Yacob Mulugetta

Centre for Environmental Strategy & Research Group on Lifestyles, Values and Environment (RESOLVE)

University of Surrey, UK

Lustrumsymposium Sustainable Solutions: Focus on Africa1-2 November,

Deflt University of Technology

The Future of Sustainable Energy in Africa

Outline

• Sustainability - Energy Context

• The African energy picture

• What is the desirable future?

• Supply side possibilities

• Demand side interventions

• Enabling mechanisms

Social & economicwellbeing

Environmental protection

Energy security

Reliable and affordable energy

supplies are essential for

economic development

Energy security is enhanced when

indigenous energy or increased energy efficiency reduces

dependence on imported energy

Enhanced economic activity increases environmental

impacts; both local and global. The quality of indigenous

energy also determines the type and intensity of pollution

Sustainable energy context

The African energy picture

World energy demand by Region

Source: IEA; WEO

African Energy Sector – 3 distinct regions

Energy consumption - Sub-Saharan Africa

Electricity3%

Biomass81%

Petroleum15%

Gas1% Coal

0%Energy Consumption - South Africa

Biomass16%

Coal27%

Coal-based Electricity

26%

Gas2%

Petroleum29%

Energy Consumption - North Africa

Petroleum62%

Biomass4%

Coal1%

Gas18%

Electricity15%

AFREPREN

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

South

Afri

ca

Gabon

Nigeria

Zimba

bwe

Angola

Kenya

Sudan

Camer

oon

Tanza

nia

Moz

ambiq

ue

Côte

d’Ivo

ire

Ghana

DR Con

go

Ethiop

ia

Seneg

al

Zambia

Benin

Togo

Congo

Namibi

a

Biomass

Hydro

Nuclear fuels

Gaseous fuels

Liquid fuels

Coal

World average

Annual per capita energy consumption by source(GJ per person - 1999)

Source: WRI: (2003). "EarthTrends: The Environmental Information Portal." 2003(January 15, 2003). http://earthtrends.wri.org/index.cfm.

Even countries with major endowments of petroleum rely heavily on biomass.

Equivalent to burning just over 1 lb. of wood every day for a year

HDI vs. Energy Consumption

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000

Commercial Energy Consumption, per capita (kgoe, 2000)

Hu

man

Dev

elo

pm

ent

Ind

ex (

2002

)

HDI vs. Energy Consuption

Logarithmic Curve Fit

Household fuel transition: fuel - income

IEA, 2002

Energy-Poverty Linkages: Micro Level

Unreliable Electricity supply

No access tomodern fuels

No access tomodern fuels

No access toElectricity

Firms need back-up generators

Small enterprisescannot afford it

Low growth & employment

Women spend up to 3 hours/daygathering fuel

Productive time and labour sink

High indoorpollution

High rate of child mortality

Less time to study

Reduced access to education

•Systemic Disadvantage

•Denial of Capability

EnterpriseProductivity

HouseholdProductivity

HealthImpacts

Effects on Education

The Reality from Elsewhere

Nearly 1 billion people; generate 4% of global electricity; ¾ of that used by South Africa & countries in North Africa

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 20 40 60 80 100

Norway (0.19)USA (0.37)El Salvador (0.60)Thailand (0.61)Kenya (0.87)

Cu

mu

lativ

e E

lect

rici

ty C

on

sum

ptio

n (%

)

Cumulative Population (%)

The Energy Gini

Jacobson & Kammen, 2005

6. Local Rural Energy Needs Access to electricity – bottom 40% (mainly rural)

1st Quintile - Poorest Population

0%5%

0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%6%

0% 0% 0% 0%0%

10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%C

am

ero

on

Co

ted

'ivo

re

Eth

iop

ia

Gh

an

a

Ke

nya

Na

mib

ia

Nig

eri

a

Se

ne

ga

l

So

uth

Afr

ica

Ta

nza

nia

Ug

an

da

Za

mb

ia

Zim

ba

bw

e

2nd Quintile - 2nd Poorest Population

8%

35%

0% 0% 0% 2%15%

1%

33%

0% 0% 0% 0%0%

10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Ca

me

roo

n

Co

ted

'ivo

re

Eth

iop

ia

Gh

an

a

Ke

nya

Na

mib

ia

Nig

eri

a

Se

ne

ga

l

So

uth

Afr

ica

Ta

nza

nia

Ug

an

da

Za

mb

ia

Zim

ba

bw

e

Source: Estache, 2005

Guinea's G'bessi Airport, ConakryBetween 1999 and 2002, schools in Guinea had a modest pass rate of 30-35%. Since 2003, that has dropped to between 20 and 25%. BBC

