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YOUNG IMMIGRANTS IN THE SPANISH LABOUR MARKET (1999-2005)
ELENA VIDAL I COSO (PhD in Demography Student)
Centre d’Estudis Demogràfics
(Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona)
Pop-Fest 2006
Liverpool, 19-21 June
STRUCTURE OF PRESENTATION
1. Theoretical framework: the dual labour market theory
2. Research questions
3. Data source: The Spanish Labour Force Survey
4. Methodological aspects
5. Results:
5.1. Probability of permanent labour contract
5.2. Probability of unskilled work
6. Conclusions
7. Final considerations
1. THE DUAL LABOUR MARKET THEORY(Piore, M., 1975, 1979)
• Labour market is divided into two essentially distinct segments:
• Primary segment: - high wages
- good workings conditions - chances of advancement
- employment stability
- skills required
- connote superior social status
• Secondary segment: - low-paying jobs
- poorer workings conditions - no-chances of advancement
- precarious and unstable employment
- unskilled work
- connote inferior social status
1. THE DUAL LABOUR MARKET THEORY(Piore, M., 1975, 1979)
• Three major groups of workers typically situated in secondary positions: • Youth
• Women
• Immigrants (quite recent source of labour force in Spain):
- response to general labour shortages
- satisfies the need to fill the bottom positions of social hierarchy
- meets the requirements of the secondary sector of a dual labour market
- work they do is finally identified as “immigrant work”
• COMPETITION vs. SUBSTITUTION/COMPLEMENTARITY between national and foreign labour force.
2. RESEARCH HYPOTESIS
• With the same socio-demographic characteristics young immigrant have more chance to be situated in the secondary labour market than young nationals.
• Labour instability and Unskilled work are indicators of secondary labour market:
• Despite of young population is in general very affected by temporality in Spain, probability of working with a permanent labour contract for young nationals is higher than for young immigrants.
• The improvement in educational levels in Spain during last decades increases labour aspirations of young workers. They won’t fill those occupations with poor skills required. Young immigrants in the Spanish labour market hold these positions nationals turn down: Substitution and Complementarity.
3. Data source: 1999-2005 Spanish Labour Force Survey
• Quarterly panel survey: 200,000 people in 65,000 households.
• Topics covered: socio-demographic and labour characteristics of Spanish population.
• It is carried out by the Spanish National Statistics Institute (INE).
• It is the source of the European LFS.
• Good representative sample survey with high response rate for general population.
• However, some sub-populations still underrepresented (foreign population).
• Small sample of foreign population (about 4%). Difficulty in desegregation.
4. METHODOLOGIAL ASPECTS
• Two explanatory models through logistic regression analysis in order to calculate the:
1. Probability of working with a permanent labour contract.
2. Probability of working in an unskilled job.
• Population of study: national and foreign young population from 16 to 29 years old.
• 8 Explanatory variables:
– Nationality
– Sex
– Age
– Region of residence within Spain
– Type of cohabitation
– Educational level
– Activity sector
– Quarter of interview (temporal evolution)
4. METHODOLOGIAL ASPECTS
• From logistic models we can obtain the probabilities:
• Probability=exp(ßi + ß0)*100/(1+exp(ßi + ß0))
5.1. PROBABILITY OF PERMANENT LABOUR CONTRACT
Permanent job by age
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
16-1
9
20-2
4
25-2
9
5.1. PROBABILITY OF PERMANENT LABOUR CONTRACT
Permanent job by region
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Com
unid
ad d
e M
adrid
Cat
alun
ya
La R
ioja
Arag
ón
Nav
arra
Cas
tilla
la M
anch
a
Illes
Bale
ars
Cas
tilla
y Le
ón
Can
tabr
ia
Astu
rias
País
Val
enci
à
Extre
mad
ura
Can
aria
s
Eusk
adi
Gal
icia
Mur
cia
Ceu
ta y
Mel
illa
Anda
lucí
a
5.1. PROBABILITY OF PERMANENT LABOUR CONTRACT
Permanent job by activity sector
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Trade and hotelsand restaurants
Industry andtransport
Financialintermediation, realstate, renting andrenting activities
Other services(domestic
service,…)
Publicadministration,education and
health
Construction Agriculture, forestryand f ishing
5.1. PROBABILITY OF PERMANENT LABOUR CONTRACT
Permanent job by nationality
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
Spanish EU15 Non EU15
