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IR-Date: 2013-10-18 0 18 October 2013 Yara International ASA Third Quarter results 2013

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Page 1: Yara International ASA Third Quarter results 2013 › siteassets › investors › 057...IR-Date: 2013-10-18 0 18 October 2013 . Yara International ASA Third Quarter results 2013

IR-Date: 2013-10-18

0

18 October 2013

Yara International ASA Third Quarter results 2013

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IR-Date: 2013-10-18

1

Strong results despite weaker commodity fertilizer markets

17% increase in deliveries including Brazil acquisition Robust value-added premiums Stable NPK deliveries outside Europe

Strong Industrial deliveries, especially NOX abatement

Summary third quarter

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2

5.27

12.86

6.68 5.42

10.02

7.73

12.42 11.84

10.54 9.82

9.25

7.67 8.04

6.68

5.65

Earnings per share*

* Average number of shares for 3Q 2013: 277.6 million (3Q 2012: 281.4 million).

NOK 30.23 41.99 37.31 20.38

Annual 2010 2011 2012

EPS excluding currency and special items

2013

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3

Solid farm economics support fertilizer demand, despite lower grain prices

Increased exports from China led to supply-driven urea pricing

Western Europe nitrogen fertilizer industry deliveries 9% lower

Phosphate and potash markets impacted by reduced consumption in India, but compound NPK markets running well globally

Strong demand for value-added fertilizer products, including nitrates and NPKs

Fertilizer market development

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4

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1/2004 1/2005 1/2006 1/2007 1/2008 1/2009 1/2010 1/2011 1/2012 1/2013

Index

FAO price index

Cereals Price Index Cereals 5 year avg. Food Price Index Food 5 year avg.

Solid farm economics support fertilizer demand

Source: FAO

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5

Strong global urea demand, but increased export availability from China

40.3

+6.4

12/13 11/12

33.9

10/11

36.9

09/10

31.4

08/09

27.8

Global urea trade Chinese urea exports

251 350 448 378 389

xxx Average urea price, fob Black Sea

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

1 800 450

1 400

1 200

1 000

800

600

400

200

0

400 1 600

Jul-12

Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Sep-13

Jul-13

Chinese exports Urea price

USD/t Kilotons

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Cautious start to season in Europe and US

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3Q08 3Q09 3Q10 3Q11 3Q12 3Q13

Domestic Imports

Source: Yara estimate for fertilizer deliveries to selected West European countries. US nitrogen deliveries based on TFI, US Trade Commission, Blue-Johnson and Yara estimates*

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

3Q08 3Q09 3Q10 3Q11 3Q12 3Q13

Production Net imports

Western Europe USA*

-17%*

-9%

Million tons Million tons

*July only, due to non-availability of more recent US trade data

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0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

3Q09 3Q10 3Q11 3Q12 3Q13

CAGR 18%

Long-term growth in NPK deliveries outside Europe; stable year-over-year development

Kilotons Yara-produced NPK deliveries

Overseas Europe

198

64 73 76

15

237

86 68 72

18

271

95

64 54

14

Asia Brazil LatinAmerica excl.

Brazil

Africa NorthAmerica

Overseas Yara-produced NPK deliveries Kilotons

3Q13 3Q12 3Q11

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8

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000Kilotons

2012 2011 2013

Record production

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000Kilotons

* Including share of equity-accounted investees

Finished fertilizer Ammonia

2012 2011 2013

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9 Bunge acquisition completed and integration underway

Bunge Fertilizantes

Yara Brasil

Sales volume 2012 (mt) 4.6 3.3

Revenues 2012 (USD billions) 2.6 1.8

Employees ~1,300 ~1,300

SSP production units 2 1

Blending units 22 11

Own sales force ~100 ~80

Sales representatives ~500 ~300

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10 Bunge acquisition improves geographical balance 2012 Fertilizer deliveries, Yara and Bunge Brazil

Africa 1.2 mill. tons

Europe 9.6 mill. tons

Asia 1.9 mill. tons

North America 3.0 mill. tons

Latin America 4.7 mill. tons

Oceania 0.3 mill. tons

Bunge 4.6 mill. tons

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11

Rio Grande do Sul

West Bahia

Minas Gerais

São Paulo

Paraná

Mato Grosso

1,000 km ~60 USD/t

Significantly improved footprint in Brazil

Northeast

Bunge plant Yara plant Market size

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Bunge acquisition increases purchasing scale Potash purchases, China, India and Yara

5.3

2.8 1.9

3.9

1.8 1.0

1.1

0.6

China India Yara China India Yara

Bunge

Million tons, MOP equivalents

Source: Yara, International Fertilizer Industry Association

2012 First half 2013

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13 Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA)

3,251

6,587

2,486 2,992

4,281

3,455

5,444 4,982

4,310

4,966

4,103 3,591

4,129 3,995

3,307

2010 2012 2011 2013

NOK millions 15,315 18,163 16,970 11,432

Annual

EBITDA excluding special items

NOK millions

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EBITDA development

EBITDA 3Q13

3,307

Currency

79

Other

269

Gas & oil costs in Europe

145

Special items

1

Price/margin

924

Volume

174

EBITDA 3Q12

4,103

NOK millions

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Strong earnings in Downstream and Industrial

