PUBLIC OPINION Wyatt Doss, Richard Benitez, & Chris Bastian

What is Public opinion?

Best defined as: Why is it important?

Aggregate of individual views, beliefs and attitudes held by a community.

Composed of numerous variants and factions

The public are the people responsible for putting people in power

They set the limit for American foreign policy

Setting Parameters

Cannot set an agenda, but can limit it

Government officials have to pay attention to the parameters set by the public

Not doing so can cost official his/her career

Public can react at the ballot box, through protest whether violent or peaceful, and direct opposition to the law, e.g. Vietnam

Public opinion influences: Types of ConflictMore likely to support: Less likely to support:

Countering aggression (e.g. 9/11, Desert Storm)

Humanitarian aid & Human rights violations (e.g. Bosnia)

State building (e.g. Gothic Serpent)

Regime change (e.g. Muammar Gaddifi)

Public opinion influences: Demographics Socioeconomic background (class structure and rank)

Elite favor national security vs. masses tend to favor domestic structure

Race (minorities vs. majority) Minorities tend to stray from military action vs. Whites who

tend favor military action Education (low vs. high educational background)

Tendencies for action differ among informed and uninformed Gender (male tendencies vs. female tendencies)

Males - tend to be hawkish v. Females - tend to be doves Political ideology ( conservatives vs. liberals)

Conservatives tend to favor force v. liberals favor diplomatic options

Public opinion and the Presidency The “Delegate”

Taking public opinion seriously and into account in the foreign policy decision making process.

E.g. Bill Clinton The “Trustee”

Taking little notice into public opinion, since the President is the top decision maker anyways.

E.g. George W. Bush

Prelude to the Gulf War Operation Just Cause: Panama, Dec 1989

President Bush’s Approval Rating

July 19/22, 1990: Gallup places Bush’s Job Approval at 60%, lowest number in 11 months (1242 people surveyed)

Aug 3/4 & Aug 9/12 1990:Two consecutive polls place Bush’s Approval at 74% (1227 & 1241 people surveyed)

Early Events and Trends August 2, 1990: Iraqi forces invade and occupy Kuwait

Aug 3/4: Bush’s approval rating rises 14 points to 74% [1227, Gallup]

August 6: UN Security Council Resolution 661

August 7: US forces begin deploying to Saudi Arabia Aug 9/12: Bush’s approval rating remains at 74% [1241, Gallup]

August 20: President Bush makes refers to 3,000 Americans held in Kuwait as hostages Sep 10/11: Do you think the US made a mistake in sending troops to

Saudi Arabia? 76% No, 19% Yes [Gallup]

Events and Trends September 11: President Bush, speaking before a joint

session of Congress, refers to Saddam’s aggression, his oil monopoly, and the growing international coalition

Oct 10: Nayirah Testimony before the Congressional Human Rights Caucus

Four Polls are conducted during September and October: An average of 47% of Americans believe that the Gulf Crisis is worth going to war over, 43% do not believe so. [Gallup]

Oct 27/28: How would you rate the president’s handling of foreign policy? 48% - Excellent or Above Average, 29% - Below Average or Poor [KRC Communications Research]

Events and Trends Nov 1: President Bush makes first public comparison between

Saddam and Hitler Nov 1/4: 61% Approve of how Bush is handling the crisis

Nov 8: An additional 150,000 troops are announced for deployment to Saudi Arabia Nov 15/18, (1,018 people surveyed, +/- 3%) Gallup:

○ 54% Approve of how Bush is handling the crisis; Do you support the original decision to defend Saudi Arabia? 65% Yes

○ Do you approve of the decision to send at least an additional 150,000 troops to the region? 47% Yes

○ If the current situation does not change by January, would you favor the US going to war to drive the Iraqis out of Kuwait? 37% Yes, 51% No The group in favor is more likely to be white than black, male than female, and

republican than democrat

Events and Trends Nov 29: UN Security Council Resolution 678

Nov 29/Dec 2, Gallup: ○ If the current situation does not change by January, would you

favor the US going to war to drive the Iraqis out of Kuwait? 53% Yes, 40% No (27% increase in two weeks)

