Year to Date Market Statistics Favor the Bear

Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com. ValuEngine is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in N ewtown, PA. V aluEngine covers over 7,000 stocks every day. A variety of newsletters and portfolios containing Suttmeier's detailed research, stock picks, and commentary can be found at http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl March 23, 2011 – Year t o Date Mark et Stat istic s Favor the Bear All you hear on financial TV are the cheerleaders who tout that the bull market is alive and well. I have disagreed with this notion saying that the February 18 th highs are the highs for the year. The Dow declined 6.7% from its February 18 th high at 12,391.29 to its March 16 th low of 11,555.48, and the rebound over the past four sessions has been 4.0% leaving the Industrials 3.0% below its February high. The NASDAQ declined 8.3% from its February high at 2840.51 to its March 16 th low of 2603.50, and the rebound over the past four sessions has been 3.1% leaving the NASDAQ 5.5% below its February high. The NASDAQ ended last week with a negative weekly chart, which stays negative on a close this week below 2725. The worst performance has been the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) which peaked at 474.33 in mid-February. From that high to the mid-March low the SOX lost 13.8%. The rebound since Thursday through Monday was 3.5%, which leaves the SOX 10.8% below its high for the year. Stocks Remain Overvalued Fundamentally – We are not operating under a ValuEngine Valuation Warning, but 56.6% of all stocks are overvalued. In addition 15 of 16 sectors are overvalued with 5 by double-digit percentages. Tracking the Bearish Moving Average Crossovers – This occurs when the 21-day simple moving average trends below the 50-day simple moving average.

Documents

Year to Date Market Statistics Favor the Bear