Yr 10 Research-Global Warming

YR 10 RESEARCHGLOBAL WARMING

By Minchul Park

10TPH

2010

Minchul Park © 2010All reference numbers are marked inside [ ]

Contents Abstract What is Global Warming? The temperature changes over the last 100 years Prediction of the average temperature in degrees Celcius in the year 2050 10 Possible causes for Global Warming 10 Effects of Global Warming What could be done to prevent this temperature change? – Internationally What could be done to prevent this temperature change? – Domestically What could be done to prevent this temperature change? – Locally The Greenhouse Effect If sea level rises, what would happen to the shape of New Zealand? – NZ land area If sea level rises, what would happen to the shape of New Zealand? – NZ Tourism If sea level rises, what would happen to the shape of New Zealand? – NZ lifestyle If sea level rises, what would happen to the shape of New Zealand? – NZ economy Deniers of Global Warming – are they Correct? Deniers of Global Warming – is there evidence to support their views? The result of the recent Copenhagen climate conference summit My personal opinion of Global Warming Bibliography

Minchul Park © 2010

Abstract There were three main finds I had. My first find was that there are deniers of global warming

and they actually “deny” that global warming is happening.

Therefore, question 8 really startled me for I had no knowledge of the deniers of global warming.

The second most find was that the cause of global warming are chemical pollutants.

The ten chemical pollutants that cause the global warming are mentioned in slide 7.

Lastly, the third find was about the recent Copenhagen summit. It was very surprising to see that decisions were unclear and vague.


What is Global Warming?

Global warming is a long term increase in the average surface of the world, usually relates with increased greenhouse gas concentrations.[1]


The temperature changes over the last 100 years

[2]


Prediction of the average temperature in degrees Celcius in the year 2050

According to this graph, the five year average of the year 2000 had the highest temperature anomaly (which means a departure from a reference value or long-term average [3]) with over 0.4 degrees Celcius.Therefore, my prediction is that in 2050, the average temperature will reach 1.8 degrees Celcius. Based on the fact that global temperature is constantly increasing. [no reference needed]

[2]


10 Possible causes for Global Warming Carbon dioxide: releases from burning coal, burning oil-based products and

burning of natural gas in industrial activity. Methane: releases from agricultural activities from livestock, its waste, oil

and gas operations and more. Black Carbon: releases from burning of forests and grasslands to make more

lands for agriculture. Halocarbons: releases from industrial operations Carbon monoxide: releases from the use of cars, burning of biomass. Volatile organic compounds (VOCs): releases from industrial processes and

from the use of transport. Nitrous Oxide: releases from agricultural activities that rely very much on

nitrogen fertilizers. Sulfur Hexafluoride: releases from industrial operations. Tetrafluoroethane: releases from industrial operations. Butane: releases from industrial operations.

All information from [4]Minchul Park © 2010

10 Effects of Global Warming People who live in the temperate countries of the world experience quite pleasant global

warming. Now their winters are milder and their springs come sooner. [5]

The current sea level is increasing and even by some 40cm (roughly in the middle of the expected range for this century), the number of people in danger of saltwater floods caused by storm surges could grow from some 75 million (today) to around 200 million. [5]

Winder snow cover will decrease and permanent frost around the Arctic will continue to melt. [6]

Heavy rain events are very likely (over 90% probability) to become more common. [6]

Storms have high chance of increasing in strength, though perhaps not in number. These storms are likely to move towards the opposite poles. [6]

There will be notable rainfall reductions over the Mediterranean and North Africa in winter, over the Mediterranean and western Europe in summer. [6]

A warmer climate can have a more direct effect on human health. The extremely hot western European summer of 2003 is estimated to have caused 45,000 deaths more than would have been expected in a normal summer. Also, this sort of summer is expected to become more or less average in Europe by the 2030s. [6]

Drought, extreme heat and fire are all expected to increase in frequency over the next century. [6]

Spread of disease can occur as northern countries gets warmer, disease carrying insects migrate north, bringing plague and disease with them. Indeed some scientists believe that in some countries, thanks to global warming, malaria has not been fully eradicated. [7]

Global warming brings economic consequences. Hurricanes and storms destroy cities and towns and this takes billions of dollars to repair the damage. [7]


What could be done to prevent this temperature change? - Internationally Internationally: reduce any global

warming pollutants e.g. carbon dioxide, methane and black carbon. [4]

This must include any gas emissions resulting from industrial processes, burning of biomass, land transportation and many more. [4]


What could be done to prevent this temperature change? – Domestically Domestically (in NZ): most importantly, try to cut down the use

of any devices that releases global warming pollutants. [9]

