YnFx Cotton Price wEForecast - June 2013

8/12/2019 YnFx Cotton Price wEForecast - June 2013

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YnFx Cotton

Price

Forecast

‐June

2013

www.YnFx.com

Tel: 91

22

66291000

Fax:

91

22

22023563

permission of YNFX.com is strictly prohibited.

All prices in this PriceWatch Report are indicative prices and may vary according to the type of fiber, quality level required. Information

contained in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, however YNFX.com will accept no responsibility or liability for

commercial decisions claimed to have been based on the content of the report.

YnFx Cotton

Price

Forecast

‐June

2013

www.YnFx.com

Tel: 91

22

66291000

Fax:

91

22

22023563

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May‐13 Jun‐13 Sep‐13 Dec‐13

Actual Forecast Most likely Tentative

New York Futures New York US cents/lb 83.69 84.37 12.8 85.99 16.2 87.62 16.9

' '

World Cotton Fibre Price Forecast

Product / Specs Market % YoY % YoY % YoY

YnFx Cotton

Price

Forecast

‐June

2013

www.YnFx.com

Tel: 91

22

66291000

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. . . . . . .

Karachi Cotton Asso. Spot PakRs/Maund 6,565 6,635 10.9 6,820 20.6 7,005 15.6

East Texas

color

‐41,leaf

4,stapSpot US

cents/lb 77.95

78.64

20.9 80.28

18.9 81.93

18.4

American PIMA‐color 2, leaf 3 Spot US cents/lb 138.00 138.80 20.2 140.65 27.3 142.49 27.7

China Cotton Index Spot Yaun/ton 19,349 19,472 6.3 19,790 6.1 20,108 5.3

Bengal Deshi Assam Comilla Spot Rs/candy 34,200 34,513 ‐3.3 35,402 ‐8.6 36,291 2.8

Shankar‐6 Spot Rs/candy 37,600 37,911 12.8 38,751 11.2 39,592 18.9

100

150

200

250

US Cotton Futures

100

150

200

250Cotlook 'A'

NYLON CHAIN IN EUROPE & USA0

J

2011

FMAMJ J A S OND J

2012

FMAMJ J A S OND J

2013

FMAMJ

U S c e n t s / l b

0J

2011

FMAMJ J A S OND J

2012

FMAMJ J A S OND J

2013

FMAMJ

U S c e n t s / l b

4000

60008000

10000

12000

14000

KCA Spot Rate

20000

3000040000

50000

60000

70000

Shankar‐6

0J

2011

FMAMJ J A S OND J

2012

FMAMJ J A S OND J

2013

FMAMJ

P a k R s / m a u n

0J

2011

FMAMJ J A S OND J

2012

FMAMJ J A S OND J

2013

FMAMJ

I N R / c a n d y

YnFx Cotton

Price

Forecast

‐June

2013

www.YnFx.com

Tel: 91

22

66291000

Fax:

91

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22023563





Forecast for June 2013

GLOBAL COTTON MARKETS

Cotton prices are likely to move either side in June as there are a number of factors supporting the trend. Taking the bearish

factors first, the world cotton balance sheet shows a further rise in stocks to record levels of 20.2 million tons in 2013 ‐14

marketing season. Thus traders will be unwilling to follow prices up. Another bearish factor is the poor economic position

both, in Asia as well in the West.

YnFx Cotton

Price

Forecast

‐June

2013

www.YnFx.com

Tel: 91

22

66291000

Fax:

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Considering the bullish factors, the weather patterns in the US are pointing at late plantings and therefore a late harvestthat will make the 2013‐14 crop susceptible to losses. Drought in Texas and wet conditions in the southern states will

adversely impact yield. Since global production is expected to decline next season and the US current harvest is mostly

committed, the concern is that there will be little cotton to the autumn months.

A second positive factor for cotton prices is the continuation of China’s reserve policy which should see further increases in

its stocks as it would block cotton awa from the international markets which ma ush rices to hi her level. , .

Taking into consideration China’s reserve price policy, the International Cotton Advisory Committee has projected Cotlook A

Index at US cents 122 for the next season, 41 per cent higher than the current season which averages US cents 86 until now.

In case such a price is achieved, the obvious consequences would be a further loss of competiveness by cotton relative to‐

Trends in May

Cotton prices declined in major markets this May. The ICE cotton sank for a ninth straight session, the longest slide in three

years, to post the largest monthly drop since September, after long liquidation erased gains. The most ‐active July cotton

contract fell US cents 0.83 to average US cents 83.69 per pound. The December contract closed at US cents 82.06 per pound.

The Cotlook A index also lost US cent 0.10 closing the month at an average of US cents 92.30. China Cotton Index was down

o er re, a s m ar scenar o w nesse n ‐ season.

uan a , uan a on.

In Pakistan, modest trading was witnessed on the cotton market as mills were reluctant to make new deals in expectations

of fall in prices due to early arrivals of Phutti. The official spot rate averaged PakRs 6,565 per maund ex‐Karachi, down

PakRs327 from April numbers. In India, prices movement was mixed with most varieties losing during the month. Prices of most specs lost 4 per cent while a few gained 1 per cent over the month.

YnFx Cotton

Price

Forecast

‐June

2013

www.YnFx.com

Tel: 91

22

66291000

Fax:

91

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22023563




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YnFx Cotton Price wEForecast - June 2013