WWROF Webinar April 16, 2013 K9LA Solar Topics Carl Luetzelschwab K9LA [email protected] my web site is now at

WWROF Webinar April 16, 2013 K9LAWWROF Webinar April 16, 2013 K9LA

Solar TopicsSolar Topics

Carl Luetzelschwab K9LACarl Luetzelschwab K9LA

[email protected]@arrl.net

my web site is now at http://k9la.us


WWROF WebinarsWWROF Webinars Great way to learn about other aspects of Great way to learn about other aspects of

Amateur RadioAmateur Radio Recent onesRecent ones

• The First Top Band DX Contest – the 1921 Transatlantic The First Top Band DX Contest – the 1921 Transatlantic Test (by W3LPL)Test (by W3LPL)

• Overview of Rule Changes for CQ WPX 2013 (by K5ZD)Overview of Rule Changes for CQ WPX 2013 (by K5ZD)• CTU and Dayton Contest Activities (by K3LR) CTU and Dayton Contest Activities (by K3LR)

UpcomingUpcoming• April 26: What I’ve Learned in Two Decades of Terrain April 26: What I’ve Learned in Two Decades of Terrain

Assessment (by N6BV)Assessment (by N6BV) Don’t forget to support WWROFDon’t forget to support WWROF


What We’ll CoverWhat We’ll Cover

Cycle 24 updateCycle 24 update Butterfly diagramsButterfly diagrams MagnetogramsMagnetograms Old sunspot dataOld sunspot data Missed an early cycle?Missed an early cycle? Grand solar minimumsGrand solar minimums Max vs previous minMax vs previous min Our Cycle 24 predictionOur Cycle 24 prediction

Two Cycle 24 predictions All the Cycle 24 predictions Hemisphere asymmetry Cycle 24 – two peaks? SSN vs SF vs EUV Are Sunspots Disappearing? Disturbances from the Sun References

Mostly solar topics, with a tiny bit of propagation when relevant


Cycle 24 UpdateCycle 24 Update

Cycle 24 appears to have had a peak in early 2012

Cycle 24 in terms of 10. 7 cm solar flux

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180

Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jan Jul Jan

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

10

.7 c

m S

ola

r F

lux

monthly mean smoothedMarch 2013latest monthly

September 2012latest smoothed

? ? ?


Butterfly DiagramsButterfly Diagrams

• Sunspots in a new cycle emerge at higher solar latitudes• Sunspots at the end of a cycle are near the solar equator

note asymmetryHathaway image


MagnetogramsMagnetograms Sunspot region has Sunspot region has

magnetic field going out magnetic field going out and coming back inand coming back in

Measure magnetic field Measure magnetic field by Zeeman splittingby Zeeman splitting

By convention, black is By convention, black is “in” and white is “out”“in” and white is “out”

Magnetic fields are Magnetic fields are opposite from one cycle opposite from one cycle to the nextto the next

Magnetic fields are Magnetic fields are opposite in the opposite in the hemisphereshemispheres

solar equator

first sunspot region of Cycle 24

NASA photo

old sunspot region from Cycle 23

Butterfly diagrams and magnetograms allow solar scientists to determine to which cycle (old or new) a sunspot region belongs


A Cycle Is Really 22 YearsA Cycle Is Really 22 Years

Cycle 21 max

1976 2012

Hoeksema, Sun, and Hayash image

Cycle 22 max Cycle 23 max


Cycle 24 - SunspotsCycle 24 - Sunspots

Sunspot data exhibits the same trends as the 10.7 cm solar flux data

Solar Min Between Cycle 23 and 24 and Cycle 24 Ascent(in tems of the sunspot number)

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J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Su

nsp

ot

Nu

mb

er


Old Sunspot DataOld Sunspot Data Counting sunspots is subjectiveCounting sunspots is subjective

• Human interpretation involvedHuman interpretation involved Wolf 1849-1893, Wolfer 1876-1928, Brunner Wolf 1849-1893, Wolfer 1876-1928, Brunner

1929-1944, Waldmeier 1945-19951929-1944, Waldmeier 1945-1995

• Capability of telescope and cloud coverCapability of telescope and cloud cover Wolf’s equation: RWolf’s equation: RZZ = k (10G + S) = k (10G + S)

• k is variable to bring different observers in k is variable to bring different observers in line, G is number of groups, S is number of line, G is number of groups, S is number of individual spotsindividual spots

Hoyt and Shatten asked the simple Hoyt and Shatten asked the simple question “How good is the old data?”question “How good is the old data?”


