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IR-Date: 2013-10-18
0
18 October 2013
Yara International ASA Third Quarter results 2013
IR-Date: 2013-10-18
1
Strong results despite weaker commodity fertilizer markets
17% increase in deliveries including Brazil acquisition Robust value-added premiums Stable NPK deliveries outside Europe
Strong Industrial deliveries, especially NOX abatement
Summary third quarter
IR-Date: 2013-10-18
2
5.27
12.86
6.68 5.42
10.02
7.73
12.42 11.84
10.54 9.82
9.25
7.67 8.04
6.68
5.65
Earnings per share*
* Average number of shares for 3Q 2013: 277.6 million (3Q 2012: 281.4 million).
NOK 30.23 41.99 37.31 20.38
Annual 2010 2011 2012
EPS excluding currency and special items
2013
IR-Date: 2013-10-18
3
Solid farm economics support fertilizer demand, despite lower grain prices
Increased exports from China led to supply-driven urea pricing
Western Europe nitrogen fertilizer industry deliveries 9% lower
Phosphate and potash markets impacted by reduced consumption in India, but compound NPK markets running well globally
Strong demand for value-added fertilizer products, including nitrates and NPKs
Fertilizer market development
IR-Date: 2013-10-18
4
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1/2004 1/2005 1/2006 1/2007 1/2008 1/2009 1/2010 1/2011 1/2012 1/2013
Index
FAO price index
Cereals Price Index Cereals 5 year avg. Food Price Index Food 5 year avg.
Solid farm economics support fertilizer demand
Source: FAO
IR-Date: 2013-10-18
5
Strong global urea demand, but increased export availability from China
40.3
+6.4
12/13 11/12
33.9
10/11
36.9
09/10
31.4
08/09
27.8
Global urea trade Chinese urea exports
251 350 448 378 389
xxx Average urea price, fob Black Sea
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1 800 450
1 400
1 200
1 000
800
600
400
200
0
400 1 600
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
Chinese exports Urea price
USD/t Kilotons
IR-Date: 2013-10-18
6
Cautious start to season in Europe and US
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3Q08 3Q09 3Q10 3Q11 3Q12 3Q13
Domestic Imports
Source: Yara estimate for fertilizer deliveries to selected West European countries. US nitrogen deliveries based on TFI, US Trade Commission, Blue-Johnson and Yara estimates*
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
3Q08 3Q09 3Q10 3Q11 3Q12 3Q13
Production Net imports
Western Europe USA*
-17%*
-9%
Million tons Million tons
*July only, due to non-availability of more recent US trade data
IR-Date: 2013-10-18
7
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
3Q09 3Q10 3Q11 3Q12 3Q13
CAGR 18%
Long-term growth in NPK deliveries outside Europe; stable year-over-year development
Kilotons Yara-produced NPK deliveries
Overseas Europe
198
64 73 76
15
237
86 68 72
18
271
95
64 54
14
Asia Brazil LatinAmerica excl.
