The Framework of Hydro-Hegemony: A Ne Frame ork of Anal sis ofA New Framework of Analysis of

Transboundary Water Conflict

Second International Workshop on Hydro-Hegemony

6/7 May 2006

Mark Zeitoun

How Important is…

P iti ?Position?

Ideology?

Law? POWERLaw?

the approach of the

FRAMEWORK OF HYDRO HEGEMONYFRAMEWORK OF HYDRO-HEGEMONYconsiders two features:

A.Varying Intensities of Conflict

• i.e. the absence of war does not mean the absence of conflict…

B I fl f PB. Influence of Power

• explains why many water conflicts are silent

• determines the conflict’s intensity

A. Varying Intensities of Conflict

Scale Event Description7 V l t U ifi ti i t ti7 Voluntary Unification into one nation6 Major Strategic Alliance (International Freshwater Treaty)5 Military Economic or Strategic Support5 Military, Economic or Strategic Support4 Non-military Economic, Technological or Industrial Agreement3 Cultural or Scientific Support (non-strategic)3 Cultural or Scientific Support (non strategic)2 Official Verbal Support of goals, values, or regime1 Minor Official Exchanges, Talks or Policy Expressionsg , y p0 Neutral or non-significant acts for the inter-nation situation-1 Mild Verbal Expressions displaying discord in interaction-2 Strong Verbal Expressions displaying hostility in interaction-3 Diplomatic-Economic Hostile Actions-4 Political-Military Hostile Actions-5 Small Scale Military Acts6 E t i W A t i d th di l ti hi h t t i t-6 Extensive War Acts causing deaths, dislocation or high strategic costs

-7 Formal Declaration of War

B. Influence of Power

Three Levels of Power Four levels of Hegemony

I am talking of millionsI am talking of millions of men who have b kilf ll i j t dbeen skilfully injected with fear, inferiority complexes, trepidation, servility,trepidation, servility, abasement… Aimé Césaire

The weaker social group borrows the conception of the stronger group for “its conduct is not independent and

Is it not the supreme exercise of power to get …others to have the desires you want them to have – that is, to stronger group for its conduct is not independent and autonomous, but submissive and subordinate”. Gramscisecure their compliance by controlling their thoughts and desires? Lukes

Competition Continuum

CASE STUDYCASE STUDY

The Palestinian – IsraeliThe Palestinian – Israeli

Water ConflictWater Conflict

Israeli Structural Power - Jenin April 2002

…damages due to IDF military activitymilitary activity.

Israeli and Palestinian BargainingPower -

The Joint Water Committee

72% of West Bank

Israeli Ideational Power -

Master Planning

and Hadera-Tulkarem

Figure 1 – Plan View proposed “Hadera – Tulkarem” Project.

√√

F t A f R hFuture Areas of Research:

• Other Water Conflicts

Oth T f W t C fli t• Other Types of Water Conflict

• Elimination of Water Conflict:Elimination of Water Conflict:

• International Water Law

• Hydropolitical Complex Theory

C t H / R i ti H• Counter Hegemony / Resisting Hegemony

t i t d i t

Moving along…securitisation

ideology

restricted sovereignty

i t l tideology

benefit-sharing

virtual water

riparian positionregimes

benefit sharing

desecuritisation

politics POWERWater Law

desecuritisation

Is a transboundary water-sharing culture emerging?Let us work to develop it.

Thank-you.

The Israeli Solution:

Perpetuate the current inequitable allocation andca

tion

inequitable allocation and provide funding for new

water to enhance

New

er A

lloc

Palestine’s share

Newall W

ate

New

Ove

ra

Isra

el

Isra

el

The Palestinian Solution (1):

Reallocate the existingcatio

n

Reallocate the existing water resources,

generating equitableer A

lloc

generating equitable allocations

all W

ate

Ove

ra

Isra

el

Isra

el

The Palestinian Solution (2):

Develop and allocate the catio

n

“new water” - note that the end point is the same

i th I li hter A

lloc

New

as in the Israeli approach

rall

Wat

New

Ove

r

Isra

el

Isra

el

What You Can Do

Inform yourself:www.nad-plo.org

www.arij.orgwww.phg.org

www.un.org/law/ilc/texts/gwww.foeme.org

Lobby for Water Rights

SUSMAQ project

Adapted from SUSMAQ project

Well yield (& number)

West Bank

Israel

Shortages of Water in Different Sectors, West Bank and Gaza (million cubic meters per year)

(from PWA 2003)

“Unserved” Villages in West Bank:150 villages

~450 000 people~450,000 people

Water Quality in Gaza (mg/litre)

WHO Standard Levels in GazaWHO Standard Levels in GazaNitrates 50 ~200

Chlorides 250 >400Chlorides 250 400

TDS (salinity) 1000 >1500