Group Sunspot NumberGroup Sunspot Number Realizing that counting individual sunspots Realizing that counting individual sunspots

(S) was likely the biggest challenge, they (S) was likely the biggest challenge, they devised the Group Sunspot Numberdevised the Group Sunspot Number

RRGG = k (12G) = k (12G)

The factor “12” scales RThe factor “12” scales RGG to R to RZZ

If you divide RIf you divide RGG by R by RZZ you should get 1.0 you should get 1.0 That’s what they did, and here’s what it That’s what they did, and here’s what it

looks likelooks like


RRGG / R / RZZ Uncorrected Uncorrected

RG / RZ less than 1.0 early onTwo discontinuities – around 1946 and 1885It looks like we’ve lived thru the highest solar activity in history

Svalgaard & Cliver image


Data Under ReviewData Under Review On-going WorkshopsOn-going Workshops

• Sponsored by National Solar Sponsored by National Solar Observatory, the Royal Observatory of Observatory, the Royal Observatory of Belgium, and the Air Force Research Belgium, and the Air Force Research Laboratory Laboratory

Ultimate goal is to review and agree Ultimate goal is to review and agree on the “true” sunspot numberon the “true” sunspot number• Targeted to happen at a Fall 2013 Targeted to happen at a Fall 2013

Workshop in EuropeWorkshop in Europe


RRGG / R / RZZ Corrected Corrected

Ratio of RG to RZ varies about 1.0 (can’t do much about the early scatter)Important implication: we’ve NOT lived thru the highest solar activity

Svalgaard & Cliver image


Did We Miss An Early Cycle?Did We Miss An Early Cycle?

Cycle 4 was Cycle 4 was extremely extremely longlong

1784 – 17981784 – 1798 14 years14 years

How could we have missed a cycle – the data looks very good

Alvestad image


Problem: Gaps In The DataProblem: Gaps In The Data

Much of the Much of the Cycle 4 data Cycle 4 data was assumedwas assumed

What really What really happened?happened?

Hathaway image

Dalton Min

xxx Min


Reconstructed Butterfly DiagramReconstructed Butterfly Diagram

Suggests Cycle 4 may have really been only 10 years longSpots from a new cycle may have appeared in 1795/1796

Cycle 4 start

den

sit

y o

f su

nsp

ots

Cycle 5 start


Auroral ActivityAuroral Activity

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1785

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1805

auro

ras

per

year

year

Indicates an increase in auroral activity around 1796

Cycle 4 start Cycle 5 start


Missed Cycle - ConclusionMissed Cycle - Conclusion

We may have missed an early cycleWe may have missed an early cycle It was a small one prior to the Dalton It was a small one prior to the Dalton

MinimumMinimum Doesn’t appear to be any discussion Doesn’t appear to be any discussion

to further review and correct thisto further review and correct this• It would be difficult to re-number the It would be difficult to re-number the

cycles after Cycle 4cycles after Cycle 4• If anything is done, best to call it Cycle If anything is done, best to call it Cycle

4a4a


Grand Solar MinimumsGrand Solar Minimums

No reliable sunspot data from long agoNo reliable sunspot data from long ago Use proxies for solar activityUse proxies for solar activity

• Carbon-14 in tree ringsCarbon-14 in tree rings High carbon-14 means low solar activityHigh carbon-14 means low solar activity Low carbon-14 means high solar activityLow carbon-14 means high solar activity

• Beryllium-10 in ice coresBeryllium-10 in ice cores Identical trends to carbon-14 Identical trends to carbon-14