766

1,094

239 291

3,077

1,799

Downstream Industrial Upstream

EBITDA excluding special items

3Q12 3Q13

NOK millions

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Net income from equity-accounted investees

-78

GrowHow UK

73

132

Tringen

14

Lifeco

16

85

Qafco

130

412

33 20

Other

3Q13 3Q12

NOK millions

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1,336 1,305

1,094 1,032

706

1,380

988 1,111

216 258

3Q12 3Q13 3Q12 3Q13 3Q12 3Q13 3Q12 3Q13 3Q12 3Q13

Yara-produced deliveries Joint venture & third party sourced Total

Increased fertilizer deliveries

Nitrate NPK compounds NPK blends Urea UAN

Kilotons

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1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

Kilotons Finished fertilizer

Other NPK Nitrates Urea Bunge

Yara stocks, including Bunge Brazil from 3Q

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Value above

ammonia

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13

USD/t Nitrogen upgrading margins

Urea CFR CAN (46% N) NH3 CFR (46% N)

Nitrate premium above urea

Yara EU gas cost *20

Value above gas

Farmer yield benefits justify nitrate premium

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13

Nitrate premium, USD/t CAN

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20

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13

USD/t Phosphate upgrading margins

DAP, fob USG

Rock, fob NA *1.4

Value above raw material

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13

USD/t NPK blend premium

NPK T17, del France

NH3, fob Black Sea *0.22

DAP, fob Morocco

MOP, cfr NWE

Urea, fob Black sea

Stable NPK premiums

Margin above blend cost

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21

Strong cash generation

Net operating

capital change

626

Dividends from equity accounted investees

702

Cash earnings**

2,309

Net debt Jun 13*

741

Yara Dividend

229

Other investments

net

Net debt Sep 13*

3,519

Other

360

FX loss

70

1,117

Funding Yara

Pilbara Nitrates

Acquisition of Bunge

331

4,295

732

Yara Share buy backs / redemption of shares

* Included in net interest-bearing debt are external bank time deposits (4-12 months), this is part of other current assets in balance sheet ** Operating income plus depreciation and amortization, minus tax paid, net gain/loss on disposals, net interest expense and bank charges

NOK millions

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22

Continued strong farm economics support fertilizer demand

Marginal urea profitability in China; Chinese coal price and export tax regime are key for global urea pricing going forward

Capacity outside China: limited greenfield additions next 2-3 years apart from Algeria

Limited pipeline stocks in Europe; improved Yara nitrate deliveries following North African urea price increases and new Yara nitrate prices

Potash and phosphate market volatility has limited impact on compound NPK deliveries

Prospects

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23 Potential joint investment in world-scale ammonia plant on US Gulf coast

Attractive long-term partnership: – BASF has strong existing presence in the United States and ammonia

sourcing requirement for US downstream activities, investment would further strengthen backward integration

– Yara has a strong global ammonia production and trade network, investment would further strengthen this position, and increase its North American upstream presence

US Gulf location advantageous due to existing industry infrastructure, construction resources and natural gas

Location, capacity and other project parameters currently under discussion

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Additional information

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25

5,256 5,179

4,763

6,104 6,284

6,017

4,742

3,496

4,882 5,210 5,216

4,791

5,129

4,759

5,474

4,914

5,296

4,970 4,834

4,239

5,438 5,253

5,013 5,045 5,299

6,343

5,884

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Europe Outside Europe Total

Fertilizer volumes

Kilotons

2010 2007 2008 2009 2011 2012 2013

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26

Yara 3Q fertilizer sales by market and product 2013: 5.9 million tons (2012: 5.0 million tons)

2,270

1,497

469 461 316

2,138 2,377

544 573 252

Europe Latin America Asia North America Africa

3Q12 3Q13

1,094 706

1,336 988

449 216 225

1,032 1,380 1,305

1,111

569 258 229

NPK compounds NPK blends Nitrate Urea Other products UAN CN

Kilotons

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27

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

3Q09 3Q10 3Q11 3Q12 3Q13

NPK and nitrate deliveries

Kilotons

500

700

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

1,700

3Q09 3Q10 3Q11 3Q12 3Q13

Yara-produced nitrate deliveries

Kilotons

Yara-produced NPK deliveries

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NOK millions Total Yara contribution

Value-added upgrading and distribution make up larger part of Yara’s contribution

3,000

4,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

5,000

2,000

1,000

0

Industrial upgrade & distribution Trade

2Q13 1Q13 4Q12 3Q12 2Q12 1Q10 4Q11 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 1Q12 2Q11 3Q11

Commodity Europe

Commodity overseas

Fertilizer upgrade & distribution

3Q13

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0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Index June 2007=1

13/14 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13

Source: Fertilizers Europe

European producer nitrate stocks

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0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000Kilotons

