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WTO Information technology WTO Information technology symposium.symposium.
"The Challenges ahead for the ITA with "The Challenges ahead for the ITA with Converging Technologies and IC Manufacturing Converging Technologies and IC Manufacturing Techniques"Techniques"
Ray Foy – Intel Corp. EMEA Customs & Ray Foy – Intel Corp. EMEA Customs & Licensing managerLicensing manager
Moore’s LawMoore’s Law
The number of transistors on a chip will double every 18-24 monthsThe number of transistors on a chip will double every 18-24 monthsThe number of transistors on a chip will double every 18-24 monthsThe number of transistors on a chip will double every 18-24 months
1,0001,000
10,00010,000
100,000100,000
1,000,0001,000,000
10,000,00010,000,000
100,000,000100,000,000
1,000,000,0001,000,000,000
19701970 19801980 19901990 20002000 20102010
40044004
80808080
80868086
80088008
PentiumPentium486 DX486 DX
386386286286
Pentium IIPentium IIPentium IIIPentium III
Pentium 4Pentium 4
1 Billion transistors before 20101 Billion transistors before 2010
42 Million42 Million
# of transistors
Inte
r co
nn
ect
s
Transistor
• Precision at the molecular and atomic levels.
• 23 masking layers. • Some layers are
thinner than a virus.
Building an Integrated CircuitBuilding an Integrated Circuit
1/10
th T
hic
k nes
s o
f H
um
an
Ha i
r!
~ 60 days to manufacture
Process Trends: New Generation Process Trends: New Generation
Every 2 YearsEvery 2 Years 1000010000
10001000
100100
1010
1010
11
0.10.1
0.010.01
MicronMicronNano-Nano-metermeter
Nominal feature sizeNominal feature size
NanotechnologyNanotechnology
130nm130nm90nm90nm
70nm70nm50nm50nm
Gate LengthGate Length
Source: IntelSource: Intel
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Processor TechnologyProcessor Technology1 nanometer = 1 billionth of a meter1 nanometer = 1 billionth of a meter
Processor TechnologyProcessor Technology1 nanometer = 1 billionth of a meter1 nanometer = 1 billionth of a meter
Silicon ProcessSilicon ProcessTechnologyTechnology 800nm800nm 600nm600nm 350nm350nm 250nm250nm 180nm180nm 130nm130nm
TransistorsTransistors(Millions(Millions))
PentiumPentium®®
ProcessorProcessor
PentiumPentium®® Pro ProProcessorProcessor
PentiumPentium®® II IIProcessorProcessor
PentiumPentium®® III IIIProcessorProcessor
PentiumPentium®® 4 4ProcessorProcessor
ItaniumItanium® ® 2 2 ProcessorProcessor
3.33.3
5.55.5
7.57.5
9.5 - 259.5 - 25
4242++
480480
Smaller, Faster, Better, Cheaper Smaller, Faster, Better, Cheaper
Average Transistor Price By YearAverage Transistor Price By Year
Source: Dataquest/Intel12/02Source: Dataquest/Intel12/02
0.0000001
0.000001
0.00001
0.0001
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
10
'68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02
$$
Si Technology: Complexity Increasing Si Technology: Complexity Increasing ExponentiallyExponentially
Roadmap Trends: SummaryRoadmap Trends: Summary
More Speed per processors More Speed per processors More memory integrationMore memory integrationMore processors per coreMore processors per coreMore transistors per processor.More transistors per processor.More complex manufacturing. More complex manufacturing. Larger wafersLarger wafersNarrower circuits.Narrower circuits.
The boundaries of physical science are the The boundaries of physical science are the perennial challenge.perennial challenge.
TodayToday
2003/20042003/2004
2004/20052004/2005
2005/20062005/2006
Chip Scale Chip Scale Stacked PackageStacked Package
Folded StackedFolded StackedChip Scale PackageChip Scale Package
Next generation Next generation Multichip ModuleMultichip Module
Thru silicon and otherThru silicon and otheradvanced package optionsadvanced package options
SIP Technologies: SIP Technologies: Stacked Die + Stacked PackagesStacked Die + Stacked Packages
Stacked thin dieStacked thin die++
PackagingPackagingintegrationintegration
Stacked thin dieStacked thin die++
PackagingPackagingintegrationintegration
Microprocessor evolution – 1996 / 1997Microprocessor evolution – 1996 / 1997
Pentium® Pro Processor8473.30
L2 Cache/TAG/
Controller
CPU &L1 Cache/Controller
Pentium (R) II Processor 8473.30
Dual die Dual die processorprocessor
Cartridge Cartridge package.package.
