XXIV - facta.org.br

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World´s Poultry Congress 5 - 9 August - 2012 • Salvador - Bahia - Brazil

Area: Poultry Health and Biosecurity • August 09

XXIV

Economic future of the poultry industry: Concentration of production, saturation of

consumption, adding new customers through lower costs, mitigation of world hunger

Estimating the future requires knowledge of the past. And here are a few points that are relevant:

Professor borlaug and the green revolution have proved Malthus wrongFood production has surpassed world population

[email protected]

Table 1.

World food production – in 000 mt ∆%

1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2009 2010 1965/2010

Cereals 998.593 1.359.715 1.821.242 1.897.739 2.268.385 2.495.443 2.432.819 143,6%

Oilcrops 29.714 41.600 64.306 91.822 143.762 162.968 168.411 466,8%

Vegetables 228.790 289.695 404.734 570.694 894.108 1.013.014 965.751 322,1%

Roots & Tubs. 484.017 544.513 561.256 630.384 729.379 736.175 726.397 50,1%

Fruits 203.693 266.603 318.991 409.744 531.769 595.556 609.369 199,2%

Pulses 45.248 40.352 50.466 55.939 61.007 63.111 67.713 49,6%

Milk 364.812 424.586 512.044 540.163 648.005 701.966 720.980 97,6%

Meats 84.515 115.853 154.511 205.750 261.129 285.275 292.670 246,3%

Fish & Seafood 49.723 65.924 87.111 116.686 142.700 144.600 145.100 191,8%

Eggs 16.883 23.248 32.514 46.906 61.255 67.980 68.897 308,1%

World population 3.350.250 4.090.586 4.859.511 5.703.456 6.479.962 6.792.893 6.86.528 105,0%

Food availabilty - kg/person/year ∆%

1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2009 2010 1965/2010

Cereals 298,1 332,4 374,8 332,7 350,1 367,4 354,2 18,8%

Oilcrops 8,9 10,2 13,2 16,1 22,2 24,0 24,5 176,5%

Vegetables 68,3 70,8 83,3 100,1 138,0 149,1 140,6 105,9%

Roots & Tubs. 144,5 133,1 115,5 110,5 112,6 108,4 105,8 -26,8%

Fruits 60,8 65,2 65,6 71,8 82,1 87,7 88,7 45,9%

Pulses 13,5 9,9 10,4 9,8 9,4 9,3 9,9 -27,0%

Milk 108.9 103,8 105,4 94,7 100,0 103,3 105,0 -3,6%

Meats 25,2 28,3 31,8 36,1 40,3 42,0 42,6 68,9%

Fish & Seafood 14,8 16,1 17,9 20,5 22,o 21,3 21,1 42,3%

Eggs 5,0 5,7 6,7 8,2 9,5 10,0 10,0 99,1%

1Source: Elaborated by ODConsulting based on data from FAOSTAT (http://faostat.fao.org/site/291/default.aspx); Food Outlook by GIEWS-FAO (Global Information and Early Warning System http://www.fao.org/giews/english/index.htm);USCensus.gov/International Data Base/World Population (http://www.census.gov/population/international/data/idb/worldpoptotal.php) A Revolução da Pecuária - Quadro atualizado Jan2012.xlsx2Cereals: Barley; Buckwheat; Canary seed; Cereals nes; Fonio; Maize; Millet; Mixed grain; Oats; Quinoa; Rice, paddy; Rye; Sorghum; Triticale; Wheat.Oilcrops: Castor oil seed; Coconuts; Cottonseed; Groundnuts, with shell; Hempseed; Jojoba Seeds; Karite Nuts (Sheanuts); Linseed; Melonseed; Mustard seed; Oil palm fruit; Oilseeds, Nes; Olives; Palm kernels; Palm oil; Poppy seed; Rapeseed; Safflower seed; Seed cotton; Sesame seed; Soybeans; Sunflower seed; Tung Nuts.

