WRAP Update

WESTAR Meeting

San Francisco

April 25, 2011

Background

• WRAP is a voluntary association of states, tribes, federal land managers, locals and EPA– WRAP is not incorporated– Staffed and administered by the Western Governors’

Association (and previously by the National Tribal Environmental Council)

• Primary mission from 1999 – 2008 was to implement the recommendations of the Grand Canyon Commission and coordinate planning and analysis for regional haze SIPs– Charter revised in October 2009 to align with current

organization and functions

Background (cont.)• WRAP has historically been funded by EPA with “off the top” state grant dollars

• Funding has been greatly reduced in recent years. To date, no funding for 2011

• States contributed directly to WRAP last year to keep operations going

• WRAP staff have generated several projects funded by other sources

• Nevertheless, current budget will be exhausted by year end– WRAPs technical support systems (TSS, VIEWS, EDMS, & Regional Modeling

Center) have been mothballed

– Viability of WRAP in 2012 and beyond is in jeopardy without a new mandate (ozone) and funding

Current Projects• Oil and Gas Emissions Inventories

• Biogenic Emissions Inventory Improvement Project

• WestJump Air Quality Modeling Study

• Ozone Scoping Plan

• Fire– Fire Emissions Tracking System– FLM Fire/Ozone Analysis Project

• Potential project for FLMs, EPA, and 3-States– Data Warehouse for Oil and Gas Information (WY, UT, CO)

Oil & Gas Emission Inventories

• Regional oil & gas emissions inventory work ongoing since 2005

• Results have been used for regional haze and NAAQS

• 2006 inventories for all major oil and gas basins in the West

• 2009 inventories for WY/MT/ND

• Piceance Basin Pilot Project: Mobile source emissions from oil and gas industry operations• Emission factors can be used to estimate emissions in other basins

Biogenics Emissions Inventory Improvement Project

• Funded by WESTAR– RFP issued– Contractor selection late May

• Getting biogenic emissions right is important for ozone – Will update biogenic emissions model and model inputs– Including land use and vegetative cover data– Emissions factors for Western plants– States to decide base year for model run (2008, 2010?)

• Product : Regionally complete and consistent biogenic emissions inventory and modeling inputs

West-Wide Jumpstart Air Quality Modeling Study (WestJump AQMS)

• The beginning of our regional ozone modeling effort. Can provide the foundation for modeling and analysis required for SIPs

• Includes model performance study for ozone & other air quality indicators– Builds on previous WRAP & other modeling work– Will provide source apportionment results to inform the ozone

planning process

• Phase I: Analyze and process 2008 emissions and meteorology at very high resolution (4km)

Pending funding

• Phase II – test model improvements, write modeling protocol, and connect with BLM NEPA modeling

• Phase III - air quality & source apportionment model results for entire West at 12km resolution, with detailed source apportionment results for 4km study areas

WestJumpAQMS Modeling Domains

36 km

12km

4 km

36 km : 148 x 112 (-2736, -2088) to (2592, 1944)12 km * 227 x 218 (-2388, -1236) to ( 336, 1524)04 km * 335 x 407 (-1696, -904) to ( -356, 724)04 km * 101 x 92 (-1192, -508) to ( -788, -140)04 km * 137 x 83 (-1084, -904) to ( -536, -572)

Modeling Domain

-2520 -2160 -1800 -1440 -1080 -720 -360 0 360 720 1080 1440 1800 2160 2520

-1800

-1440

-1080

-720

-360

0

360

720

1080

1440

1800

* includes buffer ce lls

Examples of 4-km Four Corners and Southern NM detailed source apportionment modeling domains are shown, to be used in CAMx/CMAQ photochemical grid modeling.

Western Ozone Modeling and Emissions Workshop

• Boulder, CO – June 21-23

• Gather state, local, FLM, and EPA (Regions and OAQPS) modeling experts, along with key contractors

• Address how to, lessons learned, and next steps:

– Evaluate quality and completeness of emissions inventories

– Review modeling studies to date

– Identify opportunities for collaboration and data sharing

– Discuss future analysis of ozone in the West

• EPA Transport Rule 2

• Ozone SIPs – §110a2d transport, attainment demonstrations

Western Ozone Scoping Plan

• Analyze and document: – Technical and planning requirements to support future ozone planning and

emissions control work across the West

– Analyze the nature and causes of elevated ozone and precursors for urban, rural, and Class I areas across the West

• “Road map” to:– Identify what is known and not known

– Describe required technical and planning activities

– Establish schedule for technical analysis and SIPs

– Help WRAP members organize and prioritize for this major planning effort

FLM Joint Fire Sciences ProgramFire/Ozone Analysis project

• Determine contribution of wildland fire to elevated ozone events

• Focus is on Western and Southeastern regions– Will provides data, results, products, and tools for ozone planning

• Will improve technical basis for managing prescribed fire to reduce ozone

• Complete 2008 fire data will be used in WestJump

• Will support operation of Fire Emissions Tracking System and will add capability to develop inventories for SIPs

• Funded by BLM through the Joint Fire Science Program– 18-month project, currently proposed start in July 2011

Federal Leadership Forum/3-State Project• Develop a data warehouse to support future air quality modeling for NEPA analyses

of oil & gas projects

• Project includes:

– Federal Leadership Forum (EPA Region 8, OAQPS, NPS, USFS, and BLM)

– 3 States (CO, UT, WY)

• WGA plans to submit a joint proposal with Colorado State University (CIRA)

– Data warehouse can take advantage of existing WRAP data bases

– WGA is well situated to fulfill project needs and can coordinate as appropriate with WRAP work on ozone

• Data warehouse activities: July 2011 through June 2012

• Project Manager duties: ¼ time from July 2011 through July 2014

• Proposals due May 5th

WRAP Projects & Workshops for Western Air Quality Planning

Modeling Workshop

Biogenic Emissions

Ozone Scoping Plan

WestJump

Fire/Ozone Analysis Project

Support of Western Ozone SIP Planning

Technical Analysis for Ozone, PM2.5, and

Regional Haze Planning

PM2.5 NAAQS &Regional HazeSIP Updates

Ozone NAAQS: Transport SIPs and

AttainmentDemonstrations

Present Future

Regional Haze and Future PM2.5 NAAQS

• IMPROVE data through 2009 is on WRAP TSS– 2005-09 regional haze tracking averages calculated– To be published in upcoming periodic IMPROVE report

• EPA Technical Support Document (2-28-2011)– Prepared by Regions 6, 8, 9, 10 and WRAP staff to support

approval of Regional Haze SIPs

• Future– PM2.5 NAAQS revision requires §110a2d transport SIP

modeling– Periodic Regional Haze SIP updates

Next Steps?

• WRAP is prepared to coordinate the regional technical analysis and planning process for ozone

• Technical work has begun• Funding to continue is uncertain

• Revised ozone NAAQS expected to be the first time Western states confront regional planning for a health standard– WRAP has the organizational structure, experience with

regional planning, and technical expertise to assist states– Significant resources will be needed to do the job

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