Worldwide Market Update on NiMH, Li Ion and Polymer … · · 2013-05-21Worldwide Market Update on NiMH, Li Ion and Polymer Batteries for Portable Applications and HEVS ... WW Secondary

Worldwide Market Update on NiMH, Li Ion and Polymer Batteries for Portable Applications and HEVS

THE 24th INTERNATIONAL BATTERY SEMINAR & EXHIBIT10:30 -12:15 Pre-Seminar Tutorial II

March 19, 2007

Hideo TakeshitaVice President

Institute of Information Technology, Ltd.URL: http://www.iit.co.jp

[email protected]

1. WW Secondary battery market overview2. LIB market trend by supplier and application3. LIB material and technology4. Small Fuel Cell impact on portable applications5. HEV and HEV battery movement6. LIB future market forecast

1. WW Secondary battery market overview

• LIB market further expansion– Double digit volume growth continues, 07CY volume will be 2.6B cells– Demand for NBPC/Cellular is firmly growing– Power Tools, DSC, game, audio and BT devices require more LIB– Ready for LIB powered HEV in 08-10CY, UPS and energy storage systems will follow

• Accident and recall make LIB tougher– Painful payment for “Too much cost reduction” and “Uncompleted high capacity

technology”– However, no replacement solution of LIB for portable devices– Before the full scale introduction of the 2nd gen. technology and LIB powered HEV, the

recent issues are meaningful warnings– Importance of the new safety technologies such as MBI’s HRL

• NiMH/NiCd future is unclear– Only one promising is AA/AAA NiMH for alkaline-primary cell compatible– Shocked by Nickel metal price unbelievable rise (LIB also suffered, but the damage is

smaller)

Copyright ©2007 /IIT Page 2

1-1 Almost 10B US$ market with HEV and packs

1535182318832060217116951692139413991204

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LIB Lami.LIB Cy/PrNiMHNiCd

• Fig.1 Worldwide rechargeable battery market (value base)


1-2 LIB penetration in PT is faster than expected

• Competition among Sony/Sanyo/SDI and E-One LiMn2O4/A123 LiFePO4 technologies accelerate the shift to LIB at PT

• Fig.2 Cell demand and pack base composition by chemistry (07CY)

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

NBPC

Cellular

Movie

Power Tools

Cordless phone

DSC

Audio

Game

Consumer

HEV

Others

Worldwide cell demand(Million cells/CY)

NiCd

NiMH

Cy LIB

Pr LIB

Lami LIB

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

NBPC

Cellular

Movie

Power Tools

Cordless phone

DSC

Audio

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HEV

Pack volume share


1-3 Always Material/Cell/User collaborate

• Good triangle realizes the technology and cost improvement of LIB (It seems that FC does not have…)

• Fig.3 Historical review of LIB technology/player/user91-95 96-00 01-05 06-10 Future

Key tech. New Cathode LiCoO2 LiMn2O4 NMC and/or High V chargeNCALiFePO4

New Anode Amorphous carbon…Graphite Graphite capacity enahancementSn type anode Si type anode and/or Low V cut

New supporting material Functional electrolyte HRL/Functional separator or new layer Non flammeble electrolyte?Gel polymer and laminate package

New structure Cylindrical Prismatic Laminate and/or stack Thin and large electrode for HEV Bi-polar system for HEV?

Sony and ATB Sanyo and MBI BYD for manual operation A123… Toyota and NissanGSMT, NEC and Maxell LGC and SDI

Sanyo for high speed manufacturing

Sony CAM, Dell, Toshiba for LIB adoption MOT for low cost Nokia for low cost Dewalt for LiFePO4 JP big 3 for HEVIBM ThinkPad for safety SEMC/Apple for polymerNTT Docomo for safety Bosch/Makita for PT

Chinese manual operationJP high speed manufacturingKorea challenge by financial support

Material price down (by the volume increase) and/or Takeshita? Material again (by inexpensive process and raw material)