Gives us a broad view of solar activityGives us a broad view of solar activity


Inferred Grand MinimumsInferred Grand Minimums

We’ll likely go through another Grand Minimum – questions are “when?” and “what magnitude?”

xxx


Duration of Solar MinimumDuration of Solar Minimum

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111

-12

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313

-14

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515

-16

16-1

717

-18

18-1

919

-20

20-2

121

-22

22-2

323

-24

sola r m inim um be tw e e n indic a te d c yc le s

nu

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ow

a

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of

20

Cyclic in nature – started with short duration solar mins

recent solar min (56 months)


Maximum of Solar Cycle Maximum of Solar Cycle

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solar cycle number

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imu

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Also cyclic in nature – started with large solar cycles


Max and Duration of Previous MinMax and Duration of Previous Min

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33-

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66-

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1010

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212

-13

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414

-15

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616

-17

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818

-19

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020

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21-2

222

-23

23-2

4

sola r m inim um be tw e e n indic a te d c yc le s

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

solar cycle number

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They are out of phase


The Correlation Suggests . . .The Correlation Suggests . . .Next Solar Max vs Duration of Previous Solar Min

R2 = 0.5815

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10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

months at solar minimum (smoothed sunspot number < 20)

max

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e

Our prediction for Cycle 24 is a smoothed sunspot number of ~ 80Translates to a smoothed 10.7 cm solar flux of ~ 130


Official Prediction - ISESOfficial Prediction - ISES ISES has not ISES has not

changed their changed their prediction since prediction since mid 2009mid 2009

Prior to mid Prior to mid 2009, they 2009, they carried two carried two predictionspredictions• One high, one One high, one

lowlow

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/


Official Prediction - MSFCOfficial Prediction - MSFC

http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml

MSFC continues to revise its prediction based on actual results


A Comment About PredictionsA Comment About Predictions Over 60 Over 60

predictions for predictions for Cycle 24Cycle 24

From 40 to 180 From 40 to 180 (smoothed (smoothed sunspot number)sunspot number)

Several are going Several are going to be “right”to be “right”

Many more will be Many more will be wrongwrong

We still don’t We still don’t understand the understand the process in the Sun process in the Sun that causes solar that causes solar cyclescycles


Hemisphere AsymmetryHemisphere Asymmetry Sunspot emergence not symmetricalSunspot emergence not symmetrical

The northern hemisphere has dominated Cycle 24The northern hemisphere has dominated Cycle 24

If the southern hemisphere gets going . . . .

Svalgaard & Kamide image


Cycle 24 – Two Peaks?Cycle 24 – Two Peaks?

Dr. Presnell of the Goddard Space Flight Center Dr. Presnell of the Goddard Space Flight Center believes Cycle 24 will have two peaksbelieves Cycle 24 will have two peaks

Second peak from southern hemisphereSecond peak from southern hemisphere Cites Cycle 14 as similar to Cycle 24Cites Cycle 14 as similar to Cycle 24

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6j4bl57D_1U

C yc le 14

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Great video -


Recent Two-Peaked CyclesRecent Two-Peaked Cycles

Cycles 19, 20, and 21 didn’t have a discernible second peakCycles 22 and 23 had two peaksReminder – official peak is in terms of a smoothed solar index


Early Two-Peaked CyclesEarly Two-Peaked Cycles

Would be nice if Cycle 24 did something like Cycle 23 or 12

Cycle 5 Cycle 9

Cycle 11 Cycle 12

Alvestad images


SSN vs 10.7 cm SF vs EUVSSN vs 10.7 cm SF vs EUV Reminder – sunspots and 10.7 cm solar flux Reminder – sunspots and 10.7 cm solar flux

are proxies for true ionizing radiationare proxies for true ionizing radiation True ionizing radiation is at wavelengths True ionizing radiation is at wavelengths

from roughly 0.1 – 100 nanometersfrom roughly 0.1 – 100 nanometers• 0.1 – 1 nm and 121.5 nm for the D region0.1 – 1 nm and 121.5 nm for the D region• 1 – 10 nm for the E region1 – 10 nm for the E region• 10 – 100 nm for the F2 region10 – 100 nm for the F2 region