The government should introduce and make new public transport and ask people to use it more than their cars. This reduces individual’s greenhouse gas emissions by an average of 1600 pounds per year. [9]

Also, New Zealand government must encourage its people to recycle products and use recycled products. [9]

Plus, New Zealand government should urge people to buy locally made and locally grown products because The consumable products that we all purchase represent more than half of the average family's carbon footprint! If you successfully encourage neighbors to do this, store owners will be encouraged to stock local goods. [9]


What could be done to prevent this temperature change? - Locally Locally (at Macleans College): change the resource that

provides you with energy so you could supply yourself e.g. solar hot water heating and wind turbine. [8]

In addition, plant something! Plants and trees take in carbon dioxide and pump out oxygen. A single tree provides enough oxygen for two people for their entire lives. [13]

Also, use a carefully researched electricity supplier which uses your money to build new sources of energy. In individual households, buy food from local organic sources. Use unpackaged and unprocessed foods. Plus, try not to buy items that has large amounts of metal or weight of plastic. [8]


The Greenhouse Effect Radiation from the sun reaches the Earth’s surface and heats it up. Then is radiated back upwards and is absorbed by the atmosphere, which becomes heated. A lot of heat is then radiated back downwards, adding more heat to the surface.

Minchul Park © 2010 All information from [6]

If sea level rises, what would happen to the shape of New Zealand? – NZ land area

Most importantly, if sea level rises, obviously some area of New Zealand will submerge under water. [16]

This photo shows areas of Auckland that will submerge under water if the sea level rises up to 80m. [16]

[16]


If sea level rises, what would happen to the shape of New Zealand? – NZ Tourism

As mentioned in earlier slide, if sea level rises, some parts of New Zealand will most probably get submerged under water. [16]

Therefore, if sea level rises, some part of New Zealand like Tauranga will get submerged under water and obviously, people will not visit there and the tourism attraction in Tauranga will decrease. [16]

Also, great tourist attraction places like the Bay of Islands will lose its fame dramatically if sea level rises. [16]


If sea level rises, what would happen to the shape of New Zealand? – NZ lifestyle

Continuing development of coasts in areas such as Northland to Bay of Plenty in New Zealand are said to worsen the severity and frequency of storms and coastal flooding by 2050. [15]

This will have a great affect as to where people live in future. For example, as storms and floods increase, people will start to live inlands and this might even affect NZ economy. [15]


If sea level rises, what would happen to the shape of New Zealand? – NZ economy

If sea level rises, sea water will contaminate our drinking water by flowing into our water supply system. [15]

This will lead to water shortage and this will greatly affect our economy. People will not have water to drink, companies that uses water to make services and sell goods will lose everything because of water shortages. [15]

Also, as mentioned before in previous slide, as sea level rises, people will start to live inlands and this will cause the government to build houses for them. This will take millions of dollars to just build houses but the government must also consider damaged lands, contaminated drinking water by sea water and many other factors. If not, people might have to build houses for themselves. [15]


Deniers of Global Warming – are they Correct?

There are people who say that global warming is not happening and this is not true (the most vocal skeptics have been Rush Limbaugh, James Inhofe, Pat Buchanan, Glenn Beck, John Stossel, Lou Dobbs and Sean Hannity [4]).They are not correct. There are many evidences which tell us that global warming is obviously happening. For example, on slide 4 and 5 the graph shows that the temperature is rising. Also, it gives us the knowledge that the global temperature is certainly going to increase dramatically in a few years time. [no reference needed]

In addition, the graph below shows how carbon dioxide and average global temperature is related. This explains two main things: we should reduce our carbon dioxide emissions and average global temperature is related closely to carbon dioxide. [no reference needed]

On the first of August 2003, President Barak Obama’s ex-rival Senator John McCain himself said “Global warming is a serious threat. There is overwhelming evidence that increasing amounts of carbon dioxide and other green house gases are heating up the earth’s climate and that inaction could be disastrous”. [17]

Therefore, the deniers are wrong!