Key player

Key user

Cost reduction


2. LIB market trend by supplier and application

• Every supplier has a double-edged sword– Sanyo: Strong in low cost segment and business success, annoyed by the high voltage and high

capacity cell problems– SDI: Strong in delivery and communication to be No.2, but not ready for further price war and high

safety technology– Sony: PT and polymer business really good, however deeply damaged by the recall– MBI: Advanced with high capacity and safety technology, the task is having the second vendor

and business success– LGC: Cylindrical and polymer coming back with the good chemical/technology background,

although prismatic is struggling to get the big customers– Unique is that LIB business succession and whole company/group situation are opposite

• MOT and Nokia moves are to be watched– Nokia’s low cost procurement strategy directs the final competition of Sanyo/BYD (and SDI)– MOT’s seeking reliable and high technology is possible to cut Chinese, also gives big impact on

JP mid-3 (SGS/Maxell/NEC)• 18650 business is really good, but the high capacity must be supported by the

new safety technology– 2.6Ah shift is slower than that of 2.0-2.4Ah due to the Sony’s recall and Sanyo’s incomplete

product– Limited mobile Notebook starts to employ 2.8Ah (High V, Sanyo/SDI/LGC) from mid-07 and

demands more of 2.9Ah (Low V cut, MBI)…adjusts the power management for both solutions– Growing demand for NBPC and PT will drive the shortage of supply again, even though Sanyo,

SDI and MBI make new line installations


2-1 Equipment market is really active

• Fig.4 Portable device market trends

0100200300400500600700800900

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OthersSonyDigitalway/mpioAigoSamsungReigncom/iriverCreativeApple

2-2 Demand situation remains good

• By the gradual stabilization of demand parameter of NBPC/Cellular, LIB demand increase for 2 big applications is almost proportional toequipment unit growth

– NBPC 6.5cells/pack, 1.15packs/unit– Cellular 1.2packs/unit

• Growth of PT-LIB is much more than expected• Fig.5 LIB shipment volume by application

229 339 429 440 557 602513

769970 1041

1203 13161

420

73117

0200400600800

100012001400160018002000220024002600

02CY 03CY 04CY 05CY 06CY 07CY

LIB

dem

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ion

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/CY Others

PTGameDSCPDAAudioCamcorderPHSCellularNBPC


2-3 Biz success depends on the big users

• Nokia/MOT share 27% of total LIB demand• Avoiding Sony for NBPC 18650??• Fig.6 LIB supplier-big user matrix (07CY prediction)

Total Pr/Laminate Nokia MOT SEC SEMC LGE BenQ Cellular 6 total OthersSanyo 588.0 358.0 140.3 78.0 24.0 - 18.0 1.0 261.3 96.7Sony 358.5 183.5 50.5 6.0 - 50.0 8.0 6.5 121.0 62.5BYD 120.0 118.0 72.0 20.0 10.0 - - - 102.0 16.0MBI 237.3 87.3 46.5 - - - - - 46.5 40.8SDI 385.8 252.8 96.7 22.5 65.0 13.0 - 4.0 201.2 51.6LGC 215.4 125.4 - - - 35.0 50.0 3.0 88.0 37.4

Lishen 121.5 109.5 - 60.0 10.0 - - 3.5 73.5 36.0E-One 22.5 2.5 - - - - - - 0.0 2.5Maxell 101.7 101.7 - 45.0 30.0 - - 4.0 79.0 22.7NEC 84.9 84.9 - 10.0 1.0 - - 0.5 11.5 73.4SGS 64.2 64.2 - 36.0 - 4.0 - - 40.0 24.2

2,299.8 1,487.8 406.0 277.5 140.0 102.0 76.0 22.5 1,024.0 463.8Units 375.0 267.0 130.5 93.6 71.1 22.2 69%

Blue: Decrease Pack/Unit 1.08 1.04 1.07 1.09 1.07 1.01Yellow: Increase Sanyo Sanyo SDI Sony LGC SonyRed: New M/S 35% 28% 46% 49% 66% 29%

Cy Dell HP Toshiba Acer Lenovo ASUS PC 6 total OthersSanyo 230.0 30.0 12.0 24.0 20.0 28.0 - 114.0 116.0Sony 175.0 10.0 24.0 12.0 8.0 20.0 1.6 75.6 99.4BYD 2.0 - - - - - - 0.0 2.0MBI 150.0 15.0 8.0 37.0 36.0 0.3 - 96.3 53.7SDI 133.0 34.0 41.0 - 6.0 - 22.0 103.0 30.0LGC 90.0 24.0 39.0 - - - - 63.0 27.0