○ Do you think the US made a mistake in sending troops to Saudi Arabia? 66% No, 29% Yes (Statistically insignificant change

Jan 3/6, 1991, Gallup: ○ When reminded of UN Resolution 678 and the fact that allies are

involved, support for military action is at 62% with 32% opposed○ Without a reminder of the UN or the term “allies,” support for

military action falls to 52% with 39% opposed

Public Opinion and Congress Jan 10/12, 1991: Congress debates a resolution that

would authorize the president to use military force to enact UN SC Resolution 678

The general trend of conservatives being in favor of military action while liberals tend to be opposed is reflected by the fact that all Republican Congressmen voted in favor of the resolution aside from 5 members Of the 10 Democrats in the Senate that voted in favor of the

use of force, 9 came from traditionally conservative states: Alabama, Florida, Nevada, Tennessee, Louisiana, and Virgina

All 3 of the Republicans in the House that voted against the use of force came from traditionally liberal states: California, Maryland, and Connecticut

Public Opinion and Congress

During the congressional debate, a number of politicians referenced public opinion as a primary reason for their voting against the use of force:

“Do we really want to go to war, with a country so deeply divided on the issue--and it is deeply divided?”- Representative David E. Bonier (D-Michigan)

“This is not a war we, as a nation, are prepared to fight. We may have the firepower, but we do not have the will.”- Senator Mark O. Hatfield (R- Oregon)

“I vowed … that I would never send troops into battle without the backing of the American people.” - Representative Douglas Peterson (D- Florida)

The Rallying Effect Jan 16: The US bombing campaign begins against

Iraqi targets Jan 17/20, 3,002 surveyed by NYT/CBS:

79% believe the decision to begin military action was the right thing to do while 18% believe the US should have waited (27% increase in 2 weeks) ○ 87% of men, 74% of women, 89% of Republicans, and 66% of

Democrats polled believed it was the right thing to do

Jan 3/6, Gallup: 59% approve of Bush and 31% disapproveJan 17/20, Gallup: 83% approve of Bush and 12% disapprove

The Rallying Effect Jan 17/20: A New York Times/CBS survey is conducted of

550 adults who were opposed to the war in a Jan 3/6 survey but who now supported military action Michelle Fabiano, a 23-year-old teacher in Glasco, N.Y., said: "I

just thought it got to a point where something needed to be done. So much was invested -- our troops, other countries.“

Wallace Anderson, a 71-year-old retired civil servant and World War II veteran from San Antonio, said: "If you're going to have a war, go ahead and have it. In World War II they didn't mess around."

All population groups in the survey had increased in their support for military force: blacks, 23% to 57%; whites, 52% to 80%; men, 56% to 81%; women, 40% to 70%.

Gulf War Conclusion The greatest factors that determined public support were

political ideology and the presence of a multilateral force While President Bush certainly used aggressive rhetoric and

a focus on a variety of issues in order to muster support, he continued to escalate US involvement despite a begrudging public. It is possible that Bush anticipated greater support once the conflict was underway as was the case in Panama, but Robert Gates Robert Gates, who served as the Deputy National Security Advisor during the Gulf War stated, “The president privately, with the most inner circle, made absolutely clear

he was going to go forward with this action even if he were impeached. The truth of the matter is that while public opinion and the voice of Congress was important to Bush, I believe it had no impact on his decision about what he would do. He was going to throw that son of a bitch out of Kuwait, regardless of whether the Congress or the public supported him.”

(Harris poll 7/7/1992), (Pew poll, 1/26/93)

Leading Up to Operation Joint Endeavor

February 29th 1992 - Bosnia and Herzegovina declare independence

April 1992 - Bosnian Serbs begin their siege of Sarajevo

Early polling of public opinion on the conflict shows that 79% of American people support sending U.N. peacekeepers to Bosnia.

25% of Americans cannot identify a single ethnic group fighting in Bosnia.

January 1993 - Bosnia peace efforts fail, war breaks out between Muslims and Croats, previously allied against Serbs.

January 20th 1993 – President Clinton takes office.