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2 Area: Poultry Health and Biosecurity • August 09

World´s Poultry Congress 5 - 9 August - 2012 • Salvador - Bahia - BrazilXXIV increase in the examined period of 1965-2010 and the human diet has changed towards more animal

products intake in detriment of the basic staples, such as roots & tubers and pulses and even cereals.

Thad its world per capita availability down by 3,60% from 1965 to 2010. The same has happened with the most basic processed milk products, as we can observe on Table 2, where we see growth in whole milk dried and in cheeses of all kinds, while butter & ghee, skim milk & buttermilk dried and evaporated & condensed milk have had their production down in all Developed Countries. Moving towards more sophisticated item intake with the same family of products is another characteristic of human diet change as people’s income increases.

How is human diet evolving towards higher animal products intake

As income grows, human diet increases the intake of animal products. The latest available statistics on food supply (Quantity, Dietary Energy, Proteins, Fats, Totals and per Capita) are dated 20071.

Table 2.

World Production (tonnes)∆% 1965 to 2010

Per capita∆% 1965 to 2010

1965 2010 1965 2010

Milk whole dried 717.127 2.808.601 292% 2144 409 91,0%

Butter and Ghee 5.293.167 5.676.824 7% 1.580 826 -47,4%

Cheese (all kinds) 6.305.614 20.543.259 226% 1.882 2.991 58,9%

Evaporat & Condensed milk 3.980.265 4.515.361 13% 1.188 657 -44,7%

Skim milk & Buttermilk, Dry 2,288.840 3.364.400 47% 683 490 -28,3%

Source: FAOSTAT | © FAO Statistics Division 2012 | 30 January 2012

1 - Source: FAOSTAT/Food Supply/http://faostat.fao.org/site/345/default.aspx

Table 3.

Food supply - 2007 (kg/capita/day) Food supply - 2007

Animal products + (Total) 481.29 100,0% (kg/capita/year)

quantity (tonnes)

Meat + (Total) 217,77 45,2% 40,09 263.883.080

Milk - Excluding butter + (Total) 130,00 27,0% 84,93 558.983.381

Eggs + (Total) 33,50 7,0% 8,57 56.407.271

Fish, Seafood + (Total) 30,15% 6,3% 16,69 109.823.661

Other animal products 69,87 14,5%

Idem World Animal Products 2007 kcal, qtty, capita.xlsx

Vegetables&Melons: Artichokes; Asparagus; Beans, green; Cabbages and other brassicas; Carrots and turnips; Cassava leaves; Cauliflowers and broccoli; Chillies and peppers, green; Cucumbers and gherkins; Eggplants (aubergines); Garlic; Leeks, other alliaceous veg; Leguminous vegetables, nes; Lettuce and chicory; Maize, green; Mushrooms and truffles; Okra; Onions (inc. shallots), green; Onions, dry; Other melons (inc.cantaloupes); Peas, green; Pumpkins, squash and gourds; Spinach; String beans; Tomatoes; Vegetables fresh nes; WatermelonsRoots and Tubers: Cassava; Potatoes; Roots and Tubers, nes; Sweet potatoes; Taro (cocoyam); Yams; Yautia (cocoyam).Fruit excl Melons: Apples; Apricots; Avocados; Bananas; Berries Nes; Blueberries; Carobs; Cashewapple; Cherries; Citrus fruit nes; Cranberries; Currants; Dates; Figs; Fruit Fresh Nes; Fruit, tropical fresh nes; Gooseberries; Grapefruit (inc. pomelos); Grapes; Kiwi fruit; Lemons and limes; Mangoes, mangosteens, guavas; Oranges; Papayas; Peaches and nectarines; Pears; Persimmons; Pineapples; Plantains; Plums and sloes; Pome fruit, nes ; Quinces ; Raspberries ; Sour cherries ; Stone fruit, nes; Strawberries; Tangerines, mandarins, clem.Pulses: Bambara beans; Beans, dry; Broad beans, horse beans, dry; Chick peas; Cow peas, dry; Lentils; Lupins; Peas, dry; Pigeon peas; Pulses, nes; Vetches.Milk: Buffalo milk, whole, fresh; Camel milk, whole, fresh; Cow milk, whole, fresh; Goat milk, whole, fresh; Sheep milk, whole, fresh.Meat: Bird meat, nes; Buffalo meat; Camel meat; Cattle meat; Chicken meat; Duck meat; Game meat; Goat meat; Goose and guinea fowl meat; Horse meat; Meat nes; Meat of Asses; Meat of Mules; Meat of Other Rod; Meat Oth Camelids; Pig meat; Rabbit meat; Sheep meat; Snails, Not Sea; Turkey meat.Fish & Seafood: Capture fisheries; Aquaculture.Eggs: Hen eggs, in shell; Other bird eggs,in shell.