Lishen 12.0 - - - - - - 0.0 12.0E-One 20.0 - 0.2 - - - - 0.2 19.8

812.0 113.0 124.2 73.0 70.0 48.3 23.6 452.1 359.9Units 15.80 16.00 10.50 10.00 8.30 3.30 56%

LIB ratio 98% 100% 100% 100% 95% 100%Cell/Pack 6.40 6.70 6.40 6.20 6.00 6.50

07CY Million cells/CY

07CY Million cells/CY


2-4 What is the goal of Nokia/MOT?

• Fig.7 Nokia/MOT’s cell vendor share trend

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

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2-5 Is 18650 biz promising?

• 2.0Ah still demanded for NBPC-LE: Sanyo Y, Sony G5…price competition is hard

• 2.6Ah shift is not so fast…but the launch of 2.8Ah soon (of course price is good=high)

• Fig.8 LIB 18650 cell demand/supply

0

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2.8Ah2.6Ah2.4Ah2.2Ah2.0Ah1.8Ah1.6AhMax outputD indicator

18650 Design capacity(M cells/M) 1Q 06 2Q 06 3Q 06 4Q 06 1Q 07 2Q 07 3Q 07 4Q 07Sanyo 16.0 16.0 20.5 20.8 20.8 20.8 25.3 29.8SDI 9.0 9.0 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5 14.5 14.5Sony 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5MBI 10.5 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 14.5 14.5LGC 9.0 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 10.5 10.5Design capacity total 61.0 63.0 70.0 70.3 70.3 70.3 81.3 85.8

Plus 15.5M18650 Max output

(M cells/M) 1Q 06 2Q 06 3Q 06 4Q 06 1Q 07 2Q 07 3Q 07 4Q 07Sanyo 15.2 15.2 17.9 19.8 19.8 19.8 22.5 26.7SDI 8.6 8.6 9.8 10.9 10.9 10.9 12.4 13.8Sony 15.7 15.7 15.7 15.7 15.7 15.7 15.7 15.7MBI 10.0 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.4 12.2 12.9LGC 8.6 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 10.0 10.0Max output total 58.0 59.9 63.8 66.8 66.8 66.8 72.7 79.1

Plus 12.3M18650 shipment result

(M cells/M) 1Q 06 2Q 06 3Q 06 4Q 06 1Q 07 2Q 07 3Q 07 4Q 07Sanyo 13.75 13.30 15.23 17.05SDI 7.84 7.90 8.67 8.67Sony 13.24 11.60 13.50 13.20MBI 8.25 7.25 9.15 9.90LGC 4.45 5.60 7.31 8.27Shipment total 47.53 45.65 53.86 57.09NBPC Cy 41.98 39.15 46.94 48.21 42.29 42.76 50.23 56.39PT Cy 4.13 5.17 6.64 8.16 8.35 9.00 10.00 11.50Demand indicator 46.11 44.32 53.58 56.37 50.64 51.76 60.23 67.89D/S 18650 80% 74% 84% 84% 76% 77% 83% 86%

Plus 11.5M


2-6 Who is the key player for the total NiCd replacement?

• 3S-5S (10.8-18V) light-weight product for existing HE segment• 7-10S (28-36V) high-voltage product to create new segment replacing

AC or Air powered tools• Dewalt successfully launched LiFePO4 based LIB with A123, the

competitors are ready to follow• Fig.9 LIB shipment volume by supplier/user for PT (06Q4)


0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

Bosch 18650VT

B&D 18650VT

Dewalt 26650M1

Dewalt 26650V

Dewalt 18650V/W

Makita 18650V

Hitachi 26650V

Hitachi 18650W

Panasonic 18650W

Panasonic 26650

Ryobi 18650VT

MAX Japan 4Ah Pr

Metabo 18650S

Chervon 18650S

Hilti 18650V/S

Hilti 26650

Regitar 18650

Ferm 18650

Others 18650

Milwaukee 26650

Milwaukee 26700

LIB shipment(K cells/month)

SonyMBISanyoLGCSDIE-OneA123GSY

2-7 Is MBI going to challenge again?

