. Land Reform Irreversibility Framework: Accountability without reversing the redistribution Recognise the New Land Holding Structure and address Exclusions

o Equity Target: Gender, farm workers, ethnic - landless poor, whites and foreign Tenure System Transformed: Diversity of forms need security

o New: Leaseholds, Permits, Freeholds BIPPA’s + CAo Security of four rights (use, transfer, exclusion and protection) and collateral

Sustainable Land Use Regulation o Agricultural uses with support, conservancies, forestry and effective natural resource management systems

Compensation for acquired forms needs negotiation

5. Normalise international relations Isolation (Investment, trade credit, promotion, tourism) Sanctions (access to international financial and institutions – loans

NEED EMPIRICAL GROUNDING

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1.0 PERSPECTIVES ON ZIMBABWE’S AGRARIAN REFORM (1.1): PRE-20001.0 PERSPECTIVES ON ZIMBABWE’S AGRARIAN REFORM (1.1): PRE-2000

COMMON PERCEPTIONS REALITY

Smallholders “subsistence” producers 80% national food

70% marketed maize, pulses

Most food supplied by large farmers Mainly high value foods

Smallholder high nutrition foods

Little smallholder exports Cotton; Tobacco; Paprika;

Beef via LSCF

Rural employment mainly on large farms LSCF: 320,000 (50% FT)

Com. Areas: 2 million+

Food production was adequate

(“bread basket to basket case”)

Output declines from 1995+

High malnutrition levels then

Customary Tenure Bad

Freehold Tenure good

Mixed performance results

­ LSCF land underutilization

­ High smallholder productivity

Historic state investment bias

Wider non-tenure financing base

Environmental “crisis”

in C. Areas

­ Overcrowding/resilience

­ Low inputs system

­ Low water/rainfall resources6/29/2009 Sam Moyo 3

1.2 Perceived post Fast Track land and agrarian 1.2 Perceived post Fast Track land and agrarian outcomesoutcomes

COMMON PERCEPTIONS REALITY

All large framers displaced • Many remaining

Mostly elites got land (Zanu PF) • Non-elites 140,000 (A1)

• 15,500 (A2) – includes ‘petty’ elites

Total agricultural output collapse • Declined overall but complex

• Less for some (eg cotton, beans)

Main problem is lost/lack of skills • Inputs supply is key

Production declines ‘irreversible’ • Slow upward turn (beans, tobac)

All new farmers unproductive • Differentiated investment patterns

• New output focus

No investments on farms

(tenure/banks)

• Financing constraint

• Mixed investment pattern

Support systems dead (inputs/services) • Inadequate/new finance forms

Environment destroyed (trees/animals) • New clearance/regulation!

Land tenure insecurity • Complex interrelated factors

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Farm types/numbers Farm type: Area

New agrarian structure

2.1.22.1.2 Farm size differentiation: class formation?Farm size differentiation: class formation?

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0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

1-20

21-50

51-120

121-250

251+

No. beneficiaries

farm

siz

e ra

nges

(ha)

A2

A1

2.3.1 Overall distribution outcome2.3.1 Overall distribution outcome

Arena Benchmark Indices

Land Redistribution Equitability One household, one farm

Class equity (Multiples and oversized)

Gender equity In Own rights 18% Married - most

‘Decongestion’ Some Communal Areas!

Exclusion/Inclusion Ethnicity and Race

Resource Distribution Equitable allocation Irrigation resources to some

Prime infrastructure)to few Agrarian Structure New structure Large, middle farm & small farm

Development strategy Production System New production profiles Part-time/ full time farming

Labour productivity/jobs

Farm establishment Land uptake Land offers, uptake & unallocated land Some land disputes

Integrated Settlement New rural settlements Residential and service centres

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Overall Land Redistribution Issues

2.22.2 Social differentiation of beneficiaries Social differentiation of beneficiaries (origins, jobs, (origins, jobs, labour)labour)

2.2.12.2.1 Origins of the beneficiariesOrigins of the beneficiaries

2.2 Social differentiation of beneficiaries (origins, jobs, labour)

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0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

Other*

CA

LSCF

Urban area

Employment elsewhere

No. beneficiaries

Origins

Female

Male

A2

A1

2.2.2 Employment histories of beneficiaries: class background?2.2.2 Employment histories of beneficiaries: class background?

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0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

Other

Security forces

CS unskilled

CS semi-skilled

CS managerial/skilled

Self employed

Pvt unskilled

Pvt semi-skilled

Pvt managerial/skilled

Not employed

Current

Past

*Pvt – Private, CS- Civil Servant ; **Other – Farm worker, domestic worker, informal, student/diaspora

2.2 Gender dimensions of access to redistributed land2.2 Gender dimensions of access to redistributed land

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0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400

Male

Female

No. beneficiaries

Sex of plot ownerA2

A1

2.5.2 Foreign owned farms a key battle 2.5.2 Foreign owned farms a key battle (500 000 ha)(500 000 ha)

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3.0 EMERGING LAND TENURE SYSTEM & SECURITY ISSUES3.0 EMERGING LAND TENURE SYSTEM & SECURITY ISSUES

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KEY ISSUES FREEHOLD LEASEHOLD PERMITS (old & new/A1)

CUSTOMARY STATE LAND

Legal basis Assigned Few remain Expanded

(ca 20,000)Expanded (ca 250,000)

1.2 million

Duration Perpetual 25 to 99 years Perpetual Perpetual ?