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XXIVIf we examine the average

dietary energy of the world population diet, we shall note that in 1961 of all kcal intake per capita 84,7% came from vegetal products. In 2007, this percentage declined to 82,8%.

When examining those animal products, we verify that meats contributed in 2007 with 45,2% of this dietary energy with increasing per capita quantities over the years, as previously seen on Table 1.

As income grows human diet changes. Scholars and researchers have established in different studies that until the human being reaches an income of US$ 7,00/day, all income increase is used to enhance the diet, and that normally means higher intake of animal products, mainly meats in detriment of vegetal products.

On Graph 3 we can see that all Developed Countries2 surpass a daily income of US$ 75/day, level when food expenses rarely exceed, if ever, 20% of households expenditure and that due to the fact that meals outside home are quite frequent and relevant. At this level, higher income will not affect the composition of one’s diet, except that people will be more prone to move from food categories to food concepts.

On the other hand, as per capita daily availability of US$ 3,35 or US$ 3,25, as in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa will make people less inquisitive if the food is GMO free, organic, green, etc. The main question resides in availability and accessibility. This does not represent criticism to consumer values or

2 - There is no established convention for the designation of “developed” and “developing” countries or areas in the United Nations system. In common practice, Japan in Asia, Canada and the United States in northern America, Australia and New Zealand in Oceania, and Europe are considered “developed” regions or areas. Source: United Nations Statistics Division

Graph 2Elaborated by ODConsulting based on data from FAOSTAT Food Supply. World Vegetal and Animal products 61-07.xlsx.

Graph 3Elaborated by ODConsulting with data from World Bank databank, representing 2010 GNI per capita, Atlas method (current US$).

Graph 4Elaborated by ODConsulting with data from FAOSTAT/Food Supply http://faostat.fao.org. Selected areas developedd and developing calories per day.xlsx.

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World´s Poultry Congress 5 - 9 August - 2012 • Salvador - Bahia - BrazilXXIV food perception among the top billion of the world population. Our aim is simply to highlight that there are differences among this former segment and that of the bottom billion, where priority resides in having what to eat rather than food concepts, perceptions or even misconceptions.

Graph 4 shows that the in 2007 Developed Countries food supply surpassed the 3000 kcal/capita daily intake. And most of these countries face nowadays obesity as one of their major health concerns. Japan is the exception due to cultural reasons and food habits. This graph also permits to note that most of Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia registers the lowest daily intake of calories. No wonder that these areas concentrated the majority of undernourished people in the world, as detailed on Graph 5.

This is not a libel against those that adopt new food values and that defend these value and production practices, in many times in a libelous form towards industrial agriculture. People are entitled to their opinions and choices, but food activism should consider that alternative production practices should be a choice and not an imposition. It is for our poultry industry to consider and praise those demands, transforming them into products that bring higher profits, as they are do when compared with industrially produced products.

It is simply to call the attention that we in the poultry industry still have a long way to go to diminish world undernourishment and the changes we forecast for future food intake. Science and technology are indispensable for the new green silent revolution that will permit the world to cope with

food demand to 2050. Science and technology should be guided by ethos and not limited by activism normally coming from the full-pockets and full-bellies areas of the world.