• 3S (Sanyo, SDI and Sony) volume is big enough• Challengers to be watched are MBI, LGC and Maxell• Question mark is the future of Chinese…(except for ATL and BAK?)• Fig.10 LIB shipment volume by supplier

173 221 243 243 343 35993 146 161 187 203 237200309 374 444

504 58857

97132 200

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02CY 03CY 04CY 05CY 06CY 07CY

LIB

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Lami. othersLIB othersLishenE-OneSDILGCBYDMaxellNECSGSSanyoMBIToshibaSony


2-8 Capacity enhancement continues

• 07CY total capacity increase will be 27.6M/M, and the majority is for cylindrical

– Cy 16.1M mainly by the new line of Sanyo, SDI, MBI– Pr 2.0M only by Maxell (no increase at Sanyo or SDI)– Polymer 9.5M mainly by Sony Wuxi expansion (only 1M at LGC)

• Fig.11 LIB cell production capacity (designed=yield & utilization 100%)

020406080

100120140160180200220240260280300

1Q 06 2Q 06 3Q 06 4Q 06 1Q 07 2Q 07 3Q 07 4Q 07

LIB

cel

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BYDLishenMaxellNECSGSLGCMBISonySDISanyoLamiPrCy


2-9 Problem is the low profitability

• Price competition and Ni/Co metal price situation are tough– Only Sanyo keeps the high level of profit (in spite of the rapid ASP drop)– Even after being No.2, SDI challenge continues for the sake of high margin– Big risks are the accident and recall always

• Fig.12 Profitability and ASP trend of LIB suppliers

-15%-10%

-5%

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2-10 Key is the material again

• Material cost shares 60+ % of LIB business• Fig.13 Cost composition of LIB (for entire business) and Co/Ni price

trend

0%

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3. LIB material and technology

• Three candidates for higher capacity– NCA: MBI, Sony…not bad and improving– High V with NMC and/or Co: Sanyo…in trouble…bad choice?– Si or Sn: MBI with Si, Sony with Sn…not bad and improving

• Heat resistance Layer for safer design– Ceramic coat on Graphite or PE: MBI, LGC (but just for cylindrical?)– Heat resistance polymer on PE: Sanyo

• More safety technologies to come

• PT cell technology for power and low cost– Fine particle size and good conductor: Sony’s NCA/LiMn2O4 , A123’s LiFePO4


3-1 xxx Million US$ loss is possible

• Lithium increase in a cell…difficult to kill LIB by IC/PTC/CID/Separator SD and avoid thermal run away

• Too much cost saving…sometimes neglecting minimum quality level• Fig.14 Number of reports of LIB accident

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C: At end user-recallB: At OEMA: At cell manufacturersNBPC related

Significance of trouble is more

notable

Note) 1 example includesMitsubishi Electric Cellular D902i D06 battery pack recall announced on 2006/12/7(Objective pack 1.3million, 18 abnormal heating reported including 1 explosion), so Sony’s recall at Dell is also only 1 example count


3-2 Who will be the next to have issues on 2.8Ah?

• Sony got troubles with 2.4/2.55Ah, Sanyo is struggling with 2.6Ah and NMC/Co 4.33-4.38V T series (prismatic)

• High V or Low V cut…it does not matter for the equipment• Does MBI choose and improve the right technologies? NCA, Si and HRL• Fig.15 Roadmap of 18650 cells

Current CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10Sanyo 2.6Ah 2.8Ah 3.0Ah

4.2-3.0V 4.35-3.0V 4.35-2.5VCo NMC/Co NMC/CoG G Si

Sony 2.6Ah 2.8Ah 3.0Ah4.2-3.0V 4.2-3.0V 4.2-2.5V

NCA/NCM NCA/NCM NCA/NCMG G SnCoC?

