WUP-FIN2 socio - economic and policy analysis

WUP-FIN2 socio-economicand policy analysis

WUP-FIN2 Introductory Training – Bangkok

MARKO KESKINEN & OLLI VARIS

PRESENTATION OUTLINE

1. Introduction

2. Methodologies for

socio-economic analysis

3. Work in Nam Songkram

(and in Vientiane Area)

4. Interactive discussionINTRODUCTION

METHODOLOGIESNAM SONGKRAM

DISCUSSION

WATER MANAGEMENT

• Water management is much more than managing water

includes also environment & people (+politics!)

multidisciplinary & interdisciplinary approach with participatory aspect is essential

but how to integrate the diverse information?

• Changed demands for water management mean that water modelling has to change, too

better linking with society & greater participation

IWRM

INTRODUCTIONMETHODOLOGIESNAM SONGKRAM

DISCUSSION

WATER & SOCIETY

• Socio-economic analysis within a water modelling project?

to link modelling & water with local people

to widen the approach from modelling to impact assessment

to make maximum use of models

• But just carrying out the analysis is not enough: it has to be tightly integrated with modelling perhaps most demanding task INTRODUCTION


DISCUSSION

LOCAL PEOPLE & THEIR LIVELIHOOD

WATER

PROBLEMS & NEEDSRELATED TO WATER

HELP & ANSWERS TO PROBLEMS

SOCIO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

MODELLING

”Modelling that is better connected to real world & local level”

Facilitates solving of water-related problems

Helps to link modelling to management & decision making

OBJECTIVE & FOCUS AREAS

• To support the MRC and national institutions in water-related socio-economic & policy analysis close cooperation with above institutions essential!

• Focus areas– Tonle Sap – Mekong Delta – Vientiane Area in Lao PDR– Nam Songkram watershed

Policy Analysis of Lower Mekong Basin


DISCUSSION

• Methodologies used in the s-e analysis:(example from the Tonle Sap Lake, Cambodia)

– Participatory village survey & interviews– Analysis of socio-economic databases (GIS)

– Policy analysis with WUP-FIN Policy Models (based on Bayesian Networks)

METHODOLOGIES

s-e analysis

policy

analysis

94.6%100.0%94.9%99.8%100.0%82.9%Khmer

52.9%66.0%51.2%48.9%44.3%35.7%Literacy

11581215543138288No. of villages

3.0%0.0%0.9%0.0%0.0%14.0%Vietnamese

52.0%51.9%52.3%52.2%52.0%50.6%Females

55.9%53.4%56.6%57.0%58.3%56.0%0 - 19 years

1 186 192291 460470 196283 10456 69084 742Population

1 487 6097 255157 355229 207240 694853 098Area (ha)

All zonesZone 5Zone 4Zone 3Zone 2Zone 1BASIC

INDICATORS

94.6%100.0%94.9%99.8%100.0%82.9%Khmer

52.9%66.0%51.2%48.9%44.3%35.7%Literacy

11581215543138288No. of villages

3.0%0.0%0.9%0.0%0.0%14.0%Vietnamese

52.0%51.9%52.3%52.2%52.0%50.6%Females

55.9%53.4%56.6%57.0%58.3%56.0%0 - 19 years

1 186 192291 460470 196283 10456 69084 742Population

1 487 6097 255157 355229 207240 694853 098Area (ha)

All zonesZone 5Zone 4Zone 3Zone 2Zone 1BASIC

INDICATORS

853 098

0

100 000

200 000

300 000

400 000

500 000

Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5

ha

/ p

op

ula

tio

n

Area (ha)

Population


DISCUSSION

1) Database analysis in GIS

2) Village surveys & interviews

Two levels: local & regional

SOCIO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

LOCAL LEVEL: water-related

links & problems

REGIONAL LEVEL: impact analysis

& decision making

knowledge

integration

Analysis according to topographic

zones in GIS

analysis

support

Two phases: analysis & integration INTRODUCTIONMETHODOLOGIESNAM SONGKRAM

DISCUSSION

Tonle Sap study area arranged into five zones according to topography (+urbanisation)

Makes analysis and linking with the models easier:

Water does not follow administrative boundaries!

Zone 1: 0 - 6 metres Zone 2: 6 - 8 metres Zone 3: 8 - 10 metres Zone 4: 10 metres to National Roads Zone 5: Urban areas

TOPOGRAPHIC ZONING


DISCUSSION

Databases give access to extensive (albeit often biased) quantitative information

First: review of existing databases Census 1998 Fishing Household Survey 1996 Topographic database (Certeza) Other databases

Then: construction of own GIS-based database that arranges information according to different topographic zones database analysis according to zones

DATABASE ANALYSIS


DISCUSSION

Examples fromTonle Sap

BASIC INDICATORS Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 All zones

Area (ha) 853 098 240 694 229 207 157 355 7 255 1 487 609

No. of villages 88 82 313 554 121 1158

Population 84 742 56 690 283 104 470 196 291 460 1 186 192

0 - 19 years 56.0% 58.3% 57.0% 56.6% 53.4% 55.9%

Females 50.6% 52.0% 52.2% 52.3% 51.9% 52.0%

Literacy 35.7% 44.3% 48.9% 51.2% 66.0% 52.9%

Khmer 82.9% 100.0% 99.8% 94.9% 100.0% 94.6%

Vietnamese 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 3.0%

Information derived from Census 1998 and Fishing Household Survey 1995-96INTRODUCTION


DISCUSSION

Qualitative and up-to-date village-level information but extremely small sample size