Of course income growth is not the only factor affecting human diet preferences or choices. Other myriad of factors – culture, tradition, religion, availability, environment, sensory, food ideology, social factors, habits, etc – are determinant in food choice, but what we have constated for the last 30 years is that in most developing countries, income increases almost always represents meat consumption increase and vegetal products decrease. Graph 6 illustrates this point with the example of China.

Although averages tend to be a misleading concept, Graph 7 shows a direct correlation between income growth and meats consumption.

Meat intake increases with income, but the sky is not the limit. There is a saturation level at which per capita intake starts to move sideward. Of course, this saturation level will vary from country to country due to different factors previously listed. Nonetheless, it is easy to infer that the majority of Developed Countries approaches this level and Developing Countries, mainly those in Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Latin American are far from the world’s average meat intake. The future of meat intake will not depend on those that are already eating but on those that are not eating enough.

Graph 5Elaborated by ODConsulting with data from FAO Hunger Portal http://www.fao.org/hunger/en/. Subnutridos no mundo pessoas e %.xlsx.

Graph 6Elaborated by ODConsulting. Income data from World Bank Databank (www.databank.worldbank.org). China’s per capita food availability from FAOSTAT/Food Supply http://faostat.fao.org.

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XXIVThe world is eating more meat.

Table 3 shows the evolution of world meat production of the main species from 1960 to 2010 and compares it with the world’s demographic evolution. The first finding is that world meat production has grown 2,54 times more than world’s population. Bovine meat loses in the mid 70s its leadership to pigmeat and in the mid 90s to poultry meat, which has led the growth in the examined period.

Whenever inquiring to audiences the reasons for the poultry growth, in most cases the answer is “price”. We think that the reasons are more complex than that:

• Poultry production was present in 203 of 233 countries and territories that registered any meat production in 2010.• Poultry is accessible, available, handy, convenient, versatile, easy for the consumer to find, easy to prepare, can be cooked in myriads of ways and its taste is normally universally accepted;• Poultry suffers to religious restriction to its consumption and is considered a healthy low fat meat;• More poultry products have been launched since the 90’s than all of other meats together. This

Table 4.

World meat production

All meats 000 tonnes

Bovine 000 tonnes

Pigmeat 000 tonnes

Poultry 000 tonnes

Sheep & Goat 000 tonnes

Other meats000 tonnes

World population 000 tonnes

1960 68.016 27.075 24.283 7.961 6.098 2.599 3.023.812

1970 98.171 38.439 35.212 14.611 6.906 3.003 4.442.295

1980 133.365 44.643 52.030 25.743 7.480 3.469 4.442.295

1985 149.921 47.681 58.864 31.370 8.259 3.737 4.843.947

1990 179.860 55.318 69.922 40.937 9.687 3.996 5.270.519

1995 205.750 56.405 79.420 54.647 10.537 4.741 5.692.353

2000 234.077 59.087 90.005 68.597 11.434 3.954 6.086.572

2005 261.129 62.732 99.259 80.847 12.557 5.735 6.464.750

2010 290.836 64.975 109.203 98.067 13.031 5.560 6.842.923

∆% 1960 to 2010

320,8% 140,1% 340,5% 1102,3% 112,6% 212,6% 126,3%

Elaborated by ODConsulting. Sources: Meats total FAOSTAT & GIEWS/FAO

Graph 7Elaborated by ODConsulting. Sources: Meats total FAOSTAT & GIEWS/FAO. GDP per capita by World Bank Dietary. Energy & Income 70-07animal & vegetal products pct.xlsx

Graph 8Elaborated by ODConsulting based on data by FAOSTAT and GIEWS/FAO. Food supply selected countries and areas of the world.xlsx

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World´s Poultry Congress 5 - 9 August - 2012 • Salvador - Bahia - BrazilXXIV

constant innovation renders its consumption feasible several times per week without boring the consumer;

• Last but not least, poultry requires fewer natural resources in its production than all remaining land species.