Brazil
Africa NorthAmerica
Overseas Yara-produced NPK deliveries Kilotons
3Q13 3Q12 3Q11
IR-Date: 2013-10-18
8
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000Kilotons
2012 2011 2013
Record production
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
1,900
2,000Kilotons
* Including share of equity-accounted investees
Finished fertilizer Ammonia
2012 2011 2013
IR-Date: 2013-10-18
9 Bunge acquisition completed and integration underway
Bunge Fertilizantes
Yara Brasil
Sales volume 2012 (mt) 4.6 3.3
Revenues 2012 (USD billions) 2.6 1.8
Employees ~1,300 ~1,300
SSP production units 2 1
Blending units 22 11
Own sales force ~100 ~80
Sales representatives ~500 ~300
IR-Date: 2013-10-18
10 Bunge acquisition improves geographical balance 2012 Fertilizer deliveries, Yara and Bunge Brazil
Africa 1.2 mill. tons
Europe 9.6 mill. tons
Asia 1.9 mill. tons
North America 3.0 mill. tons
Latin America 4.7 mill. tons
Oceania 0.3 mill. tons
Bunge 4.6 mill. tons
IR-Date: 2013-10-18
11
Rio Grande do Sul
West Bahia
Minas Gerais
São Paulo
Paraná
Mato Grosso
1,000 km ~60 USD/t
Significantly improved footprint in Brazil
Northeast
Bunge plant Yara plant Market size
IR-Date: 2013-10-18
12
Bunge acquisition increases purchasing scale Potash purchases, China, India and Yara
5.3
2.8 1.9
3.9
1.8 1.0
1.1
0.6
China India Yara China India Yara
Bunge
Million tons, MOP equivalents
Source: Yara, International Fertilizer Industry Association
2012 First half 2013
IR-Date: 2013-10-18
13 Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA)
3,251
6,587
2,486 2,992
4,281
3,455
5,444 4,982
4,310
4,966
4,103 3,591
4,129 3,995
3,307
2010 2012 2011 2013
NOK millions 15,315 18,163 16,970 11,432
Annual
EBITDA excluding special items
NOK millions
IR-Date: 2013-10-18
14
EBITDA development
EBITDA 3Q13
3,307
Currency
79
Other
269
Gas & oil costs in Europe
145
Special items
1
Price/margin
924
Volume
174
EBITDA 3Q12
4,103
NOK millions
IR-Date: 2013-10-18
15
Strong earnings in Downstream and Industrial
766
1,094
239 291
3,077
1,799
Downstream Industrial Upstream
EBITDA excluding special items
3Q12 3Q13
NOK millions
IR-Date: 2013-10-18
16
Net income from equity-accounted investees
-78
GrowHow UK
73
132
Tringen
14
Lifeco
16
85
Qafco
130
412
33 20
Other
3Q13 3Q12
NOK millions
IR-Date: 2013-10-18
17
1,336 1,305
1,094 1,032
706
1,380
988 1,111
216 258
3Q12 3Q13 3Q12 3Q13 3Q12 3Q13 3Q12 3Q13 3Q12 3Q13
Yara-produced deliveries Joint venture & third party sourced Total
Increased fertilizer deliveries
Nitrate NPK compounds NPK blends Urea UAN
Kilotons
IR-Date: 2013-10-18
18
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
Kilotons Finished fertilizer
Other NPK Nitrates Urea Bunge
Yara stocks, including Bunge Brazil from 3Q
IR-Date: 2013-10-18
19
Value above
ammonia
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13
USD/t Nitrogen upgrading margins
Urea CFR CAN (46% N) NH3 CFR (46% N)
Nitrate premium above urea
Yara EU gas cost *20
Value above gas
Farmer yield benefits justify nitrate premium
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13
Nitrate premium, USD/t CAN
IR-Date: 2013-10-18
20
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13
USD/t Phosphate upgrading margins
DAP, fob USG
Rock, fob NA *1.4
Value above raw material
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13
USD/t NPK blend premium
NPK T17, del France
NH3, fob Black Sea *0.22
DAP, fob Morocco
MOP, cfr NWE
Urea, fob Black sea
Stable NPK premiums
Margin above blend cost
IR-Date: 2013-10-18
21
Strong cash generation
Net operating
capital change
626
Dividends from equity accounted investees
702
Cash earnings**
2,309
Net debt Jun 13*
741
Yara Dividend
229
Other investments
net
Net debt Sep 13*
3,519
Other
360
FX loss
70
1,117
Funding Yara
Pilbara Nitrates
Acquisition of Bunge
331
4,295
732
Yara Share buy backs / redemption of shares
* Included in net interest-bearing debt are external bank time deposits (4-12 months), this is part of other current assets in balance sheet ** Operating income plus depreciation and amortization, minus tax paid, net gain/loss on disposals, net interest expense and bank charges
NOK millions
IR-Date: 2013-10-18
22
