www.issa.int

Demographic changes and social security:

Challenges and opportunities

Julien Damon (associate Professor, Paris, Sciences Po)

01.12.2010. Cape Town,

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A synthesis of the ISSA’s work on demographic challenges

Prevention(in all fields)

Activation(for

employment)

Protection(throughout

life)Special Commission on prevention.

Employment and unemployment insurance policies.

Statistical, actuarial and financial studies.

Family benefits. Insurance against occupational accidents and diseases.

Social security investment funds.

Insurance against occupational accidents and diseases.

Family benefits. Invalidity – old age – survivors’ insurance.

Health and sickness insurance benefits.

Health and sickness insurance benefits.

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Identifying seven major demographic changes

Ageing Changes in family structures Changes in the labour market Urbanization Life-cycle desynchronization Migration Changes in social structure

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Ageing around the world as the central challengePercent of population age 65 or older

53 4 4

88

3

7 7

1614

6

15 16

25

World Africa Asia Latin Americaand the

Caribbean

MoreDeveloped

Regions

1980 2010 2040

Source : UN, PRB

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Converging trends in family structuresNumber of children per woman

Source : UN

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Wide-reaching transformations in the labour marketPositive correlation - fertility and working women (OECD)

Source : OECD

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Urbanisation of populations and lifestylesPercent of population living in urban areas

Source : UN, PRB

29

14 16

41

5347

36 37

7673

69

6265

8689

World Africa Asia Latin Americaand the

Caribbean

MoreDeveloped

Regions

1950 2000 2050

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Source : UN, PRB

The unequal desynchronisation of life cyclesLife expectancy at birth, in years

49

6772

76

6565

7780 82

75

Africa Asia Latin Americaand the

Caribbean

More DevelopedRegions

World

2000-2005 2045-2050

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Migrations to come and movements to followOrigin and destination of international migrants

Source : UNDP

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The global evolution of social structuresReduction in extreme poverty (percentage)

Source : MDG

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Still a World of Differences…Sewerage sanitation

Source : worldmapper.com

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Conclusion

The demographic challenges and crisis as opportunities

Yet more challenges…

Dynamic social security as a decisive actor for change

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Thank you