The natural resources needed for production, mainly water and arable land, are known and finite. As the human diet evolves to more meat intake, the more efficient species will prevail over the other and poultry is and will continue to be the winner.

Following we shall have a Table (6) that normally provokes almost unanimous rejection in audiences, above all when the audiences include cattle producers or beef meat sector. This table gives examples of water required per unit of major food products, including livestock, which consume the

most water per unit. Cereals, oil crops and pulses, roots and tubers consume far less water.3

As human diet evolves towards more animal products intake, mainly meats, and as water is not distributed

evenly over the globe4 (cf. Figure 1 Annual Renewable Water – m2/person/year) water is a fundamental issue for the future supply of food to the world. Poultry is the most efficient of all meats in terms of “water productivity”, factor the will be extreme relevant in the future, when production and consumption shall be driven towards more efficient species in terms of use of natural resources.

These factors make us forecast that poultry should surpass pork as the principal source of meat by the year 2020. Table 7 presents a projection of meats production and world population to 2050.

During the Expert Meeting on “How to Feed the World in 2050,” FAO, Rome, 24-26 June 2009, Nikos Alexandratos’ paper examined the long-term projections in the FAO Study World Agriculture: Towards 2030/50, prepared in the years 2003-05 (from historical data to 2001 and base year 1999/2001) . He concluded that the projections had been found to be still broadly valid at the level of the aggregates considered.

He also pointed out that the deceleration of the meat production in the Developing Countries, forecasted at the study, were taking place. Such deceleration was being considered when the projection on Table 7 were made. We have now made an alternative more conservative scenario estimating that from 2030 onwards the forecasted growth of world meat production/consumption

Table 5 - Countries & territories producing meats in 2010.

Countries & Territories

Poultry Meat

Beef and Buffalo Meat

Sheep & Goat Meat

Pig Meat

233 205 203 199 179

3 - Extract from report mentioned in reference # 194 - “Fewer than 10 countries possess 60% of the world’s available fresh water supply: Brazil, Russia, China, Canada, Indonesia, U.S., India, Columbia and the Democratic Republic of Congo. However, local variations within countries can be highly significant.” Extract from Water Facts & Trends, by WBCSD Water and Sustainable Development Program. http://www.unwater.org/downloads/Water_facts_and_trends.pdfSource: Water Facts & Trends

Table 6

Product Liters of water per kg of crop/product1

Wheat 1.150

Rice 2.656

Maize 450

Potatoes 160

Soybeans 2.300

Beef 15.977

Pork 5.906

Poultry 2.828

Eggs 4.657

Milk 865

Cheese 5.288

Source: 1.Hoekstra - quoted at UN Water Report 2006

Water for People, Water for Life, page 258 . Water, A Shared Responsibility - The United Nations World Water Development Report 2 Published in 2006 jointly by theUnited Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) 7, place de Fontenoy, 75007 Paris, France,and Berghahn Books.

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XXIV

would further lose speed as Developing Countries achieved higher levels of consumption, journey that has started in the 80s and gained boost in the 90s.

We have now made an alternative more conservative scenario that is presented on Table 8. This scenario forecasts that the growth of world meat production would further lose speed from 2030 onwards. By then Developing Countries would have achieved higher levels of meat consumption, process that has started in the 80-s and gained boost in the 90s. Countries that have led this growth process in this period, mainly China and Brazil, would also have a much less impactful impact on world production growth as their achievement of higher consumption levels becomes more balanced.

We have no illusions that the figures on Tables 7 and 8 will be perfect and precise. As many critics

Table 7 – Projections of meats production to 2050 – Optimistic Scenario.


