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WORLD WIDE UNIVERSITIES NETWORK

Feeding the Masses:

China-Latin America Agriculture Connections Through Time

ROLE AND VIEWS OF ARGENTINA, BRAZIL, PARAGUAY

AND URUGUAY ON GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY

Marcelo Regúnaga

Chicago, May 2014

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GROUP OF PRODUCING COUNTRIES FROM THE SOUTHERN CONE

The following institutions participated in the project design and implementation

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GROUP OF PRODUCING COUNTRIES FROM THE SOUTHERN CONEInstitutions that joined

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THE REGION INTENDS TO SHARE ITS VIEWS ON FOOD SECURITY

AND NATURAL RESOURCES SUSTAINABILITY,

TO BETTER ADDRESS THE WORLD FOOD NEEDS IN A SUSTAINABLE WAY

BASED ON THE REGION’S:

Natural resources endowment and human capital available

Proven track record of innovation and growth

Efficient and competitive business models

Environmentally-friendly production systems

High potential growth of production and exports

5Source: Van der Mensbrugghe FAO, 2012. IADB-CIAT Seminar

THE REGIONS’ NATURAL RESOURCES ENDOWMENT: LAND

Additional arable land which could be in use in 2050 in selected regions (million ha)

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THE REGIONS’ NATURAL RESOURCES ENDOWMENT: WATER

Annual renewable water resources per year and per capita (thousands cubic meters)

Source: World Bank, LAC unit, 2012

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SOUTH AMERICA HAS A PROVEN TRACK RECORD OF INNOVATION

AND FOOD PRODUCTION GROWTH DURING THE LAST TWO DECADES

Total agricultural products’ annual per capita growth in selected regions

Regions 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

World 0,6 0,6 0,6 0,8 1,0

Latin America-Caribbean 0,4 0,7 0,4 1,5 1,8

USA + Canada 0,8 1,7 0,0 1,3 0,4

European Union 1,1 1,8 0,4 -0,2 -0,7

Australia + New Zealand 1,4 0,7 -0.4 1,9 -1,3

Asia 0,9 0,8 2,0 2,5 1,8

Africa 0,7 -1,2 0,1 0,8 0,6

Source: Diaz Bonilla, E. et al.,with FAOSTAT data. IADB-CIAT Seminar (2012) ,

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THE REGION’S PRODUCTION SYSTEMS AND BUSINESS MODELS

ARE EFFICIENT AND ENVIRONMENTALLY FRIENDLY

Efficient business models: Quick adoption of innovations without need of subsidies. Networks, scale, specialization within the steps of the value chains

Environmentally-friendly production systems:

The no-till strategy has proven to be a low input sustainable production

strategy, allowing an efficient use of water available and improving soil

conditions, increasing productivity, with low impact on global warming

Alternative to high intensive production systems and to other unrealistic “greening agriculture” proposals

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SUSTAINABLE PRODUCTION: NO TILL STRATEGY IN SOUTH AMERICA

Corn after wheat. Low use of energy and inputs.

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NON SUSTAINABLE INTENSIVE AGRICULTURE IN EUROPE

(Italy:Tuscany)High use of energy and chemicals; deterioration of soils and ground water

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NEXT DECADE PROJECTED PRODUCTION GROWTH RATES FOR THE REGION ARE SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER THAN OCDE-FAO PROJECTIONS

FOR THE WORLD (annual % growth rates)

And regional production estimates could grow substantially more than baseline projections

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REGIONAL EXPORTS’ GROWTH RATE PROJECTIONS FOR NEXT DECADE

ARE SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER THAN PROJECTED AVERAGE WORLD TRADE

GROWTH (annual % growth rates)

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OTHER SOURCES CONFIRM THE RELEVANCE OF REGIONAL NET

EXPORTS’ GROWTH IN FUTURE WORLD TRADE

(forecasts for selected regions)

Source: Van der Mensbrugghe, D. FAO. IADB and CIAT Seminar, 2012.

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SOYBEANS TRADE: INCREASE IN THE PARTICIPATION OF ABPU

(1991-2010 data and forecasts for 2020)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1991 -1993 2001 - 2003 2011 - 2013 2018 -2020

Argentina

Brasil

South America

USA

Source: FAO, FAPRI, and our estimates

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SOYBEAN OIL TRADE: INCREASE IN THE PARTICIPATION OF ABPU

(1991-2010 data and forecasts for 2020)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

1991 -1993 2001 - 2003 2011 - 2013 2018 -2020

Argentina

Brasil

South America

USA

Source: FAO, FAPRI, and our estimates

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SOYBEANS: ARGENTINA AND BRAZIL COULD PROVIDE ALL CHINESE FUTURE IMPORTS

(1991-2010 data and forecasts for 2020)

Millones de toneladas – promedios anuales de exportación e importación

Source: FAO, FAPRI, and our estimates

0,00

10,00

20,00

30,00

40,00

50,00

60,00

70,00

80,00

90,00

1991-93 2001-2003 2011-2013 2018-2020

Argentina

Brazil

South America

China

Million tons per year– exports and imports

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SOYBEAN OIL: ARGENTINA AND BRAZIL COULD PROVIDE ALL CHINESE FUTURE IMPORTS

(1991-2010 data and forecasts for 2020)

Millones de toneladas – promedios anuales de exportación e importación

Source: FAO, FAPRI, and our estimates

Million tons per year– exports and imports

0,00

1,00

2,00

3,00

4,00

5,00

6,00

7,00

8,00

9,00

10,00

1991 -1993 2001-2003 2011-2013 2018-2020

Argentina

Brasil

South America

China

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REGIONAL VIEWS AND PERSPECTIVES:

KEY ISSUES FOR THE INTERNATIONAL AGENDA ON FOOD SECURITY

AND NATURAL RESOURCES SUSTAINABILITY

1. Strenghtening world agricultural R&D aimed at promoting productivity increases and a more efficient and sustainable use of natural resources. Review of international cooperation strategies

2. Technical assistance to developing countries, including improved North-South and South –South cooperation. New approaches

3. Increased investment in infrastructure and in innovation along the value chains to reduce post-harvest losses and waste. International cooperation

4. Rational expansion to new agricultural areas with sustainable production models (no till strategy)

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REGIONAL VIEWS AND PERSPECTIVES:

KEY ISSUES FOR THE INTERNATIONAL AGENDA ON FOOD SECURITY

AND NATURAL RESOURCES SUSTAINABILITY (cont)

5. Elimination of all barriers to trade. The risk of new non tariff

barriers, such as labor and environment restrictions and other

private standards

6. Sound economic policies in developing countries

7. Market development: improvement of price formation mechanisms

in spot and future markets, particularly in developing countries

8. Regional specificities of biofuels production

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GPS is a project that brings together non-public organizations and renowned personalities from the agro industrial sector in Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay (ABPU), the largest net exporters of primary foods in the world.

 GPS  was established with the following goals:

Be a forum of thought of and proposals for the consolidation, development and evolution of the ABPU region in the agro-industrial sector

Be an active participant as a non-public organization at forums where food security, global governance, production standards, and trade regulations issues are discussed, to state our position on these issues

Implement, disseminate, and strengthen sustainable use of and improved management of natural resources, with special care on environmental and social factors

Promote joint efforts and integration of production and trade among the four member countries

Work together with other organizations willing to participate in this program 

ABOUT GROUP OF PRODUCING COUNTRIES FROM THE SOUTHERN CONE

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