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Future Skills Needs
Ben NeildAssistant Director, SLIM
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Many jobs that existed in the past have vanished… or nearly vanished.
Labour markets change…
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Male occupations around Bradford in 1714-1720 and 1775 - 1781
Structural Change……is not new.
Source: Babtism Records, cited by Elvira Wilmott, The Bradford Antiquary
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
1714-1720
1775-1781
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Structural Change
Source: Babtism Records, cited by Elvira Wilmott, The Bradford Antiquary
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The pace of change today remains fast.
The fastest growing occupations are those that need Level 4 and Level 3 qualifications.
Source: Labour Force Survey, analysed by UKCES in Skills for Jobs: Today and Tomorrow.
Growing Occupations
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Assembly jobs – done in china
Typists – we do our own
Telephonists – automated out….
… and so on.
But, they are mainly jobs done by people w/ low levels of qualifications.
Young people will need qualifications / skills to compete in the labour market.
Declining Occupations
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It’s sort of obvious...
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Looking forwards
What do (or can) we know about the future?
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Short-term
Bit like the past, with some predictable developments & potential for ‘shocks’.
Workforce Model for labour at
Hinkley Point C
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Employment Projections
Projected growth in higher skilled occupations… as well as in Customer Service and Caring occupations. Declining employment in some skilled
trades, administrative & secretarial occupations.
Employment Growth & Projected Growth, ‘000 jobs, Devon, LEFM
1985 - 2010 2010 - 2025 1985 - 2010 2010 - 2025 Corporate Managers 103% 155% Sales Occupations 150% 97% Skilled Construct. Trades 105% 152% Skilled Metal/Elec Trades 81% 94% Customer Service Occupations 148% 143% Teaching/Research Prof. 164% 91% Health Associate Prof. 157% 140% Elementary: Clerical/Service 161% 90% Science/Tech Professionals 104% 139% Elementary: Trades/Plant/Mach 94% 86% Health Professionals 199% 138% Admin & Clerical Occupations 151% 86% Culture/Media/Sport Occs 190% 138% Leisure/Oth Pers Serv Occs 247% 86% Business/Public service Prof. 130% 134% Skilled Agricultural Trades 81% 84% Managers and Proprietors 136% 132% Protective Service Occs 100% 78% Bus/Public Serv. Assoc Prof. 126% 131% Process Plant & Mach Ops 71% 58% Caring Personal Service Occs 363% 126% Other Skilled Trades 86% 53% Transport Drivers and Ops 92% 114% Secretarial & Related Occs 223% 34% Science Associate Prof. 106% 99%
% Growth % Growth
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Post-industrial society
The economy undergoes a transition from the production of goods to the provision of services.
Knowledge becomes a valued form of capital, see human capital.
Producing ideas is the main way to grow the economy.
Globalization & automation leads to a decline in the prevalence and value of blue-collar & manual labour and a rise in the prevalence and value of professional workers (e.g. scientists, creative-industry professionals, and IT professionals)
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Escalator or Hourglass?
Source: ONS / The Guardian
“… the 21st century still demands quite a lot of people who can flip burgers, collect refuse, clean your house, mind your kids, wait table, care for the sick and elderly, clean your office, guard your buildings/cars/airports, serve behind the counter or at checkout in stores, or pull your pint”.
Ewart Keep, University of Oxford
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Futurist thinking
Driverless Transport
Disappearing Jobs
Taxi and limo drivers, gone.
Bus drivers & Truck drivers, gone.
Truck drivers, gone.
Petrol stations, parking lots, traffic police / wardens, Take-awaydelivery drivers, gone.
Mail delivery drivers, gone.
New Jobs
Delivery dispatchers
Traffic monitoring systems managers
Automated traffic designers, architects, and engineers
Driverless “ride experience” people.
Driverless operating system engineers.
Emergency crews for when things go wrong
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Futurist thinking
Jobs that will exist in 2030 and beyond - Futurist Thomas Sprey
Tree-Jackers Plant and tree alteration specialists, who manipulate growth patterns, create grow-to-fit wood products, personalized fruit etc
Plant Psychologists An entire profession dedicated to undo the damage caused by the Tree-Jackers
Amnesia Surgeons Doctors who are skilled in removing bad memories or destructive behaviour.
Lip Designers If you could have any lips in the world, what would they look like?
Plant Educators An intelligent plant will be capable of re-engineering itself to meet the demands of tomorrow’s marketplace.
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Where are we now?
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Nothing in common
‘The career aspirations of teenagers at all ages can be said to have nothing in common with the projected demand for labour in the UK between 2010 and 2020’.
52% of teenagers aged 13 to 16 aspired to work in three of 25 possible occupational areas.
This falls to 46% for young people age 17-18.
This misalignment of ambitions and employment prospects makes it much less likely that they will experience smooth school-to-work transitions.
Q: “What would to be when you grow up?”
A: “I don’t mind, as long as I get to be on Strictly”.
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Source: ONS Population Estimates
Career aspirations of young people aged 13-14 mapped against projected labour market
demand (2010-2020) – Nothing in Common, Mann et al, UKCES, 2013.
C1 Administrative occupations C13 Other managers and proprietorsC2 Business and public service associate professionals C14 Process, plant and machine operativesC3 Business, media and public service professionals C15 Protective service occupationsC4 Caring personal service occupations C16 Sales occupationsC5 Corporate managers and directors C17 Science, engineering and technology assoc profsC6 Culture, media and sports occupations C18 Science, research, engineering and technology profsC7 Customer service occupations C19 Secretarial and related occupationsC8 Elementary administration and service occupations C20 Skilled agricultural and related tradesC9 Elementary trades and related occupations C21 Skilled construction and building tradesC10 Health and social care associate professionals C22 Skilled metal, electrical and electronic tradesC11 Health professionals C23 Teaching and educational professionalsC12 Leisure, travel and related personal service occupations C24 Textiles, printing and other skilled trades
C25 Transport and mobile machine drivers and operatives
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Participation aged 16-18
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
NEET
In Employment
Other Education and Training
Employer Funded Training
Work Based Learning
Full-time education
Young people are staying in education (mainly full time education) longer and longer, and entering the labour market later
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Qualifications
Source: ONS
Large increase in the number of people qualified to Level 4, despite fees
% working age population qualified to Level 4+
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
England
South West
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Wages by Qualification
Source: APS / ONS
Ave hourly earnings by qualification Level, UK, 2011
Returns to higher level qualifications are much higher in the UK than in many other European Countries.
16.10
12.60
10.00
8.688.07
6.93
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
Degree Highereducation
A Levels GCSE gradesA*-C
Otherqualifications
No qualification
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Population changes too…
Source: ONS Population Estimates
South West England population profile, 2013
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Questions?
Given how difficult the future is to predict and that the young people leaving education today will still be in work until 2060 or so…
… how appropriate is it to prepare them for today’s labour market?
… making the transition from education / youth into work is fraught with difficulty, should it be our focus?
… to what extent will young peoples’ aspirations today create the labour market / jobs of tomorrow?
… is it fairest to focus on core theoretical underpinning knowledge that is transferable to many forms of employment?