All meats 000 tonnes

Bovine 000 tonnes

Pigmeat 000 tonnes

Poultry 000 tonnes

Sheep & Goat 000 tonnes

Other meats000 tonnes

World population 000 tonnes

2010 290.836 64.975 109.203 98.067 13.031 5.560 6.842.923

2015 310.656 65.951 115.090 110.513 13.434 5.667 7.284.296

2020 337.341 69.089 123.740 124.961 13.974 5.577 7.656.528

2030 398.342 76.090 143.606 158.236 15.058 5.353 8.321.380

2040 456.759 82.811 160.842 191.756 16.258 5.091 8.874.041

2050 505.438 88.794 174.183 220.358 17.260 4.842 9.306.128

∆% 2010 to 2050

73,8% 36,7% 59,5% 124,7% 32,5% -12,9% 36,0%

∆% 2010 to 2050

214.602 000 tonnes

23.819 000 tonnes

64.980 000 tonnes

122.291 000 tonnes

4.229 000 tonnes

(718) 000 tonnes

2.463.205 000 person

Forecast elaborated by ODConsulting based on historical data by FAOSTAT and growth scenarios of several FAO’s papers: Expert Meeting on How to Feed the World in 2050, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Economic and Social Development Department, Rome 24-26 June 2009; World agriculture: towards 2030/2050 , Interim report, Prospects for food, nutrition, agriculture and major commodity groups, Global Perspective Studies Unit, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, June 2006; World agriculture: towards 2015/2030 FAO/UNITED NATIONS, Rome, 2002.

Table 8 – Projections of meats production to 2050 – Conservative Scenario.


All meats Bovine Pigmeat Poultry Sheep & Goat Other meats World population

2010 290.836 64.975 109.203 98.067 13.031 5.560 6.842.923

2040 437.961 82.811 149.454 183.639 16.965 5.091 8.874.041

2050 481.413 88.794 155.541 213.120 19.115 4.842 9.306.128

∆% 2010 to 2050

65,5% 36,7% 42,4% 117,3% 46,57% -12,9% 36,0%

∆% 2010 to 2050

190.577 23.819 46.338 115.053 6.084 (718) 2.463.205

Forecast elaborated by ODConsulting based on data of World agriculture: towards 2030/2050 , Interim report, Prospects for food, nutrition, agriculture and major commodity groups, Global Perspective Studies Unit, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, June 2006; WORLD FOOD AND AGRICULTURE TO 2030/50. HIGHLIGHTS AND VIEWS FROM MID-2009, Nikos Alexandratos, Consultant to FAO, formerly Chief of FAO’s Global Perspective Studies Unit. Meat aggregate production and demand.xlsx

Graph 9Source: FAOSTAT. Produção de Carnes de Aves, Mundo 1965-2010 por espécies.xlsx.

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World´s Poultry Congress 5 - 9 August - 2012 • Salvador - Bahia - BrazilXXIV of projections state forecasts are constantly being redone by those that do them. Since we have started doing them around 1994, final figures have changed quite a lot, with lows of 470 million tonnes to highs of 508 million tonnes. Projections are not statistics nor are they a precise science, but prediction based on known evidence and observations. Nonetheless, since 1994 we have got to a common denominator shared by others that also make projections: all of them, ours as others, have always pointed out to a constant growth of meat production.

Poultry availability in either scenarios should expand its production to 2050 by 3,25/3,46 more than the population growth in the period. Poultry production is led by chicken that represented 87,9% of world production in 2010 and since 1965 it has answered for over 85% of the total.

World poultry meat production is migrating from Developed Countries to Developing Countries (cf Graph 10), which are also steadily increasing their market share in world exports. (cf Graph 11)

Graph 12 permits us to appreciate the market share of the main world poultry meat exporters from 1985 to 2011. While a Developing Country, Brazil, and a Developed Country, USA, respond for ≈ 2/3 of world poultry meat exports, we see that the previously dominant export power, European Union, has lost grounds. Figures for 2010 are preliminary and for 2011 correspond to a forecast by GIEWS-FAO. I actually think that all projections being presented so far are over conservative in terms of prospects above all to the European Union and by October 2012 when the presentation takes place we shall realize that people eat even during crisis.

