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Social Science Applications for
Weather Enterprise Research
Laura Myers, PhDCenter for Advanced Public Safety
The University of Alabama Twitter: @drlauramyers
Email: [email protected]
Service Assessments and Impact Studies
•April 27th, 2011•Joplin, MO, 2011•Hurricane Irene, 2011•Derecho, 2012•Superstorm Sandy, 2012•Moore and El Reno tornadoes, 2013•January 2014 snow events in Al and GA•Spring 2015 floods
Houston, TX May 2015
Alabama: April 27, 2011
Joplin, Missouri 2011
Sandy
Outcomes• Warning modalities• Lead time and impacts/messaging• Secondary confirmation• Calls to action• Impact of uncertain and unique events• Complex events• Consistency• Simplification• Visualization/graphics
Winter Weather in the South
January 2014 Dusting Birmingham, AL
IMPACTS
January 2014 Dusting Atlanta, GA
Understanding the Warning
Warning-89%Watch-60%Advisory-41%
Why?
Above Ground ShelterMoore, OK
Sheltering Issues
Dear Laura
5 minutes remaining
Sincerely,
Jimmy and Daphne
Calls to Action• Risk communication• Crisis communication
– Tone/seriousness/message
– Impacts– Outlooks/Lead time– Watches and
warnings– Calls to action
Visual Cues/Secondary Confirmations
Informal Communications
Availability Bias• Draw on similar examples or experiences.
• Underestimation!!!!
• Overestimation!!!!
• 9-11 Effect
Prepared!
Optimism Bias• Always look on the bright side of life.
• About 80% of us!!!!
• Only marginally adjust when told it could happen.
• Fatalities result from optimism bias.
• Overestimate power of weather technology.
Leveraging Cognitive Bias
Simplification• Make the risk more real.
Contact Information• Dr. Laura Myers
• Center for Advanced Public Safety
• The University of Alabama
• Email: [email protected]
• Twitter: @drlauramyers