[10]


Deniers of Global Warming – is there evidence to support their views? The views of the deniers of global warming can be divided into 6 parts: A) global warming isn’t real is just an illusion [4]

B) global warming is a purely natural phenomenon that has no relationship to the 90 million tons of global warming pollutants we put into the sky everyday [4]

C) humans could be the cause but global warming is just a natural trend [4]

D) even if we are making significant contributions to global warming it is alright because global warming is probably good for us [4]

E) any effort to solve the problem of global warming will be worse than the climate crisis itself [4]

F) if global warming is real, caused by mad-made pollution and is very bad for us than it is too late too address anyway [4]

The truth regarding their evidence is quite interesting. None of their arguments were accepted for publication in refereed, peer-reviewed scientific journals and some of their opinions were so extreme that it was laughable. For example, one denier argued that two observations of Pluto, 14 years apart, provided evidence of warming on Pluto. [4]

Their point was that if Pluto was warming at the same time as the Earth, that would imply that changes in the Sun’s output of Radiation was the common cause of warming throughout our solar system – and that we could absolve man-made greenhouse gas pollution of any responsibility for the increasing temperatures on our planet. But since it takes 248 Earth years for Pluto to trace its erratic orbit around the farthest reaches of our solar system (between 2.7 billion miles and 4.6 billion miles away from the sun) it is hard to imagine that anyone was fooled by such a ridiculous argument. [4]

Also they point out the Medieval Warm Period and say that global warming is just a regular natural occurrence. However, today’s global temperature is far more higher than Medieval Warm period that any opinions with this evidence is almost laughable. [14]


The result of the recent Copenhagen climate conference summit

There were many decisions made by the recent Copenhagen climate conference and these are some of the key points.

The increase in global temperature should be below 2 degrees. [11]

"Parties commit to implement individually or jointly the quantified economy-wide emissions targets for 2020 as listed in appendix 1 before 31 January 2010.“ [11]

This quote suggests developed nations to start working almost right after on reaching their mid-term emission targets. For the US, this is a low 14 to 17 percent reduction on 2005 levels; for the EU, a yet to be decided goal of 20 to 30 percent on 1990 levels; for Japan, 25 percent and Russia 15 to 25 percent on 1990 levels. [12]

Invest money to prevent deforestation. This is essential as forests use photosynthesis which involves taking in carbon dioxide and letting out oxygen. [12]

"We should co-operate in achieving the peaking of global and national emissions as soon as possible, recognising that the time frame for peaking will be longer in developing countries …" [11]

This “unclear” phrase is a disappointment to those who want nations to set a clear and reasonable date for emissions to fall, but will please developing countries who would rather put their economy first to develop. [12]


My personal opinion of Global Warming In my opinion, global warming is such a huge problem that every-single person in the world

should contribute something to solve this climate crisis. I agree with every scientists and critics who say people need to do something in order to

solve something that is just in our reach to manage. We can solve this, it is not too late. It will not be easy but we have to try. I hope this research has given you some knowledge as to why global warming is such a

problem and how we can contribute in terms of solving it. We can not let this happen:

[6]


Bibliography [1] The ministry for the Environment of New Zealand (June 2001) Climate change impacts on New Zealand,

Wellington; the Ministry for the Environment [2] http://www.globalwarmingchallenge.co.uk/theories.php (Harry Jubb; an A2 level student at Thomas Tallis

School in Kidbrooke, London, UK; date of access 18.03.10) [3] http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cmb-faq/anomalies.html (United States Department of Commerce; date of access

18.03.10) [4] Gore A.(2009) Our Choice-A plan to Solve the Climate Crisis, U.S.A; Rodale Inc. [5] Monbiot G.(2006) Heat, Australia; Penguin Books [6] Renowden G.(2007) Hot Topic, New Zealand; AUT media [7] http://www.environmentalgraffiti.com/sciencetech/5-deadliest-effects-of-global-warming/276 (United Kingdom;

date of access 19.03.10) [8] Goodall C.(2007) How to live a low-carbon life, United Kingdom; Earthscan [9] http://www.wikihow.com/Take-Action-to-Reduce-Global-Warming (wikihow U.S.A; date of access 20.03.10) [10] http://www.ci.austin.tx.us/acpp/mythsvsfacts.htm (Austin, Texas, U.S.A; date of access 21.03.10) [11] UNFCC (2009) Final Copenhagen Accord – Fifteenth Session, Copenhagen; UNFCC [12] http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/dec/18/how-copenhagen-text-was-changed (United Kingdom;

date of access 21.03.10) [13] de Rothschild D.(2007) The live Earth Global warming Survival Handbook, United Kingdom; Virgin Books Ltd [14] Gore A.(2006) An Inconvenient Truth, U.S.A; Rodale Inc. [15] http://timeforchange.org/effects-of-global-warming-by-region-ipcc-2007 (Ann-Kristin Peterson and Jürg

Rohrer; date of access 22.03.10) [16] http://the100metreline.blogspot.com/2009_06_01_archive.html (Nigel Williams; date of access 22.03.10) [17] J. Michaels P.(2005) Meltdown, U.S.A; Cato Institute.


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Yr 10 Research-Global Warming