Worldwide Trends in Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Abatement Technologies and Policies

Peter Mock 1st European Automotive Summit November 9, 2010 (Brussels)

The International Council on Clean Transportation Top 10 vehicle markets account for 85% of global sales

 “The mission of the ICCT is to dramatically improve the environmental performance and efficiency of cars, trucks, buses, and transportation systems in order to protect and improve public health, the environment and quality of life.”

 Promoting global best practices for fuel consumption, fuel quality and pollution reduction technologies

Car and Truck Sales 2008:

Data source: Ward’s Automotive

Slide 2

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On the way to de-carbonize transport Learning from the success story conventional pollutants

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Source: European Climate Foundation Roadmap 2050 (McKinsey Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve; IEA WEO 2009; US EPA; EEA; Team analysis)

Source: TREMOD model (Germany)

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Introduction Technologies to reduce GHG emissions

Policies to drive GHG emission reductions Conclusions

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Percents are approximate, based on energy losses for vehicles on the combined U.S. city and highway drive cycles. Sources: Kromer and Heywood, 2007 and U.S. EPA, 2010 http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/atv.shtml

What are the technological options? Modern vehicles are generally 15-20% efficient with potential for improvement

  There are many energy losses in an automobile   Different technologies address different losses   Many new technologies are just beginning to be deployed by automakers

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Data source: EPA, NHTSA, CARB Interim Joint Technical Assessment Report: Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emission Standards and Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards for Model Years 2017-2025 Consumer payback calculation assumptions: Baseline fuel consumption 6 l/100 km, fuel price 1.30 €/l, annual mileage 15,000 km

Technology cost / benefit estimates Major incremental efficiency improvement comes at modest cost

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US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) 2017-2025 rulemaking estimates:

Hybrid

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6+ speed transmission

Turbocharging

Direct injection

Advanced lightweight materials

Cooled EGR

Efficient accessories

2020 2025

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Data source: EPA, NHTSA, CARB Interim Joint Technical Assessment Report: Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emission Standards and Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards for Model Years 2017-2025 Consumer payback calculation assumptions: Baseline fuel consumption 6 l/100 km, fuel price 1.30 €/l, annual mileage 15,000 km

Technology cost / benefit estimates Major incremental efficiency improvement comes at modest cost

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US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) 2017-2025 rulemaking estimates:

Hybrid

Stop-start

Variable valve timing

6+ speed transmission

Turbocharging

Direct injection

Advanced lightweight materials

Cooled EGR

Efficient accessories

2020 2025

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Electric drive expected to increase in the long-run But most studies still see over 90% use of petroleum fuels up to 2020-25

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ICE

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Lightweight materials offer great potential Recent studies demonstrate possibilities for body weight reduction

Material composition of lightweight vehicle body designs:

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Body composition

Mild steel High strength steels Aluminum Magnesium Plastic/composite

16%

39%

42%

body

weight

reduction

57%

10% weight reduction = 6.5% fuel consumption reduction

Source: National Academy of Sciences (NAS), 2010, values compared to MY 2008-2009 TT: tractor-trailer (Class 8); Box: straight box truck (Class 3-6); Bucket: straight truck with utility bucket (Class 3-6); Refuse: refuse hauling truck (Class 8); Bus: transit bus (Class 7-8); Coach: motor coach (Class 7-8); Class 2b: pick-up trucks and vans

Significant potential for heavy-duty vehicles National Academy of Sciences study shows close to 50% reduction

Potential fuel savings for new vehicles in 2015-2020:

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Introduction Technologies to reduce GHG emissions

Policies to drive GHG emission reductions Conclusions

[1] Based on 3% annual fleet GHG emissions reduction between 2017 and 2025 in the September 30th NOI. [2] Based on 6% annual fleet GHG emissions reduction between 2017 and 2025 in the September 30th NOI. [3] China’s target reflects gasoline fleet scenario. If including other fuel types, the target will be lower.

Regulatory developments worldwide US, China and South Korea are making significant progress

Current CO2 emissions and future targets worldwide:

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Source: ICCT internal new vehicle databases

Vehicle fleets are different worldwide Reducing vehicle weight and engine power as an option to reduce CO2

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Europe 1,300 kg 3.9 m2 80 kW USA 1,740 kg 4.5 m2 160 kW China 1,250 kg 3.8 m2 80 kW India 1,050 kg 3.2 m2 60 kW Japan 1,080 kg 3.7 m2 80 kW Mexico 1,690 kg 4.1 m2 120 kW

Cumulative sales:

Source: ICCT (2010) Size or Mass? - The Technical Rationale for Selecting Size as an Attribute for Vehicle Efficiency Standards

Any standard should fully capture lightweight A weight-based standard discourages application of lightweight materials

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Conclusions Europe as a model for other regions / countries?!

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  Long-term reduction targets require de-carbonization of transport   60% or more improvement of conv. vehicles feasible at modest costs

  Electric vehicles can help to improve further in the post-2020 era

  Europe has been the pace setter for GHG reductions in the past

  But other countries / regions are catching up

  Need for technology neutral GHG emission standards, also fully capturing benefits from application of lightweight materials

  Europe as a model for other regions / countries … ?!

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