MBI 2.9Ah 3.2Ah 3.6Ah4.2-2.5V 4.2-2.5V 4.2-2.0V

NCA NCA NCAG G SiO2-Si

SDI 2.6Ah 2.8Ah 3.0Ah 3.2Ah4.2-3.0V 4.35-3.0V 4.35-3.0V 4.35-2.5V

Co Co NMC NMCG G G Si type

LGC 2.6Ah 2.8Ah 3.0Ah 3.2Ah4.2-3.0V 4.35-3.0V 4.35-3.0V 4.35-2.5V

Co NMC NMC NMCG G G Si type


3-3 MBI is appealing and appealing

• Latest NCA 2.9Ah-18650– Stable NCA with over 10 years development– HRL by good Al2O3/binder/coating technology– New Separator with Al2O3/Aramid combination on PE

• 3.6Ah in 09CY is possible– By good Si type electrode combined with special substrate and binder

• Fig.16 MBI’s HRL and cross-section of electrodes

0%20%40%60%80%

100%

2Q07

3Q07

4Q07

1Q08P

ortio

n in

MB

I Cy

LIB HRL type Normal

23µAl2O3-Aramid layer

Sumitomo Chemical separator

PE layerAl2O3 layer

Al2O3-Aramid layerSumitomo Chemical separator

PE layer

Outside of rollDirect coating of Al2O3 4µ

Anode MPG, approx. 150µ (9µ Cu foil, coated both sides)

Direct coating of Al2O3 4µ

Cathode NCA, approx. 130µ (18µ Al foil, coated both sides)

Al2O3 layer


3-4 Hot material 1: Cathode

• New suppliers play important roles

– NMC: Tanaka and Nichia– NCA: Toda and Sumitomo– LiMn2O4: Nikki, Nichia and

TORONOX– LiFePO4: A123, Phostech/Sud-

Chemie and Sony• KFS as active material supplier

– Holding precursors– Hedging metal price change– Lowering process cost

• KFS of material itself– Combined with good binder and

conductor (even with additive)– Good coating technology

• Fig.17 Cathode active material supply for LIB (07CY forecast, total 26062ton) 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000

Nichia Corp.

Umicore Korea

Nippon Chemical Industrial

Seimi Chemical

Seido Chemical

Toda Kogyo

Sumitomo Metal Mining

FMC Lithium

Chinese Local

Cell Maker In-house

Tanaka Chemical

Toda Kogyo

Nichia Corp.

Seimi Chemical

Mitsubishi Chemical

Umicore Korea

Cell Maker In-house

Toda Kogyo

Sumitomo Metal Mining

Seimi Chemical

JFE Mineral

Nikki Chemical

Nichia Corp.

Mitsui Mining

Nippon Denko

TORONOX

Mitsui Zosen

Nippon Chemical Industrial

Phostech/Sud-Chemie

A123Systems

Cathode active material (Ton/CY)

Sanyo SonyMBI SDILGC BYDLishen SGSNEC MaxellE-One Others

LiCoO2

NMC

NCA/NCM

LiMn2O4

LiFePO4


3-5 Hot material 2: Separator

• Unique industry: No competition for the last 15 years

– Tonen mechanical strength: Sony, SDI, LGC, SGS

– Asahi high permeability: Sanyo, Maxell– Dry type low heat shrinkage and cost: MBI,

NEC, Chinese and HEV• Required new feature 1: High heat

resistance by ceramic or polymer– MBI’s HRL– LGC’s ceramic coating on common

membrane– Sanyo’s xx coating and Asahi’s new

membrane• Required new feature 2: Stabilization

layer for NCA– Sumitomo’s new membrane for MBI

• Chance has come for the new comers– but the experience and know-how of big 3 are

strong, and High V and Si type are OK by the modification of existing separator

• Fig.18 Separator supply for LIB (07CY forecast, total 214M square meters)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Asahi KaseiChemicals

Celgard

Tonen ChemicalNasu

Ube Industries

SumitomoChemical

Mitsui Chemical

Entek

SK

Separator(Million m2CY)

SanyoSonyMBISDILGCBYDLishenSGSNECMaxellE-OneBAKOthers


4. Small Fuel Cell impact on portable applications

• For micro FC, LIB is still expensive and energy density is low – The latest 2.9Ah-18650 from MBI has 600+Wh/l and 3.6Ah-18650 will be available in

09CY with 700Wh/l (cell level)– But the most available product for NBPC now is 2.4Ah-2.6Ah and 6-cell pack energy

density is only 289-313Wh/l• Typical NBPC 18650-6cell pack W 20.5cm x D 4.5cm x H 2.0cm (185cc)