Records (survey/registration)

Few (116) registered or surveyed

Not yet N/A Few unrecorded

Collaterable Sometimes? No No

Transactable Yes on approval Not in law but informally

Informally

Inheritable Yes Yes Yes (customary law)

Yes (subject to customary law)

N/A

Gender rights

Spouse right optional

Spouse right registrable

Spouse right registrable

Customary practice

N/A

Figure 4.3: Land Use Trends: Maize production Figure 4.3: Land Use Trends: Maize production in Zimbabwein Zimbabwe

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Figure 4.5: Key exports’ output trendsFigure 4.5: Key exports’ output trends

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Fig. 4.6: Soya beans, groundnuts, beans & sunflower output trendsFig. 4.6: Soya beans, groundnuts, beans & sunflower output trends

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5.0 UNDERSTANDING AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION DECLINE5.0 UNDERSTANDING AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION DECLINE

5.1 Dominant Perspectives on Causes of Agricultural Decline5.1 Dominant Perspectives on Causes of Agricultural Decline

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Chart 5.1 Policy matrix: factors affecting agricultural productionChart 5.1 Policy matrix: factors affecting agricultural production

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POLICY ARENA CONSTRAINING FACTOR/ PROCESSES SOURCE FACTORWEATHER Droughts, flooding

Mitigation/irrigationExternal Technology

LAND TRANSFERS AND TENURE

Reduced sizes/area planted (some crops) Land disputes and conflicts Tenure security

Wider policy

Land tenure

New resource & production structure

INPUTS USE

Agro-industrial supply bottlenecks (Seed, fertilizer, agro-chemicals)

Distribution bottlenecks (markets/transport) Access/affordability (credit)

Macro-econ and agricultural policy

constraint

Technology &

capital

FARMER SKILLS AND ORGANIZATION

Skills “deficit” Extension services deficiency New farmer organization

Micro-institutional Extension

Training

FARM INVESTMENTS AND FINANCING

On-farm infrastructure/irrigation deficits Domestic financing models/deficiency

­ State (Credit/subsidies): inadequate­ Private (credit/sub-contract)

External financing (BoP loss)­ Retreat of merchants (tobacco, hort) ­ Bretton Woods/Bi-lateral loans loss

Smallholder recovery aid deficits

Macro-econ policy

Deficiency & negative external policies (isolation/ratings)

Finance

System shift

Reduced lending

MARKETS LOSS

Marketing channels control/monopolies (capacity, incoherence, infeasible)

Price controls: Unviable/infeasible External agricultural markets loss Tourists (image) and multipliers loss, trade

restrictions, smuggling

External policies and economic policy incoherence

Roles of state, markets; external relations

5.2 Proximate Causes and Factors of Decline5.2 Proximate Causes and Factors of Decline

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Fig 5.1: Zimbabwe Fertilizer Production and Consumption: 1999 - 2008

6.1 Dominant Perspectives on Agrarian Decline & Recovery6.1 Dominant Perspectives on Agrarian Decline & Recovery

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COMMON PERCEPTIONS EMERGING REALITIESRecovery possible only if LSCF is reconstituted

­ Dynamic/diverse forms of farming at play

Reproducing past output patterns is most beneficial

­ Yes for food but broader outputs

­ Why continue some exports (e.g. tobacco)

Some exports are too complex for small farmers

­ Exports contribution curve is growing

Investment only if “title” is provided to all farmers

­ Non-freehold investment occurs

­ Enabling new farmers works

Financing is limited by scale economies and title

­ New market structures emerging

­ New financing mechanisms emerging

Environmental “crisis” or tragedy is pending

­ Land clearing is stabilizing­ New forms of environmental

stewardship

6.2 Proposed Framework for Agrarian Recovery6.2 Proposed Framework for Agrarian Recovery

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Macroeconomic Policy Environment

(heterodoxy/regulation and markets, and aid)

Agricultural Policy Environment: markets and public services

(sub-sectoral capacities, extension, research and subsidies)

Agro-industrial Sector and Trade Policies

(Agricultural markets; agro-processors; input suppliers; etc)

Social Policy and agricultural/economic policy linkages

(food, farm incomes, farm labour)

Land tenure and/or property rights; improved land access

(forms of secure tenure, tenure administration, compensation)

CONCLUDING COMMENTCONCLUDING COMMENT

A sustainable agrarian reform:◦Ensure national ownership of the strategy and

implementation

◦Embedded in equitable designed integration

Agenda requires more research and analysis than is so far evident

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