Important wavelength for F2 region Important wavelength for F2 region ionization is around 30 nmionization is around 30 nm• Contributes to about 2/3 of the electron densityContributes to about 2/3 of the electron density


Daily Values of 26 - 34 nmDaily Values of 26 - 34 nm

correlationsunspots vs EUV .628310.7 cm sf vs EUV .7492

Daily 10.7 cm solar flux correlates better to daily EUV

But don’t throw out sunspots

D aily E U V vs D aily S uns pot Number - November 2001

R 2 = 0.6283

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2.70

E+

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2.80

E+

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2.90

E+

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3.00

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3.10

E+

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3.20

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da ily E UV (26-34 nm )

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D aily E U V vs D aily 10.7 c m S olar F lux - November 2001

R 2 = 0.7492

160180200220240260280300

2.70

E+

10

2.80

E+

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2.90

E+

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3.00

E+

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3.10

E+

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3.20

E+

10


dai

ly 1

0.7

cm s

ola

r fl

ux


Variation of the IonosphereVariation of the Ionosphere

Neither EUV, 10.7 cm solar flux nor sunspots correlate well to the day-to-day variation of the ionosphere

D aily B oulder MU F vs D aily S F - November 2001

R 2 = 0.05232

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160 180 200 220 240 260 280 300

da ily 10.7 c m soa lr flux

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UF

(19

00 U

TC

)

D aily B oulder MU F vs D aily R - November 2001

R 2 = 0.15301

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da ily inte rna tiona l sunspot num be r

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(19

00 U

TC

)

D aily B oulder MU F vs D aily E U V - November 2001

R 2 = 0.09672

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2.70

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2.90

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3.00

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3.10

E+

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3.20

E+

10


dai

ly M

UF

(19

00 U

TC

)

F2 region ionization depends on solar radiation, geomagnetic field activity, and events in lower atmosphere coupling up to ionosphere


Another Interesting CorrelationAnother Interesting CorrelationR 12 vs F 12 F rom 1991 T hru P eak of C yc le 23 (April 2000)

R 2 = 0.995

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sm oothe d sunspot num be r R 12

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F12

Up to the first peak of Cycle 23, smoothed sunspot number and smoothed 10.7 cm solar flux were extremely well correlated


But After the Peak . . . But After the Peak . . . R 12 vs F 12 F rom 1991 T hru P res ent

R 2 = 0.9827

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F12

We now see less sunspots for a given 10.7 cm solar flux


Are Sunspots Disappearing?Are Sunspots Disappearing? July 2009 paper by W. July 2009 paper by W.

Livingston and M. PennLivingston and M. Penn Sunspots are visible Sunspots are visible

when their magnetic when their magnetic field strength is field strength is >> 1500 1500 gaussgauss

Extrapolating the linear Extrapolating the linear trend line says no trend line says no sunspots will be visible sunspots will be visible around the end of the around the end of the decadedecade

Latest data presented Latest data presented by Dr. Leif Svalgaard by Dr. Leif Svalgaard (thru early 2013) (thru early 2013) shows the decreasing shows the decreasing trend is continuingtrend is continuing

most recent data

Livingston & Penn image


What’s Happening to EUV?What’s Happening to EUV?

EUV is holding up in spite of sunspots disappearingOther measurements (next slide) confirm this

S moothed Values

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valu

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s uns pot num ber 10.7 cm s ola r flux E U V

C yc le 23

C yc le 22

EUV data from www.usc.edu/dept/space_science/semdatafolder/long/daily_avg/


Other MeasurementsOther Measurements

Why 6m was so good around Nov 2001

This data suggests that sunspots are the only parameter that is disappearing

Lukianova & Mursula images


Another MinimumAnother Minimum A grand solar minimum

is a period when sunspots disappear

But since it appears that EUV may still be there, maybe a grand solar minimum will not be as bad as we think

This is radical thinking Archibald image

Only answer is to wait and see what happens to EUV with respect to the disappearing sunspots


Disturbances from the SunDisturbances from the Sun

visit http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/ to learn more about G, S, and R


Mitigation for DisturbancesMitigation for Disturbances

No guarantees here – just suggestions


ReferencesReferences The Solar CycleThe Solar Cycle, David H. Hathaway, NASA, Marshall , David H. Hathaway, NASA, Marshall

Space Flight Center, Huntsville, AL, March 2010Space Flight Center, Huntsville, AL, March 2010 A History of Solar Activity over MillenniaA History of Solar Activity over Millennia, Ilya G. , Ilya G.