(Harris poll 4/28/93) (ABC poll 8/2/93)

U.S. and NATO Involvement in Bosnia April 1993 – NATO begins Operation Deny Flight and enforces no-fly

zone, using fighter aircraft based in the region.

PUBLIC OPINION: Do you support shooting down Serbian planes violating the October 1992 no-fly zone? (61%, in Favor, 22% opposed)

August 1993 PUBLIC OPINION:A.) Would you support military action if the U.S. undertook air strikes alone? (27% in Favor)B.) Would you support military action if it involved airstrikes carried out alongside U.S. allies? (60% in Favor)

Citing the recent success in the Gulf War as a precedent, “Vietnam Syndrome” was not a huge factor. The American people were more open to aggressive action by the military and at the start of the Bosnian conflict, but only under the condition that the U.S. forces were not going in alone.

(CBS poll 5/6/93), (Harris Poll 8/26/93)

The Paradoxical Public August 1993- Would you favor or oppose the U.S. sending ground

troops as part of the peace-keeping force in Bosnia? (48% opposed, 45% in favor)

The public seemed divided about whether or not to escalate United States involvement in the region, with a slim majority opposing sending peace-keeping troops.

Yet in the same month a different poll asked:

“Overall, would you say President Clinton has been too tough, not tough enough, or about right, in his efforts to stop the Serbians attacking Sarajevo and the Bosnians?”

In this poll, a 47% plurality answered that Clinton was not being tough enough, with 39% saying that the president was doing about right. This shows that different polls can derive conflicting information and also that public opinion can shift back and forth relatively quickly.

Escalation of Conflict  February 1994 - PUBLIC OPINION: Would you support U.S.

airstrikes in Bosnia if the president and Congress ordered them? (65% Yes, 19% No)

Men: 69% Yes, 19% No Whites: 64% Yes, 21% NoWomen: 62% Yes, 25% NoMinorities: 58% Yes, 28% NoRepublicans: 40% Yes, 44% No Democrats: 73% Yes, 16% No

The American people deferred judgement to the executive and legislative branch and if they could come to an agreement about military action, they would generally support it. Men and Democrats were most likely to support the president and Congress while minorities and republicans were the least support the decision to carry out airstrikes.

April 1994 - NATO launches its first close air support mission, bombing several Serb targets at the request of UN. NATO continues small scale airstrikes in coordination with the U.N. for the next year.

NATO and UN Escalation July 1995 - Srebrenica massacre, Safe zone of Srebrenica

is overrun by Bosnian Serb forces. Thousands of Bosnian Muslim men and boys are massacred despite the presence of UN troops.

August 1995 - NATO launches Operation Deliberate Force with large-scale bombing of 338 individual targets Serb targets. The bombing lasted until September 20, 1995.

November 1995 - As a result of the intense NATO bombing, the Dayton Accords peace treaty is signed.  NATO agrees to provide 60,000 peacekeepers to be deployed in late December to the region as part of a one-year peace building operation.

Approximately 20,000 of these forces are American as part of Operation Joint Endeavor.

(Harris Poll 12/5/1995)

Public Opinion on the Dayton Accords December 1995 Do you think that the United States

should send 20,000 troops to Bosnia, or not? Total: (29% in favor, 67% opposed)

Democrats: (39% in favor, 55% opposedRepublicans: (34% in favor, 63% opposed)Independents: (28% in favor, 62% opposed)Whites: (37% in favor, 56% opposed)Minorities: ( 35% in favor, 56% opposed)

More than 2-to-1 total majority in opposition. This included a majority of Democrats (55%) and minorities (56%) who opposed the 20,000 troop deployment – two key demographics for Clinton’s support base.

Aggregation of U.S. Public opinion polls on Intervention in Bosnia 1992-1995

Highest support at the beginning with U.N. humanitarian missions and no-fly zone, and in the aftermath of the Srebrenica massacre.

(New York Times, 11/29/95) (Foreign Affairs, 1996)

Clinton’s Decision Clinton had a tendency to adopt a collegial approach to

decision-making and weighed the opinions of his advisors higher than that of the public in this situation.

Decided to stick with the NATO plan and commit 20,000 troops over the course of the next several months.

