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Kjell AleklettPresident of ASPO

Uppsala University, Sweden

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Workshop in Uppsala 2002

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Polar Oil

Deep Water

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The world oil depletion curve is based on all available information on oil reserves and estimates of the amounts yet-to-find, and indicates that world oil production will reach a peak around 2010 and decline thereafter. The seminar evaluated the evidence for this forecast, and addressed the important political and environmental consequences.

ASPO plans to update the evaluation every year as new information and insights come in, with the intention of providing governments with a reliable basis for planning their responses to this critical issue.

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Bruce StanleyAssociated Press

Oil experts warn global crude supplies could peak by 2010

UPPSALA, Sweden -- Global supplies of crude oil will peak as early as 2010 and then start to decline, ushering in an era of soaring energy prices and economic upheaval -- or so said an international group of petroleum specialists meeting Friday.    They hope to persuade oil-dependent countries like the United States to stop what they view as squandering the planet's finite bounty of fossil fuels.    Americans, as the biggest consumers of energy, could suffer a particularly harsh impact on their lifestyle, warned participants in the two-day conference on oil depletion that began Thursday at Uppsala University in Uppsala, Sweden.    "There is no factual data to support the general sense that the world will be awash in cheap oil forever," said Matthew Simmons, an investment banker who helped advise President Bush's campaign on energy policy. "We desperately need to find a new form of energy."

The Washington Times, The Detroit News,

Houston Chronicle, Las Vegas Sun,

Oil News, Bangkok Post, The Seattle Times,

Atlanta Journal, FoxNews Channel

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One TV camera for 30 minutes

Bo Holmström, TV4, Sweden

Matthew Simmons:

“We need a wake up call. We need it desperately. We need basically a new form of energy. I don’t know that there is one.” 

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Workshop in Paris 2003

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Doris Leblond

“ASPO openly denounce the "politically correct" view held by most policymakers and institutions—not to mention oil companies—that "near-term oil supply is mainly an economic and geopolitical concern."

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Colin Campbell 2003

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Berlin 2004

“The peak-oil debate will be the Next Big Thing.”

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Berlin 2004

                             

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Colin Campbell 2004

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Lisbon 2005 Peak Oil on everyone’s lips

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Lisbon 2004

The documentary workshop

At least seven teamsRepresented by team Kelly Way, six weeks on the rood for peak oil

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Confucius500 BC

Study the past to define the future

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The future of energy

The end of the Oil Age

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The Hubbert model

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Oil reserve

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US Lower 48

US Lower 48: annual oil "mean" discovery & production with Hubbert discovery model

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discovery smooth 5 yrmodel Hubbert disc.productionHubbert disc. shift 35 yr

deepwater

Jean Laherrère Jan. 2003

depression

oil price

proration

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Peak in production

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The dream factories

Fathi Birol

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Dreams of unlimited production

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Sadad Al Husseini

26-Oct-2004

Sadad Al Husseini, just retired as vice-president of the Saudi oil company Aramco: The American government's forecast for future oil supplies are a "dangerous over-estimate".

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10 new Saudi Arabia

2025201520051995

80 mm b/d

100 mm b/d

60 mm b/d

40 mm b/d

+ 38.6 mmbd82 +/-

120.6

Reservoir capabilitydeclines: the leaking bucket syndrome

3-5 % capabilitydecline rate

20 mm b/d

97.6 mmbd = 10 Saudi Arabias by 2025

- 59 mmbd97.6mmbd

2% increase

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The world needs new oil fields

ExxonMobil:

In other words, by 2015, we will

need to find, develop and produce a

volume of new oil and gas that is equal to eight out of every 10 barrels being

produced today.

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IEA – the dream factory

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Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi at the Center for Strategic & International Studies in Washington, May 17, 2005• Remaining world oil reserves are abundant.

• Spare production capacity outside Saudi Arabia is minimal.

• Saudi Arabia now is pumping 9.5 million barrels of oil a day. The country has 1.5 million barrels a day of excess capacity and could maintain 11 million barrels a day if needed.

• There are a number of countries that can increase their capacity.

• There are still huge oil fields in Saudi Arabia. The country has enough oil to pump 12.5 million to 15 million barrels a day for the next 13 to 15 years.

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Deutsche Bank, December 2, 2004

The ASPO view

“The end-of-the-fossil-hydrocarbons scenario is not therefore a doom-and gloom picture painted by pessimistic end-of-the world prophets, but a view of scarcity in the coming years and decades that must be taken seriously. Forward-looking politicians, company chiefs and economists should prepare for this in good time, to effect the necessary transition as smoothly as possible.”

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T. Boone Pickens

"Let me tell you some facts the way I see it. Global oil is 84 million barrels a day. I don't believe you can get it any more than 84 million barrels. I don't care what Abdullah, Putin or anybody else says about oil reserves or production. I think they are on decline in the biggest oil fields in the world today and I know what's it like once you turn the corner and start declining, it's a tread mill that you just can't keep up with.”

Palm Springs, May 4, 2005

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ASPO – A Mission For Peace

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Colin 2005?