WWRP Polar Prediction Project – SERA Elements

Brian Mills Adaptation and Impacts Research, Climate Research DivisionEnvironment CanadaFaculty of Environment, University of WaterlooWaterloo, ON, Canada N2L 3G1 Brian.Mills@ec.gc.ca +1 519 888 4567 (ext. 35496)

Chair, WMO-WWRP-SERA WGhttp://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/new/weather_society.html

ArcticNet (2010)

Opening thoughts

• Northern/Canadian bias (bi-polar?)

• Limited time/thought thus far

• Implementation will require a SERA sub-committee with one liaison to the Steering Group

ACIA (2008:991)

Core Membership

• social scientists • users • engagers

WWRP Expert Liaison (Verification)

WWRP Expert Liaison (THORPEX-TIGGE)

WWRP Expert Liaison (Mesoscale Weather,

THORPEX-RCs,etc.)

Research & Application Interest

Groups

Projects, Demonstrations &

Testbeds

WMO Programme Management (THORPEX-EC, WMO Forum/PWS, CCl-

OPAGs3/4…)

Other Connections (IFRC, IAEM, Earth System Science Partnership, GEO, WHO,

WTO, World Bank, NMHAs, industry organizations, IIASA, etc.)

ICSU/ISSC/ISDR Integrated Research on

Disaster Risk (IRDR)

WWRP-SERA & Polar Prediction Project

General observations

• Costs are as important as benefits

• Longitudinal analysis/perspective and comparison across social, institutional and cultural geography is critical

• Value accrues in use (decision-action-consequence web) and is highly dependent on the context, situation and capacity of the individual, group or organization

• Primary entry point should be through National Meteorological and Hydrometeorological Services (NMHS)

Flows of information and potential benefits

Mills (2011)

Possible benefit areas

REGIONAL EXTRA-REGIONAL

Residents and Indigenous communities

• lives (safety/health/QOL)

• livelihoods

• culture

• infrastructure

• …

Resource development and use

• energy, minerals, fisheries, water, transportation, tourism, R&D

• environment

• worker/visitor safety

• …

Safety, security, sovereignty, and

environment

Improved predictions in other regions

SERA elements

• Literature review to establish/confirm weather-related sensitivities/risks, benefit areas, and applications for decision-prediction scales (nowcasting through seasonal); social and economic research capacity evaluation (incl. gap analysis)

• Past-present-future prediction and services perspectives (researchers-forecasters-primary users…)

• define risks, opportunities, and decision problems• translation of skill improvements into products/services, costs and

benefits• enabling factors

• Traditional and local knowledge perspectives (?)

Mining completed and on-going R&D

• International Polar Year

• ArcticNet (Canada - http://www.arcticnet.ulaval.ca/)

• Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (http://www.acia.uaf.edu/)

• Polar Communications and Weather satellite mission (Canada)

• European, Asian, and Southern Hemisphere activities

Mining completed and on-going R&D

ArcticNet (2010)

Important partners/endorsements

• International Social Sciences Research Council (ISSC) (http://www.worldsocialscience.org/)

• Arctic Council (http://www.arctic-council.org/index.php/en/)

• Antarctic (?)

• WMO (Public Weather Services), WCRP