Urea Nitrates NPK CN UAN SSP - based fertilizer

2012 2009 2010 2011 2013

Yara production volume*

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500Kilotons

2013

* Including share of equity-accounted investees

Finished fertilizer and industrial products Ammonia

2012 2009 2010 2011

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4.8 5.7

7.6 8.3

8.3 8.6 7.9 7.7 8.1 8.3 8.3 8.5

7.5 7.9 8.3 6.6

7.6

10.1 11.1 10.9 10.8 11.0 11.0 10.8

11.4 11.5 11.9 10.8

11.3 11.8

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2009 2010 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14

US gas price (Henry Hub) Yara Global Zeebrugge day ahead Yara Europe

Gas & oil cost

USD per MMBtu

Source: Yara, World Bank, Platts

Yearly averages 2009 – 2010, quarterly averages for 2011-13 with forward prices* for 4Q13 and 1Q14

*Dotted lines denote forward prices as of 8 October 2013

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Yara European gas cost closer to hub price

Spread between Yara and Zeebrugge

Source: Yara, World Bank, Platts *Dotted lines denote forward prices as of 8 October 2013

1.7

2.1

1.4

1.1

0.9 0.8

0.9 0.9

2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14

USD/ MMBtu

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

12.0

13.0

2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14

USD/ MMBtu

Zeebrugge (1-month lag) Yara Europe

European energy cost

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0.75

0.49

0.20

0.07

-0.04

0.63

0.38

0.22

0.08

0.01

0.57

0.32

0.12 0.06 0.06

0.56

0.27

0.12

0.02

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Debt/equity ratio

Net interest-bearing debt / equity ratio (end of period)

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Currency exposure affecting P&L

At the beginning of the fourth quarter 2013

1. The US dollar debt generating p&l exposure was USD 1,100 million • Kept as hedge of future earnings and to finance inventories in emerging markets

• Around 50% towards EUR and NOK, the rest towards emerging market currencies (mainly BRL)

• The debt level in emerging markets will fluctuate with fertilizer seasons

2. Additional p&l exposure came from internal currency positions vs. NOK • Payables mainly EUR (460 million) and CAD (500 million)

• Receivables mainly GBP (55 million) and AUD (40 million)

• The effects of these positions correspond to offsetting translation effects in equity and the net economic effect for Yara is neutral

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1,950

2,000

2,050

2,100

2,150

2,200

2,250

2,300

2,350

2,400

2,450

2,500

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13E 14F

Million tons

Consumption Production

Source: USDA, September 2013

Grain consumption and production Days of consumption in stocks

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13E 14F

Days

Continued strong price incentives necessary to match consumption growth

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11.8

1.0 10.7

9.4 2.8

12.2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Pro

duct

ion

Exp

ort

Dom

estic

Dom

estic

Exp

ort

Pro

duct

ion

Million tons

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Million tons

13/14

Source: BOABC, CFMW

12/13

Chinese urea production and export balance

Chinese urea production Domestic urea balance

Jul-Aug 12/13 Jul-Aug 13/14

-12.0% 11/12

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Chinese urea export increase

Chinese urea exports, Kilotons

Source: BOABC

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13

Urea price, USD/t

Chinese urea exports Urea, fob Yuzhny

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Source: Fertecon urea update August 2013 (February update in brackets). Consumption data source is IFA.

Year Driving regions Urea capacity growth relative to nitrogen capacity

Excluding China Excluding China

2013 Qatar 19% Algeria 17% 1.4% (2.5%)

2014 Iran 23%

India 21% 1.8% (1.8%)

2015 Algeria 25%

Iran 13% 3.5% (2.2%)

2016 USA 32%

Indonesia 14% 3.2%

2017 USA 31% Iraq 30%

1.5%

Gross annual addition 2013-2017 ~2.3%

Assumed annual closures ~0.5%

Net annual addition 2011-2015 ~1.8%

Trend consumption growth from 2002 2.1%

Projected nitrogen capacity additions outside China in line with historical consumption growth

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-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13

Thousand contracts

Source: US Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Non-commercials’ net long position in corn

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Key value drivers – quarterly averages

383 385 400 342

308

3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13

Urea prilled fob Black Sea (USD/t)

314 343 351

322 294

3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13

CAN cif Germany (USD/t)

2.9 3.4 3.5

4.0 3.6

3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13

US gas price Henry Hub (USD/MMBtu)

9.1 10.3

11.1 10.3 10.1

3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13

Zeebrugge day ahead (USD/MMBtu)

5.5

5.7 5.6

5.8

6.0

3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13

NOK/USD exchange rate

619 627 562

500 430

3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13

Ammonia fob Black Sea (USD/t)

Source: Fertilizer Market Publications, CERA, World Bank, Norges Bank

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IR-Date: 2013-10-18

41

10-year fertilizer prices – monthly averages

Source: Average of international publications

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

USD/t Ammonia fob Black Sea

0

100

200

300

400

500

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

USD/t CAN cif Germany

0

200

400

600

800

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

USD/t Urea prilled fob Black Sea

Average prices 2003 - 2013

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

USD/t DAP fob US Gulf