Summary: the energy picture in Africa

• 39 countries – Oil importers– Lion’s share of export earnings (25-60%)

• Low access to electricity – (as low as 2% in rural areas) and modern fuels

• Heavy reliance on biomass

• Low technical resources at all levels

• Income is an important enabler and disabler

Wherever I have traveled, when men have neither coal nor wood nor turf, they live in miserable hovels and

have nothing comfortable about them. But when they have an adequate supply of fuel and the wit to use it

wisely they are well supplied with necessaries and live comfortable lives

Benjamin Franklin circa 1780

The desirable future?

The desirable future?

• Achievement of MDGs & beyond

• Increase per capita energy consumption

• Clean energy for local & global environment

• Increase the use of local resources & renewables

• Technologies & resources• Towards Productive

uses/income

Paradoxically!!!

• Population will double by 2030• More people living in urban

areas• More people seek access to

modern energy services• 1/10,000 engineer or scientist• 30,000 PhDs outside Africa• S&T funding less than 1%

GDP UNEP, 2004

Targets agreed by African Ministers for 2015

FEMA ECOWAS EAC CEMAC

Modern energy for cooking 50% 100% 50% 80%

Modern energy services/ electricity for basic needs in urban and peri-urban areas

75% 100% 100% 50%

Electricity for rural households

36% 35%

Electricity for schools, clinics and community centres

75% 60% 100% 56%

Mechanical power for productive uses in rural areas

100% 60% 100%

World Bank investment estimate for 100% access to electricity by 2030 - $11 billion/yearWorld Bank investment estimate for 48% access to electricity by 2030 - $4 billion/year

WB/ECOWAS estimate for all energy services by 2030 – approaches $15 billion/year

Supply side possibilities

Supply side possibilities

• Conventional systems– 70% oil exported– Most associated gas flared (71%)

• Can be converted to power using combined power cycles and generate enough to satisfy current West African needs

• Processing can be expensive: construction and operation of gas collecting system; transport to treatment plant; remove LPG, and transfer through high pressure pipeline to intended consumers.

• Strong legislation will help enormously

– Geothermal potential is huge in some parts• Already 10% of Kenya’s electricity comes from Geothermal

– Conventional systems will continue to be important, especially in the industrial and urban areas.

Supply side possibilities

• Renewables

– Solar PV and water heating– Biomass – combustion/

gasification/Cogeneration– Charcoal– Small hydro– Wind– Biofuels (large/small scale)

Solar PV

• Interesting example of PV in Kenya– Kenya – 200,000 households– Private sector driven– Superseded official rural electrification

programme– Still issues related to quality control– Largely bought by relatively wealthy– Mobile phone charging

Cogeneration

• Cogeneration CHP in Mauritius

• Successful in sale of power to the grid

• Accounts for close to 40% of a 725MW national generation capacity

• Excellent government incentives

• Potential elsewhere in Africa

Country Installed national power generation capacity from all sources, 2004 (MW)

Cogen potential using high pressure systems (MW)

Cogen potential as percentage of total installed national power generation – capacity from all sources (%)

Ethiopia 726 30.9 4.30%Kenya 1143 159.2 13.90%Malawi 238 56.5 23.70%Sudan 755 156.9 20.80%Swaziland 128 185 144.50%

Tanzania 881 97.8 11.10%Uganda 303 46 15.20%Total 4174 732.4 17.50%

Afrepren

Charcoal• Preferred by urban consumers

– 82% of urban households use charcoal

– Avg. annual consumption ~150 kg/per person

– High calorific value, Requires less attention to cook, Emits less smoke, More economical to transport, Purchased in small (daily) quantities

• Little attempt across the continent in sustainable woodfuel harvest

• Invest in charcoal production and stove research, and technology transfer (Brazil, Thailand..)