Based on participatory methods (RRA/PRA)Complemented and contradicted databases

”To see behind the numbers” Grassroots level information on actual water-

related benefits, problems and needs”Make local people’s voice heard”

Also more quantitative survey/interview methods (questionnaires) applicable

VILLAGE SURVEYS & INTERVIEWS


DISCUSSION

Key informant interview

Group discussion

Participatory mapping

Transect walk and observation

Seasonal calendar and occupational preference

ranking

Time ranking

Focus group discussion and rankings on

migration & urbanisation

Final discussion and analysis of the study

SURVEY METHODS


DISCUSSION

POLICY MODELLING (1/2)

• Analyse impact of water management policies- different sector policies (Tonle Sap)- different governance levels (Vietnam)

Understand the most critical management and governance issues Support for planning & decision making

• Assists in learning of possibility of compromises helps in formulating compromise policies


DISCUSSION

POLICY MODELLING (2/2)

Based on Bayesian causal networks

• Probabilistic: efficient handling of uncertainties

• Allow multidisciplinary modelling and analysis

both quantitative and qualitative information

• Expert / stakeholder consultation essential part

process of developing the model

as important as model results

”LEARNING PROCESS” INTRODUCTIONMETHODOLOGIESNAM SONGKRAM

DISCUSSION

SCENARIOS & IMPACTS

TENDENCIES LINK MATRIX

WUP-FIN POLICY MODELTONLE SAP LAKE CONSER 19 ECON 50

Mean Accuracy Mean AccuracyFormal institutions (Ministries) > ** > ***Education, public health > ** > **Urban development (Provincial capitals) *** >>> ****Community development (villages) *** *Water and sanitation services ** > *Navigation *** >> ****Roads and other infrastructure > *** >>> *****Agriculture, irrigation *** >> **Large-scale fisheries < *** >>> ***Small, medium scale fisheries *** << **Conservation >>> ***** ****

DEVEL. GOAL DIAGRAMS

POVERTY REDUCTION

I

ENV'TAL SUSTAINAB.

I

ECONOMIC GROWTH

I

Mean AccuracyWater Toxic substances, oil spills >> *Regional Soil degradation > ***

Aquatic weeds, eutrophication, low oxygen

>> **Biodiversity decline > **

Forests Flood forests < *Other forests < **

Agriculture Floating rice < ***Wet season rice > **

Form

al in

stit

uti

ons

(Min

istr

ies)

Educa

tion,

public

healt

h

Urb

an d

evelo

pm

ent

(Pro

vin

cial ca

pit

als

)

Com

munit

y d

evelo

pm

ent

(vill

ages)

Wate

r and s

anit

ati

on s

erv

ices

Navig

ati

on

Roads

and o

ther

infr

ast

ruct

ure

Agri

cult

ure

, ir

rigati

on

Larg

e-s

cale

fish

eri

es

Sm

all,

mediu

m s

cale

fish

eri

es

Conse

rvati

on

Flo

ods

Dro

ughts

Susp

ended s

olid

s, s

edim

enta

tion

Toxic

subst

ance

s, o

il sp

ills

Formal institutions (Ministries) 0,15 0,10 0,05 0,10 0,15 0,10 0,08 0,10 0,05 0,25 -0,03

Education, public health 0,10 0,20 0,10 0,05 -0,03

Urban development (Provincial capitals) 0,02 0,05 0,15 0,02 0,02 -0,02 0,04 0,15

Community development (villages) 0,10 0,10 0,15 -0,10 0,10

Water and sanitation services -0,02 0,01 0,01

Navigation 0,02 0,02 0,08 0,02 -0,03 0,10

Roads and other infrastructure 0,10 0,10 0,02 -0,02 0,02

Agriculture, irrigation -0,15 -0,10 0,20 0,15

Large-scale fisheries -0,12 -0,05 0,01

Small, medium scale fisheries -0,01

Conservation -0,10 -0,02 -0,20 -0,02

S-E ANALYSIS IN NAM SONGKRAM

• Aim to support modelling by– Increasing the understanding of local socio-economic

conditions, particularly of water-related livelihoods (e.g. fishing, farming) and their trends

– Analysing the interconnections with water resources and livelihoods

What are the most critical water-related issues in the area that modelling should address?

– Enhancing the participation of local people in modelling work

Integration with modelling work essential INTRODUCTIONMETHODOLOGIESNAM SONGKRAM

DISCUSSION

• Key issues and questions

– What has already been done? Existing information (databases, surveys, etc.)

– Is this enough, or is something more needed?• By you as Thai counterparts• By the modelling project

What should be the focus of the analysis?

- What should be the approach of the analysis?- Review of existing literature and information, AND- Database analysis, AND/OR- Village surveys & interviews



DISCUSSION

• Key issues and questions

– What are the main institutions working in Nam Songkram related to socio-economics?

cooperation with them?

– Who should be the main responsible?• Socio-economic analysis by Thai counterparts• Facilitation and training by WUP-FIN • Integration with modelling together

– Vientiane area: bank erosion issue?



DISCUSSION

• Ideas / requests from the BDP of MRC

– Modelling: look at the flood pulse concept how far does the flooding impact of the Mekong reach with different floods? how different scenarios impact this?

- Socio-economic analysis: focus on fisheries hydrology & fish fish & people

- Make use of already existing information!



DISCUSSION

DISCUSSION

Comments and questions?

www.eia.fi/[email protected] & [email protected] INTRODUCTION


DISCUSSION

http://www.eia.fi/wup-fin







Documents

WUP-FIN2 socio - economic and policy analysis