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10/22/2015
1
World Wheat Market Situation and Outlook 2015/16
8th Session of the AMIS Global Food Market Information Group1
Eric Willems
DG Agriculture, European Commission
EIGHTH SESSION OF THE AMIS GLOBAL FOOD MARKET INFORMATION GROUP
Milan, Expo 2015 Milan
19‐20 October 2015
World Wheat Supply & Demand
8th Session of the AMIS Global Food Market Information Group
• Production reach new record• Trade falls in 2015/16 • Inventories increase to a 13‐year high
2
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Wheat Production• Significant production declines in
Argentina, Canada, EU and India, mostly driven by unfavorable weather, more than offsetting good prospects in Australia and larger crops in Turkey, Ukraine and USA
• China’s wheat production above last year’s record, supported by increased yield and planting area
8th Session of the AMIS Global Food Market Information Group 3
Wheat conditions for AMIS countries as of September 28th
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Feed wheat utilization: to grow by 4 percent in 2015/16
Wheat stocks: remaining high in 2015/16 – up marginally from 2014/15
8th Session of the AMIS Global Food Market Information Group 5
Production in selected major
World Wheat trade in 2015/16 (July/June)
EU to export less after record sales in 2014/15exporters 2014/15
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Wheat supply* in selected importing i
Wheat trade in 2015/16 (July/June)
Higher supplies leading to reduced icountries imports
8th Session of the AMIS Global Food Market Information Group 7
* Supply = carryover stocks from 2014/15 + production in 2015
Wheat export price
(US No.2 H.W. Gulf)
CBOT wheat futures for December 2015 delivery
8th Session of the AMIS Global Food Market Information Group 8
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Wheat Forward CurveWheat forward curves continue to reflect poor export outlook and ample supplies
CFTC Commitments of Traders ‐Major Categories Net Length as percentage of Open Interest
8th Session of the AMIS Global Food Market Information Group 9
Managed money increased its net short position in wheat in September
A focus on EU soft & durumWheat
8th Session of the AMIS Global Food Market Information Group 10
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EU‐28 Wheat Production
160
Million tonnes
0
40
80
120
160
8th Session of the AMIS Global Food Market Information Group
0
2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15
estim.
2015/16
f'cast
durum wheat soft wheatSource : European Commission
Denmark
Hungary
Spain
Italy
Romania
Poland
United Kingdom
Germany
France
Croatia
Finland
Netherlands
Greece
Latvia
Austria
Belgium
Slovakia
Sweden
Lithuania
Czech Republic
Bulgaria
Denmark
Soft wheat
8th Session of the AMIS Global Food Market Information Group 12
0 20 40
Malta
Cyprus
Luxembourg
Portugal
Slovenia
Estonia
Ireland
Croatia Soft wheat
Durum wheat
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Wheat Production for the 8 major exporters
153
60 5960
80
100
120
140
160
8th Session of the AMIS Global Food Market Information Group 13
26 26 2614 11
0
20
40
EU Russia USA Canada Australia Ukraine Kazakhstan Argentina
2011 2012 2013 2014(estim.) 2015(f'cast)Source: IGC September '15 report / European Commission
EU‐28 Balance Sheet
2014‐15 2015‐16 2014‐15 2015‐16 2014‐15 2015‐16
estim. f'cast estim. f'cast estim. f'cast
(Million tonnes)
Durum wheatSoft wheat All Wheat
Change:
2015/16
over
2014/15
Change:
2015/16
over
2014/15
Change:
2015/16
over
2014/15(Million tonnes)
Beginning stocks 9.1 11.0 20% 0.3 0.8 136% 9.4 11.8 25%
Usable production 148.7 144.6 ‐3% 7.6 8.0 5% 156.3 152.5 ‐2%
Import 2.9 3.0 5% 2.8 1.8 ‐36% 5.7 4.8 ‐15%
TOTAL AVAILABILITIES 160.7 158.6 ‐1% 10.7 10.6 ‐1% 171.5 169.2 ‐1%
USE 0.0 0.0
‐ Human 48.0 48.0 0% 8.1 8.1 0% 56.1 56.1 0%
‐ Seed 4.7 4.7 0% 0.4 0.4 0% 5.1 5.1 0%
‐ Industrial 10.5 10.6 1% 0.1 0.1 0% 10.6 10.7 1%
o.w. bioethanol/biofuel 4.4 4.5 3% 4.4 4.5 3%
‐ Animal feed 52.4 52.0 ‐1% 0.1 0.1 0% 52.5 52.1 ‐1%
2014/15 2014/15 2014/15
8th Session of the AMIS Global Food Market Information Group 14
Animal feed 52.4 52.0 1% 0.1 0.1 0% 52.5 52.1 1%
TOTAL USE 115.5 115.3 0% 8.7 8.7 0% 124.2 124.0 0%
Losses (excl on‐farm) 0.9 0.9 0% 0.1 0.1 0% 1.0 1.0 0%
Solde disponible 44.3 42.4 ‐4% 2.0 1.9 ‐7% 46.3 44.3 ‐4%
Export 33.3 27.9 ‐16% 1.2 1.2 2% 34.6 29.1 ‐16%
Ending stocks (31.08.2015) 127.4 7.5 134.8
Ending stocks 11.0 14.5 32% 0.8 0.6 ‐22% 11.8 15.1 28%Source: European Commission
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8
50
60
EU 28 ‐ Cereals exports and imports from 2000/01 to 2014/15including flour and other processed products in grain equivalent
51.7
Wheat imports5.7
Coarse grain imports9.8
Wheat exports34.6
Coarse grain exports17.1
Trade balance
36,2
10
0
10
20
30
40
mio t
EXPORTS
8th Session of the AMIS Global Food Market Information Group 15
30
20
Marketing Year (July‐June)Source: EUROSTAT
15.5IMPORTS
Winter wheat sowing in the EU: calendar vs cumulated rainfall
8th Session of the AMIS Global Food Market Information Group
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Winter wheat sowing in the EU: relative soil moisture vs cumulated rainfall
8th Session of the AMIS Global Food Market Information Group
Thank You
8th Session of the AMIS Global Food Market Information Group 18