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0 2000 4000 6000 8000

Average Daily Exposure to SPM (g / m3)P

rob

abili

ty (

AR

I)

Charcoal

Ceramic Wood Stoves3-Stone Fire

For subjects between 5 and 50

200

400

600

800

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Year

BAU C

F RC

RF

Estimated deaths (x 103) from child LRI and adult female COPD

LRI: Lower respiratory illness

COPD: Chronic obstructivepulmonary disease

The macro health effects of transitions to ….

Global warming impact (GWI) from production and end-use of common household cooking fuels

50

100

150

200

250

Bertschi et al. Bertschi et al. Smith et. al.; Pennise

LPG KeroseneFirewood

(sub-Saharan Africa)Traditional kiln

(Brazil)Improved kiln

GREET model/Pennise

Charcoal

g-C

as

CO

2 p

er M

J us

eful

ene

rgy

deliv

ered

(10

0-yr

GW

P)

End-use - unsustainable biomassProduction - unsustainable biomass

Production - fossil fuelsEnd-use - fossil fuelsEnd-use - sustainable biomass

Production - sustainable biomass

Source

Location

Fuel

(sub-Saharan Africa) (US) (US)

Adapted from Bailis, Ezzati & Kammen, ES&T (2003)

Residential fuel use in Africa2000-2050

Bailis, Ezzati & Kammen, Science (2005)

Cumulative GHG emissions (2000-2050)

Bailis, Ezzati & Kammen, Science (2005)

Rising energy prices have made charcoal the most economical cooking option

Data Source: Hosier, R.H. and W. Kipondya, Urban household energy use in Tanzania. Energy Policy, 1993. May: p. 454-473. (1990); Rebecca Ghanadan, PhD Candidate, Energy and Resources Group, University of California Berkeley (2004)

Monthly Cooking Cost: Dar es Salaam, Tanzania: 1990

lowest cost option (1990)

19901990

1990

1990

1990

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

Charcoal (improved)

Charcoal(unimproved)

Electricity

LPG Kerosene

Mon

thly

Coo

king

Cos

t(1

994

TS

h/m

onth

)

and 2004

lowest cost option (2004)

2004

20042004

2004

2004

Biofuels - biodiesel

• Well proven at small scale but still much uncertainty about large scale trials being initiated in various countries– At large scale, requires significant applied R&D to

establishment of new agricultural system

• High costs associated with technology transfer & adaptation

• Possible competition for land between biodiesel feedstock and food crops or land

• Environmental impacts not clear – Less important in small-scale initiative

Large-scaletechnologies mainly used bythe non-poor

Small-scaleTechnologies andRETs mainly used bythe poor

Large-scaletechnologies

Small-scaleTechnologies and RETs

Energy use in a typical eastern and southern African country

Energy investment in a typical eastern and southern African country

Ethiopia: 92% Primary energy

Ethiopia: 99.5% investment

Demand side interventions

Demand side interventions

• Improved cookstoves • Energy efficiency

– government, Eskom and Osram - 500 million energy-saving compact fluorescent light bulbs (CFLs) to households – reduce peak demand by 100 MW

• Smart design (better awareness about energy management) - Wahel

• Rural electrification – helps rural development– Social development goals– Retaining teachers and health practitioners

• Productive uses of energy• Investment in public transport

– Encourage cycling

Enabling mechanisms

Enabling mechanisms

• Policies – Guy de Maupassant analogy– Policy in crisis or a crisis of policy

• Recognising the importance of energy at sectoral levels - Cross-sectoral partnership

• R&D – centres of excellence and HE - endogenous• Raising the voice of the poor• Financing and technology transfer• Governance: NEPAD/Maputo Declaration/ FEMA • ‘Nicolai do something’:

– Partnership between actors and institutions

Thank You!