– 0.5-0.6US$/Wh for the major application now, LIB 10 years target is achieving 0.20-0.25US$/Wh

• Chance has come if FC provides “safety concern free” or “metal free”• Fig.19 LIB used in major applications (Price and cost US$ as of 07Q1)

PackUS$/Wh

Pack OEMPrice Cell cost FG/PCM

costAssy and

others Pack Wh Cell specification Pack retailprice

Notebook PC Dell 0.56 30.00 14.40 6.00 9.60 53.28 2.4Ah-18650 3S2P 119.00Cellular Nokia 0.60 2.15 1.20 0.50 0.45 3.59 0.97Ah-553350 1S 49.95Cellular Nokia 0.66 1.70 0.95 0.40 0.35 2.59 0.70Ah-553450 1S N/ADSC Canon 1.13 3.17 2.00 0.60 0.57 2.81 0.76Ah-553436 1S 37.50Game Nintendo 0.76 2.80 1.54 0.60 0.66 3.70 1.00Ah-653046 1S N/ABT Motorola 3.24 1.80 1.00 0.50 0.30 0.56 0.15Ah-501230 1S N/APT Hitachi 0.52 23.00 15.67 3.33 4.00 44.40 1.50Ah-18650 4S2P 133.33


5-1 LIB-HEV is almost ready

• LIB shift is confirmed, and the speed of NiMH replacement will be faster due to the current rise of Ni metal price

• Fig.20 Short term forecast of LIB-HEV

0200400600800

100012001400160018002000

CY0

8

CY0

9

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0

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HEV

uni

t (K

units

/CY) DCX

SubaruHyundaiNissanHondaToyotaHEV total

CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 Model kWh Cells Ah Likely Delivery style Cell Pack Cell cost Pack price NoteLikely winners Toyota 30 300 300 400 Prius III or new HEV 0.77 56 3.8 PEVE Pr Pack 70 130 54 100 A bit delaying

Honda 50 100 200 New HEV 0.69 48 4.0 GSY Pr Sanyo Pr Module 80 150 55 104 Alternative choice NiMHNissan 120 240 New HEV 2 models 1.04 80 3.6 NEL Lami LGC Lami Cell 60 100 62 104 Infiniti FR models

Dark horses Hyundai 30 40 100 New HEV 0.76 42 5.0 LGC Lami GSY Pr Pack or module NiMH MBI/GSY module in consideration

Subaru 5 20 50 Legacy 0.62 48 3.6 NEL Lami Pack 70 150 44 93 Possible to be postponedFollowers DCX 5 20 30 Mercedes S-class 1.27 88 4.0 JCS Cy Pack 120 200 152 253 JCS for EU makers from 2012

GM xx AHS2 HVE Cy LGC Lami PackGM Plug-in series HEV Cobasys/A124 Cy JCS Cy Pack Only the concept modelFord yy ? SDI Cy Sanyo Cy Pack Sanyo LIB with VW from 2012

30 390 600 1020Reference Toyota 524 422 509 550 Other NiMH models 1.40 180 6.5 PEVE Pr 50 90 70 126 kWh and JPY/Wh are average

Cell+AFE IC-->Module+ECS-->Pack

CY10 K JPY

LIB models total

LIB-HEV 1000 units CY10 Target JPY/WhLIB suppliersAutomotive makers Next choice


5-2 Ni price rise kills NiMH??


• Prius II replacement battery retail price: JPY 128K• 06Q3 estimated pack cost: over JPY 130K (Ni price JPY 3400/kg)

– 6-cell module (46.6Wh) manufacturing cost JPY61/Wh– 28-module pack (1.31kWh w ECU w/o cooling fan) manufacturing cost JPY101/Wh

• Fig.21 Cost estimation of Prius II NiMH (as of 06Q3)

0

500

1000

1500

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3000

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5-3 1st gen. HEV-LIB is in the 3rd phase

• To achieve JPY60/Wh for cell– Phase 1: X2 power/energy of NiMH– Phase 1.5: Confirm safety and

reliability– Phase 2: Low cost cell design

• Thick and small electrodes• Fast assembly (less number of tab,

stack..)– Phase 3: Material price reduction– Phase 3.5: Low cost module design

including AFE-ECU

• Fig.22 Estimated cost of HEV-LIB cell (100K batteries a year)