Continued strong farm economics support fertilizer demand
Marginal urea profitability in China; Chinese coal price and export tax regime are key for global urea pricing going forward
Capacity outside China: limited greenfield additions next 2-3 years apart from Algeria
Limited pipeline stocks in Europe; improved Yara nitrate deliveries following North African urea price increases and new Yara nitrate prices
Potash and phosphate market volatility has limited impact on compound NPK deliveries
Prospects
IR-Date: 2013-10-18
23 Potential joint investment in world-scale ammonia plant on US Gulf coast
Attractive long-term partnership: – BASF has strong existing presence in the United States and ammonia
sourcing requirement for US downstream activities, investment would further strengthen backward integration
– Yara has a strong global ammonia production and trade network, investment would further strengthen this position, and increase its North American upstream presence
US Gulf location advantageous due to existing industry infrastructure, construction resources and natural gas
Location, capacity and other project parameters currently under discussion
IR-Date: 2013-10-18
24
Additional information
IR-Date: 2013-10-18
25
5,256 5,179
4,763
6,104 6,284
6,017
4,742
3,496
4,882 5,210 5,216
4,791
5,129
4,759
5,474
4,914
5,296
4,970 4,834
4,239
5,438 5,253
5,013 5,045 5,299
6,343
5,884
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Europe Outside Europe Total
Fertilizer volumes
Kilotons
2010 2007 2008 2009 2011 2012 2013
IR-Date: 2013-10-18
26
Yara 3Q fertilizer sales by market and product 2013: 5.9 million tons (2012: 5.0 million tons)
2,270
1,497
469 461 316
2,138 2,377
544 573 252
Europe Latin America Asia North America Africa
3Q12 3Q13
1,094 706
1,336 988
449 216 225
1,032 1,380 1,305
1,111
569 258 229
NPK compounds NPK blends Nitrate Urea Other products UAN CN
Kilotons
IR-Date: 2013-10-18
27
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
3Q09 3Q10 3Q11 3Q12 3Q13
NPK and nitrate deliveries
Kilotons
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
1,500
1,700
3Q09 3Q10 3Q11 3Q12 3Q13
Yara-produced nitrate deliveries
Kilotons
Yara-produced NPK deliveries
IR-Date: 2013-10-18
28
NOK millions Total Yara contribution
Value-added upgrading and distribution make up larger part of Yara’s contribution
3,000
4,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
5,000
2,000
1,000
0
Industrial upgrade & distribution Trade
2Q13 1Q13 4Q12 3Q12 2Q12 1Q10 4Q11 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 1Q12 2Q11 3Q11
Commodity Europe
Commodity overseas
Fertilizer upgrade & distribution
3Q13
IR-Date: 2013-10-18
29
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Index June 2007=1
13/14 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13
Source: Fertilizers Europe
European producer nitrate stocks
IR-Date: 2013-10-18
30
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000Kilotons
Urea Nitrates NPK CN UAN SSP - based fertilizer
2012 2009 2010 2011 2013
Yara production volume*
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500Kilotons
2013
* Including share of equity-accounted investees
Finished fertilizer and industrial products Ammonia
2012 2009 2010 2011
IR-Date: 2013-10-18
31
4.8 5.7
7.6 8.3
8.3 8.6 7.9 7.7 8.1 8.3 8.3 8.5
7.5 7.9 8.3 6.6
7.6
10.1 11.1 10.9 10.8 11.0 11.0 10.8
11.4 11.5 11.9 10.8
11.3 11.8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2009 2010 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14
US gas price (Henry Hub) Yara Global Zeebrugge day ahead Yara Europe
Gas & oil cost
USD per MMBtu
Source: Yara, World Bank, Platts
Yearly averages 2009 – 2010, quarterly averages for 2011-13 with forward prices* for 4Q13 and 1Q14
*Dotted lines denote forward prices as of 8 October 2013
IR-Date: 2013-10-18
32
Yara European gas cost closer to hub price
Spread between Yara and Zeebrugge
Source: Yara, World Bank, Platts *Dotted lines denote forward prices as of 8 October 2013
1.7
2.1
1.4
1.1
0.9 0.8
0.9 0.9
2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14
USD/ MMBtu
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14
USD/ MMBtu
Zeebrugge (1-month lag) Yara Europe