This over prudent attitude could also be said of the figures for world poultry meat imports presented on

Graph 10Elaborado por ODConsulting a partir de dados da FAOSTAT e GIEWS-Fao. Produção de Carnes, espec., cat.países, 65-11.xls.

Graph 11Idem Export de Carnes 65-2011 por categoria de países.xlsx.

Graph 12Idem Export de Carnes, Brasil, China, USA, CEE 65-2011, jan 2012.xlsx.

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XXIV Africa and Asia, along with parts

of Latin America, shall concentrate the consumption growth for meats up to 2050, since they shall have the population, income increase to be used for diet enhancement and the need to eat.

So it is safe to affirm that while Developed Countries have been the backbone of the poultry industry from the early 60s to the mid 90s, Developing Countries shall be the vector of growth in the coming four decades.

Does it mean that the poultry industry is doomed in Developed Countries? Absolutely not, since all

forecasts indicate that these Developed Countries will continue to answer from 35% to 30% of world demand5, which is an important percentage if we consider their very mild demographic prospects. Many of the Developed Countries shall by then have reached saturation levels, along with some of the Developing Countries (the host country is a perfect example). Developed Countries consumer values are not and shall increasingly be not based on availability and abundance, but on how is the food produced; what impact has it to the environment and those involved in producing it; what sort of guarantees can we offer for food safety; how do we handle and treat animals used for food production. These values are not poetry from overfed people, but true concerns that each time permeate more segments

Graph 13. This Graph reveals that from the mid 00s Developing Countries are each time responding for increasing percentages of world imports. As these countries consumption has been in the rise since then, their production structures cannot follow up the dynamism of consumption, cope with by an increase in imports.

Developing Countries will also concentrate the world’s future demographic growth. By the year 2050 we shall have 9,306 billion people on the planet, 2,410 billion more than in the year 2010. Africa & Asia, integrated mostly by developing countries, shall concentrate 89,1% of the this additional number of the planet’s inhabitants.

World Europe Northern America Oceania Africa AsiaLatin America &

Caribbean

1950 2.532.229 547.287 171.615 12.675 229.895 1.403.389 167.368

1960 3.038.413 603.854 204.318 15.773 286.729 1.707.682 220.058

1970 3.696.186 655.879 231.284 19.506 268.148 2.134.993 286.377

1980 4.453.007 692.869 354.454 22.970 482.803 2.637.586 362.326

1990 5.306.425 729.497 281.162 26.967 635.287 3.199.481 443.032

2000 6.122.770 726.777 313.289 31.130 811.101 3.719.044 521.429

2010% 100,0% 10,7% 5,0% 0,5% 14,8% 60,4% 8,6%

2020 7.656.528 744.177 374.394 42.056 1.278.199 4.565.520 652.182

2030 8.321.380 741.233 401.657 47.096 1.562.047 4.867.741 701.606

2040 8.874.041 731.826 425.467 51.475 1.869.561 5.060.964 734.748

2050 9.306.128 719.257 446.862 55.233 2.191.599 5.142.220 750;956

2050% 100,0% 7,7% 4,8% 0,6% 23,6% 55,3% 8,1%

∆% 2010- 2050 2.410.239 (18.941) 102.334 18.641 1.169.365 977.968 160.874

∆% 2050 100,0% -0,8% 4,2% 0,8% 48,5% 40,6% 8,7%

Idem to # 24.

5 - Nikos Alexandrato, paper referred to in note #21.

Graph 13Idem to # 24.

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World´s Poultry Congress 5 - 9 August - 2012 • Salvador - Bahia - BrazilXXIV Table 9 – OECD-FAO poultry meat per capita consumption – 2007 to 2020.