Cell size for 3.6Ah 144 x 251 x 3mm

LiMn2O4 cathode energy density mAh/g 75Cathode coating thickness (1 side) micron 30Cathode active material per area (1 side) g/cm2 0.011LiMn2O4 cathode active material amount g 48 18 US$/kgCathode active material area (total) cm2 4,364Number of cathode 2 side layer 10Cathode active material area per 1 stack (2 side layer) cm2 218Example of cathode size 12cm x 20cm (cm2) 240Al cathode current collectror area 12cm x 21cm x 10 (cm2) 2,520 0.3 US$/m2Cathode current collector thickness micron 15Separator thickness micron 25Total thickness of cathode with separator micron 1,250PVDF binder amount (3 wt% of cathode paste) g 1.7Carbon black conductor amount (10wt% of cathode paste) g 5.5 5 US$/kgNMP solution (12wt% PVDF/NMP) g 13.8 10 US$/kg

Carbon anode energy density mAh/g 180Anode coating thickness (1 side) micron 35Anode active material per area (1 side) g/cm2 0.004Carbon anode active material amount g 20 15 US$/kgAnode active material area (total) cm2 5000Number of Anode 2 side layer 11Cathode active material area per 1 stack (2 side layer) cm2 227Example of anode size 12.5cm x 20.5cm (cm2) 256Cu anode current collectror area 12.5cm x 21.5cm x 11 (cm2) 3,146 1.2 US$/m2Anode current collector thickness micron 10Total thickness of anode micron 880PVDF binder amount (3 wt% of anode paste) g 0.6NMP solution (12wt% PVDF/NMP) g 5.2 10 US$/kg

Separator area 13cm x 20.5cm x 20 layer (cm2) 5,330 1.3 US$/m2Formulated electrolyte amount g 40 13 US$/kgLead tab inside (Al for cathode) piece 1 0.01 US$/pieceLead tab inside (Cu for anode) piece 1 0.02 US$/pieceAl/PP package 15cm x 25.5cm x 2 x 1.5 (cm2) 1,186 5 US$/m2Al/PP package thickness micron 150Lead tab outside with tab film set 1 0.85 US$/setLead tab outside (Al for positive) with tab film piece 1 0.4 US$/pieceLead tab outside (Cu for negative) with tab film piece 1 0.45 US$/pieceTotal thickness of cell mm 2.43

Cell manufacturing yield (material utilizaiton & pass rate) Electrode manufacturing process 93.0%Stacking process 98.0%Cell assembly process 98.0%Formation process 96.0%

Material priceMaterial specification and amount 100K batteries

3.6Ah cell material and production cost CostLiMn2O4 cathode 1.01 US$/cellAl foil 0.09 US$/cellCarbon black 0.03 US$/cellCarbon anode 0.35 US$/cellCu foil 0.44 US$/cellPVDF-NMP solution 0.22 US$/cellSeparator 0.75 US$/cellFormulated electrolyte 0.55 US$/cellAl/PP laminate foil 0.63 US$/cellLead tab/tab film 0.94 US$/cell1 cell material cost total (including others unlisted) 5.01 US$/cell1 cell production cost total (Depreciation/factory labor) 2.00 US$/cell1 cell material + production cost 7.01 US$/cellUS$/Wh 0.54JPY/Wh (JPY120/US$) 64.93


6. LIB future market forecast


• IIT’s forecast is always minimum (pessimistic…)– Only visible and confirmed application are included– 16CY: Cellular 1524M unit & NBPC 216M unit– Wh base: 06CY 10659Mega Wh 16CY 31299Mega Wh

• Fig.23 Long-term demand forecast of LIB (Portable and HEV)

Note) Latest forecast revised in February, 2007

0500

100015002000250030003500400045005000

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OthersBTGameMP3CAMDSCPTNBPCCellular

Documents

Worldwide Market Update on NiMH, Li Ion and Polymer … · · 2013-05-21Worldwide Market Update on NiMH, Li Ion and Polymer Batteries for Portable Applications and HEVS ... WW Secondary