Usokin, Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory, University of Usokin, Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory, University of Oulu, Finland, October 2008Oulu, Finland, October 2008

Solar Cycle Characteristics Examined in Separate Solar Cycle Characteristics Examined in Separate Hemispheres: Phase, Gnevyshev Gap, and Length of Hemispheres: Phase, Gnevyshev Gap, and Length of MinimumMinimum, A. A. Norton and J. C. Gallagher, James Cook , A. A. Norton and J. C. Gallagher, James Cook University, Townsville, Australia, January 2010 University, Townsville, Australia, January 2010

http://www.solen.info/solar/http://www.solen.info/solar/ http://www.leif.org/research/http://www.leif.org/research/ Temporal Changes in Sunspot Umbral Magnetic Temporal Changes in Sunspot Umbral Magnetic

Fields and TemperaturesFields and Temperatures, M. J. Penn, W. Livingston, , M. J. Penn, W. Livingston, National Solar Observatory, The Astrophysical Journal, 649, National Solar Observatory, The Astrophysical Journal, 649, L45-L48, September 2006L45-L48, September 2006


References – con’tReferences – con’t Another Maunder Minimum?Another Maunder Minimum?, Leif Svalgaard, Stanford , Leif Svalgaard, Stanford

University, November 2012University, November 2012 Reconciling Group and International Sunspot Reconciling Group and International Sunspot

NumbersNumbers, Leif Svalgaard, Stanford University, Edward W. , Leif Svalgaard, Stanford University, Edward W. Cliver, Air Force Research Laboratory, September 2012Cliver, Air Force Research Laboratory, September 2012

Disappearance of Visible SpotsDisappearance of Visible Spots, Leif Svalgaard, Stanford , Leif Svalgaard, Stanford University, September 2012University, September 2012

Solar Activity – Past, Present, and FutureSolar Activity – Past, Present, and Future, Leif , Leif Svalgaard, Stanford University, October 2012Svalgaard, Stanford University, October 2012

Symmetric Solar Polar Field ReversalsSymmetric Solar Polar Field Reversals, Leif Svalgaard, , Leif Svalgaard, Stanford Univeristy, Yohsuke Kamide, Nagoya University, Stanford Univeristy, Yohsuke Kamide, Nagoya University, December 2012December 2012

Changed relation between sunspot numbers, solar Changed relation between sunspot numbers, solar UV/EUV radiation and TSI during the declining phase UV/EUV radiation and TSI during the declining phase of solar cycle 23of solar cycle 23, R. Lukianova, K. Mursula, Journal of , R. Lukianova, K. Mursula, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-terrestrial Physics, 73 (2011), pp Atmospheric and Solar-terrestrial Physics, 73 (2011), pp 235-240235-240


SummarySummary

Cycle 24 has a good chance of having a second Cycle 24 has a good chance of having a second peak – will help prolong propagation on the peak – will help prolong propagation on the higher bandshigher bands

Right now the few Cycle 25 predictions are for Right now the few Cycle 25 predictions are for another low solar cycleanother low solar cycle

We’ll enter another grand solar minimum one of We’ll enter another grand solar minimum one of these daysthese days• Don’t know when or magnitudeDon’t know when or magnitude• But it may not result in the demise of the ionosphereBut it may not result in the demise of the ionosphere

Best to use the smoothed 10.7 cm solar flux in Best to use the smoothed 10.7 cm solar flux in your propagation predictionsyour propagation predictions

We covered a lot of material – the following are what I consider important

Documents

WWROF Webinar April 16, 2013 K9LA Solar Topics Carl Luetzelschwab K9LA [email protected] my web site is now at