Multichip side by side in packageMultichip side by side in package
Vertical stacked IC’s in packageVertical stacked IC’s in package
Integrated Circuit stacking.Integrated Circuit stacking.
Simple model – multi chipSimple model – multi chip . .
Multi- substrate / multi IC in Multi- substrate / multi IC in packagepackage
Processor package x sectionProcessor package x section
* data is run rate exiting the year. Source: Intel, *Other names and brands may be claimed as the property of others
All CPU development All CPU development on Dual/Multi-Coreon Dual/Multi-Core
All CPU development All CPU development on Dual/Multi-Coreon Dual/Multi-Core
Moving from Chips/Computer to Computers/Chip
Multi chips are already hereMulti chips are already here . .Multi chips are already hereMulti chips are already here . .
Processor x sectionProcessor x section
Processor packaging – The problem Processor packaging – The problem with passives!with passives!
Passive devices move Passive devices move classification outside classification outside HS 8542HS 8542
Passive devices move Passive devices move classification outside HS 8542classification outside HS 8542
The problem with passives.The problem with passives.
Integrated Passives (on silicon)Integrated Passives (on silicon)– passive components on silicon, created in the mass to all intents passive components on silicon, created in the mass to all intents
and purposes indivisible.and purposes indivisible.– Combined in multichip forms with other active IC’sCombined in multichip forms with other active IC’s
ALTERNATIVE TECHNOLOGYALTERNATIVE TECHNOLOGY– TO CERAMIC / OTHER FORMSTO CERAMIC / OTHER FORMS– SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN SIZE.SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN SIZE.– DRIVES FURTHER MINIATURISATION DRIVES FURTHER MINIATURISATION
– All products of the semiconductor industry.All products of the semiconductor industry.
BUT NOT ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT H.S.BUT NOT ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT H.S.
BROADBANDBROADBANDEntertainment,Entertainment,
E-Business, ServicesE-Business, Services
MEDIAMEDIAPre-Recorded ContentPre-Recorded Content
Personal MediaPersonal Media
BROADCASBROADCASTT
Services,Services,EntertainmentEntertainment
Any ContentAny Content11, Any Place, , Any Place, Any Device, Any TimeAny Device, Any Time
Digital Home VisionDigital Home Vision
1 As Authorized1 As Authorized
Digital Home:Digital Home:
All All DevicesDevices and and ContentContent are are going going DigitalDigital
InnovationInnovation
DemandDemand
COMPUTING
COMMUNICATIONS
All All computingcomputing devices devices communicatecommunicate
All All communicationcommunication devices devices computecompute
All All enabled enabled by by siliconsilicon
Convergence VisionConvergence Vision
Any Time, Any Time, Anywhere, Anywhere, Any DeviceAny Device
SummarySummary
MiniaturisingMiniaturising– Micron-scale to nano-scale. Micron-scale to nano-scale.
Functionalising.Functionalising.– Reduced size enables more functions in less Reduced size enables more functions in less
space (all on silicon)space (all on silicon)– More integration / more complexity.More integration / more complexity.
Converging. (computing and comunications)Converging. (computing and comunications)– Developers put more optimum functionality for Developers put more optimum functionality for
multiple application.multiple application.
The ChallengeThe Challenge
The HS is unable to cope with the advance of The HS is unable to cope with the advance of technology. The problem is NOW! technology. The problem is NOW! – All computing devices communicateAll computing devices communicate– All communication devices computeAll communication devices compute– All enabled by silicon.All enabled by silicon.
Silicon circuitry and high density packaging serve:Silicon circuitry and high density packaging serve:– energy conservationenergy conservation– MiniaturisationMiniaturisation– Complex multifunctionality.Complex multifunctionality.
The current HS should not be a limiter to ITA The current HS should not be a limiter to ITA expansion. expansion.