European energy cost
IR-Date: 2013-10-18
33
0.75
0.49
0.20
0.07
-0.04
0.63
0.38
0.22
0.08
0.01
0.57
0.32
0.12 0.06 0.06
0.56
0.27
0.12
0.02
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Debt/equity ratio
Net interest-bearing debt / equity ratio (end of period)
IR-Date: 2013-10-18
34
Currency exposure affecting P&L
At the beginning of the fourth quarter 2013
1. The US dollar debt generating p&l exposure was USD 1,100 million • Kept as hedge of future earnings and to finance inventories in emerging markets
• Around 50% towards EUR and NOK, the rest towards emerging market currencies (mainly BRL)
• The debt level in emerging markets will fluctuate with fertilizer seasons
2. Additional p&l exposure came from internal currency positions vs. NOK • Payables mainly EUR (460 million) and CAD (500 million)
• Receivables mainly GBP (55 million) and AUD (40 million)
• The effects of these positions correspond to offsetting translation effects in equity and the net economic effect for Yara is neutral
IR-Date: 2013-10-18
35
1,950
2,000
2,050
2,100
2,150
2,200
2,250
2,300
2,350
2,400
2,450
2,500
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13E 14F
Million tons
Consumption Production
Source: USDA, September 2013
Grain consumption and production Days of consumption in stocks
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13E 14F
Days
Continued strong price incentives necessary to match consumption growth
IR-Date: 2013-10-18
36
11.8
1.0 10.7
9.4 2.8
12.2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Pro
duct
ion
Exp
ort
Dom
estic
Dom
estic
Exp
ort
Pro
duct
ion
Million tons
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Million tons
13/14
Source: BOABC, CFMW
12/13
Chinese urea production and export balance
Chinese urea production Domestic urea balance
Jul-Aug 12/13 Jul-Aug 13/14
-12.0% 11/12
IR-Date: 2013-10-18
37
Chinese urea export increase
Chinese urea exports, Kilotons
Source: BOABC
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13
Urea price, USD/t
Chinese urea exports Urea, fob Yuzhny
IR-Date: 2013-10-18
38
Source: Fertecon urea update August 2013 (February update in brackets). Consumption data source is IFA.
Year Driving regions Urea capacity growth relative to nitrogen capacity
Excluding China Excluding China
2013 Qatar 19% Algeria 17% 1.4% (2.5%)
2014 Iran 23%
India 21% 1.8% (1.8%)
2015 Algeria 25%
Iran 13% 3.5% (2.2%)
2016 USA 32%
Indonesia 14% 3.2%
2017 USA 31% Iraq 30%
1.5%
Gross annual addition 2013-2017 ~2.3%
Assumed annual closures ~0.5%
Net annual addition 2011-2015 ~1.8%
Trend consumption growth from 2002 2.1%
Projected nitrogen capacity additions outside China in line with historical consumption growth
IR-Date: 2013-10-18
39
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13
Thousand contracts
Source: US Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Non-commercials’ net long position in corn
IR-Date: 2013-10-18
40
Key value drivers – quarterly averages
383 385 400 342
308
3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13
Urea prilled fob Black Sea (USD/t)
314 343 351
322 294
3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13
CAN cif Germany (USD/t)
2.9 3.4 3.5
4.0 3.6
3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13
US gas price Henry Hub (USD/MMBtu)
9.1 10.3
11.1 10.3 10.1
3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13
Zeebrugge day ahead (USD/MMBtu)
5.5
5.7 5.6
5.8
6.0
3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13
NOK/USD exchange rate
619 627 562
500 430
3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13
Ammonia fob Black Sea (USD/t)
Source: Fertilizer Market Publications, CERA, World Bank, Norges Bank
IR-Date: 2013-10-18
41
10-year fertilizer prices – monthly averages
Source: Average of international publications
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
USD/t Ammonia fob Black Sea
0
100
200
300
400
500
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
USD/t CAN cif Germany
0
200
400
600
800
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
USD/t Urea prilled fob Black Sea
Average prices 2003 - 2013
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
USD/t DAP fob US Gulf