Poultry consumption per Capita (kg/person year)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

World 11,80 12,14 12,20 12,41 12,60 12,71 12,86

OECD 26,38 26,34 26,04 26,53 26,73 26,94 27,21

Non-OECD 8,43 8,09 9,05 9,22 9,42 9,63 9,68

Developed 24,80 25,09 24,79 26,00 25,36 26,66 25,93

Developing 8,46 8,86 9,03 9,27 9,45 9,54 9,69

Least developed countries 2,74 2,81 2,88 2,91 2,98 3,04 3,13

Poultry consumption per Capita (kg/person year)

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

World 12,99 13,18 13,35 13,52 13,68 13,86 14,02

OECD 27,48 27,79 28,13 28,43 28,73 28,99 29,31

Non-OECD 9,81 9,98 10,15 10,31 10,46 10,63 10,78

Developed 26,21 26,62 26,85 27,14 27,44 27,73 28,04

Developing 0,82 10,00 10,17 10,34 10,49 10,66 10,82

Least developed countries 3,19 3,27 3,34 3,45 3,52 3,64 3,68

Source: Dataset: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020.

of society, regardless of the excesses of activists, a majority of which even have good intentions.

The future to the industry depends not on those that are eating or overeating. It lies on those that are not eating or not eating enough. Table 9 shows the enormous disparity of average intake of poultry meat between Developed, Developing and Least Developed Countries.

Can we cope with the future world demand of the 9,3 billion inhabitants of the planet by 2050 for food and the changes of human diet towards more animal products intake? We think we can do it.

Shall we be able to eliminate subnutrition? We think we can alleviate it but we shall not be able to eliminate it. And shame on us, not for not doing our work, but for not voicing against corruption and standing against rulers that are not for the people and by the people, but for themselves.

Can we do all that without destroying the planet as many activists accuse us of doing? Yes we can do it. Sustainability – economic value + environmental value + social value – and production are not conflicting concepts, but a natural evolution of mankind towards new approaches to cope with the reality of a growing population on a planet of inelastic natural resources. How to do it? Simple: no leg of the sustainability tripod should prevail over the others and doing the millennial “more with less”, which we have been doing for the last 40 years.

We believe that Table 10 constitutes a perfect example of the capacity of the food industry to enhance its productivity, i.e., to do more with less. We have done it in the past thanks to science and technology, of which the Green Revolution led by Professor Norman Borlaugh is the milestone. We can say that it has saved over a billion people from starvation.

We continue with science and technology bringing us new methods, techniques, modernization that enhances food production on a daily basis. It is the on-going Silent Green Revolution that makes us believe in the capacity of human mind to bring

solutions for human problems, and feeding the growing planet’s population in a sustainable way is

Brazilian Poultry Industry - Evolution of average production coefficients in chicken for meta

Year Live bird weight (g)

Feed conversion

Age to slaughtering - weeks/days

1930 1.500 3,50 15 weeks

1940 1.550 3,00 14 weeks

1950 1.580 2,50 10 weeks

1960 1.600 2,25 8 weeks

1970 1.700 2,15 7 weeks

1980 1.800 2,05 7 weeks

1984 1.860 2,00 47 days

1988 1.940 2,00 47 days

1994 2.050 1,98 45 days

1998 2.150 1,95 45 days

2000 2.250 1,88 42 days

2001 2.300 1,85 42 days

2002 2.300 1,83 42 days

2003 2.350 1,88 43 days

2004 2.390 1,83 43 days

2005 2.300 1,82 42 days

2006 2.340 1,85 42 days

2007 2.450 1,85 42 days

2008 2.250 1,79 41 days

2009 2.440 1,80 42 days

2010 2.200 1,78 40 days

Elaborated with data from UBABEF Annual Reports

Osler D

esouzart

11



XXIVone if not major one of them.

Activism sometimes assumes the airs of a re-edition of the Spanish Inquisition and some attitudes approach neo-luddism. Science and technology should have their limits determined by ethics and the pursue of mankind well-being. Out of that it is anarcho-primitivism. Let science do its work and we shall feed the 9,3 billion inhabitants of the planet by 2050.

To you that are the conductors of the Silent Green Revolution my respect and thanks for listening to me.

Documents

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