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    ??

    Hayes 2001(Declan Hayes is a Professor of International Business at

    Sophia University in Tokyo, Japan: The Toothless Tier, p! "#$$ %%%

    in&icate pararaph 'reaks D) $*

    Currently, only the American bases in Okinawa maintain the political tranquility of theSouth China Sea, and even they are no panacea. Roughly 20,000 of the 29,000 troops on Okinawa are Marines attachedto the Seventh leet, and they are routinely deployed anywhere in the Seventh leet!s sprawling operating areas of the "estern#acific and $ndian Oceans. Okinawa is, in other words, %erely a convenient parking lot& the fact that it is on 'apanese soil is

    secondary to its %ain policing %ission. (hese ) S. Marines have nothing to do with the defense of Okinawa** or the rest of

    'apan for that %atter. Recent revelations of ).S. plans to +last the island and its inha+itants to s%ithereens in the event of a

    Soviet attack have not endeared ).S. forces to the locals who re%e%+er how the 'apanese $%perial r%y wantonly sacrificed

    the% as literal cannon fodder in their +attles against the %ericans in -9/. On the positive side, the +ases do show Okinawa!scontinuing strategic i%portance, the )nited States did not want the island falling into ene%y hands. Cold consolation to the

    Okinawans, +ut consolation nonetheless. (he fact is that Okinawas strategic position gies it immense

    alue to the ! nite" S tatesand her allies, a alue that the opponents of the American alliance

    "ownplay# when they "on$t "ismiss itout of hand. Okinawa remains the linchpin of

    American military power in the Asian arena. Okinawa is Americas front line in the South

    China Sea. (he oint %erican and 'apanese forces statione" there preent China$s nay from

    asserting itself in the South China Sea. Okinawa is the fallback position if Americaan"herallies are eer again pushe" off the %uwait peninsula. Okinawa is the base from which

    American reinforcements will be rushe" to &aiwan in a "ooms"ay situation. Okinawa

    keeps the sea lanes open' it preseres the status quo the (a) Americanathat has +een so good

    to 'apan. nd therein lies the ru+. *t keepsa non*sian power# the ! nite" S ates, at the helm of Asia an"

    therefore keeps a %aor sian nation, China# "own+,,,lthough this %akes good housekeeping sense in

    "ashington, it spells strategic disaster (okyo. -ust as America$s with"rawal from Subic .ay create" a

    acuum that China1uicklyfille"# soalso will the aban"onment of Okinawacreate another#

    bigger acuum that China will also fill+ China$s lea"ers are using nationalistic rhetoric to

    keep their ast regime together#an" any "iminution of the American forces in Okinawa

    will only encourage China to increase its war of wor"s. ecause -apanhas +een as 1uiet as a %ouse

    for the last fifty years, it is ill equippe" to engage in the propagan"a wars that will ensue when theSeventh leet weighs anchor* 'apan will wake up to find )ncle Sa%!s navy gone +ack to 3awaii and her own neigh+or

    descending into anarchy. nd -apan will be helpless to reme"y the situation+ China is not the

    only source of concern. ar fro% it4 Asia is awash with flash points that the ! nite" S tates#

    -apan# an" their allies must continue to monitor. (hese include the four %urile *slan"s,

    occupie" by /ussiasince -9/ andclaime" by -apan' orth %orea, still isolated, still ar%ed, and still

    e5tre%ely dangerous' the iaoyo,Senkaku *slan"s,su+ect to rival clai%s +y 'apan, China, and (aiwan&&aiwanitself, under al%ost continuous %ilitary threat fro% China& yanmar, controlled +y an oppressive %ilitary unta Ca%+odia,

    e%erging fro% decades of strife and %ayhe% and always facing the prospect of war with 6ietna%& the Spratly $slands,variously clai%ed +y China, the #hilippines, 6ietna%, Malaysia, (aiwan, and runei& Mindanao, where Musli% insurgents

    continue to under%ine the govern%ent of the #hilippines& 7ast (i%or, the for%er #ortuguese territory anne5ed +y $ndonesia in

    -98/ and only now e%erging fro% an $ndonesian*inspired genocide ca%paign& $ndonesia itself, sia!s ugoslavia, the world!s

    %ust populous Musli% nation, awash with ethnic and sectarian strife& %ashmir# the epicenter of a nuclear

    roulette game between *n"ia an" (akistan& and ougainville, fighting for independence fro% #apua :ew;uinea. nd then, of course, there is the chaos of Russia, the for%er

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    +loodshed. 3owever, conflicts +etween these two old adversaries will al%ost certainly call a third player into the ga%e. (hat

    third player China, which sees 6ietna% as a %aor threat and which desperately wants to +reak the growing working alliance

    +etween (aipei and 3anoi. $f $ndia or any of Chinas other potential ene%ies decided to oin in, the conflict would 1uickly

    spread. (he sa%e would +e true China were to +e drawn into a %aor war +etween $ndia and #akistan. Russia, $ndia, China,

    #akistan, $ndonesia, and %ost of sia?s other key players are held together as national entities only +y the sli%%est of threads.$t would not take %uch to unravel those threads. $ndonesia, 7ast (i%or, @ash%ir, and Chechnya have shown the violence the

    region is capa+le of. $t is easy to dis%iss such scenarios out of hand, +ut we ignore these undercurrents at our peril.