5.1. PROBABILITY OF PERMANENT LABOUR CONTRACT
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Living alone Living as a couple:w ith or w ithout
parents
Living w ith parents
Spanish EU15
Non-EU15 Main effects
5.1. PROBABILITY OF PERMANENT LABOUR CONTRACT
Permanent job by sex
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
Male Female
5.1. PROBABILITY OF PERMANENT LABOUR CONTRACT
Permanent job by quarter
0%3%5%8%
10%13%15%18%20%23%25%28%30%33%35%38%40%43%45%48%50%53%55%58%
1º 1
999
2º 1
999
3º 1
999
4º 1
999
1º 2
000
2º 2
000
3º 2
000
4º 2
000
1º 2
001
2º 2
001
3º 2
001
4º 2
001
1º 2
002
2º 2
002
3º 2
002
4º 2
002
1º 2
003
2º 2
003
3º 2
003
4º 2
003
1º 2
004
2º 2
004
3º 2
004
4º 2
004
1º 2
005
2º 2
005
3º 2
005
Spanish EU15 Non EU15 Main effects
5.1. PROBABILITY OF PERMANENT LABOUR CONTRACT
Permanent job by educational level
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
Low Medium or high
5.1. PROBABILITY OF UNSKILLED WORK
Unskilled work by activity sector
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Agriculture,forestry and
fishing
Other services(domestic
service,…)
Construction Financialintermediation,
real state,renting and
renting activities
Industry andtransport
Trade andhotels andrestaurants
Publicadministration,education and
health
5.1. PROBABILITY OF UNSKILLED WORK
Unskilled work by educational level
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Low Medium or high
5.1. PROBABILITY OF UNSKILLED WORK
Unskilled work by nationality
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Spanish EU15 Non EU15
5.1. PROBABILITY OF UNSKILLED WORK
Unskilled work by region
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Ext
rem
ad
ura
An
da
lusi
a
Ca
nà
rie
s
Re
gió
de
Mú
rcia
Ast
úri
es
Ca
ntà
bri
a
Ca
still
a i
Lle
ó
Pa
ís V
ale
nci
à
Ca
ste
lla L
a M
an
xa
Ara
gó
Co
mu
nita
t de
Ma
dri
d
Ce
uta
i M
elil
la
Ga
lícia
Eu
ska
di
Ca
talu
nya
Ille
s B
ale
ars
La
Rio
ja
Na
varr
a
5.1. PROBABILITY OF UNSKILLED WORK
Unskilled work by age
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
16-19 20-24 25-29
5.1. PROBABILITY OF UNSKILLED WORK
Uneskilled work by quarter
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
1º 1
999
2º 1
999
3º 1
999
4º 1
999
1º 2
000
2º 2
000
3º 2
000
4º 2
000
1º 2
001
2º 2
001
3º 2
001
4º 2
001
1º 2
002
2º 2
002
3º 2
002
4º 2
002
1º 2
003
2º 2
003
3º 2
003
4º 2
003
1º 2
004
2º 2
004
3º 2
004
4º 2
004
1º 2
005
2º 2
005
3º 2
005
5.1. PROBABILITY OF UNSKILLED WORK
Permanent job by cohabitation pattern and nationality
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Living alone: withoutcouple or parents
Living as a couple,with or without
parents
Living with parents
Spanish EU15
Non EU15 Main effects
5.1. PROBABILITY OF UNSKILLED WORK
Unskilled work by sex
32%
32%
33%
33%
34%
34%
35%
35%
36%
36%
37%
Male Female
6. CONCLUSIONS
• Probability of working with a permanent labour contract:
• Increases in parallel with age.
• Different depending on the area: maximum in Madrid and minimum in Andalucía. Asturias
and Ceuta i Melilla higher percentages for non nationals.
• Activity sector: maximum in Trade and Hotels and Restaurants (despite of high seasonal
nature).
• Higher for Non-nationals and the lowest is for EU15.
• Higher stability if living as a couple. However, this is the least stable situation for Non-EU15.
• Men are more stable than women.
• More stability with medium or high educational level.
• Increasing in more recent quarter (decreasing in Non-EU15).
6. CONCLUSIONS
• Probability of holding an unskilled work:
• Decreases in parallel with age.
• Different depending on the area: in general terms is higher in rural regions.
• Activity sector: higher probabilities in agriculture, domestic service and construction
(high % of non-nationals) .
• Non-EU15, followed by Nationals and the least EU15.
• Higher probability if living as a couple. However, for Non-EU15 is higher if living alone.
• Men are much more unskilled than women.
• Less unskilled with medium or high educational level.
• Not clear temporal evolution.
6. FINAL CONSIDERATIONS
• Young immigrant (non EU-15) are worse situated in the Spanish labour market : their
chance to work with a temporary contract or to hold a unskilled job are higher than those
for national or EU-15 migrants, other socio-demographic characteristics being equal
(education, etc.)
• Are these differences between national and non-national labour force even more
accentuated in adult workers?
• Is this situation the first step in the settlement process or a permanent indicator of a
discriminatory labour market?