Clinton claimed “there would be no peace in Bosnia unless the United States made it happen” and pressed on despite lack of support from the public and Congress citing the War Powers Act as justification.

Despite holding a Republican majority in both houses, Congress returned to its Cold-War style of being deferential with regards to military action. Both congressional chambers chose to "support the troops but not the policy”.

(CBS poll 2/22/96) (ABC News 2/25/96)

U.S. Reaction to presence in Bosnia February 1996 - Do you approve or disapprove of the way

Bill Clinton is handling the situation in Bosnia? (44% approve, 43% disapprove)

The public was split relatively evenly with regard to Clinton’s handling of the situation in the early months of deployment. Many people felt the United States’ presence was not necessary in the region. Others felt it was still “too early to tell” if the operation was a success or not yet.

The majority of the 20,000 U.S. troops were withdrawn from Bosnia by December 1996 at the end of the one-year NATO mandate, but a small band of U.S. troops remained in Bosnia as part of a NATO plan to bring stability.

(Source: Pew Research poll October 14-16, 1997)

American Opinion in Hindsight Almost a year after the majority of American troops were withdrawn a 1997

Pew poll asked the public about their opinion of Clinton’s policy in Bosnia. October 1997 - Do you approve of President Clinton’s record of foreign policy

in Bosnia?

Total: 54% Yes 34% No White: 52% Yes 36% No Male: 55% Yes 36% No Non-White: 62% Yes 22% NoFemale: 53% Yes 32% No Republican: 36% Yes 55% NoIndependents: 49% Yes 37% No Democrats: 74% Yes 17% No

Family income:$75,000+: 60% Yes 35% No

$50,000-$74,999: 57% Yes 34% No

$30,000-$49,000: 56% Yes 35% No

$20,000-$29,000: 52% Yes 35% No Less Than $20,000: 53% Yes 33% No

Clinton had the most support from Democrats (74% approval), non-whites (62% approval), and families with over $75,000 in annual income (60%) while having the lowest approval rating amongst Republicans (36%) and Independents (49%). Approval tended to decrease as family income decreased

(Source: Harris poll 12/5/97)

The Public November 1997 – 20% of Americans polled did not know

there were still U.S. troops in Bosnia. Amongst the 80% who did know that troops were in Bosnia

67% said that they approved of the job the troops have done there while the remaining 23% rated their performance as only fair or poor.

In hindsight the majority of people polled had a more favorable view of the U.S. involvement after seeing the results of peacekeeping operations.

The most favorable demographic groups were democrats (73%), people with a 4-year degree or higher (70%), and people with a family income of $75,000 or higher (68%). Women and minorities showed support as well, but not as overwhelming.

President Clinton’s Approval Rating

(Pew poll, April 1995)

Can public opinion make an impact? Public opinion, especially in matters of foreign affairs, can

be inconsistent and uninformed. Examples:- In 1993 only 25% of Americans could identify a single ethnic group fighting in Bosnia

- In 1995 only 15% of Americans could find Bosnia/Serbia on a map.

- In 1997 -5 years after polling on Bosnia began 1 in 5 Americans did not know there were still US troops in Bosnia.

Public opinion is often split down the middle so it can be hard for leaders to rely on the feelings of the American people to make decisions.

Did public opinion make a significant impact in this case? In the early stages of the conflict, perhaps. But not much

effect in the long-run. There was majority support for U.N. and humanitarian aid

in the beginning of the Bosnian conflict but people became wary of committing troops on the ground.

Despite lack of support from the public (only 29% in one poll) and no backing from the Republican-controlled Congress, Clinton made a plan to deploy 20,000 troops on the ground.

Public didn’t put up much of a protest and Congress avoided checking presidential War Powers.

In hindsight it worked out well but had the operation been unsuccessful their likely would have been outcry from the public and Congress.

Conclusions The public during both crises responded with

greater approval for the use of military support when allies were involved

In the Gulf War, liberals did not initially support the conflict. While this matches with general trends between liberals and conflict, democrats supported Clinton. This could be about the natures of the conflicts or about party allegiance to the president.